Flawed-Pricing — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$422

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

95.6%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$4.73K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$110

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-02 12:47

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 28 days

Categories

Other

76% 96% +$402

Crypto

12% 100% +$19

Tech

9% 100% +$1

Politics

4% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
over 40m committed to the jumper public sale	4	$213	460	0	+460	Yes	+$247	09-30 16:30
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	1	$210	211	0	+211	Yes	+$1	05-27 12:33
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?	1	$210	0	214	-214	No	-$4	05-17 08:24
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	1	$210	210	0	+210	No	+$0	05-21 13:57
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	1	$210	210	0	+210	No	+$0	06-04 10:14
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	1	$210	210	0	+210	No	+$0	06-29 18:43
elon musk of tweets april 18 april 20 165 189	1	$204	204	0	+204	No	+$0	04-19 09:17
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	1	$200	200	0	+200	Yes	+$0	03-30 17:58
elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 300 319	1	$200	200	0	+200	No	+$0	04-10 08:27
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	2	$199	200	0	+200	No	+$1	06-22 16:18
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	1	$199	200	0	+200	No	+$1	06-15 18:21
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?	4	$186	100	100	+0	Yes	+$13	03-24 20:33
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?	1	$185	191	0	+191	No	+$6	03-05 11:35
elon musk of tweets february 26 february 28 115 139	1	$184	185	0	+185	No	+$1	02-28 12:33
russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	1	$182	183	0	+183	No	+$1	01-30 09:17
Moonbirds FDV above $50M one day after launch?	1	$181	182	0	+182	Yes	+$0	01-29 12:15
wta sabalen svitoli 2026 01 29	1	$166	181	0	+181	Sabalenka	+$14	01-29 09:29
Zama auction clearing price above $0.14?	1	$166	167	0	+167	No	+$1	01-22 11:27
elon musk of tweets december 26 january 2 580plus	1	$165	166	0	+166	No	+$2	01-01 14:31
elon musk of tweets february 10 february 17 300 319	1	$149	150	0	+150	No	+$1	02-17 12:08
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	1	$130	130	0	+130	No	+$0	06-09 10:01
Over $50M committed to the Jumper public sale?	6	$120	140	140	+0	No	+$4	10-02 12:47
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?	1	$111	111	0	+111	No	+$0	05-17 08:30
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	1	$100	100	0	+100	No	+$0	06-17 11:50
elon musk of tweets january 31 february 2 140 164	1	$100	100	0	+100	No	+$0	02-02 06:45
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	1	$100	100	0	+100	Yes	+$0	03-16 18:51
Over $4M committed to the Ethos public sale?	1	$94	150	0	+150	Yes	+$56	09-03 14:06
over 30m committed to the jumper public sale	2	$74	90	0	+90	Yes	+$16	09-30 08:50
elon musk of tweets february 2 february 4 140 164	1	$50	50	0	+50	No	+$0	02-04 08:42
over 7pt5m committed to the ethos public sale	1	$21	80	0	+80	Yes	+$59	09-04 10:53

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-02 12:47:48	Over $50M committed to the Jumper public sale?	Yes	SELL	40	18¢	$7	0x6f6e28…
10-02 12:30:00	Over $50M committed to the Jumper public sale?	Yes	BUY	40	20¢	$8	0x74f44f…
10-02 11:01:18	Over $50M committed to the Jumper public sale?	Yes	SELL	40	59¢	$24	0xa22910…
10-02 10:55:23	Over $50M committed to the Jumper public sale?	Yes	SELL	30	51¢	$15	0x7ed08d…
10-02 10:53:56	Over $50M committed to the Jumper public sale?	Yes	SELL	30	53¢	$16	0x4786a7…
09-30 16:30:30	over 40m committed to the jumper public sale	Yes	BUY	50	51¢	$26	0x6833bf…
09-30 08:54:36	over 40m committed to the jumper public sale	Yes	BUY	60	50¢	$30	0xfd1106…
09-30 08:50:17	over 30m committed to the jumper public sale	Yes	BUY	70	86¢	$60	0xe8257e…
09-30 07:09:11	over 40m committed to the jumper public sale	Yes	BUY	160	45¢	$72	0x7f09de…
09-30 06:11:47	over 40m committed to the jumper public sale	Yes	BUY	190	45¢	$86	0xdcca3f…
09-29 20:25:47	Over $50M committed to the Jumper public sale?	Yes	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0x198722…
09-29 20:03:11	over 30m committed to the jumper public sale	Yes	BUY	20	68¢	$14	0xc6ab93…
09-04 10:53:06	over 7pt5m committed to the ethos public sale	Yes	BUY	80	26¢	$21	0xfffe14…
09-03 14:06:19	Over $4M committed to the Ethos public sale?	Yes	BUY	150	63¢	$94	0xadae43…
06-29 18:43:20	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	210	100¢	$210	0xe1fa7b…
06-22 16:18:58	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x84718e…
06-22 16:18:19	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x62fc6a…
06-17 11:50:20	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xd7ed4d…
06-15 18:21:31	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	No	BUY	200	100¢	$199	0x3771ac…
06-09 10:01:00	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	No	BUY	130	100¢	$130	0x3ad227…
06-04 10:14:52	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	No	BUY	210	100¢	$210	0x1520a0…
05-27 12:33:27	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	211	100¢	$210	0x0593cc…
05-21 13:57:11	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	210	100¢	$210	0x21dcaa…
05-17 08:30:15	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?	No	BUY	111	100¢	$111	0x454c93…
05-17 08:24:08	Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	214	98¢	$210	0xbd64f5…
04-19 09:17:24	elon musk of tweets april 18 april 20 165 189	No	BUY	204	100¢	$204	0x72e2c3…
04-10 08:27:09	elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 300 319	No	BUY	200	100¢	$200	0xadd570…
03-30 17:58:17	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	Yes	BUY	200	100¢	$200	0x90cf78…
03-24 20:33:05	Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0xa7c5b4…
03-22 21:22:41	Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	90	87¢	$78	0xf8fd0a…
03-22 21:16:57	Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	7	87¢	$6	0x89b79d…
03-22 21:04:39	Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	3	87¢	$2	0xe412c1…
03-16 18:51:55	will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x9d8b48…
03-05 11:35:15	Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	191	97¢	$185	0xa3479f…
02-28 12:33:13	elon musk of tweets february 26 february 28 115 139	No	BUY	185	100¢	$184	0xe42aa6…
02-17 12:08:55	elon musk of tweets february 10 february 17 300 319	No	BUY	150	99¢	$149	0xff51bc…
02-04 08:42:00	elon musk of tweets february 2 february 4 140 164	No	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0xc0da2a…
02-02 06:45:18	elon musk of tweets january 31 february 2 140 164	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xf47174…
01-30 09:17:34	russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	No	BUY	183	99¢	$182	0x0a7450…
01-29 12:15:02	Moonbirds FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	182	100¢	$181	0xffac55…
01-29 09:29:58	wta sabalen svitoli 2026 01 29	Sabalenka	BUY	181	92¢	$166	0x722aae…
01-22 11:27:06	Zama auction clearing price above $0.14?	No	BUY	167	100¢	$166	0xe99bea…
01-01 14:31:09	elon musk of tweets december 26 january 2 580plus	No	BUY	166	99¢	$165	0x10fbc4…