Annual-Essay — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

68.4%

Resolved

199

Trades

484

lifetime

Volume

$842

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-24

last 09-22 23:48

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 12 days

Categories

Crypto

98% 62% +$9

Other

2% 22% -$7

Sports

0% 0% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 25 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	3	$34	30	16	+14	Up	-$6	09-22 13:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	5	$26	24	14	+10	Down	+$0	04-28 23:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	3	$23	1,000	1,000	+0	Up	+$21	09-22 13:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	2	$22	12	12	+0	Down	+$2	04-29 01:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	3	$16	16	4	+12	Up	+$2	04-29 00:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	6	$15	14	14	+0	Up	+$1	04-28 23:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	5	$13	11	11	+0	Up	+$1	04-29 03:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	4	$13	9	9	+0	Up	+$1	04-28 23:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	2	$12	14	14	+0	Up	+$2	09-22 13:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	8	$12	13	13	+0	Down	+$2	04-29 01:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	6	$12	8	8	+0	Up	$0	04-29 11:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	4	$11	8	8	+0	Up	-$1	04-29 00:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	6	$11	9	9	+0	Down	+$1	04-29 00:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	3	$11	20	10	+10	Up	+$1	04-28 23:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	4	$11	12	12	+0	Down	+$3	04-28 22:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	4	$11	8	8	+0	Down	+$1	04-28 22:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	2	$11	6	6	+0	Down	+$1	04-28 23:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	7	$10	10	8	+2	Down	+$0	04-29 10:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	1	$10	14	0	+14	Up	+$4	09-22 13:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	2	$10	14	0	+14	Down	-$1	04-29 00:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	6	$10	7	7	+0	Up	$0	04-29 00:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	7	$10	23	6	+17	Up	$0	04-29 10:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	4	$9	10	10	+0	Down	+$1	04-28 22:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	4	$8	8	8	+0	Down	+$0	04-29 00:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	3	$8	214	4	+210	Up	-$4	04-29 02:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	5	$8	19	16	+3	Down	$0	04-29 02:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	7	$8	9	7	+2	Down	+$2	04-28 16:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	3	$8	9	3	+5	Down	+$1	04-28 23:34
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	7	$8	8	6	+2	Down	$0	04-29 13:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	3	$8	15	7	+8	Up	$0	04-29 00:10

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-22 23:48:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xfc53e6…
09-22 14:43:21	Ethereum Up or Down - September 22, 10AM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xdff702…
09-22 14:38:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 10AM ET	Up	SELL	25	7¢	$2	0x2ca499…
09-22 14:36:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 10AM ET	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x0c7eb4…
09-22 14:28:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xbebf81…
09-22 14:18:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x7a4f64…
09-22 14:16:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	BUY	11	19¢	$2	0xff6cda…
09-22 14:12:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x82ce08…
09-22 14:11:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	SELL	40	8¢	$3	0xe68e6c…
09-22 14:11:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	40	5¢	$2	0xf2d276…
09-22 14:09:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	SELL	93	2¢	$2	0xb4ffe7…
09-22 14:09:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	SELL	2	2¢	$0	0x96e413…
09-22 14:09:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	SELL	2	2¢	$0	0x505b5c…
09-22 14:09:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	SELL	2	2¢	$0	0x320694…
09-22 14:09:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x64a69d…
09-22 13:54:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Up	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0x376554…
09-22 13:46:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	SELL	14	55¢	$7	0x568670…
09-22 13:45:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0xabd9ce…
09-22 13:43:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	SELL	16	91¢	$14	0x257ec8…
09-22 13:43:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0x370100…
09-22 13:41:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0x871c9b…
09-22 13:04:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	SELL	416	2¢	$9	0x709348…
09-22 13:04:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	SELL	584	2¢	$12	0x69e824…
09-22 13:04:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xad5b02…
09-22 12:56:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x824807…
08-07 17:27:40	cricodc gla ess 2026 08 07	Glamorgan	BUY	81	1¢	$1	0x5e0ed9…
08-07 17:22:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-07 17:20 UTC	Up	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x810b4f…
08-07 17:15:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-07 17:15 UTC	Down	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x8d7989…
06-04 11:38:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 11:35 UTC	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x2c373d…
06-04 11:29:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 11:25 UTC	Down	SELL	12	19¢	$2	0x71776a…
06-04 11:29:09	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-04 11:25 UTC	Down	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xf8e33e…
06-04 11:24:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Up	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x122b8e…
05-22 15:49:07	T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A: Cyprus vs Croatia	Croatia	SELL	3	93¢	$3	0x5bbb16…
05-22 15:35:37	T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A: Cyprus vs Croatia	Croatia	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0x4bf48d…
05-22 13:23:38	T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A: Malta vs Slovenia	Slovenia	SELL	10	3¢	$0	0x435a6d…
05-22 13:03:27	T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A: Malta vs Slovenia	Slovenia	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x788c6d…
05-22 12:53:29	T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A: Malta vs Slovenia	Slovenia	BUY	6	7¢	$0	0x76f9c5…
05-22 12:52:27	T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A: Malta vs Slovenia	Slovenia	BUY	9	7¢	$1	0xcfc768…
05-22 12:39:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	SELL	2	54¢	$1	0xfe468f…
05-22 12:35:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xfbdb8d…
05-20 18:27:50	Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians	Mumbai Indians	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0x734481…
05-20 18:01:56	Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians	Mumbai Indians	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x3ac64a…
05-20 17:56:05	Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians	Mumbai Indians	SELL	5	15¢	$1	0xe094ca…
05-20 17:49:01	Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians	Mumbai Indians	BUY	5	11¢	$1	0x5d15a1…
05-20 17:42:01	Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians	Mumbai Indians	SELL	5	24¢	$1	0x686eec…
05-20 17:12:14	Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians	Mumbai Indians	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x0c8c59…
05-18 04:54:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Up	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0xd168df…
05-18 04:54:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Up	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0xf44bdf…
05-18 04:41:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xeace19…
05-18 04:35:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Down	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x6a2e3b…
05-18 04:34:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Up	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x098b7d…
05-18 04:23:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x3b3ac3…
05-18 04:20:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Up	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xd6b097…
05-18 04:16:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Down	SELL	2	49¢	$1	0xd12f0c…
05-18 04:16:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x677d93…
05-18 04:15:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Up	SELL	2	52¢	$1	0xab29c7…
05-18 04:15:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Up	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xd9abea…
05-18 04:13:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Up	SELL	2	80¢	$2	0x2ced88…
05-18 04:12:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x1a9815…
05-18 04:08:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Up	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0x8ab124…
05-18 04:08:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Up	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x0a0670…
05-18 04:06:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Down	SELL	5	34¢	$2	0xce268d…
05-18 04:06:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x1f2dd6…
05-18 04:03:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Up	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0xb847af…
05-18 04:02:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Down	SELL	3	49¢	$1	0x617121…
05-18 04:00:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Down	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x7cddd2…
05-18 03:58:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Up	SELL	2	87¢	$1	0x63baf4…
05-18 03:57:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x64416f…
05-05 12:13:12	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on May 6?	Yes	BUY	12	16¢	$2	0x625897…
04-30 12:29:52	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on May 1?	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x122197…
04-30 12:29:08	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C or higher on May 1?	No	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xd71fca…
04-30 12:27:36	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on May 1?	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x1f7913…
04-29 14:28:36	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on May 1?	Yes	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0xcef7cd…
04-29 13:35:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Up	SELL	2	61¢	$1	0x73843e…
04-29 13:35:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Up	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x34e010…
04-29 13:32:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xaaacb3…
04-29 13:31:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	SELL	4	26¢	$1	0xd1bd8f…
04-29 13:31:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x7b6ccf…
04-29 13:30:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Down	SELL	2	78¢	$1	0xd25ded…
04-29 13:30:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Down	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x2813fb…
04-29 13:08:12	Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xf31d85…
04-29 13:07:50	Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	SELL	2	54¢	$1	0x71838c…
04-29 13:07:36	Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x782043…
04-29 13:06:46	Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	SELL	2	61¢	$1	0x4c62da…
04-29 13:06:28	Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xf22453…
04-29 13:06:06	Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	SELL	2	65¢	$1	0x7b2106…
04-29 13:05:44	Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x0a6c69…
04-29 13:04:38	Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Up	SELL	28	7¢	$2	0xcf50c3…
04-29 13:04:30	Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Up	BUY	28	4¢	$1	0x891c3b…
04-29 13:02:22	Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	SELL	4	39¢	$2	0x912451…
04-29 13:02:16	Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xf6eae7…
04-29 12:59:50	Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x545828…
04-29 12:55:48	Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	SELL	1	73¢	$1	0x5a57a3…
04-29 12:55:28	Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x16dc5f…
04-29 12:22:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xc2f8ab…
04-29 12:22:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	BUY	4	4¢	$0	0x799b89…
04-29 12:22:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	BUY	11	4¢	$0	0x0c7ae1…
04-29 12:21:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	SELL	10	15¢	$2	0x7ad0cb…
04-29 12:20:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	BUY	10	8¢	$1	0x16e6be…
04-29 12:18:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	SELL	5	28¢	$1	0x854fc9…