Innocent-Expectation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$3

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$1.09K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$57

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-29

last 10-19 22:57

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 17 days

Categories

Other

63% 100% +$2

Politics

19% 100% +$0

Crypto

14% 100% +$0

Tech

4% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (17) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the us next strike iran on february 20 2026 et	1	$209	209	+209	No	+$0	02-21 06:38
over 20m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325650	1	$132	132	+132	Yes	+$0	07-14 03:11
Zama FDV above $600M one day after launch?	1	$98	98	+98	No	+$0	02-03 10:03
Xi Jinping out by June 30?	1	$81	81	+81	No	+$0	06-14 16:17
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 4 - 10?	2	$77	77	+77	No	+$0	05-06 16:29
elon musk of tweets april 9 april 11 115 139	1	$67	67	+67	No	+$0	04-11 05:24
elon musk of tweets march 6 march 13 580plus	1	$59	59	+59	No	+$0	03-11 10:08
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,200 in June?	1	$57	58	+58	No	+$1	06-02 09:04
will tsla reach 608 in january	1	$55	55	+55	No	+$0	01-29 06:37
bitcoin above 64k on march 11	1	$52	52	+52	Yes	+$0	03-11 10:09
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	2	$41	41	+41	No	+$0	10-19 22:57
Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026?	1	$41	41	+41	No	+$0	09-01 07:22
will wti reach 100 by august 3 2026	1	$38	38	+38	No	+$0	08-07 06:49
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 3 - August 9?	1	$36	36	+36	No	+$0	08-07 06:50
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $165 Week of May 4 2026?	1	$36	36	+36	No	+$0	05-06 02:27
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $102.50 Week of June 1 2026?	1	$10	10	+10	No	+$0	06-02 09:03
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $70 Week of May 18 2026?	1	$1	1	+1	No	+$0	05-22 08:38

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-19 22:57:48	Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	36	100¢	$36	0x97278c…
10-19 02:00:33	Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x665997…
09-01 07:22:36	Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026?	No	BUY	41	100¢	$41	0x385476…
08-07 06:50:45	Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 3 - August 9?	No	BUY	36	100¢	$36	0xeddd2c…
08-07 06:49:22	will wti reach 100 by august 3 2026	No	BUY	38	100¢	$38	0x0f9359…
07-14 03:11:23	over 20m committed to the credible public sale 20260708134325650	Yes	BUY	132	100¢	$132	0x38ab6f…
06-14 16:17:54	Xi Jinping out by June 30?	No	BUY	81	100¢	$81	0xbe3016…
06-02 09:04:32	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,200 in June?	No	BUY	58	99¢	$57	0x21ca86…
06-02 09:03:35	Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $102.50 Week of June 1 2026?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x7abe3e…
05-22 08:38:37	Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $70 Week of May 18 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x940961…
05-06 16:29:59	Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 4 - 10?	No	BUY	72	100¢	$72	0x208eb8…
05-06 02:31:40	Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 4 - 10?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xcb2950…
05-06 02:27:08	Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $165 Week of May 4 2026?	No	BUY	36	99¢	$36	0x588fd1…
04-11 05:24:51	elon musk of tweets april 9 april 11 115 139	No	BUY	67	100¢	$67	0xba950c…
03-11 10:09:43	bitcoin above 64k on march 11	Yes	BUY	52	100¢	$52	0xccc4df…
03-11 10:08:45	elon musk of tweets march 6 march 13 580plus	No	BUY	59	100¢	$59	0x243ef5…
02-21 06:38:10	will the us next strike iran on february 20 2026 et	No	BUY	209	100¢	$209	0xbc994e…
02-03 10:03:10	Zama FDV above $600M one day after launch?	No	BUY	98	100¢	$98	0x6d4d21…
01-29 06:37:10	will tsla reach 608 in january	No	BUY	55	100¢	$55	0x2b9fa4…