Long-Guitar — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$15

Unrealized P&L

-$12

Hit rate

74.0%

Resolved

3,506

Trades

9,658

lifetime

Volume

$255.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$26

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-13

last 10-28 22:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 257 days

Categories

Crypto

59% 51% -$163

Sports

35% 49% -$441

Other

6% 51% +$640

Politics

0% 0% -$50

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

77 active days in 12wk • peak 38 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Lamar Jackson win the 2026 NFL MVP?	Yes		+267	$16	2¢	$4	-$12	10-16 22:52

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	24	$4.7K	5,105	4,697	+408	No	-$3	05-25 17:22
bitcoin up or down march 30 2026 2am et	2	$4.0K	2,034	2,033	+1	Down	+$18	03-30 07:12
bitcoin up or down march 30 2026 1am et	2	$3.9K	1,973	1,972	+1	Down	+$5	03-30 06:22
bitcoin up or down march 29 2026 3pm et	2	$3.8K	1,902	1,902	+0	Down	+$17	03-29 20:36
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4AM ET	4	$3.3K	1,708	1,683	+25	Down	+$58	05-22 09:21
bitcoin up or down march 26 2026 2am et	4	$3.2K	1,638	1,636	+2	Up	+$59	03-26 07:04
nba gsw den 2026 03 29	2	$2.7K	1,346	1,346	+0	Nuggets	+$12	03-30 05:01
bitcoin up or down march 25 2026 6am et	2	$2.6K	1,336	1,336	+0	Up	+$19	03-25 11:08
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-25 10:05 UTC	4	$2.6K	1,346	1,323	+22	Up	+$18	03-25 10:11
nba den mem 2026 01 25 total 225pt5	2	$2.4K	1,250	1,250	+0	Over	+$49	03-19 03:50
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-30 22:00 UTC	1	$2.3K	2,286	0	+2,286	Down	+$23	03-30 22:12
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-30 21:15 UTC	1	$2.3K	2,281	0	+2,281	Up	+$23	03-30 21:23
bitcoin up or down march 30 2026 4am et	1	$2.1K	2,182	0	+2,182	Up	+$32	03-30 08:52
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 19:25 UTC	1	$2.1K	2,156	0	+2,156	Up	+$30	03-30 19:28
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-30 08:00 UTC	1	$2.1K	2,152	0	+2,152	Up	+$43	03-30 08:10
bitcoin up or down march 25 2026 2am et	3	$2.1K	1,071	1,070	+1	Down	+$40	03-25 07:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 07:45 UTC	1	$2.0K	2,115	0	+2,115	Up	+$80	03-30 07:48
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-30 07:15 UTC	1	$2.0K	2,035	0	+2,035	Down	+$4	03-30 07:28
bitcoin up or down march 31 2026 1am et	2	$2.0K	1,020	1,019	+1	Up	+$19	03-31 07:06
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-29 09:45 UTC	1	$2.0K	2,023	0	+2,023	Up	+$40	03-29 09:56
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-30 06:15 UTC	2	$2.0K	2,017	0	+2,017	Down	+$37	03-30 06:26
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-30 05:35 UTC	1	$1.9K	1,989	0	+1,989	Down	+$53	03-30 05:39
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-30 05:15 UTC	2	$1.9K	1,976	0	+1,976	Up	+$45	03-30 05:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	6	$1.8K	1,876	0	+1,876	Up	-$6	05-21 01:13
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-29 22:15 UTC	1	$1.7K	1,762	0	+1,762	Up	+$18	03-29 22:28
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 07:30 UTC	5	$1.7K	1,822	0	+1,822	Down	+$31	03-27 07:33
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-27 08:30 UTC	1	$1.7K	1,775	0	+1,775	Down	+$42	03-27 08:36
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 07:55 UTC	1	$1.7K	1,767	0	+1,767	Down	+$53	03-27 07:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	1	$1.7K	1,726	0	+1,726	Up	+$26	05-20 17:28
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-26 09:30 UTC	1	$1.7K	1,746	0	+1,746	Down	+$54	03-26 09:31

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 22:51:29	Spread: Hawks (-2.5)	Heat	BUY	57	49¢	$28	0x10ae33…
10-23 09:57:20	Will FCV Dender EH win on 2026-10-23?	Yes	BUY	70	43¢	$30	0x2ab180…
10-23 09:54:51	Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-10-23?	Yes	BUY	92	49¢	$45	0xeea4e2…
10-23 01:56:57	Cavaliers vs. 76ers: O/U 237.5	Under	SELL	82	100¢	$82	0xc7aa8b…
10-22 23:11:36	Ducks vs. Devils	Ducks	BUY	76	33¢	$25	0x2ed608…
10-22 21:23:17	Cavaliers vs. 76ers: O/U 237.5	Under	BUY	82	51¢	$42	0x8b3f03…
10-22 08:58:17	Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-10-22?	No	BUY	60	51¢	$31	0x53ef80…
10-22 08:32:26	Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-10-22?	No	BUY	48	52¢	$25	0xb12126…
10-21 02:03:06	Thunder vs. Spurs	Thunder	BUY	91	55¢	$50	0xd8d59b…
10-20 22:53:29	76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 231.5	Under	BUY	98	51¢	$50	0x60e6e2…
10-20 02:01:18	Commanders vs. 49ers: O/U 45.5	Under	BUY	77	52¢	$40	0x282947…
10-20 01:47:17	Spread: 49ers (-17.5)	Commanders	BUY	82	49¢	$40	0x7f31d1…
10-20 00:31:44	Spread: 49ers (-7.5)	49ers	BUY	179	56¢	$100	0xf3eb1b…
10-19 08:35:14	Will Houston Texans win the 2026 AFC South?	Yes	SELL	192	21¢	$40	0xdc65f6…
10-18 23:07:29	Spread: Cowboys (-1.5)	Cowboys	BUY	208	48¢	$100	0x7acb6c…
10-18 18:54:09	Saints vs. Giants	Giants	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x5f9aa5…
10-18 18:53:56	Saints vs. Giants	Giants	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0xf24f13…
10-18 18:53:56	Saints vs. Giants	Giants	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x1ed81b…
10-18 17:29:32	Saints vs. Giants	Saints	BUY	65	31¢	$20	0xc06222…
10-18 16:41:05	Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-10-18?	No	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0xb0cd03…
10-18 14:04:18	Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 2.5	Under	BUY	33	9¢	$3	0x6d20b8…
10-18 14:03:30	Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-10-18?	No	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x23a35a…
10-18 13:20:38	Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: Both Teams to Score	No	BUY	24	41¢	$10	0x3a30ca…
10-18 13:19:27	Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: Both Teams to Score	No	BUY	4	37¢	$2	0x48695a…
10-18 13:18:44	Will Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship?	Yes	SELL	318	14¢	$43	0xe529c3…
10-18 08:20:35	Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-10-18?	Yes	BUY	71	49¢	$35	0x1b2f67…
10-17 09:24:48	Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-10-17?	Yes	BUY	89	56¢	$50	0xa75817…
10-17 00:41:41	Will Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2026 NFC South?	Yes	BUY	98	16¢	$16	0x7dafcf…
10-16 22:52:56	Will Lamar Jackson win the 2026 NFL MVP?	Yes	BUY	267	6¢	$16	0x8eb504…
10-16 22:51:02	Will Houston Texans win the 2026 AFC South?	Yes	BUY	192	16¢	$30	0x720b21…
10-16 08:49:34	Will Dallas Cowboys win the 2026 NFC East?	Yes	SELL	417	43¢	$179	0x47d694…
10-16 00:25:04	Seahawks vs. Broncos	Seahawks	BUY	69	55¢	$38	0x52b560…
10-14 08:35:19	Will Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2026 AFC South?	Yes	SELL	119	75¢	$89	0x1b2950…
10-13 20:17:12	Will FC Internazionale Milano vs. Club Brugge KV end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	74	27¢	$20	0x2ca437…
10-13 08:12:59	Will Denver Broncos win the 2026 AFC West?	Yes	SELL	359	19¢	$69	0x221c00…
10-13 01:12:08	Bills vs. Rams	Rams	BUY	74	47¢	$35	0xf2e136…
10-12 08:16:58	Will Malmo FF win on 2026-10-12?	Yes	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0x7f3086…
10-12 08:14:49	Will Torino FC vs. Udinese Calcio end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	113	31¢	$35	0xc4c8dc…
10-12 08:10:49	Will Malmo FF win on 2026-10-12?	Yes	BUY	98	56¢	$55	0x49562f…
10-11 08:18:16	Will FK Vojvodina Novi Sad win on 2026-10-11?	Yes	BUY	38	52¢	$20	0x88aec7…
10-11 02:39:11	Ducks vs. Flames	Flames	BUY	59	34¢	$20	0x7e990e…
10-11 01:24:26	Lightning vs. Islanders	Lightning	BUY	52	58¢	$30	0xc80eb2…
10-11 01:22:08	Kings vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5	Over	BUY	35	57¢	$20	0xabda0d…
10-11 01:21:57	Kings vs. Golden Knights	Golden Knights	BUY	33	61¢	$20	0x2f4a58…
10-11 01:21:44	Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)	Golden Knights	BUY	53	38¢	$20	0x8672d7…
10-11 01:20:00	Blue Jackets vs. Blues	Blue Jackets	BUY	152	23¢	$35	0x37a051…
10-09 01:47:59	Spread: Cowboys (-6.5)	Buccaneers	BUY	90	50¢	$45	0x9d120d…
10-09 01:47:45	Buccaneers vs. Cowboys: O/U 40.5	Over	BUY	85	53¢	$45	0xb40de7…
10-09 01:47:23	Will Georgia Bulldogs win the 2027 CFP National Championship?	Yes	SELL	579	16¢	$92	0xfd8259…
10-08 21:53:48	Utah vs. Bruins	Utah	BUY	45	55¢	$25	0x16a035…
10-08 21:52:26	Flyers vs. Senators	Senators	BUY	40	63¢	$25	0x70fc18…
10-08 21:52:20	Spread: Senators (-1.5)	Senators	BUY	53	38¢	$20	0x050ff7…
10-08 19:33:51	Will Dallas Cowboys win the 2026 NFC East?	Yes	BUY	417	48¢	$200	0xf8091f…
10-08 19:31:12	Will the Pittsburgh Steelers make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?	No	SELL	336	71¢	$239	0xeeede3…
10-08 19:21:50	Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-10-08?	Yes	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x0aaee4…
10-08 19:21:44	Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-10-08?	Yes	BUY	91	55¢	$50	0xaffd41…
10-07 21:32:57	Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)	Avalanche	BUY	98	41¢	$40	0x4b1ba9…
10-07 21:30:04	Las Vegas Aces vs. Golden State Valkyries	Las Vegas Aces	BUY	85	47¢	$40	0x35576f…
10-07 21:29:40	New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 170.5	Under	BUY	82	49¢	$40	0xb47276…
10-07 20:53:22	Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5	Under	BUY	82	55¢	$45	0x1617c2…
10-07 00:29:11	Spread: Rangers (-1.5)	Islanders	BUY	14	51¢	$7	0x54b934…
10-07 00:28:59	Islanders vs. Rangers	Islanders	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x3a6ead…
10-06 20:06:35	Will Spain win on 2026-10-06?	No	BUY	37	41¢	$15	0x4c839e…
10-06 20:03:23	Wild vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5	Over	BUY	83	48¢	$40	0x0699f9…
10-06 20:00:50	Hurricanes vs. Canadiens	Hurricanes	BUY	73	55¢	$40	0x26cda8…
10-06 19:59:14	Will Scotland win on 2026-10-06?	No	BUY	43	23¢	$10	0x797795…
10-06 08:30:30	Will Kazakhstan vs. Faroe Islands end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	94	32¢	$30	0xc7adeb…
10-06 08:26:40	Will Scotland win on 2026-10-06?	Yes	BUY	104	53¢	$55	0xfd4cc7…
10-06 02:52:37	Falcons vs. Saints: O/U 58.5	Under	BUY	54	56¢	$30	0x13820d…
10-06 01:47:35	Falcons vs. Saints: O/U 62.5	Over	BUY	53	38¢	$20	0x440cfa…
10-05 23:22:11	Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians	Cleveland Guardians	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0xed082b…
10-05 23:21:05	Spread: Stars (-1.5)	Stars	BUY	71	42¢	$30	0xce6a07…
10-05 22:55:11	Spread: Lightning (-1.5)	Lightning	BUY	67	45¢	$30	0x81fc76…
10-05 22:53:50	Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians	Chicago White Sox	BUY	88	29¢	$25	0xb081fc…
10-05 20:15:02	Will Italy win on 2026-10-05?	No	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x0f6416…
10-05 20:14:29	Will Montenegro win on 2026-10-05?	Yes	BUY	39	38¢	$15	0xc8a97b…
10-05 20:13:41	Will Kongsvinger IL Toppfotball win on 2026-10-05?	Yes	SELL	70	100¢	$70	0x274a8a…
10-05 20:13:28	Córdoba CF vs. CD Tenerife: Both Teams to Score	Yes	SELL	83	100¢	$83	0xf04fea…
10-05 08:35:34	Córdoba CF vs. CD Tenerife: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	83	54¢	$45	0x7aaa83…
10-05 08:35:11	Will Kongsvinger IL Toppfotball win on 2026-10-05?	Yes	BUY	70	57¢	$40	0xab1fa8…
10-05 02:04:14	Golden Knights vs. Canucks	Golden Knights	BUY	57	53¢	$30	0x410720…
10-05 00:40:34	Spread: Lions (-6.5)	Panthers	BUY	57	53¢	$30	0x9eb3e8…
10-05 00:39:46	Lions vs. Panthers: O/U 50.5	Under	BUY	57	53¢	$30	0x098c24…
10-05 00:37:31	nhl las van 2026 10 04 spread away 1pt5	Golden Knights	BUY	98	51¢	$50	0x096d02…
10-05 00:16:49	Spread: Lions (-3.5)	Lions	BUY	139	54¢	$75	0x55117d…
10-05 00:16:25	Lions vs. Panthers	Lions	BUY	114	66¢	$75	0xae5559…
10-04 23:59:55	Will Buffalo Bills win the 2026 AFC East?	Yes	SELL	243	68¢	$165	0x72f62e…
10-04 23:16:32	Chiefs vs. Raiders	Raiders	BUY	109	23¢	$25	0x008354…
10-04 22:43:16	Chiefs vs. Raiders	Raiders	BUY	231	26¢	$60	0x8d7f76…
10-04 21:09:31	Broncos vs. 49ers	49ers	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0x396bf3…
10-04 18:43:50	Cardinals vs. Giants	Cardinals	BUY	60	42¢	$25	0xd7d80a…
10-04 16:22:55	Spread: Cardinals (-2.5)	Cardinals	BUY	90	49¢	$44	0xe6d8fb…
10-04 08:07:28	Spread: Rams (-2.5)	Rams	BUY	167	60¢	$100	0xbf81bf…
10-04 00:40:47	Blackhawks vs. Sabres	Sabres	BUY	53	38¢	$20	0xb4ff81…
10-03 22:01:34	Spread: Wild (-1.5)	Wild	BUY	80	44¢	$35	0x19c9c5…
10-03 22:00:19	Spread: Lightning (-1.5)	Lightning	BUY	71	42¢	$30	0xc8fc65…
10-03 21:15:14	Spread: Sabres (-1.5)	Sabres	BUY	85	47¢	$40	0x84acf6…
10-03 02:14:44	Bruins vs. Jets	Bruins	BUY	27	26¢	$7	0x4742bd…
10-03 02:14:08	Will the New Orleans Saints make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?	Yes	SELL	135	47¢	$63	0x2d210d…
10-03 01:23:27	Blues vs. Stars	Stars	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0x9123c0…