Grateful-Waistband — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$118

Unrealized P&L

-$13

Hit rate

97.3%

Resolved

Trades

2,728

lifetime

Volume

$265.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$97

Open exposure

$109

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-21 00:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Politics

52% 88% +$101

Other

43% 50% +$16

Crypto

3% — —

Sports

1% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

63 active days in 12wk • peak 66 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes		+300	$81	22¢	$66	$-15	06-25 06:01
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+50	$41	86¢	$43	+$2	07-21 00:09

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Trump out as President by April 30?	90	$16.7K	8,056	8,956	-900	open	—	04-14 19:57
elon musk of tweets march 2 march 4 65 89	3	$12.3K	6,183	6,183	+0	open	—	03-04 19:15
netanyahu out by march 31 854	36	$9.4K	5,531	4,381	+1,150	open	—	03-22 15:29
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 200 219	24	$9.0K	4,524	4,524	+0	open	—	04-02 20:55
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	17	$7.1K	3,700	3,700	+0	open	—	04-28 10:09
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	27	$7.0K	7,471	1,718	+5,752	open	—	06-02 10:24
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	19	$6.3K	3,250	3,250	+0	open	—	03-01 08:37
will bhumjaithai party bjt win the most seats in the 2026 thai legislative election	2	$6.2K	3,150	3,150	+0	open	—	02-09 02:28
trump out as president by march 31	28	$5.9K	3,010	3,010	+0	open	—	03-11 18:09
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	27	$5.7K	4,464	1,364	+3,100	open	—	04-26 13:55
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	13	$5.4K	3,430	2,108	+1,322	open	—	03-26 03:36
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	46	$5.0K	2,710	3,010	-300	open	—	04-27 11:09
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	38	$4.7K	2,420	2,420	+0	open	—	06-30 11:31
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	19	$4.6K	4,517	1,010	+3,507	open	—	04-06 13:46
will israels ben gurion airport reopen by march 7 339 656	9	$4.5K	2,042	2,542	-500	open	—	03-10 14:27
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	9	$4.4K	4,400	0	+4,400	open	—	05-18 09:37
elon musk of tweets february 24 march 3 200 219	4	$4.3K	4,464	0	+4,464	open	—	03-03 15:59
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	2	$4.1K	4,116	0	+4,116	open	—	03-10 14:46
elon musk of tweets february 28 march 2 115 139	22	$3.4K	3,422	0	+3,422	open	—	03-02 14:30
us x iran meeting by february 28 2026	9	$3.3K	1,718	1,718	+0	open	—	02-15 17:13
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	25	$3.2K	1,857	1,857	+0	open	—	04-15 17:27
trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 10 2026	15	$3.2K	1,500	1,783	-283	open	—	04-10 23:06
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	80	$3.1K	4,590	4,564	+26	open	—	05-24 10:15
elon musk of tweets february 28 march 2 0 39	4	$3.1K	3,080	0	+3,080	open	—	03-01 22:12
will the us invade iran by march 31	36	$3.0K	1,700	1,700	+0	open	—	03-30 08:10
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	8	$2.9K	2,300	800	+1,500	open	—	02-26 23:59
Will Trump dance today?	3	$2.8K	1,391	1,391	+0	open	—	04-28 04:59
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	31	$2.6K	1,858	2,058	-200	open	—	04-21 19:31
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	21	$2.4K	1,915	1,400	+515	No	+$15	05-07 20:25
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30?	8	$2.4K	1,200	1,200	+0	Yes	+$17	05-03 19:02

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-21 00:09:34	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	88¢	$2	0xe38871…
07-20 19:50:33	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	48	88¢	$42	0x215984…
07-20 18:25:18	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	85¢	$85	0x67d7e1…
07-19 18:46:10	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 18 20260716224448964	Yes	SELL	200	100¢	$200	0xaf1d72…
07-19 16:24:30	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 18 20260716224448964	Yes	BUY	200	100¢	$199	0x430f79…
07-18 21:12:30	will oleksandr syrskyi be out as ukraines commander in chief by july 31 2026 20260716215104507	No	SELL	50	59¢	$30	0xec2fe4…
07-18 17:57:19	will oleksandr syrskyi be out as ukraines commander in chief by july 31 2026 20260716215104507	No	SELL	50	73¢	$36	0x127f04…
07-18 17:19:06	will oleksandr syrskyi be out as ukraines commander in chief by july 31 2026 20260716215104507	No	BUY	50	56¢	$28	0x6fa909…
07-18 15:20:07	will oleksandr syrskyi be out as ukraines commander in chief by july 31 2026 20260716215104507	No	BUY	50	73¢	$36	0x6eb083…
07-01 22:44:17	russia x ukraine ceasefire by october 31 2026	Yes	BUY	200	13¢	$26	0x30138b…
07-01 11:13:20	russia x ukraine ceasefire by october 31 2026	Yes	BUY	100	14¢	$14	0xd63556…
06-30 18:18:26	Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?	No	SELL	476	100¢	$475	0xd4da62…
06-30 12:47:22	Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?	No	BUY	200	100¢	$199	0x077a07…
06-30 12:44:59	Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xc302a9…
06-30 12:43:31	Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?	No	BUY	76	100¢	$76	0xaaebff…
06-30 12:43:25	Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x62517e…
06-30 11:31:02	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	100¢	$200	0xfaf455…
06-29 23:25:38	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	98¢	$197	0xd41a29…
06-29 23:11:49	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	SELL	75	87¢	$65	0x2b7d59…
06-29 16:59:41	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0xbde9e8…
06-29 15:55:55	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	99¢	$198	0x706fb5…
06-29 15:44:49	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xfa12c8…
06-29 15:29:26	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	99¢	$197	0xb739b4…
06-29 15:16:52	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	212	99¢	$210	0x5adc0a…
06-29 14:58:04	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	98¢	$197	0x6b33f3…
06-29 14:53:11	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0x169953…
06-29 14:32:07	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	300	99¢	$297	0x3063d0…
06-29 14:26:58	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	98¢	$197	0x932c1d…
06-29 14:25:44	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	54	99¢	$53	0x84f591…
06-29 14:23:11	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x527d3d…
06-29 14:23:07	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	54	99¢	$53	0xc4a02f…
06-29 12:30:58	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	96¢	$8	0xe1b67c…
06-29 12:27:29	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x91b680…
06-29 12:09:13	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	98¢	$98	0x1a65a4…
06-29 12:07:01	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	184	97¢	$178	0x4d7c76…
06-29 12:02:16	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	97¢	$15	0xb2b78f…
06-29 12:01:02	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	97¢	$97	0x27c6cd…
06-29 11:16:31	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0x709502…
06-29 11:14:56	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x1a9b21…
06-29 10:59:46	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	192	97¢	$186	0x4a3084…
06-29 10:58:46	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	208	96¢	$201	0xadc96a…
06-29 10:57:59	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	104	96¢	$100	0xd10d02…
06-29 10:00:29	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	104	96¢	$100	0x1e3558…
06-29 09:56:59	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0xb033b8…
06-29 09:53:37	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0x6f4851…
06-29 09:51:44	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	70	96¢	$67	0x764255…
06-29 09:51:29	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	96¢	$29	0xe6fdbe…
06-29 09:50:40	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	117	95¢	$112	0x61738b…
06-29 09:45:59	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	83	95¢	$79	0x848de2…
06-29 00:51:56	will the us announce a blockade on iran by june 30 20260622191116911	No	SELL	125	97¢	$121	0xc6b0b8…
06-27 14:52:59	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	300	98¢	$295	0xc91f9a…
06-27 12:55:01	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	7	63¢	$4	0x08301e…
06-27 10:22:16	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	21	65¢	$14	0x8c65f5…
06-27 09:42:05	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	0	64¢	$0	0x112ec7…
06-27 09:40:55	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	16	64¢	$11	0xc9d180…
06-27 09:39:43	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	10	64¢	$6	0xea1670…
06-27 09:37:52	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	5	64¢	$3	0xc3962a…
06-27 09:36:26	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	5	64¢	$3	0x8b5ae8…
06-27 09:35:02	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	10	64¢	$6	0xea43da…
06-27 09:34:44	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	5	64¢	$3	0xe96ca7…
06-27 09:34:41	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	3	64¢	$2	0x0701ff…
06-27 09:34:40	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	2	64¢	$1	0xa38b39…
06-27 09:34:40	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	78	64¢	$50	0x700eb1…
06-27 09:34:38	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	16	64¢	$10	0x706689…
06-27 09:26:22	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	84	63¢	$53	0x98a7c5…
06-27 09:24:49	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	5	63¢	$3	0xde8015…
06-27 09:24:49	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	32	63¢	$20	0x6e61cb…
06-27 09:02:56	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	SELL	75	87¢	$65	0x655b07…
06-27 07:09:17	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	150	85¢	$128	0xe68662…
06-27 00:27:04	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	SELL	100	87¢	$87	0x01c852…
06-26 20:55:40	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by june 30 20260622191733845	No	BUY	100	86¢	$86	0x8748b1…
06-26 20:53:29	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	100	49¢	$49	0x56d0c7…
06-26 19:36:37	fifwc nor fra 2026 06 26 total 8pt5	Under	BUY	111	90¢	$100	0xa471a9…
06-26 16:45:05	will the us announce a blockade on iran by june 30 20260622191116911	No	BUY	150	96¢	$143	0x9b2653…
06-26 16:42:56	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by june 30 20260622191733845	No	BUY	110	95¢	$105	0xe05982…
06-26 16:18:23	Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?	No	SELL	46	78¢	$36	0xfd2eb8…
06-26 14:20:04	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	SELL	100	86¢	$86	0x188aab…
06-26 14:13:18	Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?	No	SELL	15	75¢	$12	0x89ca37…
06-26 12:15:11	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	200	85¢	$170	0x132cbb…
06-26 10:59:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	57	89¢	$50	0x913f35…
06-26 07:33:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	57	85¢	$48	0x687fd3…
06-26 04:51:14	Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?	No	SELL	185	84¢	$155	0x158313…
06-26 04:50:43	Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?	No	SELL	13	84¢	$11	0x4dcc9f…
06-25 11:08:59	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	100	61¢	$61	0x6fd482…
06-25 06:01:19	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	27¢	$81	0x7120a5…
06-23 15:11:35	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	167	100¢	$166	0xb498a1…
06-23 15:10:26	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x024d32…
06-23 15:06:55	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x7aabe4…
06-23 14:23:29	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x4a9d90…
06-23 14:14:40	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x9235be…
06-23 12:50:22	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	200	98¢	$197	0xfb0d68…
06-23 05:27:49	Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?	No	BUY	38	68¢	$26	0x7265f0…
06-23 05:19:55	Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?	No	BUY	62	68¢	$42	0xf030bf…
06-22 23:56:38	Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?	No	BUY	100	82¢	$82	0x6c2f51…
06-22 20:44:17	Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?	No	BUY	53	82¢	$43	0x249824…
06-22 20:43:50	Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?	No	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x5a139c…
06-21 16:33:34	starmer out by june 22 2026	No	SELL	4	38¢	$2	0x47e80e…
06-21 16:33:14	starmer out by june 22 2026	No	SELL	5	38¢	$2	0xd9c154…
06-21 16:31:52	starmer out by june 22 2026	No	SELL	110	38¢	$42	0x33b328…
06-21 16:28:23	starmer out by june 22 2026	No	SELL	5	38¢	$2	0x1a0440…