Which-Appendix — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$120

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

95.9%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$1.81K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$26

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-14

last 08-02 17:45

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 15 days

Categories

Other

58% 100% +$74

Politics

35% 67% +$52

Sports

7% 80% -$6

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-08-02).

Open positions Resolved markets (22) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	12	$325	193	193	+0	No	+$53	04-24 15:10
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	3	$218	113	113	+0	No	+$5	05-11 02:28
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in May?	2	$197	107	107	+0	Yes	+$4	05-22 23:27
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	3	$168	87	87	+0	No	+$6	04-30 17:10
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	4	$163	90	90	+0	No	+$3	05-22 23:27
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?	2	$120	127	0	+127	No	+$7	04-24 15:14
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	3	$71	37	37	+0	No	+$2	05-29 02:53
will trump say air force during no tax on tips roundtable	2	$71	51	50	+1	No	+$28	04-17 00:46
trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 18 2026	2	$62	33	33	+0	No	+$2	04-15 14:39
Will Russia capture Bilytske by April 30, 2026?	4	$57	61	0	+61	No	+$4	04-17 01:00
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	2	$51	86	0	+86	Yes	+$34	05-29 02:56
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after April 2026 meeting?	2	$40	21	21	+0	Yes	+$0	04-16 23:35
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	3	$36	24	24	+0	open	—	08-02 17:45
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	4	$34	91	0	+91	Yes	-$34	04-16 16:06
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	2	$33	35	0	+35	No	+$2	05-01 12:42
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	2	$33	51	51	+0	No	+$1	05-22 23:27
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	3	$25	48	48	+0	Yes	+$1	05-22 23:27
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	2	$24	65	0	+65	No	+$41	04-15 16:52
Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	2	$23	12	12	+0	No	+$0	04-24 17:33
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	2	$21	11	11	+0	No	+$1	05-19 04:23
will trump say womens sports during no tax on tips roundtable	2	$20	29	0	+29	Yes	-$20	04-16 23:44
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	1	$10	100	0	+100	No	-$10	05-01 12:45
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026	5	$9	76	0	+76	Yes	-$9	04-16 16:38

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-02 17:45:53	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	SELL	24	89¢	$21	0x3eae8e…
05-29 02:56:44	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	63	58¢	$36	0x2fa926…
05-29 02:53:46	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	37	99¢	$36	0x0d9d01…
05-22 23:27:23	Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	Yes	SELL	51	32¢	$17	0x67ea25…
05-22 23:27:18	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	SELL	90	93¢	$83	0x15a9c2…
05-22 23:27:14	Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in May?	No	SELL	107	94¢	$100	0xed0701…
05-22 23:27:13	Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	Yes	SELL	48	28¢	$13	0xf68e96…
05-19 04:23:27	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	11	96¢	$11	0x911756…
05-19 04:23:01	Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0xcd55af…
05-16 03:35:39	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	26	95¢	$24	0x9d14b8…
05-16 03:33:07	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	60¢	$10	0x7c38c1…
05-11 02:31:17	Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in May?	No	BUY	107	90¢	$96	0xea6d4d…
05-11 02:29:43	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	23	65¢	$15	0x4ad56a…
05-11 02:28:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	SELL	113	99¢	$112	0xcc751d…
05-02 13:13:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	65	95¢	$62	0x6b41cf…
05-02 13:12:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	47	95¢	$45	0x390ed0…
05-01 12:45:44	Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	Yes	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0x83691f…
05-01 12:45:42	Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0xa97a55…
05-01 12:45:16	Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	Yes	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0x87ca5c…
05-01 12:45:08	Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	Yes	BUY	51	31¢	$16	0x0932e7…
05-01 12:43:12	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	34	89¢	$30	0xc14eb2…
05-01 12:42:52	Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0x1c4915…
05-01 12:37:38	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	28	89¢	$25	0x53e3f9…
05-01 03:06:30	Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x8c39eb…
05-01 03:05:56	Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	BUY	14	96¢	$13	0x923b74…
05-01 03:05:44	Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	No	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0x127a73…
05-01 03:05:18	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	28	90¢	$25	0x395011…
04-30 17:10:56	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	87	100¢	$87	0x9359e8…
04-24 17:33:34	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	13	90¢	$12	0xfabab3…
04-24 17:33:14	Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	12	98¢	$12	0x9f25e5…
04-24 15:19:26	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	74	94¢	$69	0x697835…
04-24 15:14:34	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?	No	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0x01f23e…
04-24 15:10:42	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by April 30?	No	BUY	106	95¢	$100	0xa5a015…
04-24 15:10:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	193	98¢	$189	0x9c3b21…
04-17 16:29:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	32	44¢	$14	0x9bbb6f…
04-17 01:00:18	Will Russia capture Bilytske by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	42	94¢	$39	0x11c2cc…
04-17 00:59:22	Will Russia capture Bilytske by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x00e374…
04-17 00:50:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0xc6ef80…
04-17 00:46:30	will trump say air force during no tax on tips roundtable	No	SELL	50	99¢	$49	0xd59189…
04-17 00:26:32	will trump say air force during no tax on tips roundtable	No	BUY	51	44¢	$22	0x3390e1…
04-16 23:44:34	will trump say womens sports during no tax on tips roundtable	No	BUY	4	67¢	$3	0x062dd0…
04-16 23:36:08	will trump say womens sports during no tax on tips roundtable	No	BUY	25	70¢	$18	0x26ca30…
04-16 23:35:36	No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	21	96¢	$20	0xe7b719…
04-16 20:42:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	18	74¢	$14	0xdb0d39…
04-16 20:41:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0xc011e7…
04-16 20:40:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	20	74¢	$15	0xecbe08…
04-16 18:33:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	46	75¢	$35	0xdca5b4…
04-16 16:38:56	israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026	No	BUY	12	10¢	$1	0xc1a975…
04-16 16:21:56	israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026	No	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x7f48aa…
04-16 16:14:38	israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026	No	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xddc82e…
04-16 16:14:18	israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026	No	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x745463…
04-16 16:06:38	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	16	6¢	$1	0x9d9b35…
04-16 16:06:08	Will Russia capture Bilytske by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	9	93¢	$8	0x93f39a…
04-16 16:04:28	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	29	7¢	$2	0x8ecd55…
04-16 16:04:06	israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026	No	BUY	36	14¢	$5	0x78c0a1…
04-16 16:03:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0x16aad7…
04-15 16:52:04	israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	No	BUY	33	41¢	$13	0x7e9e11…
04-15 15:53:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	11	76¢	$8	0x64ea70…
04-15 14:42:48	israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	No	BUY	32	33¢	$10	0xe5817a…
04-15 14:39:32	trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 18 2026	No	SELL	33	96¢	$32	0x285927…
04-14 21:15:12	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	21	63¢	$13	0xdb8c42…
04-14 17:47:10	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	25	72¢	$18	0x6e0cad…
04-14 17:42:06	Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	12	95¢	$11	0x86727b…
04-14 17:40:02	Will Russia capture Bilytske by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x62ca64…
04-14 17:36:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0x8ec041…
04-14 17:34:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	12	78¢	$9	0x6089e7…
04-14 17:33:16	trump announces us x iran ceasefire end by april 18 2026	No	BUY	33	90¢	$30	0x9ef4e7…
04-14 17:29:58	No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0x1c82b3…
04-14 17:26:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	22	79¢	$17	0x390318…