Likely-Pool — Polymarket

├──spot/

│ ├──tokens

│ ├──token-analysis

│ ├──wallets

│ ├──tier & flow

│ ├──orderflow

│ ├──trades

│ └──heatmap

├──perps/

│ ├──tokens

│ ├──token-analysis

│ ├──wallets

│ ├──favourites

│ ├──heatmap

│ ├──treemap

│ └──orderflow

├──cex-perps/

│ ├──tokens

│ ├──tier & flow

│ ├──funding

│ ├──spreads

│ ├──sentiment

│ ├──orderflow

│ ├──trades

│ └──heatmap

└──options/

├──btc

├──eth

└──sol

Realized P&L (30d)

-$1

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

3.2%

Resolved (30d)

13

Trades (30d)

21

21 lifetime

Volume (30d)

$83

$83 lifetime

Avg / trade

$4

Open exposure

$4

1 position

First seen

2026-05-04

last 05-05 16:44

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 23% $-1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 19 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (13) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Down		-5	$-5	74¢	$-4	+$1	05-05 16:44

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	2	$9	0	10	-10	Down	$-1	05-05 03:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	1	$5	0	5	-5	Down	$-0	05-05 01:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	1	$5	0	5	-5	Down	$-0	05-05 05:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	1	$5	0	5	-5	Down	$-0	05-05 03:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	1	$5	0	5	-5	Down	$-0	05-05 00:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	1	$5	0	5	-5	Down	$-0	05-04 23:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	1	$5	0	5	-5	Down	$-0	05-05 04:30
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	1	$5	0	5	-5	open	—	05-05 06:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	1	$5	0	5	-5	Up	$-0	05-05 04:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	1	$5	0	5	-5	open	—	05-05 16:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	1	$5	0	5	-5	Up	$-0	05-04 23:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	05-05 12:11
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	1	$4	0	5	-5	open	—	05-05 12:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	1	$4	0	5	-5	open	—	05-05 15:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	1	$4	0	5	-5	open	—	05-05 12:06
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	1	$3	0	5	-5	Up	$-2	05-05 03:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	1	$3	0	5	-5	open	—	05-05 15:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	1	$1	0	5	-5	Down	+$1	05-05 01:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	1	$0	0	5	-5	Up	+$0	05-05 00:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	1	$0	0	5	-5	Down	+$0	05-05 01:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-05 16:44:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x9fe177…
05-05 15:34:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Down	SELL	5	52¢	$3	0xf1f81f…
05-05 15:07:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	SELL	5	82¢	$4	0x96ade0…
05-05 12:26:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	SELL	5	88¢	$4	0x21a1eb…
05-05 12:11:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x4f0160…
05-05 12:06:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Up	SELL	5	73¢	$4	0x5d4d17…
05-05 06:45:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x3065ff…
05-05 05:59:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xabc923…
05-05 04:40:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xc0b731…
05-05 04:30:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xe9c649…
05-05 03:30:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x245a5e…
05-05 03:27:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Down	SELL	5	88¢	$4	0xfe8d1b…
05-05 03:23:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Up	SELL	5	64¢	$3	0x37c123…
05-05 03:04:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xcbc898…
05-05 01:44:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	SELL	5	7¢	$0	0x37bfa6…
05-05 01:14:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	SELL	5	20¢	$1	0x6ea598…
05-05 01:04:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x49a8e0…
05-05 00:24:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x875469…
05-05 00:20:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Down	SELL	5	8¢	$0	0x60cbfb…
05-04 23:54:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xde487d…
05-04 23:24:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xadebcf…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
(anonymous) 0xe907…cff6	20	$2.53K	97	05-05 16:39
Slight-Goodnight 0x6088…f361	17	$1.20K	91	05-05 15:32
Popular-Insurrection 0xeebd…ba30	16	$6.58K	115	05-05 16:44
Little-Fraction 0xcfb1…f694	16	$3.06K	46	05-05 15:09
Rash-Alternative 0xf353…6685	16	$1.14K	88	05-05 15:07
Upset-Sight 0xe022…6603	13	$881	90	05-05 16:44
Exalted-Mattress 0xa8cc…41a9	13	$823	33	05-05 15:34
Novel-Morbid 0x4766…5a03	13	$810	78	05-05 16:42

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