Well-Informed-Sampan — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$457

Unrealized P&L

+$38

Hit rate

41.6%

Resolved

379

Trades

529

lifetime

Volume

$27.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$52

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-03

last 09-10 17:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 85 days

Categories

Other

56% 28% +$927

Politics

34% 27% -$1,539

Sports

5% 34% -$254

Crypto

3% 39% +$55

Pop-Culture

1% 17% +$40

Tech

1% 67% +$314

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes		-273	-$41	1¢	$-3	+$38	05-17 17:24

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	4	$2.4K	1,928	1,928	+0	Yes	-$54	03-19 19:37
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	5	$2.2K	2,676	2,676	+0	No	-$294	09-10 17:49
another us government shutdown by february 14	2	$2.1K	2,223	2,223	+0	No	+$1,254	02-13 10:14
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	3	$1.8K	2,828	0	+2,828	Yes	+$1,052	03-19 19:44
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	1	$984	0	1,002	-1,002	No	-$18	05-17 17:24
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	3	$749	1,269	1,269	+0	Yes	-$746	03-01 15:57
will donald trump not announce a new nominee for chair of the federal reserve before february 2026	3	$648	886	297	+589	No	-$212	01-07 22:15
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	2	$577	436	436	+0	Yes	+$237	03-01 23:31
will israel strike lebanon on january 9 2026	3	$517	391	391	+0	Yes	+$257	01-09 11:01
will donald trump announce a new nominee for chair of the federal reserve by january 31 2026 849 849 957 245	3	$423	1,112	191	+921	Yes	-$277	01-25 23:30
will starmer say mr speaker 15 times during the next prime ministers questions	1	$400	445	0	+445	Yes	+$45	02-24 22:21
elon musk of tweets february 23 february 25 90 114	2	$372	556	267	+289	No	-$228	02-25 02:15
will starmer say rules based during the next prime ministers questions	3	$368	539	191	+348	No	+$26	02-25 12:27
elon musk of tweets december 30 january 6 520 539	2	$305	468	0	+468	Yes	+$110	01-06 16:43
wing quarterly earnings gaap eps 02 18 2026 0pt84	1	$300	1,041	0	+1,041	Yes	-$300	02-18 12:13
will olivia dean win best new artist at the 68th annual grammy awards	1	$300	398	0	+398	Yes	+$98	02-01 22:46
will starmer say reform 3 times during the next prime ministers questions	1	$300	379	0	+379	Yes	-$300	02-25 12:03
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	2	$258	441	207	+233	No	-$142	03-11 20:32
will keir starmer say reform 4 times during the next prime ministers questions 698	3	$240	281	0	+281	Yes	-$34	01-07 12:04
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?	1	$238	286	0	+286	Yes	+$48	04-11 13:35
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	2	$230	421	421	+0	No	-$10	05-17 17:23
will lus marques mendes win the 2026 portugal presidential election	4	$230	276	276	+0	No	-$130	01-12 07:53
Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting?	2	$227	180	180	+0	No	+$127	04-11 13:27
will israel strike greater beirut by march 31	5	$217	629	629	+0	Yes	-$163	03-01 23:33
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-25 00:55 UTC	1	$200	210	0	+210	Down	+$10	02-25 00:58
will trump say biden 10 times during the 2026 state of the union address 599	2	$186	156	156	+0	No	-$14	02-25 02:21
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	2	$186	131	131	+0	Yes	+$26	03-02 16:15
efa cha3 cfc 2026 01 10 cfc	3	$167	178	52	+126	Yes	+$33	01-10 19:31
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	3	$162	238	120	+118	No	+$81	04-17 13:36
will mia be played at the super bowl halftime show	4	$158	391	0	+391	No	-$158	02-07 14:48

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-10 17:49:39	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	899	36¢	$324	0xf4a026…
09-10 17:49:19	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	284	36¢	$102	0x405f14…
09-10 17:49:06	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	556	36¢	$200	0x4d705d…
09-10 17:48:55	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	936	36¢	$337	0x6ee69c…
08-28 17:08:07	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,676	47¢	$1,257	0x99ce1c…
05-17 17:24:05	Will Faye die in Euphoria: Season 3?	Yes	SELL	79	8¢	$6	0xecba01…
05-17 17:24:02	Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	273	15¢	$41	0xf432e9…
05-17 17:24:00	Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	1,002	98¢	$984	0xaae777…
05-17 17:23:53	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	421	26¢	$110	0x480512…
05-17 15:58:20	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	421	29¢	$120	0x81ade3…
05-06 19:17:12	Will Faye die in Euphoria: Season 3?	Yes	BUY	79	25¢	$20	0x30065f…
05-06 19:11:55	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?	Yes	BUY	103	39¢	$40	0x234f65…
05-06 19:06:14	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?	Yes	BUY	108	37¢	$40	0x9c00a3…
05-06 19:03:07	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	294	2¢	$7	0xda2d62…
04-26 01:03:56	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 26?	Yes	BUY	46	22¢	$10	0x7ff600…
04-21 15:42:26	will starmer say mr speaker 20 times during the next prime ministers questions event 695	Yes	BUY	130	85¢	$110	0x8f9366…
04-17 13:36:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	120	52¢	$62	0x14ac75…
04-17 13:35:10	will trump say peanut this week april 19	Yes	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0xa9ec01…
04-17 13:33:56	will trump say no no no during tpusa events on april 17	Yes	BUY	60	48¢	$29	0x2ab227…
04-17 13:33:00	will trump say million or billion or trillion 30 times during tpusa events on april 17	Yes	BUY	78	38¢	$30	0x3dd8a0…
04-17 13:31:30	will trump say make america great again this week april 19	No	BUY	137	36¢	$50	0xb411a3…
04-17 13:28:56	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	294	10¢	$30	0x6b4f50…
04-17 13:25:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	119	42¢	$50	0x9249ef…
04-17 13:25:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	119	42¢	$50	0x623e78…
04-15 19:26:58	ucl bay1 rma1 2026 04 15 rma1	Yes	SELL	222	20¢	$44	0xe692b4…
04-15 18:57:46	ucl bay1 rma1 2026 04 15 rma1	Yes	BUY	227	22¢	$50	0xf75681…
04-12 19:27:43	hungary election tisza wins a constitutional majority	No	SELL	174	8¢	$13	0x4a741b…
04-12 18:52:09	hungary election tisza wins a constitutional majority	No	BUY	180	10¢	$18	0xbf195b…
04-12 18:45:55	will our homeland movement mi haznk win at least one seat in the next hungarian parliamentary election	No	SELL	105	17¢	$18	0xdacaac…
04-11 13:35:13	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	286	83¢	$238	0x35e340…
04-11 13:28:23	will our homeland movement mi haznk win at least one seat in the next hungarian parliamentary election	No	BUY	105	38¢	$40	0xab2911…
04-11 13:27:27	Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	180	98¢	$177	0x4f4e4d…
04-07 20:50:11	trump announces hormuz deadline extension today	Yes	BUY	101	60¢	$61	0xafbadb…
04-07 20:46:17	Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	91	67¢	$61	0xcd6d36…
03-19 19:44:03	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	843	64¢	$540	0x1c3b9e…
03-19 19:42:19	highest temperature in atlanta on march 20 2026 78 79f	Yes	BUY	36	19¢	$7	0x9c22de…
03-19 19:39:23	will starmer say reform during the next prime ministers questions event	No	BUY	229	35¢	$80	0xb59466…
03-19 19:37:49	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	Yes	SELL	540	73¢	$394	0x4facfc…
03-17 13:06:17	highest temperature in tel aviv on march 18 2026 28c	Yes	BUY	104	38¢	$40	0xdc24f4…
03-17 13:01:29	will starmer say iran during the next prime ministers questions event 944	No	BUY	263	5¢	$12	0xa567e3…
03-11 20:32:51	ucl psg1 cfc1 2026 03 11 psg1	Yes	BUY	126	48¢	$61	0xb465db…
03-11 20:32:35	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	Yes	SELL	207	28¢	$58	0x43a9c6…
03-11 20:18:35	ucl psg1 cfc1 2026 03 11 btts	No	BUY	179	28¢	$50	0x740bad…
03-11 20:15:31	will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	SELL	85	63¢	$53	0x6e9626…
03-10 12:11:59	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	1,355	62¢	$840	0xdaf4b1…
03-10 12:11:45	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	Yes	SELL	1,388	56¢	$777	0x211b96…
03-04 15:59:53	will michael b jordan win best actor at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	158	32¢	$50	0x73b4a1…
03-04 15:57:31	Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	455	2¢	$9	0x019492…
03-04 15:57:29	will crude oil cl hit high 90 by end of march 124 949 438 563 647 712 323	Yes	SELL	0	40¢	$0	0xd2c208…
03-04 15:57:11	will starmer say reform 3 times during the next prime ministers questions 431	No	SELL	44	100¢	$44	0x9be823…
03-04 12:09:37	will starmer say reform 3 times during the next prime ministers questions 431	No	BUY	44	55¢	$24	0x9b125e…
03-02 16:34:03	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	Yes	BUY	709	60¢	$425	0x486c13…
03-02 16:23:21	wix quarterly earnings nongaap eps 02 18 2026 1pt47	No	SELL	109	19¢	$21	0x670d83…
03-02 16:21:55	will crude oil cl hit high 90 by end of march 124 949 438 563 647 712 323	Yes	SELL	114	33¢	$37	0xa534a9…
03-02 16:21:43	will crude oil cl hit high 90 by end of march 124 949 438 563 647 712 323	Yes	BUY	114	35¢	$40	0x9a6825…
03-02 16:20:29	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	Yes	BUY	1,219	66¢	$800	0x7bbbd2…
03-02 16:18:19	highest temperature in nyc on march 2 2026 30 31f	Yes	BUY	104	29¢	$30	0x32831c…
03-02 16:15:59	Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	Yes	SELL	131	80¢	$106	0x89a116…
03-02 16:15:55	will israel strike lebanon on march 1 2026	No	SELL	96	99¢	$95	0x0d6bc2…
03-02 16:15:37	bynd quarterly earnings gaap eps 02 25 2026 neg0pt08	No	SELL	204	21¢	$43	0x3cfe96…
03-02 16:14:53	Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?	Yes	SELL	54	58¢	$32	0x888d38…
03-02 16:14:49	will global temperature increase by between 1pt15c and 1pt19c in february 2026 838	Yes	SELL	47	58¢	$27	0x174e93…
03-02 16:14:21	will franck allisio win the marseille mayor election	Yes	SELL	95	13¢	$12	0xbb8f68…
03-02 16:12:35	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	Yes	BUY	441	45¢	$200	0x3e61c2…
03-01 23:39:33	Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	Yes	SELL	53	33¢	$17	0xe57cae…
03-01 23:34:37	usd korean won exchange rate hits 1500 by march 31	Yes	SELL	65	9¢	$6	0x3a1e15…
03-01 23:34:27	will the los angeles clippers make the nba playoffs	Yes	SELL	15	41¢	$6	0x445c02…
03-01 23:34:19	no change in the selic rate after bank of brazils march 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	83	6¢	$5	0x4ad3ee…
03-01 23:34:17	will israel strike lebanon on march 2 2026	No	SELL	98	4¢	$4	0xd68adb…
03-01 23:34:15	will trump visit greenland by march 31	Yes	SELL	150	3¢	$4	0x8c6db3…
03-01 23:34:11	maduro exiled to qatar by march 31	Yes	SELL	333	1¢	$2	0x90c846…
03-01 23:34:09	us x iran ceasefire by march 2	Yes	SELL	217	2¢	$3	0xac110c…
03-01 23:34:07	will stateside zara larsson pinkpantheress zara larsson be the 1 song on spotify this week	Yes	SELL	93	3¢	$3	0xc67769…
03-01 23:33:57	Will Emma rank #1 among girl names on the SSA’s official list for 2025?	Yes	SELL	34	2¢	$1	0xfa71e5…
03-01 23:33:53	us x iran ceasefire by march 6	Yes	SELL	1	13¢	$0	0xf9f6d3…
03-01 23:33:51	will israel strike greater beirut by march 31	No	SELL	0	7¢	$0	0x5d3655…
03-01 23:33:45	will waller dissent the next fed decision	Yes	SELL	56	53¢	$30	0x4884a9…
03-01 23:31:21	Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	SELL	436	93¢	$407	0xce09c3…
03-01 23:31:07	will israel strike greater beirut by march 31	No	SELL	629	4¢	$27	0x769ad7…
03-01 15:57:25	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	SELL	1,269	0¢	$1	0x5d9956…
02-28 16:21:51	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	BUY	713	49¢	$348	0xaaec9b…
02-28 15:17:19	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	630	63¢	$397	0xef72c4…
02-28 15:16:39	will israel strike lebanon on march 2 2026	No	BUY	98	36¢	$35	0xa95d6b…
02-28 15:16:17	will israel strike lebanon on march 1 2026	No	BUY	96	36¢	$35	0x345a40…
02-28 15:15:39	will stateside zara larsson pinkpantheress zara larsson be the 1 song on spotify this week	Yes	BUY	93	86¢	$80	0x37cb0a…
02-28 15:14:59	wix quarterly earnings nongaap eps 02 18 2026 1pt47	No	BUY	109	37¢	$40	0xba21f6…
02-28 15:02:35	will israel strike greater beirut by march 31	No	BUY	286	35¢	$100	0xea1b5c…
02-28 15:01:47	us x iran ceasefire by march 6	Yes	SELL	128	20¢	$26	0xfb5097…
02-28 15:01:25	us x iran ceasefire by march 6	Yes	BUY	129	27¢	$35	0xc746b1…
02-28 15:01:21	us x iran ceasefire by march 2	Yes	BUY	217	7¢	$15	0x1845e3…
02-28 15:00:37	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	BUY	556	72¢	$400	0x020e3c…
02-25 12:27:40	will starmer say rules based during the next prime ministers questions	No	BUY	348	90¢	$315	0x8455b4…
02-25 12:27:30	will starmer say rules based during the next prime ministers questions	Yes	SELL	191	12¢	$23	0x2016a3…
02-25 12:23:36	will starmer say green during the next prime ministers questions	No	BUY	130	77¢	$100	0x4f3ba8…
02-25 12:23:00	will starmer say brexit during the next prime ministers questions	Yes	SELL	108	9¢	$10	0xbd30d7…
02-25 12:10:50	will starmer say mandelson during the next prime ministers questions	No	BUY	18	27¢	$5	0x06e812…
02-25 12:07:12	will starmer say mandelson during the next prime ministers questions	No	BUY	291	34¢	$100	0x4bfc97…
02-25 12:05:42	will starmer say brexit during the next prime ministers questions	Yes	BUY	108	28¢	$30	0x0b4a20…
02-25 12:04:14	will starmer say artificial intelligence or ai during the next prime ministers questions	No	BUY	118	85¢	$100	0x102b3a…
02-25 12:03:40	will starmer say reform 3 times during the next prime ministers questions	No	BUY	379	79¢	$300	0x9b955e…