Parched-Province — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$37

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

96.6%

Resolved

111

Trades

128

lifetime

Volume

$1.49K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-10

last 10-29 13:19

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 39 days

Categories

Other

73% 98% +$5

Politics

14% 80% -$43

Crypto

9% 100% +$1

Tech

4% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

30 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	3	$134	92	46	+46	No	+$0	09-14 17:46
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 13 2026	2	$105	53	53	+0	No	+$0	08-14 03:18
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	2	$99	52	52	+0	No	+$0	08-26 16:40
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	2	$95	48	48	+0	No	+$0	10-05 03:10
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026?	2	$55	55	0	+55	Yes	+$0	09-04 05:54
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	1	$55	55	0	+55	No	+$0	09-07 01:40
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	1	$53	53	0	+53	No	+$0	08-22 01:22
Aligned FDV above $50M one day after launch?	1	$53	53	0	+53	Yes	+$0	08-20 21:43
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	1	$53	53	0	+53	No	+$0	08-15 07:23
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 14 2026	1	$53	53	0	+53	No	+$0	08-14 04:00
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	1	$52	52	0	+52	No	+$1	08-11 16:33
Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	1	$52	53	0	+53	No	+$2	08-05 08:14
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	1	$51	51	0	+51	No	+$0	07-01 01:23
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	2	$49	56	0	+56	Yes	-$49	10-15 02:32
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	1	$46	46	0	+46	Yes	+$0	09-16 00:03
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	2	$43	22	22	+0	No	+$0	08-31 15:35
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	2	$38	19	19	+0	open	—	10-29 13:19
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	2	$37	19	19	+0	No	+$0	08-31 17:28
GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?	1	$29	30	0	+30	No	+$0	07-31 20:48
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 in August?	2	$23	12	12	+0	No	+$0	08-31 20:17
Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	09-19 13:57
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s April 2026 meeting?	1	$18	18	0	+18	No	+$0	04-28 23:02
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	2	$17	9	8	+0	No	+$0	10-05 03:12
will xrp dip to 0pt8 in february 2026	1	$14	14	0	+14	No	+$0	02-28 12:59
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	2	$12	6	6	+0	open	—	10-28 14:22
will xai have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	1	$12	12	0	+12	No	+$0	02-25 02:38
googl above 280 on january 30 2026	1	$9	9	0	+9	Yes	+$0	01-23 20:52
will xrp dip to 1 in january 2026	1	$7	7	0	+7	No	+$0	01-10 05:55
meta above 720 on january 30 2026	1	$6	7	0	+7	No	+$0	01-17 03:37
will xauusd reach 4400 in july 2026	1	$6	6	0	+6	No	+$0	07-30 05:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 13:19:25	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0x80fd76…
10-28 23:44:10	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	19	99¢	$19	0x905e6b…
10-28 14:22:01	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x64da2b…
10-20 22:13:03	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	7	17¢	$1	0x23def3…
10-15 02:32:59	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	10	84¢	$9	0x864a21…
10-10 20:38:49	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	46	88¢	$40	0x5e3e66…
10-09 22:03:05	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x0ec51b…
10-05 03:12:25	Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x98f9ea…
10-05 03:10:58	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	48	100¢	$48	0x314940…
09-25 14:58:45	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	BUY	48	99¢	$48	0x3a6b75…
09-23 12:59:28	Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$8	0x28714d…
09-19 13:57:32	Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x331ee5…
09-16 00:03:39	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	Yes	BUY	46	100¢	$46	0x801055…
09-14 17:46:21	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	BUY	46	100¢	$46	0x5254db…
09-12 02:42:52	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	SELL	46	97¢	$44	0xe744a9…
09-11 21:04:46	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	BUY	46	97¢	$44	0xeaf11c…
09-09 17:44:46	Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x5ed241…
09-07 01:40:34	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	BUY	55	99¢	$55	0x73e918…
09-04 05:54:31	Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	53	100¢	$53	0x5e9ffc…
09-04 04:59:51	Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xc0391d…
08-31 20:17:49	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 in August?	No	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x7755dd…
08-31 17:28:55	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0xca55c3…
08-31 15:35:19	Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0x14587d…
08-28 23:09:31	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x74270e…
08-27 10:55:24	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $168 in August?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x0ca34b…
08-26 20:29:12	Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x144d56…
08-26 16:40:27	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	52	96¢	$50	0x5e27a4…
08-24 07:38:57	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	52	96¢	$50	0x94a91d…
08-23 20:16:57	Will Meituan be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x0ebf80…
08-22 01:22:58	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	No	BUY	53	100¢	$53	0x347b92…
08-20 21:43:51	Aligned FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	53	99¢	$53	0xb0633f…
08-20 11:06:21	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0x1b4aba…
08-15 07:23:43	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	53	99¢	$53	0x7ec92d…
08-14 22:22:18	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	0¢	$0	0x40679a…
08-14 04:00:06	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 14 2026	No	BUY	53	99¢	$53	0xe06c45…
08-14 03:18:57	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 13 2026	No	SELL	53	100¢	$53	0xda181b…
08-13 03:21:52	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 13 2026	No	BUY	53	99¢	$52	0x7df26f…
08-11 16:33:37	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	No	BUY	52	99¢	$52	0x106378…
08-08 07:23:55	Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x2c0e2b…
08-05 08:14:02	Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	No	BUY	53	97¢	$52	0x559aca…
07-31 20:48:45	GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$29	0xd2c72f…
07-30 23:43:56	will spy reach 760 in july 2026	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x936301…
07-30 16:30:47	will bitcoin dip to 55k in july 2026 381	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x7aee5d…
07-30 08:51:06	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xabe293…
07-30 05:08:24	will xauusd reach 4400 in july 2026	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x81e602…
07-28 07:49:39	will nvda dip to 152 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xc977db…
07-28 02:22:21	will xagusd dip to 48 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xbe8104…
07-25 21:53:52	will bitcoin dip to 52pt5k in july 2026 976	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x8610bf…
07-25 01:37:30	will wti reach 130 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x5f83e7…
07-24 21:31:36	will bitcoin dip to 42pt5k in july 2026 821	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x490c5d…
07-24 12:05:22	will spy reach 780 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xe5c4a0…
07-24 10:12:12	will googl dip to 280 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0xa2cc5f…
07-22 11:49:04	will ethereum dip to 1400 in july 2026 711 181	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x0a2d44…
07-22 06:05:27	will xauusd dip to 3400 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0x7edcff…
07-21 03:25:43	will ethereum dip to 1100 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xc4525e…
07-20 16:17:42	will xagusd dip to 44 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xd6cc02…
07-12 13:20:04	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x548073…
07-01 01:23:52	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	51	100¢	$51	0x51cf40…
05-13 15:36:41	Will Lithuania be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x538441…
05-11 02:47:35	Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x89997e…
05-09 16:19:26	Will Meta have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x99797f…
05-09 02:41:22	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x17038d…
05-09 02:28:06	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x47a339…
05-08 18:36:34	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xf18aad…
05-08 12:50:48	Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xc25b57…
05-08 01:56:38	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x77f1c5…
05-07 17:16:49	Will Solana dip to $20 in May?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xf66787…
05-07 11:45:50	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xdbb86a…
05-06 13:24:30	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in May?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x6643b6…
05-05 20:22:10	Will OpenAI have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x7e0f41…
05-05 17:05:50	Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0xb628bf…
05-05 15:31:32	Will Z.ai have the third best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x17deff…
05-05 14:45:54	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $280 in May?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x1b4955…
05-05 13:07:48	Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xf979e7…
04-28 23:02:40	No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0xd48309…
04-25 21:23:34	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x4954df…
04-25 12:33:38	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.60 in April?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$2	0xd21502…
04-23 11:18:12	Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$3	0xf7dfb9…
04-22 02:24:50	Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xb425ab…
04-21 20:08:46	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xd95a3e…
04-20 11:13:38	Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $20 end of April?	Yes	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x557643…
04-20 00:44:00	Will DeepSeek have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xb449b4…
04-19 10:51:46	Will Solana reach $150 in April?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x195652…
04-18 20:46:34	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x237536…
04-17 16:14:04	Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0xe1a1fc…
04-16 21:30:08	Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in April?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x7207b8…
04-16 08:03:06	Will XRP dip to $0.40 in April?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x735f3c…
04-15 02:56:08	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x7e7cfb…
04-14 08:32:45	Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x0b23af…
04-13 06:50:21	Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xb951dd…
03-28 23:23:10	aapl above 300 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x0fb8d1…
03-22 20:24:13	will nvidia be the third largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x35e365…
03-22 02:52:15	will bnb dip to 300 in march	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x68f0ae…
03-19 12:12:13	will oracle be the third largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x0abb4c…
03-18 17:29:33	msft above 480 on march 31 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x507c5c…
03-17 16:11:59	will dogecoin reach 0pt2 in march 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xe8d08e…
03-16 03:08:17	will alibaba have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 712	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xb9e9c4…
03-14 05:17:45	will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x87bb93…
03-11 15:19:57	bank of england decreases interest rates by 50 bps after march 2026 meeting 876	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xddac18…
03-09 03:42:29	will meituan have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 469	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xff0280…