Flawed-Substitution — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$267

Unrealized P&L

-$25

Hit rate

77.0%

Resolved

1,407

Trades

1,772

lifetime

Volume

$16.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-22

last 08-26 02:54

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 54 days

Categories

Crypto

61% 84% -$52

Other

24% 57% -$19

Sports

14% 53% -$199

Politics

2% 80% +$4

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	No		+42	$25	0¢	$0	-$25	04-30 14:43

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-18 04:35 UTC	2	$214	118	116	+1	Up	+$15	04-18 04:39
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27?	3	$157	107	106	+1	Yes	+$28	04-27 19:46
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-18 04:30 UTC	2	$150	182	0	+182	Down	+$32	04-18 04:34
nba gsw phx 2026 04 17	2	$128	82	81	+1	Suns	+$29	04-18 04:27
lal rea rso 2026 02 14 rea	2	$127	82	82	+0	Yes	+$27	02-14 20:36
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-15 00:55 UTC	11	$125	99	96	+3	Up	+$24	02-15 00:59
nba orl det 2026 04 22	3	$113	64	63	+0	Pistons	+$14	04-23 02:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-18 04:55 UTC	2	$100	122	0	+122	Up	+$22	04-18 04:58
efa liv bha 2026 02 14 liv	2	$92	59	59	+0	Yes	+$18	02-14 21:16
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-18 15:10 UTC	3	$91	67	40	+27	Up	-$19	04-18 15:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-18 05:00 UTC	1	$90	93	0	+93	Up	+$3	04-18 05:04
Will US Lecce win on 2026-05-01?	2	$87	62	62	+0	Yes	+$37	05-01 20:54
highest temperature in london on january 26 6c	3	$84	44	44	+0	Yes	+$4	01-27 02:12
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-14 21:25 UTC	3	$83	84	50	+34	Down	+$26	02-14 21:30
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	2	$80	217	0	+217	Yes	-$80	01-28 22:56
epl new bou 2026 04 18 total 2pt5	2	$75	51	50	+1	Over	+$26	04-18 16:34
epl mac ars 2026 04 19 total 2pt5	2	$75	51	50	+1	Over	+$26	04-19 18:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-18 03:35 UTC	2	$75	143	0	+143	Down	+$31	04-18 03:36
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-18 05:25 UTC	2	$75	87	0	+87	Down	+$12	04-18 05:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-18 04:50 UTC	2	$75	80	0	+80	Up	+$5	04-18 04:54
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-15 00:50 UTC	5	$74	56	55	+1	Up	+$15	02-15 00:53
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Timberwolves vs. Nuggets	2	$73	57	57	+0	Wolves	-$27	04-26 16:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-15 00:35 UTC	2	$73	46	46	+1	Down	+$14	02-15 00:39
epl new bou 2026 04 18 draw	2	$73	100	98	+2	No	+$23	04-18 15:30
epl mac ars 2026 04 19 btts	2	$72	48	47	+1	Yes	+$23	04-19 18:14
epl mac ars 2026 04 19 mac	2	$71	47	46	+1	Yes	+$22	04-19 18:14
epl new bou 2026 04 18 new	3	$70	361	0	+361	No	-$70	04-18 14:58
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-18 03:55 UTC	4	$70	91	0	+91	Down	-$6	04-18 04:00
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02?	2	$68	44	44	+0	Yes	+$18	05-02 20:43
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-02?	2	$68	48	48	+0	Yes	+$18	05-02 15:18

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-26 02:54:19	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on August 26?	Yes	BUY	29	34¢	$10	0x2e619a…
08-26 02:51:36	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 26?	Yes	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x3a5e42…
08-26 02:48:10	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on August 26?	Yes	BUY	133	8¢	$10	0x016746…
08-25 19:21:33	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 26?	Yes	SELL	25	50¢	$12	0x837304…
08-25 16:37:15	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 25?	Yes	SELL	22	28¢	$6	0xd5ddce…
08-25 16:30:16	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 25?	Yes	BUY	21	35¢	$7	0x27cfb1…
08-25 05:13:34	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 26?	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xa7dd35…
08-25 05:13:19	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 26?	Yes	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0xcb4c60…
08-25 05:13:19	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 26?	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x9f7ce7…
08-25 05:12:55	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 26?	Yes	BUY	8	40¢	$3	0x2cf076…
08-25 02:34:19	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 25?	Yes	SELL	7	50¢	$4	0xff589d…
08-24 23:37:28	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 25?	Yes	BUY	7	35¢	$3	0x1b4855…
08-24 23:17:15	bitcoin up or down on august 25 2026	Down	BUY	14	59¢	$8	0xe0fc19…
06-01 15:54:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xc1c97c…
06-01 15:49:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x92a25c…
06-01 15:23:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xefd80b…
06-01 15:14:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	89¢	$5	0x7ffbd4…
06-01 15:04:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x675493…
06-01 14:59:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x0b5476…
06-01 14:54:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x2ee7f2…
06-01 14:49:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Up	SELL	5	89¢	$5	0x41112a…
06-01 14:49:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xf6b1aa…
06-01 14:44:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	85¢	$5	0xafc9d0…
06-01 14:39:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	SELL	11	35¢	$4	0x076058…
06-01 14:39:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x7d43f1…
06-01 14:34:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x7ca888…
06-01 14:29:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0x2e80a7…
06-01 14:24:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x8304b5…
06-01 14:19:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	SELL	8	43¢	$4	0x14577d…
06-01 14:19:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x83fb19…
06-01 14:13:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x615630…
06-01 14:09:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x0ff66f…
06-01 14:04:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x094af2…
06-01 13:54:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x8fd3ff…
06-01 13:49:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	SELL	5	73¢	$4	0x7efca3…
06-01 13:49:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x58dc7f…
06-01 13:49:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x657022…
06-01 13:23:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x92b0eb…
06-01 13:10:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xfe7caa…
06-01 13:09:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xff6421…
06-01 12:59:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xded042…
06-01 12:54:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	SELL	5	32¢	$2	0xb1e1c3…
06-01 12:54:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x25cd5a…
06-01 12:43:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xdf227d…
06-01 12:39:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x7aa4bb…
06-01 12:29:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x39e7a0…
06-01 11:40:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x261b73…
06-01 11:38:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0x15f587…
06-01 11:34:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x58ba2a…
06-01 11:29:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xe17086…
06-01 11:23:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x0c862d…
06-01 11:18:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	85¢	$5	0x9b39cb…
06-01 11:13:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x553c31…
06-01 11:04:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x0c844f…
06-01 10:59:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0xca3e03…
06-01 10:54:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x0b4175…
06-01 10:48:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xabcd4c…
06-01 10:44:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0xf0e039…
06-01 10:39:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Down	SELL	5	41¢	$2	0x0377ca…
06-01 10:39:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0xe15610…
06-01 10:33:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x14820b…
06-01 10:29:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0xa6c06c…
06-01 10:18:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Down	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x6dbd91…
06-01 10:14:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xd2b1d8…
06-01 09:53:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xcb2b7a…
06-01 09:44:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x060e7c…
06-01 09:39:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	86¢	$5	0xf12b3c…
06-01 09:19:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x657298…
06-01 09:13:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x7e612a…
06-01 08:49:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Up	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x93f3d0…
06-01 08:49:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x9969ca…
06-01 08:44:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x48c545…
06-01 08:24:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x200d31…
06-01 08:19:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x54d413…
06-01 08:14:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0xa6f0b5…
06-01 08:08:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x3fc4d5…
06-01 08:04:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	89¢	$5	0xbb4418…
06-01 07:59:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	SELL	6	29¢	$2	0xe7ca06…
06-01 07:59:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0xd669c8…
06-01 07:54:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xb27847…
06-01 07:39:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x1ee710…
06-01 07:20:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Down	SELL	6	55¢	$3	0x3eefe9…
06-01 07:19:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Down	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x380d2c…
06-01 07:04:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xbca31f…
06-01 06:59:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x23de70…
06-01 06:48:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0x44a052…
06-01 06:43:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x2a16e5…
06-01 06:39:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xc48371…
06-01 06:34:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Up	SELL	5	71¢	$4	0x14bf87…
06-01 06:33:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	69¢	$4	0x71ce20…
06-01 06:29:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xd793fc…
06-01 06:24:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x10d528…
06-01 06:13:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xd1c636…
06-01 06:09:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x31e455…
06-01 06:04:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xe2e72f…
06-01 04:33:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x5b990f…
06-01 04:29:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	86¢	$5	0x936613…
06-01 04:24:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x2058b3…
06-01 04:04:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x8e6047…
06-01 03:49:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Up	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x9858a8…