Decent-Improvement — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$68

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

80.7%

Resolved

319

Trades

534

lifetime

Volume

$5.83K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

$57

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-10

last 11-03 05:19

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 148 days

Categories

Other

58% 81% -$47

Politics

25% 82% -$14

Crypto

15% 81% -$7

Tech

1% 67% -$1

Sports

0% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

72 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Republicans win Kansas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	No	+20	$19	97¢	$19	+$0	11-01 00:02
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	+20	$19	94¢	$19	$0	11-01 05:00
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5?	No	+20	$19	94¢	$19	$0	11-03 05:19

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?	4	$59	20	40	-20	No	+$0	10-10 11:10
Will Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	2	$39	20	20	+0	No	+$1	08-31 22:19
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?	2	$39	20	20	+0	No	+$1	10-31 05:12
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?	2	$39	20	20	+0	No	+$1	08-28 12:19
Will Alexia Putellas win the 2026 Women's Ballon d'Or?	2	$39	20	20	+0	Yes	+$1	10-26 22:34
Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	2	$39	20	20	+0	Yes	+$1	10-27 05:37
Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	2	$39	20	20	+0	No	+$0	10-31 03:37
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on September 3?	2	$39	20	20	+0	No	+$0	09-02 12:59
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	2	$39	20	20	+0	No	+$0	11-03 01:59
Will the UK Budget include an increase to capital gains tax?	3	$39	20	20	+0	No	+$0	10-28 16:10
Will Noah Wyle – “The Pitt” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding lead actor in a drama series?	2	$39	20	20	+0	Yes	+$0	09-15 00:53
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	3	$39	20	20	+0	No	+$0	09-20 15:09
Will there be between 5 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on September 30?	2	$39	20	20	+0	No	+$0	10-01 13:53
Will “Saturday Night Live” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety series?	4	$39	20	20	+0	No	+$1	09-14 17:46
Will Committee to Protect Journalists win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	3	$39	20	20	+0	No	+$1	10-09 07:06
Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?	2	$39	20	20	+0	Yes	+$0	09-22 02:24
Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	2	$39	20	20	+0	open	—	11-03 04:10
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	2	$39	20	20	+0	Yes	+$0	10-24 17:33
Will "Hope" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 6m and 7m?	3	$39	20	20	+0	No	+$0	09-12 22:21
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 7th Weekend Box Office be less than 9m?	5	$39	20	20	+0	Yes	+$1	09-14 22:29
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	2	$39	20	20	+0	Yes	+$0	10-14 06:37
Will Solana reach $120 in August?	2	$39	20	20	+0	No	+$1	08-31 16:40
Spain accuses Morocco of facilitating Ceuta migrant wave by August 31?	2	$39	20	20	+0	No	+$0	08-31 05:20
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 6th Weekend Box Office be at least 15m?	3	$39	20	20	+0	Yes	+$0	09-05 15:54
Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by October 31?	2	$39	20	20	+0	No	+$1	10-31 01:09
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 20?	2	$39	20	20	+0	Yes	+$1	09-20 17:17
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?	3	$39	20	20	+0	No	+$1	09-11 11:19
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?	2	$39	20	20	+0	No	+$1	10-16 15:33
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 TOUR Championship?	2	$39	20	20	+0	No	+$1	08-29 21:53
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?	2	$39	20	20	+0	No	+$0	11-02 22:52

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-03 05:19:54	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5?	No	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0xa1242e…
11-03 04:10:57	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0xf9334a…
11-03 01:59:39	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0xab0751…
11-03 01:17:01	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	No	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0x81ee91…
11-02 22:52:46	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?	No	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0x2f1758…
11-02 22:18:12	Will Bernie endorse James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x1b0a1f…
11-01 13:02:09	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0x8ef07c…
11-01 12:57:39	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	Yes	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0xf38167…
11-01 06:22:45	US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?	No	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0x69f84b…
11-01 05:00:28	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0xf04790…
11-01 00:02:09	Will Republicans win Kansas, and lose Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0xcb3202…
10-31 23:25:40	Will Bernie endorse James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?	No	BUY	15	95¢	$14	0x4bcb8f…
10-31 19:43:24	Will Bernie endorse James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xcd84a7…
10-31 16:33:27	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?	Yes	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0x446c26…
10-31 12:21:01	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 1?	Yes	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0x897e7e…
10-31 05:12:19	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xdd4152…
10-31 03:37:42	Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0xc00c7d…
10-31 01:09:49	Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by October 31?	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x1c7c7b…
10-30 23:45:19	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 1?	Yes	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0xb17fd1…
10-30 21:47:21	Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0xd6c897…
10-30 19:01:49	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0xf5717b…
10-29 22:55:12	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	20	50¢	$10	0xc5aa8c…
10-29 22:38:18	Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0xbb565d…
10-29 16:08:10	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0xb9f427…
10-29 14:04:41	Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0xa5d824…
10-29 13:54:20	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0x92da32…
10-29 04:06:14	Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by October 31?	No	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0x2deb80…
10-29 04:00:44	Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 32M tonnes at end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0x599e15…
10-29 01:49:05	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0x5be4c4…
10-28 17:59:25	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0x0feb85…
10-28 16:10:55	Will the UK Budget include an increase to capital gains tax?	No	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x4a2b4f…
10-28 15:10:38	Will the UK Budget include an increase to capital gains tax?	No	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0x7a748a…
10-28 10:08:23	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0xb692a3…
10-27 15:43:08	Will the UK Budget include an increase to capital gains tax?	No	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0xb6ec37…
10-27 05:37:51	Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x91a41c…
10-26 23:22:20	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	Yes	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x63cb83…
10-26 22:34:39	Will Alexia Putellas win the 2026 Women's Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xcd70d5…
10-26 18:04:32	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	Yes	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0x3d0365…
10-26 06:06:48	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0x39e224…
10-26 02:39:29	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	Yes	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0xd4eea7…
10-25 04:45:36	Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	Yes	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0x70d771…
10-24 17:33:32	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0x4c449d…
10-24 06:39:30	Will Alexia Putellas win the 2026 Women's Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0x4b40d1…
10-24 00:50:30	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	No	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0x4288c5…
10-23 20:58:59	Will Douglas Ruas win the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial second round by 5%-10%?	No	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0xd71f77…
10-23 15:20:08	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0x845f1f…
10-23 01:54:51	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?	No	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0x7cf2e0…
10-22 19:30:29	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0xd62bb0…
10-21 23:45:03	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0xa21adf…
10-21 07:10:23	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0x0dd82b…
10-20 22:03:50	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?	Yes	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0x4678b4…
10-20 17:12:26	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x3fe8da…
10-19 19:49:39	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?	Yes	BUY	14	95¢	$13	0x5bc913…
10-19 16:17:53	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?	Yes	BUY	6	95¢	$6	0x706562…
10-18 04:52:17	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	Yes	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0xabdec9…
10-18 02:37:53	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	Yes	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0x58dcf4…
10-16 15:33:36	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x5c41da…
10-16 06:59:33	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	Yes	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0x5dee41…
10-16 06:28:18	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 17?	Yes	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x9680c5…
10-16 04:02:33	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	Yes	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0x03b28e…
10-16 04:02:24	Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 15?	No	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0x4d20be…
10-16 00:33:37	Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 15?	No	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x4a3d2c…
10-15 16:54:40	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?	No	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0x0faf9d…
10-15 09:06:46	us x iran ceasefire continues through october 17	Yes	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0xd42aa9…
10-14 06:37:01	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	Yes	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0x6f8c36…
10-13 17:46:19	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	Yes	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0x6d7cf3…
10-13 14:30:59	Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 15?	No	BUY	17	96¢	$17	0x46136d…
10-13 14:28:49	Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 15?	No	BUY	3	96¢	$2	0x9c3497…
10-13 11:42:41	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15?	Yes	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0x7b73ec…
10-13 04:37:29	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0x84a4d5…
10-13 04:02:21	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 15?	Yes	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0x51e4ec…
10-12 12:47:26	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	Yes	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0xdab6d0…
10-12 09:36:19	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 12?	Yes	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0xf45ebc…
10-11 08:03:07	US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 12?	Yes	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0x48ccdc…
10-10 11:10:00	Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?	No	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0xc36796…
10-10 06:16:31	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	Yes	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0xac94c4…
10-09 07:06:49	Will Committee to Protect Journalists win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0xaedcea…
10-08 18:14:05	Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x3bf62a…
10-08 18:13:56	Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x384013…
10-08 16:36:23	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?	Yes	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x2dcc48…
10-07 20:04:56	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?	Yes	BUY	18	96¢	$17	0xdaa192…
10-07 19:39:01	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?	Yes	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0xb7d56f…
10-07 05:01:12	Will Committee to Protect Journalists win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	11	96¢	$11	0x503a38…
10-07 04:57:08	Will Committee to Protect Journalists win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	No	BUY	9	96¢	$8	0xd23cf5…
10-01 13:53:45	Will there be between 5 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on September 30?	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x520718…
10-01 11:21:00	Flávio Bolsonaro participates in debate before first round?	Yes	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x9dbd3e…
10-01 03:14:36	Flávio Bolsonaro participates in debate before first round?	Yes	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0x32ccc3…
09-30 16:47:39	us x iran diplomatic meeting by march 31 2027 20260922	No	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0x30bcd6…
09-29 17:50:57	Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?	No	SELL	15	59¢	$9	0x730b5a…
09-29 17:50:03	Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?	No	SELL	5	62¢	$3	0x879475…
09-29 13:55:18	Will there be between 5 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on September 30?	No	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0x1c67a6…
09-29 07:51:36	Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?	No	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0xf820b7…
09-29 07:47:17	Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?	No	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0xade38c…
09-29 04:07:14	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0xfa16fa…
09-27 07:38:15	will bitget resume withdrawals by september 27 2026	No	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0x697d89…
09-26 06:44:00	will bitget resume withdrawals by september 27 2026	No	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0x3329d2…
09-25 23:15:45	Will “Choosin' Texas” by Ella Langley win Best Country at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?	Yes	BUY	7	97¢	$7	0xd7dcbb…
09-25 23:15:38	Will “Choosin' Texas” by Ella Langley win Best Country at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?	Yes	BUY	13	97¢	$13	0xb6e5d1…
09-25 02:54:30	US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?	Yes	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0xec05c7…
09-23 00:09:56	US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?	Yes	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x516cc4…