Fickle-Analogue — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

95.9%

Resolved

106

Trades

650

lifetime

Volume

$874

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-26

last 05-20 16:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

97% 96% +$2

Politics

3% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

16 active days in 12wk • peak 163 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	1	$37	38	0	+38	open	—	04-27 12:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	1	$27	37	0	+37	open	—	04-27 07:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	5	$27	20	14	+6	open	—	04-28 19:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	1	$25	28	0	+28	open	—	04-30 16:43
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on April 26, 2026?	2	$14	1,124	0	+1,124	open	—	04-26 20:06
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	1	$13	16	0	+16	open	—	04-26 18:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	2	$12	8	8	+0	open	—	04-28 19:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	1	$10	13	0	+13	open	—	04-26 18:38
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	3	$9	2,083	0	+2,083	open	—	04-30 20:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	1	$8	15	0	+15	open	—	05-14 16:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	1	$8	10	0	+10	open	—	04-26 18:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	1	$7	8	0	+8	open	—	04-26 18:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	2	$5	6	6	+0	open	—	04-28 19:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	1	$5	10	0	+10	open	—	04-26 21:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	1	$5	5	0	+5	Down	+$0	05-13 15:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	3	$3	3	1	+1	open	—	05-01 16:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-28 17:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	2	$2	2	2	+0	open	—	04-28 18:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-01 19:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-01 18:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-01 16:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-01 16:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	2	$2	2	1	+0	open	—	05-01 16:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-28 18:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-01 15:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-01 16:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-01 16:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-01 18:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-01 15:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-01 15:20

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-20 16:49:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x315e2e…
05-19 13:37:04	Solana Up or Down - May 19, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x4eaa83…
05-18 13:24:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x3b77a2…
05-18 13:19:19	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x37c3f2…
05-18 13:19:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x58db74…
05-18 13:13:34	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x9a2244…
05-18 13:09:43	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xaf1384…
05-18 12:54:49	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xd7a9ad…
05-18 12:53:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xf12da5…
05-18 12:48:55	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x6135ab…
05-18 12:44:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x9c92ad…
05-18 12:19:22	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x72b2ef…
05-18 11:59:25	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x34359f…
05-18 11:53:55	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x644485…
05-18 11:48:45	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xecfd3a…
05-18 11:48:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x8a3c1e…
05-18 11:43:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x1d5eaa…
05-18 11:43:33	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x167849…
05-18 11:18:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x8b597c…
05-18 11:14:23	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x031f3b…
05-18 11:13:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xf6e19f…
05-18 10:59:26	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x3cd237…
05-18 10:59:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x0c3764…
05-18 10:34:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x30924a…
05-18 10:29:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xfd7779…
05-18 10:19:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x2f6114…
05-18 10:18:32	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xa9521e…
05-18 10:14:24	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x7d53cf…
05-18 09:54:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xd74480…
05-18 09:49:22	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x9199a5…
05-18 09:44:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x12722d…
05-18 09:39:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x358abc…
05-18 09:38:33	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xbf9afa…
05-18 09:29:43	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xd42b40…
05-18 09:19:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xc72af8…
05-18 08:53:48	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x7982a1…
05-18 08:49:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x4ae0a1…
05-18 08:44:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xade920…
05-18 08:38:33	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x15cf32…
05-18 08:29:53	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x90523d…
05-18 08:24:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Down	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xa5b34a…
05-18 08:19:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x06d04a…
05-18 08:14:05	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x6ba430…
05-18 08:13:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x06179f…
05-18 07:43:33	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x468c84…
05-18 07:39:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x68d360…
05-18 07:38:42	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x7996cf…
05-18 07:34:23	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x7584fe…
05-18 07:28:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x5c8cff…
05-18 07:18:52	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x4e6220…
05-18 07:14:26	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x4577e0…
05-18 07:09:23	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xa5e15d…
05-18 06:54:22	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xafd758…
05-18 06:48:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x7b0eaf…
05-18 06:44:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xcea90d…
05-18 06:39:47	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x1cebce…
05-18 06:39:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x02d33a…
05-18 06:29:24	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Down	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x1ab951…
05-18 06:29:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x0e58ff…
05-18 06:24:35	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xd69780…
05-18 06:19:24	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xe13734…
05-18 06:19:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x183a1b…
05-18 06:04:49	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xc0cb8f…
05-18 05:59:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xfb1e98…
05-18 05:49:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x53f4d1…
05-18 05:43:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x84c445…
05-18 05:39:23	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x897e75…
05-18 05:29:23	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xd00761…
05-18 05:24:36	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x35cf87…
05-18 05:24:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Up	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x6446bc…
05-18 05:18:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x374035…
05-18 04:59:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x7a7e11…
05-18 04:54:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x6ec515…
05-18 04:54:23	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Up	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x8622ed…
05-18 04:49:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x07121b…
05-18 04:18:49	Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xfbae6a…
05-18 04:18:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x7c2948…
05-18 03:54:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x99182d…
05-18 03:53:32	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xdc45d6…
05-18 03:49:24	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x317070…
05-18 03:49:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x9c0446…
05-18 03:33:33	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x6063e4…
05-18 03:33:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x59b7c7…
05-18 02:59:28	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x6a4a4d…
05-18 02:58:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Up	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x97bc21…
05-18 02:44:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x25b98e…
05-18 02:44:23	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x3e59c5…
05-18 02:38:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Down	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x4063dc…
05-18 02:34:40	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Down	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x5208cd…
05-18 02:34:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Down	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0xbc47f7…
05-18 02:24:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xfdaa19…
05-18 02:19:42	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xeb6a6e…
05-18 02:14:22	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x055260…
05-18 02:04:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x8e76c3…
05-18 01:59:23	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xe7b49d…
05-18 01:58:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x79fd15…
05-18 01:54:01	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Up	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0xe24812…
05-18 01:54:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x2021ef…
05-18 01:49:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x3a2349…
05-18 01:44:41	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x8a4eed…