Innocent-Sanction — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$378

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

83.0%

Resolved

1,121

Trades

2,444

lifetime

Volume

$49.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$20

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-08

last 10-27 22:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 99 days

Categories

Other

44% 53% +$166

Crypto

43% 79% +$72

Politics

13% 45% +$29

Tech

0% 50% +$35

Pop-Culture

0% 50% +$74

Sports

0% 100% +$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

21 active days in 12wk • peak 16 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us strike on somalia by january 31 563	67	$4.6K	3,159	3,032	+127	Yes	-$181	01-30 16:11
us strike on somalia by january 31 338	12	$3.4K	1,724	1,724	+0	Yes	+$27	01-23 19:06
italy nordio reform referendum passes	32	$2.4K	2,057	2,057	+0	No	+$322	03-23 14:36
Seeker FDV above $200M one day after launch?	8	$1.9K	1,003	1,003	+0	No	+$40	01-21 19:15
Will the US strike Somalia next?	6	$1.8K	893	893	+0	Yes	+$3	01-26 21:09
will the us strike iran next 433	8	$1.7K	847	847	+0	No	+$4	01-23 17:49
us strike on somalia by february 7	16	$1.2K	700	672	+28	Yes	+$41	01-31 21:19
Flying Tulip FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?	13	$1.0K	537	537	+0	No	+$12	02-24 21:02
will hyperliquid hit 30 in january	13	$972	872	153	+718	Yes	+$41	01-27 22:50
ethereum above 3100 on january 12	4	$871	872	0	+872	Yes	+$1	01-12 16:59
will carlos alcaraz win the 2026 australian open	15	$813	459	459	+0	Yes	+$6	02-01 11:38
us strikes iran by january 13 2026 771	11	$757	400	400	+0	No	+$1	01-13 22:30
Seeker FDV above $100M one day after launch?	30	$687	958	958	+0	Yes	+$12	01-21 15:10
will the us not strike iran by january 31 2026 314	20	$659	717	717	+0	Yes	+$27	01-30 20:58
ETHGAS FDV above $200M one day after launch?	9	$643	436	360	+76	Yes	+$85	01-22 21:01
will big ai be out as 1 free app in the us apple store by march 8	34	$643	3,298	3,298	+0	Yes	+$89	03-08 08:02
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-13 07:40 UTC	8	$614	620	0	+620	Down	+$6	02-13 07:45
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	12	$614	500	500	+0	Yes	-$21	03-08 17:04
us strike on somalia by february 28 399	6	$598	347	347	+0	Yes	+$38	02-28 08:04
Trove FDV above $2M one day after launch?	9	$539	300	300	+0	No	+$25	01-20 19:49
Will the US strike Somalia next?	20	$463	5,648	5,648	+0	Yes	+$5	01-13 23:49
Tria FDV above $200M one day after launch?	6	$413	213	213	+0	No	+$12	02-04 21:03
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-13 07:35 UTC	13	$406	410	0	+410	Down	+$4	02-13 07:39
hyperliquid up or down on february 22	7	$394	207	207	+0	Down	+$20	02-22 16:59
us strikes iran by january 12 2026 314	2	$393	200	200	+0	No	+$7	01-13 04:16
lol navi kcb 2026 01 24	3	$358	200	200	+0	Natus Vincere	+$22	01-24 17:10
Flying Tulip FDV above $1B one day after launch?	13	$331	260	260	+0	Yes	+$8	02-24 15:41
us strikes iran by january 14 2026 913	25	$315	822	832	-10	No	+$21	01-14 22:02
will iran strike israel on march 6	17	$301	400	400	+0	No	+$21	03-06 21:54
us strike on somalia by february 21	7	$277	201	156	+45	Yes	+$33	02-18 21:30

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 22:32:29	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	22	50¢	$11	0x5fef34…
10-27 22:31:39	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	28	50¢	$14	0x841205…
10-27 22:07:57	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0xf0d932…
10-26 18:16:51	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 26, 2026?	No	SELL	64	1¢	$1	0x3fd127…
10-26 18:13:41	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 26, 2026?	No	SELL	36	1¢	$0	0xeb1317…
10-26 17:55:29	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 26, 2026?	No	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x706208…
10-26 15:05:12	Will MicroStrategy (MSTR) hit (LOW) $130 in October?	No	SELL	10	70¢	$7	0x34fa48…
10-26 12:41:08	Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase October 20-26?	No	SELL	22	97¢	$21	0xa4f693…
10-26 12:27:02	Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase October 20-26?	No	BUY	18	73¢	$13	0x231fef…
10-26 08:13:57	Will MicroStrategy (MSTR) hit (LOW) $130 in October?	No	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0x621b40…
10-26 07:28:00	Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase October 20-26?	No	BUY	3	83¢	$3	0xfd8824…
10-25 21:53:02	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	93	36¢	$33	0x87029c…
10-24 20:07:54	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on October 24?	Yes	SELL	11	0¢	$0	0xf6faae…
10-24 19:48:32	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on October 24?	Yes	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0xd644fb…
10-24 19:46:17	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on October 24?	Yes	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0x6a3bde…
10-19 22:12:45	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on October 19?	No	BUY	196	1¢	$2	0xf90428…
10-05 13:01:20	Will the biggest earthquake on October 4, 2026 be 5.5 to 5.6?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xdd6c07…
10-02 19:16:30	Will Italy win on 2026-10-02?	Yes	BUY	52	15¢	$8	0x579445…
10-01 20:51:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	BUY	6	63¢	$4	0x019f52…
10-01 20:46:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Down	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0x73ba29…
10-01 20:40:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x7baa17…
10-01 20:26:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	6	70¢	$4	0x7dcb04…
10-01 20:16:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x03610e…
10-01 19:55:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	6	72¢	$4	0x76085a…
10-01 13:50:41	Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get 30 million or more views on day 5?	No	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0xf1e974…
10-01 07:23:30	Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get 30 million or more views on day 5?	No	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0xbdd2d1…
09-29 20:20:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0x276bb2…
09-29 20:18:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	BUY	22	92¢	$20	0x47c0f6…
09-29 20:17:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Up	BUY	25	81¢	$20	0x360fe8…
09-29 20:15:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Down	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0xa3097e…
09-29 20:10:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xb31256…
09-29 20:06:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0x229978…
09-29 19:53:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x6c595b…
09-29 15:58:14	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 15:55 UTC	Down	SELL	6	24¢	$2	0xb31de3…
09-29 15:57:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 15:55 UTC	Down	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x698b63…
09-29 15:35:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 15:35 UTC	Down	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0xf4625c…
09-29 15:31:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 15:30 UTC	Down	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xb9daca…
09-29 15:30:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 15:30 UTC	Down	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0x0dd7d3…
09-29 15:23:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 15:20 UTC	Down	SELL	5	81¢	$4	0xb633f0…
09-29 15:22:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 15:20 UTC	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xe98d48…
09-28 16:11:50	Will Frank Benedetto win the next Reggio di Calabria by-election?	Yes	SELL	100	0¢	$0	0x2972bc…
09-27 16:52:11	Will Frank Benedetto win the next Reggio di Calabria by-election?	Yes	BUY	30	5¢	$2	0x493025…
09-27 16:52:11	Will Frank Benedetto win the next Reggio di Calabria by-election?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x01c6c6…
09-27 16:52:09	Will Frank Benedetto win the next Reggio di Calabria by-election?	Yes	BUY	50	5¢	$2	0x23a3b3…
09-26 20:47:14	ethereum up or down september 26 2026 4pm et	Up	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x5aa90f…
09-26 20:47:14	ethereum up or down september 26 2026 4pm et	Up	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x1c9037…
09-26 20:47:14	ethereum up or down september 26 2026 4pm et	Up	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x1ab018…
09-26 20:45:23	ethereum up or down september 26 2026 4pm et	Up	BUY	23	1¢	$0	0x141fd9…
09-26 20:45:05	ethereum up or down september 26 2026 4pm et	Up	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x06b5b8…
09-26 20:45:03	ethereum up or down september 26 2026 4pm et	Up	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x603d64…
09-26 20:36:06	ethereum up or down september 26 2026 4pm et	Up	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xb820dc…
09-25 08:23:41	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-25 08:30 UTC	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x2b710f…
09-20 20:02:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	SELL	25	11¢	$3	0x371229…
09-20 20:01:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	BUY	25	8¢	$2	0xf0fb39…
09-20 19:55:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x98e888…
09-20 19:55:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x7cc65f…
09-20 19:51:11	Ethereum Up or Down - September 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	BUY	1	20¢	$0	0xb09cbd…
09-20 19:51:10	Ethereum Up or Down - September 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	BUY	4	20¢	$1	0x7480aa…
09-20 19:51:10	Ethereum Up or Down - September 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x2e544b…
09-20 19:47:35	Solana Up or Down - September 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x29ca93…
09-20 19:45:58	Solana Up or Down - September 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	BUY	13	16¢	$2	0x5aab14…
09-20 19:32:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET	Down	BUY	67	3¢	$2	0x5f142d…
09-20 19:15:52	Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Yes	SELL	35	0¢	$0	0x7e8513…
09-20 18:25:43	Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Yes	SELL	57	0¢	$0	0x34ea0c…
09-20 17:39:28	Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Yes	BUY	39	2¢	$1	0x47cd48…
09-20 17:36:15	Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?	Yes	BUY	200	2¢	$4	0x8652d0…
09-17 20:44:06	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-17 20:40 UTC	Up	BUY	85	0¢	$0	0x06309f…
09-17 20:44:03	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-17 20:40 UTC	Up	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x596605…
09-17 20:44:03	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-17 20:40 UTC	Up	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x1c0375…
09-17 20:43:48	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-17 20:40 UTC	Up	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0xdf8819…
09-17 20:04:19	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-17 20:00 UTC	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xd7faeb…
09-17 20:04:19	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-17 20:00 UTC	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xc964a4…
09-17 20:04:19	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-17 20:00 UTC	Down	BUY	1	49¢	$0	0xbf1e74…
09-17 19:59:18	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-17 20:00 UTC	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x8439bf…
09-17 19:59:13	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-17 20:00 UTC	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x23e2af…
09-17 19:59:12	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-17 20:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x919cd0…
09-17 13:44:34	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-17 13:45 UTC	Up	BUY	1	50¢	$0	0xfaa8f8…
09-17 13:44:34	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-17 13:45 UTC	Up	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0xea434e…
09-17 13:40:06	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-17 13:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x2ef186…
09-17 13:38:18	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-17 13:40 UTC	Down	SELL	10	46¢	$5	0xb21dfd…
09-17 13:37:22	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-17 13:40 UTC	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x353de2…
09-17 13:35:31	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-17 13:40 UTC	Down	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x029a2e…
09-16 15:26:00	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 15:25 UTC	Up	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0xfebbe1…
09-16 15:25:57	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 15:25 UTC	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x392f49…
09-16 15:21:20	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 15:20 UTC	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0xd8fcdd…
09-16 15:21:03	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 15:20 UTC	Down	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0xfe3db0…
09-16 14:58:03	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 14:55 UTC	Up	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x1224e1…
09-16 14:56:20	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 14:55 UTC	Down	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x24461c…
09-16 14:51:20	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 14:50 UTC	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x816ccf…
09-16 14:51:20	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 14:50 UTC	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x2fff76…
09-16 10:31:10	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 10:30 UTC	Up	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x3f09de…
09-16 10:30:49	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 10:30 UTC	Up	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x3f91a6…
09-16 10:30:19	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 10:30 UTC	Up	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x392139…
09-16 10:30:18	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 10:30 UTC	Up	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0xb5e7e0…
09-16 09:49:39	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 09:45 UTC	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x3714fe…
09-16 09:39:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 09:35 UTC	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x943e55…
09-16 09:38:48	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 09:35 UTC	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x5f4c4a…
09-16 09:38:48	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-16 09:35 UTC	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x2601a7…
09-15 20:36:42	Solana Up or Down - September 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	SELL	3	82¢	$3	0xc73ac9…
09-15 20:36:37	Solana Up or Down - September 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	SELL	0	82¢	$0	0xd7ec83…