Warm-Scratch — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$39

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

30.5%

Resolved

Trades

1,030

lifetime

Volume

$13.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-22

last 08-02 23:52

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

66% — —

Politics

22% 50% $-39

Sports

9% — —

Crypto

2% — —

Tech

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

12 active days in 12wk • peak 42 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
highest temperature in shanghai on april 5 2026 26c	2	$905	458	457	+0	open	—	04-05 08:26
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	33	$550	283	360	-77	open	—	04-30 00:57
nba phi sac 2026 03 19	2	$481	282	282	+0	open	—	03-20 06:40
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	5	$453	280	280	+0	open	—	04-30 15:08
elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 300 319	16	$440	380	496	-116	open	—	04-17 14:41
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	3	$361	200	200	+0	open	—	04-22 13:24
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	20	$343	650	650	+0	open	—	05-19 06:36
highest temperature in shanghai on april 13 2026 20corhigher	32	$335	175	175	+0	open	—	04-13 05:51
highest temperature in shanghai on april 6 2026 26c	2	$256	213	213	+0	open	—	04-06 04:05
nba uta sac 2026 03 15	2	$228	128	128	+0	open	—	03-16 04:18
elon musk of tweets march 6 march 13 360 379	3	$227	200	200	+0	open	—	03-13 16:14
nba sas lac 2026 04 02 spread away 4pt5	2	$221	123	122	+1	open	—	04-03 04:43
highest temperature in shanghai on april 14 2026 17c	3	$218	120	119	+1	open	—	04-14 10:12
elon musk of tweets march 10 march 17 340 359	16	$218	825	825	+0	open	—	03-16 16:27
elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 240 259	4	$204	150	200	-50	open	—	03-09 05:39
elon musk of tweets march 27 april 3 260 279	3	$202	200	200	+0	open	—	04-03 15:51
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	4	$190	550	550	+0	open	—	05-28 14:38
nba sas mia 2026 03 23 spread away 4pt5	3	$185	211	0	+211	open	—	03-24 00:33
elon musk of tweets march 10 march 17 280 299	3	$178	200	200	+0	open	—	03-17 15:08
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	4	$178	300	187	+113	open	—	04-16 13:15
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	2	$154	120	120	+0	open	—	04-20 07:50
elon musk of tweets february 20 february 27 300 319	9	$149	123	123	-0	open	—	02-27 09:13
elon musk of tweets march 17 march 24 380 399	14	$134	499	372	+127	open	—	03-24 12:55
elon musk of tweets february 3 february 10 420 439	2	$134	70	70	+0	open	—	02-05 07:38
elon musk of tweets january 30 february 6 380 399	3	$132	69	69	+0	open	—	02-05 04:36
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	6	$130	280	280	+0	No	$-40	04-28 10:08
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	3	$130	200	409	-209	open	—	06-12 21:32
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	2	$127	192	192	+0	open	—	04-18 19:06
elon musk of tweets january 30 february 6 240 259	2	$127	65	65	+0	open	—	02-04 01:47
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	4	$124	200	200	+0	open	—	06-12 15:13

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-02 23:52:54	btc updown 5m 1785714600	Up	SELL	9	70¢	$7	0x50c610…
08-02 23:52:11	btc updown 5m 1785714600	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0xda7742…
08-02 23:40:42	btc updown 5m 1785714000	Down	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0x075c55…
08-02 23:31:11	btc updown 5m 1785713400	Up	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0x14111a…
08-02 23:26:17	btc updown 5m 1785713100	Up	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0xf898d7…
08-02 23:24:21	btc updown 5m 1785712800	Down	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0xdf9820…
08-02 23:23:56	btc updown 5m 1785712800	Down	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x816938…
08-02 23:15:24	btc updown 5m 1785712500	Up	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0xf6ed53…
08-02 23:14:51	eth updown 5m 1785712200	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x4fa67f…
08-02 23:07:56	btc updown 5m 1785711900	Down	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0xab18b6…
08-02 23:04:50	btc updown 5m 1785711600	Down	SELL	6	8¢	$1	0xadd208…
08-02 23:01:05	btc updown 5m 1785711600	Down	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0xd6c348…
08-02 22:49:12	eth updown 5m 1785710700	Down	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xb1a1f0…
08-02 22:49:02	eth updown 5m 1785710700	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x29ce0b…
08-02 22:42:36	eth updown 5m 1785710400	Up	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x2db57b…
08-02 22:35:18	btc updown 5m 1785710100	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xefde99…
08-02 22:27:11	eth updown 5m 1785709500	Down	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x0d22c0…
08-02 22:26:36	eth updown 5m 1785709500	Down	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0xc30d27…
08-02 22:21:21	eth updown 5m 1785709200	Down	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0xe47cd8…
08-02 22:16:47	eth updown 5m 1785708900	Up	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0x6faeee…
08-02 22:14:56	btc updown 5m 1785708600	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x6029d0…
08-02 22:14:53	btc updown 5m 1785708600	Down	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x55ba98…
08-02 22:09:27	btc updown 5m 1785708300	Up	SELL	20	20¢	$4	0x7767b8…
08-02 22:07:15	btc updown 5m 1785708300	Up	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0x83b877…
08-02 22:06:20	btc updown 5m 1785708300	Up	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x3a7285…
08-02 22:01:53	btc updown 5m 1785708000	Up	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x1039df…
08-02 21:57:17	btc updown 5m 1785707700	Down	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x4e7fd9…
08-02 21:52:38	btc updown 5m 1785707400	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x73ceb8…
08-02 21:47:33	eth updown 5m 1785707100	Up	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0xd8de16…
08-02 21:47:29	eth updown 5m 1785707100	Up	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0xe2c5e9…
08-02 13:19:15	cs2 ts7 mouz 2026 08 02	Spirit	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0xc35077…
08-02 12:19:17	cs2 ts7 mouz 2026 08 02	Spirit	SELL	8	28¢	$2	0x4c2ae5…
08-02 11:40:17	cs2 ts7 mouz 2026 08 02	Spirit	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x29d5bd…
08-02 11:24:29	cs2 ts7 mouz 2026 08 02	MOUZ	SELL	8	41¢	$3	0x39036b…
08-02 11:22:14	cs2 ts7 mouz 2026 08 02	MOUZ	SELL	7	42¢	$3	0x952697…
08-02 11:06:56	cs2 ts7 mouz 2026 08 02	MOUZ	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0xb4589e…
08-02 11:05:09	cs2 ts7 mouz 2026 08 02	MOUZ	SELL	17	31¢	$5	0xff93f6…
08-02 10:44:39	cs2 ts7 mouz 2026 08 02	MOUZ	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0xbe502f…
08-02 03:48:35	val lev1 nrg 2026 08 01	NRG	SELL	2	64¢	$1	0xdfa022…
08-02 03:36:38	val lev1 nrg 2026 08 01	NRG	SELL	6	12¢	$1	0xc1d1dc…
08-02 03:18:00	val lev1 nrg 2026 08 01	NRG	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0x543c03…
08-02 03:16:56	val lev1 nrg 2026 08 01	NRG	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x259093…
08-01 10:51:11	cs2 btf blackp 2026 08 01	Butterfly	SELL	14	52¢	$7	0xd1a03e…
08-01 10:51:06	cs2 btf blackp 2026 08 01	Butterfly	SELL	21	52¢	$11	0xce2165…
08-01 10:51:05	cs2 btf blackp 2026 08 01	Butterfly	SELL	3	52¢	$2	0xd88b34…
08-01 10:25:24	cs2 btf blackp 2026 08 01	Butterfly	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0x1a01b9…
08-01 09:59:33	cs2 btf blackp 2026 08 01	Butterfly	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0xd7e87c…
08-01 09:59:14	cs2 btf blackp 2026 08 01	Black Phoenix	SELL	16	41¢	$7	0xb57429…
08-01 09:52:20	cs2 btf blackp 2026 08 01	Black Phoenix	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x7abf04…
08-01 09:49:33	cs2 btf blackp 2026 08 01	Black Phoenix	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xbf7a0a…
08-01 09:46:02	cs2 btf blackp 2026 08 01	Black Phoenix	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x65b3e1…
08-01 09:43:59	cs2 wal2 lc 2026 08 01	Lazer Cats	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0xc6be3b…
08-01 09:38:06	cs2 wal2 lc 2026 08 01	Walczaki	SELL	8	49¢	$4	0x12137e…
08-01 09:37:47	cs2 wal2 lc 2026 08 01	Lazer Cats	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x589a91…
08-01 09:27:00	cs2 wal2 lc 2026 08 01	Walczaki	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0x359d6a…
08-01 08:54:41	cs2 ence havu 2026 08 01	HAVU	SELL	11	20¢	$2	0x0f04d5…
08-01 08:16:54	cs2 ence havu 2026 08 01	HAVU	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x8434cf…
08-01 08:08:14	cs2 ence havu 2026 08 01	HAVU	BUY	6	49¢	$3	0x06c68c…
07-31 16:47:11	cs2 k271 justpl 2026 07 31	K27	BUY	10	17¢	$2	0x497d99…
07-31 16:39:24	cs2 lavked meg1 2026 07 31	megoshort	SELL	7	86¢	$6	0x0cc6f5…
07-31 16:23:59	cs2 lavked meg1 2026 07 31	megoshort	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0x3b64dd…
07-01 00:49:46	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	Yes	SELL	60	95¢	$57	0x5cdaae…
06-22 05:00:38	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	Yes	BUY	60	49¢	$29	0x47e1ed…
06-17 01:12:16	fifwc arg alg 2026 06 16 spread home 1pt5	Algeria	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0x21861d…
06-15 08:53:55	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	300	6¢	$18	0x8cfb40…
06-15 04:12:00	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	300	7¢	$21	0x727950…
06-15 04:03:27	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	200	17¢	$35	0xe63149…
06-15 04:00:36	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	200	18¢	$36	0x56cf9a…
06-14 22:58:39	Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?	No	SELL	110	23¢	$26	0x1629a2…
06-12 21:32:49	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	SELL	200	17¢	$34	0x2387cd…
06-12 15:13:13	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	Yes	SELL	100	10¢	$10	0x8eae50…
06-12 08:21:33	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	Yes	SELL	100	40¢	$40	0xdfd618…
06-03 09:11:26	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	Yes	BUY	100	37¢	$37	0x0a155e…
06-03 09:11:12	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	200	21¢	$42	0x3a5fa4…
06-03 09:10:43	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	Yes	BUY	100	37¢	$37	0x8eb968…
06-01 19:09:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	SELL	9	20¢	$2	0xa2561a…
06-01 19:08:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x603750…
06-01 19:07:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	SELL	17	28¢	$5	0x79b0ce…
06-01 19:06:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x31bf00…
06-01 19:05:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Up	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x1aa560…
06-01 16:36:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Down	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0xb42159…
06-01 16:36:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Down	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0x7c1cd9…
06-01 16:36:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	42	12¢	$5	0x5d61af…
06-01 08:47:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	95	26¢	$25	0x06afad…
05-30 06:54:30	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?	Yes	SELL	89	44¢	$39	0x84586a…
05-30 06:54:21	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	SELL	209	26¢	$54	0x64b5f0…
05-29 05:21:02	Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?	No	BUY	23	36¢	$8	0x0a29b2…
05-28 18:45:05	Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?	No	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x80cf1b…
05-28 16:51:09	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?	Yes	BUY	89	56¢	$50	0x573ccc…
05-28 14:38:27	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	550	13¢	$72	0x746be9…
05-28 07:16:20	Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch?	No	BUY	84	36¢	$30	0x7471cc…
05-27 12:03:00	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	20¢	$60	0xa7a4e7…
05-26 04:23:15	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	23¢	$23	0x8f3d6b…
05-25 04:20:40	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	150	24¢	$36	0xd83de6…
05-24 06:00:20	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	SELL	111	7¢	$8	0x764a66…
05-24 02:55:58	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	BUY	111	18¢	$20	0x85300b…
05-20 12:51:29	Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	BUY	70	30¢	$21	0x728a16…
05-20 10:23:25	Geneva Open: Cameron Norrie vs Mariano Navone	Cameron Norrie	SELL	32	16¢	$5	0xd9ae13…
05-20 09:30:35	Geneva Open: Cameron Norrie vs Mariano Navone	Cameron Norrie	BUY	32	31¢	$10	0x26da55…
05-19 13:01:37	Hamburg European Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Vit Kopriva	Vit Kopriva	BUY	77	13¢	$10	0xd624cd…