Unruly-Disagreement — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$420

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

66.3%

Resolved

279

Trades

602

lifetime

Volume

$7.36K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-10

last 08-25 09:07

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 47 days

Categories

Other

91% 36% +$817

Politics

5% 0% -$362

Tech

3% 15% +$5

Crypto

1% 11% -$40

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	12	$362	23,208	0	+23,208	Yes	-$362	06-16 20:14
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 23?	3	$211	191	191	+0	No	+$171	06-23 13:26
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 14?	3	$195	165	165	+0	Yes	+$135	06-14 16:23
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 31?	3	$192	199	199	+0	Yes	+$142	05-31 14:08
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on May 28?	3	$180	163	163	+0	Yes	+$144	05-28 16:39
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on May 23?	6	$141	138	138	+0	Yes	+$105	05-23 15:46
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17?	4	$123	121	121	+0	Yes	+$73	06-17 13:20
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16?	3	$123	125	125	+0	Yes	+$83	06-16 19:52
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on May 30?	3	$118	106	106	+0	Yes	+$78	05-30 13:26
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 23?	2	$116	101	101	+0	Yes	+$86	06-23 16:59
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C or higher on May 28?	7	$112	95	95	+0	Yes	+$75	05-28 13:31
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 29?	2	$97	82	82	+0	Yes	+$57	06-29 15:12
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 5?	2	$94	87	87	+0	Yes	+$64	06-05 15:47
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on May 31?	5	$91	234	77	+158	No	-$29	05-31 13:26
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23?	3	$88	80	80	+0	Yes	+$48	06-23 14:11
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 25?	2	$87	67	67	+0	Yes	+$47	06-25 17:39
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 25?	7	$86	117	117	+0	Yes	+$46	06-25 13:10
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on May 28?	7	$84	103	103	+0	Yes	+$64	05-28 11:03
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 3?	2	$83	75	75	+0	Yes	+$53	06-03 15:53
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 4?	3	$83	72	72	+0	Yes	+$33	06-04 14:36
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 16?	2	$81	66	66	+0	Yes	+$51	06-16 19:52
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on May 29?	2	$79	59	59	+0	Yes	+$39	05-29 17:25
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 16?	2	$79	129	129	+0	Yes	+$39	06-16 11:00
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14?	2	$78	62	62	+0	Yes	+$38	06-14 16:36
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 30?	3	$75	79	79	+0	Yes	+$25	05-30 14:22
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 27?	4	$74	74	74	+0	No	+$34	06-27 13:06
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 27?	3	$72	59	59	+0	Yes	+$32	06-27 14:43
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 4?	2	$70	68	68	+0	Yes	+$40	06-04 13:10
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?	2	$70	192	192	+0	Yes	+$20	06-14 16:29
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 31?	5	$64	48	48	+0	Yes	+$24	05-31 15:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-25 09:07:15	Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 9, 2026?	No	BUY	34	30¢	$10	0x282427…
08-13 18:03:33	Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	SELL	186	1¢	$1	0x86308f…
08-02 12:19:03	Will DeepSeek be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Yes	SELL	992	0¢	$2	0xb35900…
08-02 12:18:11	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	168	4¢	$7	0x93598a…
07-31 17:32:29	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	76	6¢	$5	0xedf03e…
07-31 17:31:12	Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	SELL	397	1¢	$5	0x72d224…
07-31 17:30:36	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	92	6¢	$5	0x70a6f8…
07-28 10:44:56	Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	SELL	574	1¢	$5	0xa9f79c…
07-27 13:39:43	Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	SELL	955	2¢	$21	0xf6f124…
07-23 18:04:27	Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 23, 2026?	No	SELL	47	88¢	$41	0xcc7413…
07-23 13:29:58	Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 23, 2026?	No	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0x6a4c9a…
07-23 13:27:58	Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 23, 2026?	No	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0xc966f6…
07-09 16:53:20	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 9, 2026?	No	BUY	200	0¢	$1	0xc86a3b…
07-09 16:53:11	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 9, 2026?	No	BUY	200	0¢	$1	0x77283a…
07-08 14:32:17	rklb up or down on july 8 2026	Up	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0x086f24…
07-05 15:51:02	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	114	1¢	$1	0xbfd4e9…
07-05 15:50:46	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	163	1¢	$1	0x048917…
07-05 15:50:37	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	144	1¢	$1	0xddd09c…
07-05 15:49:56	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	160	1¢	$1	0x98a412…
07-05 14:13:44	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	136	1¢	$1	0x2c2ca1…
07-05 14:13:37	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	422	0¢	$2	0xc673f9…
07-05 14:12:44	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	255	1¢	$2	0x906509…
07-05 14:12:34	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	462	1¢	$4	0x4a8c52…
07-05 14:12:25	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	104	1¢	$1	0xf1f88f…
07-05 14:12:07	Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	177	3¢	$5	0xd4c86f…
07-02 16:10:11	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	No	SELL	345	2¢	$7	0x6a6ee6…
07-02 16:07:23	gpt 5pt6 released by july 15 2026 272	No	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x984acc…
07-02 16:06:59	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	345	3¢	$10	0xf5c990…
06-30 15:41:52	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-30 15:40 UTC	Down	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0xee4803…
06-30 15:41:43	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-30 15:40 UTC	Down	BUY	7	54¢	$4	0x9b02a2…
06-30 15:40:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-30 15:40 UTC	Down	BUY	10	42¢	$4	0x180d75…
06-30 15:33:14	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-30 15:30 UTC	Down	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x781053…
06-29 15:12:02	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 29?	Yes	SELL	82	95¢	$77	0x72c467…
06-29 12:24:13	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 28°C on June 29?	Yes	BUY	78	19¢	$15	0xba6f09…
06-29 12:08:43	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 29?	Yes	BUY	166	3¢	$5	0x638f5c…
06-29 11:42:28	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 29?	Yes	BUY	82	25¢	$20	0xf5a629…
06-29 11:42:04	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C on June 29?	Yes	BUY	124	4¢	$5	0x468f5d…
06-29 11:41:56	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 29?	Yes	BUY	121	12¢	$15	0x467af3…
06-28 16:14:34	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-28 16:10 UTC	Down	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xfa24a0…
06-28 16:13:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-28 16:10 UTC	Down	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xdd7968…
06-28 16:12:38	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-28 16:10 UTC	Down	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xc4b92a…
06-28 15:54:16	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-28 15:50 UTC	Down	SELL	19	79¢	$15	0xe04e49…
06-28 15:51:56	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-28 15:50 UTC	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xa1459e…
06-28 15:51:31	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-28 15:50 UTC	Down	BUY	19	5¢	$1	0xfe1fe3…
06-28 15:48:28	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-28 15:45 UTC	Up	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0xbccfcf…
06-28 15:48:19	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-28 15:45 UTC	Up	BUY	21	5¢	$1	0x110a91…
06-28 15:47:50	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-28 15:45 UTC	Up	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xf452d3…
06-28 15:37:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-28 15:35 UTC	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x2068c3…
06-28 15:37:46	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-28 15:35 UTC	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x60a58b…
06-28 15:37:43	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-28 15:35 UTC	Up	BUY	78	1¢	$1	0x19dab9…
06-28 15:33:01	XRP Up or Down - June 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Down	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x3a1514…
06-28 15:28:32	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-28 15:25 UTC	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x55932b…
06-28 15:22:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-28 15:20 UTC	Up	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x00784d…
06-28 15:13:44	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-28 15:10 UTC	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xcb07f4…
06-28 13:11:14	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 28?	No	BUY	37	5¢	$2	0xb6099d…
06-28 13:11:11	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 28?	No	BUY	24	4¢	$1	0x9b9615…
06-28 11:20:41	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 28?	No	BUY	73	11¢	$8	0x9939e0…
06-28 11:19:55	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on June 28?	Yes	BUY	67	11¢	$7	0x42439c…
06-28 11:03:14	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 28?	Yes	BUY	237	8¢	$20	0x8500ca…
06-28 10:31:37	Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 28?	Yes	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0x0577ed…
06-28 10:26:37	Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 28?	Yes	BUY	100	15¢	$15	0x60364a…
06-27 14:43:04	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 27?	Yes	SELL	49	89¢	$43	0x0b32c2…
06-27 14:42:59	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 27?	Yes	BUY	28	12¢	$3	0x77f447…
06-27 14:42:53	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 27?	Yes	SELL	10	89¢	$9	0x0c2285…
06-27 13:06:29	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 27?	Yes	SELL	24	73¢	$18	0x919dd8…
06-27 13:02:52	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 27?	Yes	SELL	25	74¢	$18	0x21f62e…
06-27 13:02:04	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 27?	Yes	SELL	25	73¢	$18	0x874227…
06-27 12:23:14	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	16	26¢	$4	0x8fc335…
06-27 12:21:23	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 27?	Yes	BUY	59	34¢	$20	0xa5c085…
06-27 11:56:44	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 27?	Yes	BUY	45	11¢	$5	0x757992…
06-27 11:29:01	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on June 27?	Yes	BUY	22	29¢	$6	0xfb732b…
06-27 11:27:25	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on June 27?	Yes	BUY	8	27¢	$2	0x144efb…
06-27 10:17:23	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 27?	Yes	BUY	78	32¢	$25	0x8eddd0…
06-27 10:17:14	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 27?	Yes	BUY	74	27¢	$20	0xdcf07a…
06-26 23:07:49	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0x1fc152…
06-26 19:20:29	spy up or down on june 26 2026	Down	SELL	5	51¢	$3	0xbcb494…
06-26 19:20:20	spy up or down on june 26 2026	Down	SELL	5	51¢	$3	0x447167…
06-26 19:18:13	spy up or down on june 26 2026	Up	SELL	5	51¢	$3	0x88f2bd…
06-26 19:16:02	spy up or down on june 26 2026	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x5fb0dc…
06-26 11:31:11	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 26?	Yes	BUY	58	5¢	$3	0x5cd470…
06-26 11:19:22	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 38°C on June 26?	Yes	BUY	85	5¢	$4	0xe31356…
06-26 11:17:43	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 38°C on June 26?	Yes	BUY	32	6¢	$2	0x547593…
06-26 11:11:23	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 38°C on June 26?	Yes	BUY	22	9¢	$2	0x5b4a8a…
06-26 11:08:40	Will DeepSeek be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Yes	BUY	992	1¢	$6	0x14d511…
06-26 11:08:23	Will Z.ai be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Yes	BUY	600	0¢	$3	0x6a320f…
06-26 11:07:16	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 38°C on June 26?	Yes	BUY	55	9¢	$5	0xa046ea…
06-26 11:07:02	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 38°C on June 26?	Yes	BUY	60	8¢	$5	0x55e64b…
06-25 21:49:41	Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	397	1¢	$5	0x6639d5…
06-25 21:49:34	Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	186	3¢	$5	0x5bbce8…
06-25 21:49:20	Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	955	1¢	$5	0x231eb0…
06-25 21:49:13	Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	574	1¢	$5	0xde189a…
06-25 18:04:50	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-25 18:00 UTC	Down	SELL	5	52¢	$3	0x1dc88d…
06-25 18:04:47	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-25 18:00 UTC	Down	BUY	6	67¢	$4	0x17297e…
06-25 18:02:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-25 18:00 UTC	Up	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0xbd0925…
06-25 17:52:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-25 17:50 UTC	Down	BUY	8	52¢	$4	0x82ed66…
06-25 17:49:31	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-25 17:45 UTC	Up	BUY	68	1¢	$1	0x51ff66…
06-25 17:49:17	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-25 17:45 UTC	Up	BUY	32	3¢	$1	0x17eedb…
06-25 17:39:26	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 25?	Yes	SELL	67	100¢	$67	0xc3898c…
06-25 17:39:23	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 25?	No	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0xd06d8c…
06-25 13:37:25	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 25?	Yes	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0x3cea41…