Taut-Arrest — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$158

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

60.6%

Resolved

307

Trades

665

lifetime

Volume

$4.27K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-04

last 05-21 14:21

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 12 days

Categories

Crypto

97% 55% -$143

Other

2% 50% +$18

Politics

1% 0% -$34

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-05-21).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	2	$72	47	47	+0	Down	+$22	05-10 07:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	7	$58	41	41	+0	Down	+$8	05-10 05:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	4	$56	41	41	+0	Up	+$7	05-10 03:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	2	$54	35	35	+0	Down	+$14	05-10 07:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	7	$54	40	40	+0	Up	-$6	05-08 13:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	3	$49	29	29	+0	Up	+$9	05-08 04:16
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	8	$48	48	48	+0	Up	-$2	05-10 04:39
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 32°C on May 5?	2	$44	114	114	+0	Yes	+$4	05-05 03:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	3	$44	29	29	+0	Down	+$14	05-10 06:16
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	5	$42	23	23	+0	Down	+$2	05-08 13:45
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 31°C on May 5?	3	$42	128	128	+0	No	+$22	05-05 05:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	4	$42	27	27	+0	Down	+$2	05-08 09:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	6	$42	32	32	+0	Up	+$2	05-09 05:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	4	$40	24	24	+0	Up	$0	05-08 10:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	2	$40	26	26	+0	Up	+$12	05-10 06:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	2	$40	66	66	+0	Up	-$30	05-10 08:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	2	$35	48	48	+0	Up	-$15	05-10 05:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	3	$34	20	20	+0	Up	+$4	05-08 05:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	2	$34	24	24	+0	Down	-$6	05-08 10:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	5	$31	45	17	+28	Up	+$1	05-11 15:50
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	7	$31	6,568	0	+6,568	No	-$31	05-21 14:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	6	$30	34	27	+6	Down	-$3	05-11 17:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	3	$29	20	20	+0	Down	+$9	05-10 05:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	4	$29	23	23	+0	Up	-$1	05-05 12:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	3	$29	19	19	+0	Down	+$9	05-10 03:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	3	$29	19	19	+0	Down	+$9	05-10 04:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	3	$28	19	19	+0	Down	+$8	05-11 16:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	4	$27	18	18	+0	Down	-$3	05-08 07:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	2	$27	17	17	+0	Down	+$7	05-10 02:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	2	$27	17	17	+0	Up	+$7	05-06 05:46

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-21 14:21:12	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	4,420	0¢	$9	0x785a8a…
05-21 10:23:06	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$2	0x80ce39…
05-19 15:29:42	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	336	1¢	$5	0xe16a51…
05-19 15:29:07	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	286	1¢	$4	0x4f59a7…
05-19 15:28:43	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	323	1¢	$4	0xa0fa57…
05-19 15:25:41	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	71	1¢	$1	0xcfa458…
05-19 15:21:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	SELL	8	52¢	$4	0x10c250…
05-19 15:20:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	BUY	8	71¢	$5	0xcc5528…
05-19 15:19:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	SELL	8	25¢	$2	0x747b9e…
05-19 15:16:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0x615d30…
05-19 15:01:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0xe01312…
05-19 14:57:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0xb970d0…
05-19 14:55:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0xf83a4d…
05-19 14:53:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	SELL	11	42¢	$5	0xe56c2b…
05-19 14:50:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0xc8ac58…
05-19 14:44:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0xb77aa4…
05-19 14:44:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	SELL	6	55¢	$3	0x593a93…
05-19 14:42:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0xdf3c5d…
05-19 14:36:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x773faa…
05-19 14:28:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0xaf5772…
05-19 14:21:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0x6f1f39…
05-19 14:16:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0xf3c0ac…
05-19 14:13:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	SELL	7	21¢	$1	0xd6a0fc…
05-19 14:11:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Up	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0xd1ad1a…
05-19 14:11:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	SELL	8	26¢	$2	0x86939d…
05-19 14:10:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x871fdb…
05-19 14:02:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x9a9866…
05-19 13:57:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x10f11f…
05-19 13:52:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Up	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0x0fe5e4…
05-19 13:40:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Up	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0x91e302…
05-19 13:36:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Up	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0x827910…
05-19 13:32:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Down	SELL	14	26¢	$3	0x0b780d…
05-19 13:31:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Down	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0xd501e1…
05-19 13:26:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Up	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0xbaff7a…
05-19 13:23:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Up	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0xe01b0e…
05-18 14:51:50	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	95	2¢	$2	0x454be4…
05-18 14:51:34	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	217	2¢	$5	0xe07878…
05-18 14:31:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Up	SELL	8	45¢	$4	0x9bb9af…
05-18 14:30:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0xf62461…
05-18 14:28:23	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	228	2¢	$5	0xc1a29c…
05-18 14:28:16	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	238	2¢	$5	0x4e4dec…
05-17 08:44:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	SELL	5	5¢	$0	0x3d349a…
05-17 08:40:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0x69762d…
05-17 08:39:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	SELL	6	94¢	$6	0x22731b…
05-17 08:37:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0x13e7d8…
05-17 08:31:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	SELL	9	42¢	$4	0xf30f24…
05-17 08:30:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0xc6a96d…
05-17 08:26:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Up	SELL	9	21¢	$2	0xcbaaf2…
05-17 08:25:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x42e3a4…
05-17 08:22:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	SELL	8	45¢	$4	0x9961bf…
05-17 08:21:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0x410780…
05-17 08:18:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Up	SELL	9	30¢	$3	0x71eb91…
05-17 08:14:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Up	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x63e642…
05-17 08:12:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0xb7937b…
05-17 08:10:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	SELL	9	30¢	$3	0xa5179e…
05-17 08:09:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x20fad0…
05-17 08:09:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Up	SELL	10	97¢	$9	0x9687c7…
05-17 08:04:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x15c14c…
05-17 08:01:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0x25f9d5…
05-17 08:00:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Up	SELL	10	36¢	$4	0xe9122d…
05-17 07:59:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	SELL	10	91¢	$9	0xa487d3…
05-17 07:59:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x057eec…
05-17 07:54:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xb099e9…
05-17 07:53:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	SELL	7	15¢	$1	0x0d3138…
05-17 07:51:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Up	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x2cb312…
05-17 07:50:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0x2cce5d…
05-17 07:48:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Up	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x46cba6…
05-13 12:58:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0x5978c9…
05-13 12:50:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x993723…
05-13 12:48:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xef3ad6…
05-13 11:31:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Up	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0xeee5c5…
05-13 11:20:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Up	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0xeefefe…
05-13 11:20:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Up	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0x6fb3cc…
05-13 11:16:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Down	SELL	12	15¢	$2	0x4d3430…
05-13 11:14:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Down	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0xf74439…
05-13 11:14:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Down	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0x529d5e…
05-13 11:11:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0x976ad8…
05-13 11:10:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x880a42…
05-13 11:10:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0x733e0e…
05-13 11:07:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Down	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0xf07c78…
05-13 11:03:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	SELL	16	14¢	$2	0x61600f…
05-13 11:01:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0xad4305…
05-13 11:01:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0xea23ce…
05-13 10:59:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0xe57fe1…
05-13 10:54:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x4d2f88…
05-13 10:53:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	SELL	12	40¢	$5	0x07e2f9…
05-13 10:51:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0x582d71…
05-13 10:48:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Up	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0xbacd33…
05-11 17:47:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	SELL	8	19¢	$2	0x4b139e…
05-11 17:45:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x06e2cc…
05-11 17:45:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Down	SELL	19	53¢	$10	0xfeda0b…
05-11 17:42:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Down	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x3b67f6…
05-11 17:42:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Down	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x363361…
05-11 17:39:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x2a6fa4…
05-11 17:34:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x7a0268…
05-11 17:33:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	SELL	7	18¢	$1	0x2888b4…
05-11 17:32:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0x161ee3…
05-11 17:31:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	SELL	10	21¢	$2	0x137c26…
05-11 17:29:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xa98814…
05-11 17:28:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Down	SELL	8	41¢	$3	0xb67f50…