Steel-Probation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.95K

Unrealized P&L

+$21.7K

Hit rate

28.0%

Resolved

Trades

482

lifetime

Volume

$347.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$720

Open exposure

$127.0K

2 positions

First seen

2026-05-07

last 06-07 15:06

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

67% — —

Other

32% — —

Sports

1% 40% $-1,951

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

19 active days in 12wk • peak 96 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (5) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No		+126,691	$104,315	99¢	$125.8K	+$21,489	06-07 15:06
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No		+2,323	$989	54¢	$1.2K	+$253	06-04 01:35

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	137	$157.4K	185,151	2,007	+183,144	open	—	05-28 23:48
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	53	$104.3K	126,691	0	+126,691	open	—	06-07 15:06
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	239	$73.9K	109,921	0	+109,921	open	—	06-05 23:18
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	5	$6.9K	7,660	0	+7,660	open	—	05-19 16:59
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)	4	$1.6K	3,000	0	+3,000	Baltimore Orioles	$-1,590	05-12 00:08
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	15	$989	2,323	0	+2,323	open	—	06-04 01:35
1H Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)	8	$620	849	849	+0	Pistons	+$26	05-12 01:14
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?	1	$437	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	05-28 21:34
O/U 3.5 Rounds	2	$405	750	0	+750	Over	$-405	05-10 01:22
Spread: Knicks (-10.5)	6	$218	656	656	+0	Knicks	+$19	05-08 23:55
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)	3	$160	127	127	+0	Cavaliers	$-0	05-12 01:14
Spread: Thunder (-11.5)	7	$131	2,000	2,000	+0	open	—	05-19 03:05
Spurs vs. Thunder	1	$74	100	0	+100	open	—	05-19 02:30
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	1	$1	73	0	+73	open	—	05-12 00:36

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-07 15:06:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	4,819	88¢	$4,241	0xc748ce…
06-06 22:09:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	488	85¢	$414	0x3ecb2b…
06-06 21:21:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	36	85¢	$31	0xcb1968…
06-06 21:21:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	42	85¢	$36	0xaca711…
06-06 21:21:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	35	85¢	$30	0x5d8185…
06-06 21:21:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	39	85¢	$33	0x273772…
06-06 21:19:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	45	85¢	$38	0x9ca183…
06-06 21:19:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	43	85¢	$37	0x808813…
06-06 21:19:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	44	85¢	$37	0x6ef0fb…
06-06 21:19:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	36	85¢	$31	0x04e47d…
06-06 21:19:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	150	85¢	$128	0x3df7a2…
06-06 21:10:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	42	85¢	$36	0x295aa8…
06-06 13:20:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	564	86¢	$485	0x9b5c0d…
06-06 05:19:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	477	84¢	$401	0x1de843…
06-06 03:27:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	1,617	84¢	$1,358	0x5f99d9…
06-05 23:18:34	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	303	72¢	$218	0xddfb91…
06-05 23:10:36	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	10,000	72¢	$7,200	0x0185de…
06-05 21:41:12	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	4,696	70¢	$3,287	0x46cdad…
06-05 21:23:42	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	72	70¢	$50	0x8dff39…
06-05 21:20:55	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	333	70¢	$233	0x063519…
06-05 21:15:24	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	17	70¢	$12	0x970e35…
06-05 21:08:19	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	17	70¢	$12	0x01c813…
06-05 21:04:52	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	170	70¢	$119	0x80f178…
06-05 21:03:51	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	2	70¢	$2	0x57af5c…
06-05 21:03:48	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	100	70¢	$70	0x1e2758…
06-05 21:02:51	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	2	70¢	$2	0x538d6a…
06-05 20:58:49	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	83	70¢	$58	0x1a6f18…
06-05 20:58:43	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	83	70¢	$58	0xf4f4a4…
06-05 20:57:40	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	60	70¢	$42	0x3ce801…
06-05 20:57:40	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	16	70¢	$11	0x08d4d8…
06-05 20:57:39	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	60	70¢	$42	0x352bf9…
06-05 20:56:31	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	667	70¢	$467	0xd4ed91…
06-05 20:54:19	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	170	70¢	$119	0xf869b1…
06-05 20:53:33	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	70	70¢	$49	0xe98caf…
06-05 20:52:10	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	60	70¢	$42	0x74d620…
06-05 20:49:27	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	620	70¢	$434	0x9284f6…
06-05 20:47:43	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	100	70¢	$70	0x5ab23c…
06-05 20:46:52	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	140	70¢	$98	0x6d2b31…
06-05 20:34:13	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	33	70¢	$23	0xab15a7…
06-05 20:15:48	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0xcd62ba…
06-05 20:04:40	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	15	70¢	$11	0xfddc15…
06-05 19:35:30	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	33	70¢	$23	0x9ca9bd…
06-05 19:27:16	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	6	70¢	$4	0x586a33…
06-05 19:10:12	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	60	70¢	$42	0x4fbe53…
06-05 19:10:09	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	333	70¢	$233	0xe9532b…
06-05 19:06:15	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	107	70¢	$75	0x3b5b28…
06-05 19:03:13	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x61a1b2…
06-05 19:00:27	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	506	70¢	$354	0x177df7…
06-05 03:50:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	5,000	83¢	$4,150	0x84b6a4…
06-04 22:39:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	35	84¢	$30	0xdcb791…
06-04 22:34:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	12	84¢	$10	0x10fe2e…
06-04 22:31:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	31	84¢	$26	0x0c295b…
06-04 22:06:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0x848df8…
06-04 22:03:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	104	84¢	$87	0xd318df…
06-04 20:25:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	10,973	85¢	$9,327	0x135fd1…
06-04 19:17:31	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	20,000	70¢	$14,000	0x2200a8…
06-04 01:35:01	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	BUY	71	36¢	$26	0x6b1f4e…
06-04 01:24:45	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	BUY	79	36¢	$28	0xae901f…
06-04 01:03:55	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	363	69¢	$250	0x89e176…
06-04 00:56:51	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	20	69¢	$14	0xd4c6f0…
06-04 00:54:01	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	BUY	79	36¢	$28	0xf162db…
06-04 00:50:43	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x61161e…
06-04 00:50:00	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	BUY	7	36¢	$3	0x08c26a…
06-04 00:35:45	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	8	69¢	$6	0xe4cd8d…
06-04 00:23:16	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	BUY	79	36¢	$28	0x915d76…
06-04 00:13:01	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	BUY	79	36¢	$28	0xe04e57…
06-03 23:59:48	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x1e57e5…
06-03 23:56:39	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	65	69¢	$45	0x1f8fd1…
06-03 23:51:22	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	30	69¢	$21	0x304329…
06-03 23:50:21	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0x19d0fe…
06-03 23:45:27	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0xbc14e5…
06-03 23:39:19	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	65	69¢	$45	0xdb30c4…
06-03 23:38:09	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	BUY	528	36¢	$190	0x3343d4…
06-03 23:11:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	247	84¢	$207	0x461c21…
06-03 23:07:22	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0x854130…
06-03 23:03:19	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	22	69¢	$15	0x3d2fb0…
06-03 23:03:18	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	323	69¢	$223	0x20e2a2…
06-03 22:57:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	320	84¢	$269	0x960f19…
06-03 22:50:40	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x5bdad6…
06-03 22:50:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	1,433	84¢	$1,204	0x4a6596…
06-03 22:47:24	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	35	69¢	$24	0xd640b3…
06-03 22:46:43	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	51	69¢	$35	0xde8cfc…
06-03 22:19:12	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	BUY	159	37¢	$59	0x0712e3…
06-03 22:15:54	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	BUY	86	37¢	$32	0xc24cd0…
06-03 22:04:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	29,850	84¢	$25,033	0x5f96ec…
06-03 22:00:15	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x8ecc2d…
06-03 21:59:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	28	82¢	$23	0x688098…
06-03 21:56:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0x62390e…
06-03 21:52:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	25	82¢	$20	0x0f8e48…
06-03 21:51:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	9	82¢	$7	0xe09c98…
06-03 21:49:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	38	82¢	$31	0x308c2e…
06-03 21:44:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	38	82¢	$32	0xb39a6c…
06-03 21:38:15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	245	82¢	$201	0xf46fdd…
06-03 21:38:15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	13	82¢	$11	0xa66154…
06-03 21:38:15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	15	82¢	$12	0x961ff1…
06-03 21:38:15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	44	82¢	$36	0x6ab3da…
06-03 21:17:19	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	1,000	69¢	$690	0xe0600d…
06-03 21:16:39	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	640	69¢	$442	0x671fc4…
06-03 21:09:31	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	37	69¢	$26	0x3c374f…
06-03 21:09:06	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	34	69¢	$24	0x77d314…