Well-Informed-Ravioli — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$709

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

77.6%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$14.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$167

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-19

last 05-13 17:37

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

60% 53% $-709

Other

22% — —

Politics

18% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 42 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (19) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	2	$1.7K	961	961	+0	open	—	05-10 15:26
will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	2	$1.5K	776	776	+0	open	—	03-12 12:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	2	$1.5K	983	983	+0	Up	+$473	05-11 02:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	9	$1.4K	858	858	+0	Down	+$314	05-13 17:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	2	$1.2K	750	750	+0	Up	+$243	05-10 15:46
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	3	$1.1K	684	684	+0	open	—	02-27 11:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	8	$800	1,722	0	+1,722	Up	$-800	05-13 17:30
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	1	$748	859	0	+859	open	—	03-12 15:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	3	$652	591	358	+233	Down	+$57	05-11 03:36
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	4	$462	601	255	+346	Up	+$12	05-13 16:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	4	$459	301	233	+68	Up	+$3	05-13 16:40
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	2	$415	377	377	+0	open	—	03-02 04:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	4	$400	490	0	+490	Down	+$90	05-13 14:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	4	$400	422	0	+422	Up	$-400	05-13 17:16
iran x israelus conflict ends by march 15	2	$363	714	714	+0	open	—	03-02 05:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	3	$300	1,085	0	+1,085	Up	$-300	05-10 15:36
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	2	$207	133	133	+0	Down	+$7	05-13 16:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	2	$205	142	142	+0	Up	+$5	05-10 16:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	3	$201	740	240	+500	Up	+$16	05-13 16:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	1	$200	541	0	+541	Up	$-200	05-11 03:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	1	$100	217	0	+217	Up	$-100	05-10 16:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	1	$100	147	0	+147	Down	$-100	05-11 03:48
btc updown 5m 1772026500	4	$51	26	26	+0	open	—	02-25 13:40
btc updown 5m 1772030100	2	$23	13	13	+0	open	—	02-25 14:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	3	$15	24	0	+24	Down	$-15	05-13 17:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	1	$10	23	0	+23	Up	$-10	05-11 17:15
spx opens up or down on february 27 2026	1	$10	17	0	+17	open	—	02-26 20:53
btc updown 5m 1772137800	1	$10	11	0	+11	open	—	02-26 20:33
elon musk of tweets february 28 march 2 40 64	2	$9	10	10	+0	open	—	03-02 10:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	1	$5	100	0	+100	Up	$-5	05-13 17:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-13 17:37:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0x49db65…
05-13 17:37:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0xd7e38f…
05-13 17:37:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0xcbb303…
05-13 17:30:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	BUY	253	40¢	$100	0x6112ba…
05-13 17:30:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	BUY	249	40¢	$100	0x34a66f…
05-13 17:30:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	BUY	222	45¢	$100	0x338960…
05-13 17:30:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	BUY	201	50¢	$100	0x88ea38…
05-13 17:30:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	BUY	200	50¢	$100	0xf912cc…
05-13 17:30:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	BUY	195	51¢	$100	0x000a35…
05-13 17:30:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	BUY	202	49¢	$100	0xf01516…
05-13 17:30:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	BUY	200	50¢	$100	0x49adc6…
05-13 17:25:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Down	SELL	858	99¢	$849	0x52c477…
05-13 17:20:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Down	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x095464…
05-13 17:20:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Down	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0xc87933…
05-13 17:20:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Down	BUY	161	62¢	$100	0xc94ed9…
05-13 17:20:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Down	BUY	40	62¢	$25	0x63be74…
05-13 17:20:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Down	BUY	159	63¢	$100	0x47db6f…
05-13 17:20:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Down	BUY	161	62¢	$100	0x04fe90…
05-13 17:20:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Down	BUY	158	63¢	$100	0xbfd5ea…
05-13 17:20:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Down	BUY	161	62¢	$100	0x0737ae…
05-13 17:16:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Down	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0xd16924…
05-13 17:16:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Down	BUY	106	95¢	$100	0xc64ae6…
05-13 17:16:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Down	BUY	106	94¢	$100	0x1847f4…
05-13 17:16:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Down	BUY	106	94¢	$100	0xba9b19…
05-13 17:00:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Down	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x8dc246…
05-13 16:59:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	500	5¢	$25	0x021460…
05-13 16:58:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	SELL	240	45¢	$109	0x8b1dae…
05-13 16:56:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	240	28¢	$68	0x049932…
05-13 16:51:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	SELL	133	80¢	$107	0x377ae1…
05-13 16:51:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	BUY	133	75¢	$100	0x97f0c3…
05-13 16:48:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Down	BUY	346	7¢	$25	0x56b5c7…
05-13 16:47:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	SELL	255	93¢	$237	0xce849b…
05-13 16:47:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	BUY	122	82¢	$100	0x40ccbd…
05-13 16:47:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	BUY	133	75¢	$100	0x2758cd…
05-13 16:40:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	SELL	233	99¢	$231	0xaef74b…
05-13 16:39:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Down	BUY	68	41¢	$28	0xfa7c24…
05-13 16:39:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	117	86¢	$100	0x880a0a…
05-13 16:39:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	116	86¢	$100	0x1f0fea…
05-13 14:01:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	123	81¢	$100	0x7604b1…
05-13 14:01:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	121	83¢	$100	0x80e61a…
05-13 14:01:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	120	83¢	$100	0xc69c5c…
05-13 14:01:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	125	80¢	$100	0x49e6d1…
05-11 17:15:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Down	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0x43727f…
05-11 03:48:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Up	BUY	147	68¢	$100	0xac4a89…
05-11 03:36:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Down	SELL	358	99¢	$355	0xe268ea…
05-11 03:34:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Down	BUY	358	56¢	$200	0xf1898c…
05-11 03:34:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Up	BUY	233	42¢	$97	0xccdd01…
05-11 03:15:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Down	BUY	541	37¢	$200	0xb0437d…
05-11 02:56:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Up	SELL	983	99¢	$973	0x84a10f…
05-11 02:54:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Up	BUY	983	51¢	$500	0x62223f…
05-10 16:07:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Down	BUY	217	46¢	$100	0x1c622e…
05-10 16:02:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Up	SELL	142	74¢	$105	0x3a1d0f…
05-10 16:01:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Up	BUY	142	70¢	$100	0xd41533…
05-10 15:46:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Up	SELL	750	99¢	$743	0xd3fb63…
05-10 15:44:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Up	BUY	750	67¢	$500	0x78980a…
05-10 15:36:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	BUY	565	31¢	$173	0xe77700…
05-10 15:36:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	BUY	24	36¢	$9	0xc3c0a0…
05-10 15:36:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	BUY	497	24¢	$118	0x77a1a8…
05-10 15:26:00	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	No	SELL	961	90¢	$865	0x5fdbe8…
05-08 02:55:15	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	No	BUY	961	89¢	$855	0x7b78fc…
03-12 15:35:17	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	Yes	BUY	859	87¢	$748	0xe8daa9…
03-12 12:45:25	will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	No	SELL	776	96¢	$748	0x73143f…
03-12 05:51:41	will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	No	BUY	776	96¢	$746	0x786a1d…
03-02 13:31:21	elon musk of tweets february 28 march 2 65 89	Yes	SELL	3	8¢	$0	0x9111be…
03-02 13:31:13	elon musk of tweets february 28 march 2 115 139	Yes	SELL	7	0¢	$0	0x9c0415…
03-02 10:29:37	elon musk of tweets february 28 march 2 40 64	Yes	SELL	10	84¢	$8	0xac8077…
03-02 05:43:29	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 15	Yes	SELL	714	23¢	$163	0x3ea4dc…
03-02 04:21:09	iran x israelus conflict ends by march 15	Yes	BUY	714	28¢	$200	0x5f6ecb…
03-02 04:19:39	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	Yes	SELL	377	57¢	$215	0xe7e1ed…
03-01 20:39:09	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	Yes	BUY	377	53¢	$200	0xf16908…
02-27 11:39:33	us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	No	SELL	634	83¢	$526	0x5b45a5…
02-26 20:53:18	spx opens up or down on february 27 2026	Up	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0xa2f4b4…
02-26 20:48:06	btc updown 5m 1772138700	Down	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x926589…
02-26 20:41:08	elon musk of tweets february 28 march 2 0 39	Yes	BUY	29	3¢	$1	0x392b40…
02-26 20:40:50	elon musk of tweets february 28 march 2 115 139	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xd623d2…
02-26 20:40:42	elon musk of tweets february 28 march 2 65 89	Yes	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xb39e23…
02-26 20:40:30	elon musk of tweets february 28 march 2 40 64	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x9f7ada…
02-26 20:33:20	btc updown 5m 1772137800	Down	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x9ccc65…
02-25 14:39:34	btc updown 5m 1772030100	Down	SELL	13	99¢	$13	0x478647…
02-25 14:36:22	btc updown 5m 1772030100	Down	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0x0e21bd…
02-25 14:34:28	btc updown 5m 1772029800	Up	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0x4f5ae4…
02-25 13:40:26	btc updown 5m 1772026500	Up	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0x11a2f5…
02-25 13:38:28	btc updown 5m 1772026500	Up	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x1ebafe…
02-25 13:38:12	btc updown 5m 1772026500	Up	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xdd5ccc…
02-25 13:37:36	btc updown 5m 1772026500	Up	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xd88ef6…
02-25 13:37:06	us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	No	SELL	50	89¢	$44	0xcbc7dd…
02-19 12:50:48	us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	No	BUY	684	73¢	$499	0xadd21d…