Puzzling-East — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$475

Unrealized P&L

-$3

Hit rate

71.0%

Resolved

716

Trades

1,436

lifetime

Volume

$37.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$26

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 10-17 18:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 72 days

Categories

Crypto

82% 59% -$321

Other

13% 56% +$174

Politics

5% 52% -$328

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

11 active days in 12wk • peak 15 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No		+7	$5	55¢	$4	-$1	10-17 18:47
Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026?	Yes		+8	$5	42¢	$3	-$2	10-17 18:55

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
friedrich merz out as chancellor of germany by march 31	3	$436	194	249	-55	No	+$5	03-27 21:32
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-03 11:45 UTC	1	$407	469	0	+469	Down	-$407	02-03 11:56
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-03 11:30 UTC	1	$376	408	0	+408	Up	+$32	02-03 11:38
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-03 11:15 UTC	1	$314	378	0	+378	Down	+$64	02-03 11:24
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-25 17:00 UTC	3	$305	242	129	+113	Down	+$18	03-25 17:09
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-04 21:15 UTC	3	$299	383	110	+273	Down	-$22	02-04 21:25
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-04 09:30 UTC	4	$288	265	158	+108	Down	-$57	02-04 09:44
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-04 21:30 UTC	3	$286	364	90	+274	Down	-$273	02-04 21:39
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-04 17:30 UTC	4	$283	355	146	+210	Up	-$32	02-04 17:43
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-23 16:15 UTC	10	$280	166	165	+1	Down	+$7	03-23 16:25
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	3	$280	200	200	+0	No	+$68	01-26 18:05
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-03 11:00 UTC	1	$274	315	0	+315	Up	+$41	02-03 11:10
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-03 17:45 UTC	2	$259	289	0	+289	Down	+$30	02-03 17:59
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-03 18:00 UTC	2	$258	167	160	+7	Down	-$30	02-03 18:08
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-03 18:15 UTC	2	$256	308	0	+308	Down	+$52	02-03 18:27
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-04 19:45 UTC	2	$250	294	0	+294	Up	+$44	02-04 19:54
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-04 15:00 UTC	1	$246	254	0	+254	Up	+$8	02-04 15:10
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-03 14:15 UTC	4	$244	180	179	+1	Up	-$72	02-03 14:28
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-03 20:30 UTC	1	$239	246	0	+246	Up	+$7	02-03 20:36
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-25 17:15 UTC	6	$237	177	175	+1	Down	+$4	03-25 17:29
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-04 18:30 UTC	1	$233	238	0	+238	Up	+$5	02-04 18:41
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-04 17:15 UTC	1	$229	241	0	+241	Down	+$12	02-04 17:21
epl ars mun 2026 01 25 mun	4	$228	197	197	+0	Yes	+$68	01-25 18:12
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-04 17:00 UTC	1	$227	229	0	+229	Down	+$2	02-04 17:10
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-03 17:30 UTC	2	$226	260	0	+260	Down	+$34	02-03 17:41
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-04 14:45 UTC	1	$225	247	0	+247	Down	+$22	02-04 14:54
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-24 11:15 UTC	5	$222	146	100	+46	Down	+$4	03-24 11:29
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-03 10:45 UTC	1	$221	276	0	+276	Down	+$55	02-03 10:54
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-04 16:45 UTC	1	$220	227	0	+227	Up	+$7	02-04 16:56
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-03 20:15 UTC	2	$218	240	0	+240	Up	+$22	02-03 20:22

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-17 18:55:03	Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x42474a…
10-17 18:47:36	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?	No	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0x484dd0…
10-04 16:01:29	Will Malta win on 2026-10-04?	Yes	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x6ffa35…
10-04 15:59:56	Will Austria win on 2026-10-04?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xd4544c…
10-02 20:55:06	Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?	Yes	BUY	26	19¢	$5	0x39ecba…
10-01 18:48:53	Will Germany win on 2026-10-01?	Yes	BUY	12	83¢	$10	0x4d298d…
10-01 18:45:00	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	43	24¢	$10	0xad6f54…
10-01 18:41:08	Germany to score first vs. Serbia?	Yes	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x8ebab6…
10-01 18:39:27	Will Linke be in the next Berlin state government?	Yes	SELL	5	81¢	$4	0x6e260e…
09-29 11:03:26	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	43	69¢	$30	0x1dbd10…
09-27 20:29:51	Will Germany vs. Greece end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0xf14a77…
09-27 20:26:32	Will Greece win on 2026-09-27?	Yes	SELL	9	66¢	$6	0x5865a5…
09-27 20:21:59	Will Greece win on 2026-09-27?	Yes	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x9a7f0f…
09-27 20:00:41	Will Germany win on 2026-09-27?	Yes	SELL	22	60¢	$13	0x9f16be…
09-27 18:24:35	Will Germany win on 2026-09-27?	Yes	BUY	22	68¢	$15	0xf15141…
09-25 23:18:12	trump renames ai by september 30	No	SELL	20	80¢	$16	0x2dbd76…
09-25 18:01:48	trump renames ai by september 30	No	BUY	20	69¢	$14	0x5fdfba…
09-22 20:20:10	Tolentino: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Julia Grabher	Julia Grabher	SELL	20	80¢	$16	0x5a6d8c…
09-22 19:26:51	Tolentino: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Julia Grabher	Julia Grabher	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x667c86…
09-22 19:24:30	Tolentino: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Julia Grabher	Jennifer Ruggeri	SELL	14	47¢	$7	0x2e3cfe…
09-22 19:13:00	Tolentino: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Julia Grabher	Jennifer Ruggeri	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0xb07f27…
09-22 18:20:09	Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 20+ times during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly?	No	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0xd336f9…
09-22 14:14:16	Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 20+ times during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly?	No	BUY	10	35¢	$4	0x395b27…
09-22 14:09:49	Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" or "Gasoline" 5+ times during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly?	No	BUY	41	9¢	$4	0xa74cc6…
09-22 13:29:06	Will Trump say "Stock Market" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly?	No	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0x099d56…
09-22 13:29:04	Will Trump say "Stock Market" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly?	No	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0x47f831…
09-22 10:09:24	Will Trump say "Terror" or "Terrorism" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly?	No	BUY	0	14¢	$0	0xf9d6e4…
09-22 04:41:15	Will Trump say "Terror" or "Terrorism" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly?	No	BUY	1	14¢	$0	0x175418…
09-22 04:41:09	Will Trump say "Terror" or "Terrorism" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly?	No	BUY	1	14¢	$0	0xe56492…
09-22 04:38:06	Will Trump say "Terror" or "Terrorism" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly?	No	BUY	10	14¢	$1	0x14d4ee…
09-22 03:00:53	Will Trump say "Trump" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly?	No	BUY	13	18¢	$2	0x371ce1…
09-22 03:00:53	Will Trump say "Trump" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly?	No	BUY	1	18¢	$0	0x361f22…
09-21 23:49:54	Will Trump say "Trump" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly?	No	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x36183b…
09-21 19:37:48	Will Trump say "Terror" or "Terrorism" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly?	No	BUY	2	14¢	$0	0x0571d7…
09-21 19:31:45	Will Trump say "Terror" or "Terrorism" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly?	No	BUY	2	14¢	$0	0xc2c41f…
09-21 18:16:37	Will Trump say "Teleprompter" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly?	No	BUY	10	37¢	$4	0x9e2898…
09-21 16:25:38	Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 25?	No	BUY	50	4¢	$2	0x5549fa…
09-21 15:15:16	Will Trump say "Terror" or "Terrorism" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly?	No	BUY	2	14¢	$0	0xc3db96…
09-21 11:02:36	Will Trump say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" or "Cryptocurrency" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly?	Yes	BUY	50	5¢	$3	0x7fbc58…
09-21 10:48:39	Will Trump say "Terror" or "Terrorism" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly?	No	BUY	1	14¢	$0	0x2eacf7…
09-20 16:31:13	Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Yes	BUY	33	84¢	$28	0x6e2870…
09-20 10:24:54	Will Linke be in the next Berlin state government?	Yes	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0xfbcde9…
09-16 12:08:51	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	32	88¢	$28	0x041355…
09-16 12:07:07	Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?	No	SELL	34	83¢	$28	0xee1e5f…
08-11 07:15:22	foreign intervention in gaza by december 31 775	No	BUY	34	70¢	$24	0x6de3de…
06-16 18:30:20	Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0x5c4e1a…
06-15 09:53:48	fifwc esp cvi 2026 06 15 spread home 3pt5	Spain	BUY	29	35¢	$10	0xd9a61f…
06-13 12:00:28	Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Yes	BUY	89	82¢	$73	0x151363…
06-13 11:57:55	Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	SELL	255	29¢	$74	0x3023c9…
06-07 17:57:15	iran closes its airspace by june 8	No	BUY	45	90¢	$40	0xfece99…
06-06 19:52:57	Will Germany win on 2026-06-06?	No	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0x59ea5a…
06-04 18:43:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 18:40 UTC	Up	BUY	18	92¢	$17	0x5049dc…
06-04 18:41:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 18:40 UTC	Down	SELL	19	20¢	$4	0x4e6ae0…
06-04 18:39:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 18:40 UTC	Down	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0x248419…
06-04 18:38:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 18:35 UTC	Up	SELL	26	94¢	$24	0xac5160…
06-04 18:37:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 18:35 UTC	Up	BUY	26	78¢	$20	0x7c8ed8…
06-04 18:32:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 18:30 UTC	Down	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0xd87341…
06-04 18:31:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 18:30 UTC	Down	SELL	19	29¢	$5	0x2f7cf6…
06-04 18:29:58	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 18:30 UTC	Down	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0xd79368…
06-04 18:23:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	SELL	14	94¢	$13	0xcd5610…
06-04 18:22:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Up	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0x4c2671…
06-04 17:59:09	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 17:55 UTC	Down	SELL	23	88¢	$20	0x35cf11…
06-04 17:56:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 17:55 UTC	Down	BUY	23	88¢	$20	0x227468…
06-04 17:55:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 17:55 UTC	Up	SELL	23	28¢	$6	0xb4b61d…
06-04 17:54:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 17:55 UTC	Up	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0xdc53d2…
06-04 17:40:15	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-04 17:30 UTC	Down	SELL	27	96¢	$26	0x785bd1…
06-04 17:39:00	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-04 17:30 UTC	Down	BUY	27	93¢	$25	0x765b00…
06-04 17:27:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Up	BUY	14	80¢	$11	0xf3a1f2…
06-04 17:24:24	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 17:20 UTC	Down	SELL	17	71¢	$12	0x8850f5…
06-04 17:23:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 17:20 UTC	Down	BUY	17	60¢	$10	0xd50bd2…
06-04 17:12:18	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 17:10 UTC	Up	BUY	21	90¢	$19	0x9c9784…
06-04 17:10:06	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-04 17:00 UTC	Down	SELL	15	61¢	$9	0xb839f4…
06-04 17:08:42	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-04 17:00 UTC	Down	BUY	15	74¢	$11	0xf00c67…
06-04 17:03:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 17:00 UTC	Down	BUY	12	83¢	$10	0xbbd6c6…
06-04 17:02:24	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 17:00 UTC	Down	SELL	38	54¢	$20	0x6bb635…
06-04 17:01:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 17:00 UTC	Down	BUY	38	77¢	$29	0xb4218f…
06-04 16:56:10	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-04 16:45 UTC	Down	BUY	29	99¢	$29	0x892f5e…
06-04 16:42:28	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-04 16:30 UTC	Up	BUY	15	93¢	$14	0xee5cf6…
06-04 16:37:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 16:35 UTC	Up	SELL	19	83¢	$16	0x09f7e9…
06-04 16:35:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 16:35 UTC	Up	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0xf01cf0…
06-04 16:34:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Down	SELL	23	99¢	$23	0x37c5b7…
06-04 16:33:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Down	BUY	23	91¢	$21	0x511b43…
06-04 16:32:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Down	SELL	24	88¢	$21	0x5dfab2…
06-04 16:32:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 16:30 UTC	Down	BUY	24	86¢	$21	0xbe6957…
06-04 16:29:48	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-04 16:15 UTC	Up	SELL	17	49¢	$9	0x08f138…
06-04 16:29:13	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-04 16:15 UTC	Up	BUY	17	69¢	$12	0x8a6270…
06-04 16:24:43	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-04 16:15 UTC	Down	SELL	13	8¢	$1	0x6c0ec3…
06-04 16:23:21	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-04 16:15 UTC	Down	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0x94ae08…
06-04 16:18:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 16:15 UTC	Up	BUY	15	91¢	$14	0x151890…
06-04 16:11:22	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-04 16:00 UTC	Down	BUY	29	80¢	$23	0x3e0ff2…
06-04 15:59:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 16:00 UTC	Down	BUY	15	52¢	$8	0x74a011…
06-04 15:58:18	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-04 15:45 UTC	Down	SELL	26	5¢	$1	0x4915af…
06-04 15:57:12	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-06-04 15:45 UTC	Down	BUY	26	54¢	$14	0x26288e…
06-04 15:52:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 15:50 UTC	Up	SELL	19	89¢	$17	0xdbe712…
06-04 15:50:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 15:50 UTC	Up	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0x0e2cec…
06-04 15:48:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 15:45 UTC	Down	SELL	24	95¢	$23	0x1eb39e…
06-04 15:47:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 15:45 UTC	Down	BUY	24	67¢	$16	0x949f91…
06-04 15:43:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 15:40 UTC	Down	BUY	17	60¢	$10	0x421a40…
06-04 15:37:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Down	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0x5df7c8…
06-04 15:36:40	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 15:35 UTC	Up	SELL	21	41¢	$9	0xa032dc…