Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$475

Unrealized P&L

+$723

Hit rate

57.7%

Resolved

101

Trades

1,044

lifetime

Volume

$36.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$35

Open exposure

$411

5 positions

First seen

2026-07-11

last 10-29 13:12

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 35 days

Categories

Other

59% 54% +$473

Tech

34% 64% -$84

Sports

3% 0% -$210

Crypto

2% 80% +$197

Politics

2% 67% +$98

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

70 active days in 12wk • peak 34 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
will strc hit 100 by december 31 20260618001621119	Yes	+197	$105	91¢	$180	+$75	09-14 15:59
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	-557	-$821	32¢	$-178	+$643	09-23 13:22
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT?	Yes	+38	$19	97¢	$37	+$18	10-23 05:45
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	+363	$51	4¢	$13	-$38	09-15 15:37
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	Yes	-469	-$28	1¢	$-3	+$25	10-10 10:12

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	73	$3.3K	3,552	3,552	+0	Yes	+$555	08-12 15:46
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	60	$2.8K	5,837	6,394	-557	open	—	09-23 13:22
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	42	$1.7K	2,612	2,612	+0	No	-$271	08-18 12:58
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?	59	$1.6K	1,671	1,768	-97	Yes	-$498	07-24 16:33
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	17	$1.4K	1,389	1,389	+0	open	—	07-31 16:26
Will GitHub's longest critical incident in September 2026 be between 1 and 3 hours?	3	$1.0K	680	680	+0	Yes	+$27	09-13 10:47
will openais astra model be released by august 15 2026 20260801214557730	18	$987	653	653	+0	No	+$245	08-07 17:21
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	24	$894	1,103	1,103	+0	No	+$221	08-04 05:00
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	24	$794	1,109	1,109	+0	No	+$248	07-27 15:32
Will GitHub's longest critical incident in September 2026 be between 6 and 12 hours?	26	$779	1,653	1,280	+373	No	+$4	09-13 15:02
Will GitHub's longest critical incident in August 2026 be between 6 and 12 hours?	15	$701	743	34	+708	Yes	+$55	08-30 13:28
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?	12	$683	1,246	1,102	+145	No	-$205	09-25 07:43
Will Kai and Speed have 90 or more total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon?	4	$655	1,634	0	+1,634	No	-$655	08-11 13:15
president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	4	$653	266	426	-160	Yes	-$7	07-14 06:14
Will Databricks have the greatest valuation growth in August 2026?	14	$641	105	633	-528	No	-$51	08-31 05:45
Will Anthropic have the greatest valuation growth in August 2026?	6	$616	0	700	-700	Yes	-$84	08-30 13:27
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 2, 2026?	14	$594	567	567	+0	Yes	-$30	09-01 17:15
will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	8	$571	1,616	1,616	+0	Yes	+$43	08-11 11:44
will microstrategy announce selling any bitcoin july 7 13	1	$549	0	549	-549	No	-$1	07-13 14:07
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	27	$534	1,019	1,019	+0	No	+$114	07-27 14:36
will the next claude opus model be released by july 22 2026	13	$491	478	371	+107	No	+$123	07-22 23:12
Over $40M committed to the Jumper public sale?	13	$490	382	331	+51	Yes	+$222	10-02 10:21
will the next claude opus model be released by july 17 2026 534	13	$480	341	341	+0	No	+$175	07-17 11:59
Will Claude go down 5-7 times in September?	9	$479	311	363	-53	Yes	+$243	09-26 08:42
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	5	$462	343	343	+0	No	+$11	08-13 16:44
Anthropic vs OpenAI — greater valuation growth August 2026	12	$438	652	0	+652	Anthropic	+$214	08-30 13:29
will the next claude haiku model 4pt6 debut at a score of at least 1460 by june 30 2027	15	$431	258	258	+0	No	+$31	10-19 08:35
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	46	$425	3,773	3,793	-20	Yes	-$358	09-24 03:52
Over $45M committed to the Jumper public sale?	13	$395	731	0	+731	Yes	+$336	10-02 10:21
Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1?	5	$390	135	409	-274	Yes	+$17	10-21 00:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 13:12:32	GitHub.com critical incident by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	28	74¢	$21	0xbf18cd…
10-28 15:25:47	GitHub.com critical incident by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	47¢	$9	0xe65f52…
10-28 15:19:11	GitHub.com critical incident by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	62	77¢	$48	0xb722bc…
10-28 15:18:58	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	SELL	109	43¢	$47	0x21a676…
10-28 14:28:59	GitHub.com critical incident by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0x0d03e9…
10-28 01:49:15	GitHub.com critical incident by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	66¢	$16	0xbfdf16…
10-28 01:46:09	Will TikTok Pro - Events be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 30?	No	SELL	22	71¢	$16	0x214dcd…
10-27 23:17:09	GitHub.com critical incident by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	64	62¢	$40	0xbcf394…
10-27 15:34:12	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	255	13¢	$33	0x637e53…
10-27 09:26:06	Will there be exactly 2 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of October 26?	No	BUY	146	79¢	$116	0x21e1f7…
10-27 09:25:33	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	Yes	SELL	159	73¢	$117	0x2e1fe0…
10-27 06:28:47	Will TikTok Pro - Events be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 30?	No	BUY	22	67¢	$15	0x44fc9b…
10-27 06:18:24	Will Muse from Meta be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 30?	Yes	BUY	19	22¢	$4	0x6dfecd…
10-27 06:15:18	Will Muse from Meta be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 30?	Yes	BUY	19	22¢	$4	0xf3f2cd…
10-27 05:46:26	Will there be exactly 2 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of October 26?	No	BUY	25	74¢	$18	0x63b3e6…
10-26 13:56:21	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	94	17¢	$16	0x0ae4d0…
10-26 13:51:48	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	16¢	$1	0xe9424d…
10-26 13:33:02	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	16¢	$0	0x3b8639…
10-26 13:20:39	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	152	21¢	$32	0xe8ad53…
10-26 13:16:20	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	109	46¢	$50	0xb3ed0b…
10-26 10:06:35	Will Muse from Meta be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 30?	Yes	BUY	19	23¢	$4	0xa568db…
10-26 10:02:50	GitHub.com critical incident by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	67¢	$13	0xd1c8f8…
10-26 09:45:11	GitHub.com critical incident by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	65¢	$12	0xf4e442…
10-25 13:45:27	GitHub.com critical incident by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	74	17¢	$12	0x78b769…
10-23 16:19:57	GitHub.com critical incident by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0x1ed64c…
10-23 16:18:56	GitHub.com critical incident by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	64	45¢	$29	0x3b4771…
10-23 16:18:20	Will Capital One Mobile be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?	Yes	SELL	89	100¢	$89	0x6d3c84…
10-23 14:34:00	GitHub.com critical incident by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	78¢	$6	0x58015d…
10-23 14:01:50	GitHub.com critical incident by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	58	76¢	$44	0x6ebc21…
10-23 05:45:42	Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT?	Yes	BUY	36	50¢	$18	0x4c28d6…
10-23 05:22:23	Will Capital One Mobile be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?	Yes	SELL	9	86¢	$8	0x71dc3e…
10-23 05:22:08	Will Capital One Mobile be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?	Yes	SELL	10	86¢	$9	0x1d6da7…
10-23 04:20:14	Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT?	Yes	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x205f17…
10-23 04:01:48	Will Capital One Mobile be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?	Yes	BUY	19	44¢	$8	0xbbe6e4…
10-23 03:41:12	reserved app 2 20261023 10172026 257117	Yes	BUY	89	34¢	$30	0xf0e131…
10-23 02:16:33	GitHub.com critical incident by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	71¢	$13	0x7bd4bf…
10-22 12:51:29	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	Yes	BUY	1	19¢	$0	0xe5b49f…
10-22 12:51:00	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	Yes	BUY	19	19¢	$4	0xbbc8f8…
10-22 03:51:14	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 80 and 100 million views on week 1?	Yes	SELL	200	0¢	$0	0x6cdc2c…
10-21 00:56:08	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	SELL	409	83¢	$340	0x0bec06…
10-19 22:53:36	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	15	36¢	$5	0x911b48…
10-19 22:18:42	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	33	35¢	$11	0xaffbca…
10-19 22:17:12	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	17	34¢	$6	0x461983…
10-19 22:09:04	Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	BUY	70	38¢	$27	0x88448a…
10-19 08:35:15	Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	108	88¢	$95	0x39f937…
10-19 04:27:54	Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	100	91¢	$91	0x9bed0c…
10-19 00:48:17	Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	34	92¢	$31	0x740668…
10-18 10:48:50	Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	16	87¢	$14	0x3fafe4…
10-18 10:06:38	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	73¢	$6	0x3aae9a…
10-18 10:02:38	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xc9b3dc…
10-18 10:02:21	Will Claude go down 11-13 times in October?	No	SELL	46	97¢	$45	0x80185a…
10-18 07:36:42	Will Claude go down 11-13 times in October?	No	SELL	25	99¢	$25	0x339644…
10-18 02:19:53	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	99¢	$19	0x744612…
10-16 11:45:30	Will the Bitcoin difficulty adjustment at block 971,712 be up 3% to 7%?	Yes	BUY	8	88¢	$7	0x152cea…
10-16 11:45:04	Will the Bitcoin difficulty adjustment at block 971,712 be up 3% to 7%?	Yes	BUY	9	88¢	$8	0xd26332…
10-16 06:47:24	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	77¢	$15	0x9da5da…
10-16 05:45:52	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x7d91d3…
10-16 01:50:30	Will the Bitcoin difficulty adjustment at block 971,712 be up 3% to 7%?	Yes	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x57c690…
10-16 01:50:12	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	74¢	$5	0xb55b96…
10-16 01:49:39	Will the Bitcoin difficulty adjustment at block 971,712 be up 3% to 7%?	Yes	BUY	45	73¢	$33	0xbba9e2…
10-16 01:49:09	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	74¢	$37	0xc31a7f…
10-16 00:37:43	Will the Bitcoin difficulty adjustment at block 971,712 be up 3% to 7%?	Yes	BUY	79	74¢	$58	0xac6abd…
10-16 00:36:57	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	80	76¢	$61	0x31e6ea…
10-15 13:22:19	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	82¢	$16	0x9c88e8…
10-14 14:48:57	will the next claude haiku model 4pt6 debut at a score of at least 1460 by june 30 2027	No	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0xcb512f…
10-14 14:38:58	will the next claude haiku model 4pt6 debut at a score of at least 1440 by june 30 2027	No	SELL	13	40¢	$5	0xfdfe39…
10-14 13:06:00	will the next claude haiku model 4pt6 debut at a score of at least 1460 by june 30 2027	No	BUY	6	65¢	$4	0xa36fef…
10-14 12:57:45	Will there be 4 or more Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of October 12?	No	BUY	198	73¢	$144	0x932606…
10-14 12:40:59	will the next claude haiku model 4pt6 debut at a score of at least 1460 by june 30 2027	No	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x2565ee…
10-14 12:40:29	will the next claude haiku model 4pt6 debut at a score of at least 1460 by june 30 2027	No	BUY	8	55¢	$4	0x8d0264…
10-14 12:38:21	will the next claude haiku model 4pt6 debut at a score of at least 1440 by june 30 2027	No	SELL	14	40¢	$5	0xe4332d…
10-14 10:07:56	Will Claude go down 11-13 times in October?	No	BUY	72	84¢	$60	0x4d42c4…
10-14 08:04:49	Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x0abb53…
10-14 07:58:11	Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	5	72¢	$3	0x387d4c…
10-13 13:38:46	Will claude-opus-5.5-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	70	2¢	$1	0x223968…
10-13 13:03:04	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	185	54¢	$100	0x60a2e2…
10-12 07:14:53	Will there be 5 or more ChatGPT outages in October 2026?	Yes	BUY	53	57¢	$30	0xcfde42…
10-12 07:14:14	Will there be 5 or more ChatGPT outages in October 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	56¢	$17	0x9bf69b…
10-12 03:18:12	Will there be 5 or more ChatGPT outages in October 2026?	Yes	BUY	118	55¢	$65	0xe54819…
10-12 02:49:00	Will there be 5 or more ChatGPT outages in October 2026?	Yes	BUY	74	53¢	$39	0xd9b2b0…
10-11 14:15:40	Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	27	31¢	$8	0x79f320…
10-11 14:14:58	Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0x7d838b…
10-11 13:37:07	Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1400 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	19	99¢	$19	0x4842d1…
10-10 10:13:21	Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	36	78¢	$28	0x57d85a…
10-10 10:12:55	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	Yes	SELL	469	6¢	$28	0x453261…
10-10 07:01:21	Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	41	79¢	$32	0x75d925…
10-10 02:21:42	Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	132	80¢	$106	0xc3598c…
10-10 00:47:46	Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x8eda05…
10-08 14:49:03	Will Polymarket mindshare hit 75% by December 31?	Yes	SELL	3	26¢	$1	0x0e4036…
10-07 22:14:31	GitHub.com critical incident by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	126	100¢	$126	0x476dc1…
10-07 22:14:31	GitHub.com critical incident by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0x24b701…
10-07 12:47:55	Will Polymarket mindshare hit 75% by December 31?	Yes	SELL	5	38¢	$2	0xf9df3c…
10-07 03:58:20	GitHub.com critical incident by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0x3945e3…
10-07 03:57:30	GitHub.com critical incident by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	145	91¢	$132	0xd507ac…
10-06 23:04:59	Will GitHub's longest critical incident in October 2026 be between 3 and 6 hours?	Yes	SELL	25	34¢	$8	0xcbd722…
10-06 14:03:06	Will Polymarket mindshare hit 75% by December 31?	Yes	SELL	57	54¢	$31	0x9cd270…
10-03 07:30:23	Will DeepSeek have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 28?	Yes	BUY	53	58¢	$31	0xbd94cc…
10-03 04:43:47	Will Google have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 28?	Yes	BUY	20	63¢	$13	0x97fabd…
10-03 04:43:33	Will DeepSeek have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 28?	Yes	BUY	60	63¢	$38	0x311770…
10-03 04:42:59	Will Google have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 28?	Yes	BUY	25	63¢	$16	0x356c0f…