Shocking-Cummerbund — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$118

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

54.3%

Resolved

Trades

1,094

lifetime

Volume

$89.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$82

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-07

last 08-07 12:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 11 days

Categories

Other

51% 100% +$24

Politics

40% — —

Sports

8% 30% $-143

Crypto

1% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

42 active days in 12wk • peak 62 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	96	$20.8K	18,190	18,020	+170	open	—	05-15 08:50
Spirit Airlines shutdown/liquidation by May 31?	2	$12.6K	6,304	6,304	+0	open	—	05-02 06:32
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	149	$6.6K	73,618	34,881	+38,737	open	—	05-17 17:46
James Comey arrested by April 29?	2	$4.1K	4,960	0	+4,960	open	—	04-29 16:58
Trump weaponization fund blocked by May 31?	9	$3.0K	3,132	0	+3,132	open	—	05-29 15:06
will rory mcilroy win the 2026 masters tournament	5	$2.1K	1,206	1,206	+0	open	—	04-12 22:52
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	14	$2.0K	12,043	11,249	+795	open	—	06-16 20:15
Trump weaponization fund blocked by June 30?	7	$1.8K	2,113	0	+2,113	open	—	05-29 14:13
Trump out as President by April 30?	12	$1.6K	46,397	46,397	+0	open	—	04-08 01:30
will the us iran deal be physically signed by june 30 20260615222831705	6	$1.6K	2,235	2,235	+0	open	—	06-17 21:35
iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	9	$1.5K	3,706	4,225	-519	open	—	06-17 23:23
israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	9	$1.5K	5,095	5,466	-371	open	—	06-26 21:55
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	18	$1.4K	6,263	6,631	-368	open	—	06-15 17:22
us and iran sign an agreement by june 15 2026 20260611221049851	9	$1.3K	840	840	+0	open	—	06-15 14:15
will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	9	$1.2K	3,800	4,007	-207	open	—	06-17 12:40
will trump announce location or date of us and iran deal signing by june 13 2026 20260611220122298	9	$1.2K	11,739	511	+11,228	open	—	06-13 18:26
Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?	7	$1.1K	4,462	4,462	+0	open	—	08-07 12:50
James Comey arrested by May 15?	1	$1.1K	1,311	0	+1,311	open	—	04-29 12:40
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during events with Xi Jinping?	8	$1.0K	581	581	+0	open	—	05-15 08:47
trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	10	$904	9,687	11,941	-2,255	open	—	06-23 18:38
us and iran sign an agreement by june 22 2026 20260611221049852	8	$889	1,826	3,460	-1,634	open	—	06-15 13:56
Dean Wade: Points O/U 0.5	2	$760	946	0	+946	open	—	05-19 10:55
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?	4	$687	1,888	1,888	+0	open	—	07-19 05:53
will the us iran deal be physically signed by june 19 2026 20260615222831704	2	$594	467	467	+0	open	—	06-17 22:07
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?	5	$544	345	345	+0	open	—	06-03 11:19
will jaxson dart attend any game at the 2026 nba finals 20260601230730827	22	$536	3,523	0	+3,523	open	—	06-09 00:23
scotus upholds trans sports bans 20260615184841389	4	$536	269	269	+0	open	—	07-02 14:33
us and iran sign an agreement by june 30 2026 20260611221049853	4	$506	3,289	5,824	-2,535	open	—	06-15 13:56
will trump agree to iranian oil sanction relief by june 30	6	$465	10,057	0	+10,057	open	—	06-16 21:46
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?	5	$421	300	300	+0	open	—	05-14 09:39

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-07 12:51:04	will the loser of the michigan democratic senate primary endorse the winner by august 31 20260803145642550	Yes	SELL	351	98¢	$344	0x2d02cc…
08-07 12:50:07	Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?	Yes	SELL	2,812	12¢	$333	0x37cde7…
08-07 08:19:34	Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?	Yes	SELL	850	14¢	$118	0x39ea8d…
08-07 02:44:57	Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?	Yes	SELL	400	16¢	$62	0x5e4b55…
08-06 13:24:50	Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,164	13¢	$150	0x36529a…
08-06 13:24:15	Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?	Yes	BUY	2,082	12¢	$250	0x29b398…
08-06 13:23:35	Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,216	12¢	$140	0x542f62…
07-29 23:53:33	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	SELL	38	50¢	$19	0x907609…
07-28 14:55:34	iran military action against a gulf state on july 23 20260708212322948	No	SELL	45	98¢	$44	0x8107c8…
07-27 03:45:18	iran military action against a gulf state on july 23 20260708212322948	No	BUY	45	62¢	$28	0x5e3e9f…
07-25 14:28:01	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	38	65¢	$25	0xa6acac…
07-25 11:50:48	iran military action against a gulf state on july 25 20260708212322950	Yes	SELL	143	26¢	$37	0x70d3d0…
07-25 02:10:22	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	No	SELL	21	38¢	$8	0xe1972a…
07-25 02:07:16	will there be saudi arabian military action against yemen by july 24 2026 20260714210903832	Yes	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0x814839…
07-25 02:05:39	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	28	44¢	$12	0xccf4f2…
07-25 02:02:13	iran military action against a gulf state on july 25 20260708212322950	Yes	BUY	143	59¢	$84	0xc88985…
07-24 11:56:46	iran military action against a gulf state on july 24 20260708212322949	Yes	SELL	4	45¢	$2	0x16d8d7…
07-24 11:56:37	iran military action against a gulf state on july 24 20260708212322949	Yes	SELL	44	49¢	$21	0x3cb05c…
07-24 11:56:19	iran military action against a gulf state on july 24 20260708212322949	Yes	SELL	1	55¢	$0	0x7e412b…
07-24 11:51:51	iran military action against a gulf state on july 24 20260708212322949	Yes	SELL	264	58¢	$154	0x1361aa…
07-24 08:26:55	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	SELL	809	8¢	$65	0xd44448…
07-24 08:16:37	iran military action against a gulf state on july 24 20260708212322949	Yes	BUY	27	75¢	$20	0xeb055d…
07-24 08:00:06	iran military action against a gulf state on july 24 20260708212322949	Yes	BUY	71	70¢	$50	0x823b16…
07-24 07:59:16	iran military action against a gulf state on july 24 20260708212322949	Yes	BUY	71	70¢	$50	0xc42662…
07-24 07:58:57	iran military action against a gulf state on july 23 20260708212322948	Yes	SELL	13	74¢	$10	0x02e2c3…
07-24 07:57:57	iran military action against a gulf state on july 24 20260708212322949	Yes	BUY	143	70¢	$100	0x7a32b7…
07-24 07:54:37	iran military action against a gulf state on july 23 20260708212322948	Yes	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0x6fd39a…
07-24 07:40:39	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987	Yes	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0x8f3d68…
07-24 07:39:57	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987	No	SELL	15	64¢	$10	0x489c76…
07-24 07:39:43	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519	No	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0x516cfb…
07-24 07:39:37	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987	No	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0xf76860…
07-19 07:48:21	Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027?	Yes	SELL	525	4¢	$21	0x3590f8…
07-19 05:53:01	Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?	Yes	SELL	609	9¢	$54	0xe594d1…
07-19 03:19:46	Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?	Yes	SELL	800	10¢	$80	0x2c343b…
07-19 03:18:37	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 goals lionel messi gte1	Yes	BUY	121	34¢	$41	0x4d7bf1…
07-19 03:14:55	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 spread away 2pt5	Argentina	BUY	238	2¢	$5	0x2a3b37…
07-19 03:14:31	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 spread away 3pt5	Argentina	BUY	1,081	0¢	$5	0x422a7b…
07-19 03:11:03	Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?	Yes	SELL	479	11¢	$53	0x1caf64…
07-08 15:10:35	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586	Yes	BUY	200	25¢	$50	0x07b129…
07-08 15:06:04	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586	Yes	BUY	610	25¢	$150	0xcdbd78…
07-02 14:33:59	scotus upholds trans sports bans 20260615184841389	Yes	SELL	152	100¢	$152	0x7bac7e…
07-01 11:09:47	scotus upholds trans sports bans 20260615184841389	Yes	SELL	117	99¢	$115	0x7522a4…
07-01 03:24:05	fifwc mex ecu 2026 06 30 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	31	65¢	$20	0x7d0956…
07-01 03:21:19	fifwc mex ecu 2026 06 30 btts	Yes	BUY	26	39¢	$10	0xf93567…
07-01 03:21:01	fifwc mex ecu 2026 06 30 total 3pt5	Over	BUY	34	29¢	$10	0x9d810c…
07-01 01:28:05	scotus upholds trans sports bans 20260615184841389	Yes	BUY	229	100¢	$229	0x24268c…
06-30 14:44:26	scotus upholds trans sports bans 20260615184841389	Yes	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x7ade05…
06-26 21:55:31	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	1,969	2¢	$48	0x41ce2e…
06-26 21:55:20	israel withdraws from lebanon by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	161	26¢	$42	0x18a891…
06-26 21:55:14	israel withdraws from lebanon by august 31 2026	Yes	SELL	466	8¢	$37	0xf1143d…
06-26 21:54:37	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	Yes	SELL	187	15¢	$29	0x7801d6…
06-26 18:51:04	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	Yes	BUY	187	20¢	$37	0x78e020…
06-26 18:43:22	israel withdraws from lebanon by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	161	31¢	$50	0x936fff…
06-26 18:43:13	israel withdraws from lebanon by august 31 2026	Yes	BUY	466	11¢	$50	0x68d8c4…
06-26 14:46:56	Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,888	26¢	$500	0x74161d…
06-26 11:24:44	fifwc nor fra 2026 06 26 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	53	66¢	$35	0x249c02…
06-26 11:24:26	fifwc nor fra 2026 06 26 spread away 1pt5	France	BUY	43	35¢	$15	0x9517bc…
06-23 18:38:08	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	Yes	SELL	1,718	2¢	$43	0xa631d3…
06-22 08:39:07	will starmer say condolences during the next pmq 20260610160650647 729 941	No	BUY	116	86¢	$100	0x04c938…
06-21 06:40:05	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	Yes	BUY	1,718	4¢	$67	0x011e20…
06-19 17:18:25	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by june 30 20260607234650335	Yes	SELL	908	20¢	$182	0x316974…
06-19 16:50:07	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by june 30 20260607234650335	Yes	SELL	20	20¢	$4	0x6283b4…
06-19 13:06:59	israel x hezbollah diplomatic meeting by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	357	5¢	$17	0x6f6cc1…
06-19 13:04:47	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by june 30 20260607234650335	Yes	BUY	500	18¢	$90	0xef6a49…
06-19 13:04:08	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by june 30 20260607234650335	Yes	BUY	428	18¢	$75	0xbedb03…
06-19 13:02:16	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	Yes	SELL	4,427	4¢	$172	0x1da77c…
06-19 13:01:13	israel x hezbollah diplomatic meeting by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	357	7¢	$25	0x801062…
06-19 05:43:37	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	Yes	BUY	4,427	5¢	$220	0xa29df7…
06-19 04:46:19	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	98	8¢	$8	0xc058ed…
06-17 23:23:41	iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	Yes	SELL	2,225	12¢	$264	0x0ebd01…
06-17 23:12:58	iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	Yes	SELL	2,000	12¢	$240	0x5ee1f0…
06-17 22:07:08	will the us iran deal be physically signed by june 19 2026 20260615222831704	No	SELL	467	63¢	$294	0xa359b4…
06-17 22:02:01	will the us iran deal be physically signed by june 19 2026 20260615222831704	No	BUY	467	64¢	$300	0xd41f46…
06-17 21:35:20	will the us iran deal be physically signed by june 30 20260615222831705	No	SELL	1,676	58¢	$969	0xebf250…
06-17 21:33:46	will the us iran deal be physically signed by june 30 20260615222831705	No	SELL	559	74¢	$414	0x8dd11b…
06-17 12:40:04	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	Yes	SELL	3,007	7¢	$220	0xab4a61…
06-17 12:36:41	will the us iran deal be physically signed by june 30 20260615222831705	No	BUY	625	8¢	$49	0xb1c7d1…
06-16 21:54:59	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x09a87b…
06-16 21:54:46	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	Yes	BUY	632	6¢	$35	0x8982ab…
06-16 21:46:50	will trump agree to iranian oil sanction relief by june 30	No	BUY	1,743	3¢	$50	0x8385c6…
06-16 21:43:56	will trump agree to iranian oil sanction relief by june 30	No	BUY	1,786	3¢	$50	0x30286e…
06-16 21:43:19	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	328	17¢	$55	0x1f0c1d…
06-16 21:41:19	iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	Yes	BUY	370	27¢	$100	0x05d88c…
06-16 21:40:29	will trump agree to iranian oil sanction relief by june 30	No	BUY	2,947	3¢	$75	0x7367f0…
06-16 20:16:52	will trump agree to iranian oil sanction relief by june 30	No	BUY	1,000	9¢	$90	0x51d9fb…
06-16 20:15:22	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2,195	6¢	$132	0x40f70c…
06-16 19:38:07	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	Yes	SELL	1,296	4¢	$54	0xc17989…
06-16 19:18:46	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	Yes	SELL	2,500	4¢	$103	0xf85578…
06-16 19:17:32	will the us iran deal be physically signed by june 30 20260615222831705	No	BUY	582	13¢	$75	0x7bbaed…
06-16 19:16:52	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	641	16¢	$100	0x719815…
06-16 19:10:38	will the us iran deal be physically signed by june 30 20260615222831705	No	BUY	623	12¢	$75	0x8bc9aa…
06-16 19:09:38	will the us iran deal be physically signed by june 30 20260615222831705	No	BUY	405	10¢	$40	0x2416dd…
06-16 19:01:52	will trump agree to iranian oil sanction relief by june 30	No	BUY	625	8¢	$50	0xf2194f…
06-16 19:00:58	will trump agree to iranian oil sanction relief by june 30	No	BUY	1,957	8¢	$150	0x830430…
06-16 18:01:07	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	183	6¢	$11	0x92c148…
06-16 18:00:37	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 15 2026	Yes	SELL	300	3¢	$10	0x12f0d4…
06-16 17:59:26	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	583	6¢	$35	0x5be157…
06-16 17:59:11	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 30 20260607232556276 219	Yes	BUY	795	4¢	$35	0xfc6e2a…
06-16 17:32:14	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	1,000	15¢	$150	0x83c43c…
06-16 17:32:11	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,429	7¢	$100	0xbce8db…