Hot-Diffuse — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

+$3

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

50.0%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

83 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$117

$117 lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$10

9 positions

First seen

2026-03-27

last 06-06 19:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

78% 100% +$4

Sports

14% — —

Politics

8% 0% $-1

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

17 active days in 12wk • peak 14 trades/day

Open positions (9) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	+3	$2	62¢	$2	$-0	06-06 19:07
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	+1	$1	71¢	$1	+$0	06-06 19:07
Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	+1	$1	86¢	$1	$-0	06-06 19:06
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	+1	$1	80¢	$1	$-0	06-06 19:08
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	+1	$1	78¢	$1	$-0	06-06 19:06
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	+1	$1	72¢	$1	$-0	06-06 19:06
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	+5	$1	20¢	$1	$-0	06-06 19:09
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	+2	$1	61¢	$1	$-0	06-06 19:08
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	+6	$1	15¢	$1	$-0	06-06 19:09

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April?	3	$7	58	36	+23	open	—	04-29 23:04
Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	3	$6	9	8	+2	open	—	05-01 00:02
ufc isr joe8 2026 03 28	1	$5	9	0	+9	open	—	03-27 15:56
will elon musks net worth be less than 640b on march 31	1	$5	7	0	+7	open	—	03-27 13:11
Will Arsenal win a trophy this season?	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	03-27 13:10
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	2	$5	4	3	+0	open	—	04-07 16:51
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	2	$5	11	10	+0	open	—	04-07 16:51
Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	3	$5	7	4	+3	open	—	04-21 00:34
Trump out as President by April 30?	3	$3	47	1	+46	open	—	04-28 09:08
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	2	$3	5	5	+0	open	—	04-21 00:39
Will Ryan Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	2	$3	7	7	+0	open	—	04-29 00:13
Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	2	$2	8	8	+0	open	—	04-21 00:40
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28?	1	$2	6	0	+6	open	—	04-28 09:18
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?	2	$2	4	4	+0	open	—	04-07 16:51
lal rea gir 2026 04 10 draw	2	$2	8	8	+0	open	—	04-08 01:30
will starmer say oil or gas during the next prime ministers questions event	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	04-08 13:56
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?	2	$2	2	2	+0	open	—	04-07 16:54
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$2	3	0	+3	open	—	06-06 19:07
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country?	1	$2	109	0	+109	open	—	03-27 13:20
fif nld nor 2026 03 27 nor	1	$2	9	0	+9	open	—	03-27 15:43
will fewer than 10 ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 23 29	1	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	03-27 13:13
lal rea gir 2026 04 10 gir	2	$2	11	11	+0	open	—	04-08 01:27
Pep Guardiola out as Manchester City manager by the end of 2026?	2	$2	2	2	+0	open	—	04-17 01:57
epl che mac 2026 04 12 che	1	$1	6	0	+6	open	—	04-12 04:50
ucl spo1 ars 2026 04 07 ars	1	$1	2	0	+2	open	—	03-30 14:15
Will Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw?	1	$1	5	0	+5	Yes	+$4	04-26 13:01
lal mad bar 2026 04 04 mad	1	$1	3	0	+3	open	—	03-30 14:14
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$1	5	0	+5	open	—	06-06 19:09
ucl bay1 rma1 2026 04 15 draw	1	$1	5	0	+5	open	—	04-12 04:47
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	1	$1	24	0	+24	open	—	03-27 13:20

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-06 19:09:22	Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x4e642f…
06-06 19:09:03	Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x7056f3…
06-06 19:08:48	Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x4e7271…
06-06 19:08:13	Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xbb007d…
06-06 19:07:27	Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x1e500c…
06-06 19:07:03	Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xa93847…
06-06 19:06:45	Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xed3333…
06-06 19:06:19	Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x4c3e76…
06-06 19:06:01	Will Morocco advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0xba0fdd…
05-12 00:23:21	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xf9fad2…
05-05 00:08:20	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x5fde3b…
05-01 00:02:08	Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xa9bd1d…
05-01 00:01:28	Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x779e1f…
04-29 23:04:06	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April?	Yes	BUY	23	13¢	$3	0x6f78c8…
04-29 21:06:12	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April?	Yes	SELL	36	9¢	$3	0x67fae8…
04-29 00:13:12	Will Ryan Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	SELL	7	15¢	$1	0x40fecb…
04-28 23:58:28	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April?	Yes	BUY	36	3¢	$1	0x825f21…
04-28 09:18:34	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28?	Yes	BUY	6	40¢	$2	0xccf417…
04-28 09:08:48	Trump out as President by April 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x426bab…
04-26 13:01:52	Will Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xe5e3e2…
04-26 13:01:44	Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x0e7f0d…
04-21 00:51:48	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25?	Yes	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x447623…
04-21 00:50:46	Will Manchester United FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x446dfb…
04-21 00:50:26	Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-04-25?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x2533e5…
04-21 00:48:46	Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xcfe7f2…
04-21 00:48:18	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xd555d3…
04-21 00:40:46	Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	SELL	8	38¢	$3	0x221e47…
04-21 00:40:18	Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	SELL	8	16¢	$1	0xc76563…
04-21 00:39:20	Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	SELL	5	28¢	$1	0x572e98…
04-21 00:34:12	Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0xbf62a1…
04-21 00:30:14	Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	SELL	4	41¢	$2	0x9b8d1c…
04-17 01:57:32	epl mac ars 2026 04 19 ars	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x3aff93…
04-17 01:57:06	Pep Guardiola out as Manchester City manager by the end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	52¢	$1	0xb9c215…
04-12 04:50:09	epl che mac 2026 04 12 che	Yes	BUY	6	27¢	$1	0x72f106…
04-12 04:47:53	ucl bay1 rma1 2026 04 15 draw	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xb09c9c…
04-12 04:47:41	ucl atm1 fcb1 2026 04 14 draw	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x63fe6a…
04-09 09:50:17	Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x013edb…
04-08 19:44:35	will jon rahm win the 2026 masters tournament	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x07963f…
04-08 13:56:51	will starmer say oil or gas during the next prime ministers questions event	Yes	SELL	1	83¢	$1	0x77f102…
04-08 13:54:57	Will Ryan Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	7	21¢	$1	0xf80ee5…
04-08 13:51:35	Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0x025798…
04-08 01:30:41	lal rea gir 2026 04 10 draw	Yes	SELL	8	14¢	$1	0xb76695…
04-08 01:27:51	lal rea gir 2026 04 10 gir	Yes	SELL	11	9¢	$1	0xc3c441…
04-08 00:35:29	North Korea missile test/launch by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x44f861…
04-08 00:35:13	russia military action against kyiv municipality by april 10 578	Yes	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x080042…
04-07 17:04:19	Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	No	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xb0ba0e…
04-07 17:04:05	Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xab7250…
04-07 16:58:03	trump announces hormuz deadline extension today	No	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xf68a1a…
04-07 16:54:15	Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?	Yes	SELL	2	46¢	$1	0x92ba3f…
04-07 16:51:57	Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?	Yes	SELL	4	29¢	$1	0x9a0080…
04-07 16:51:27	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	Yes	SELL	10	25¢	$3	0xa9ca61…
04-07 16:51:17	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	Yes	SELL	3	77¢	$3	0x825ed5…
04-06 12:16:09	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xed248d…
04-02 11:57:25	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	Yes	BUY	11	19¢	$2	0xdc181f…
04-02 11:57:01	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	Yes	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0xe90b64…
04-02 10:48:47	Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xd6ad64…
04-02 10:48:37	Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX’s initial public offering?	Yes	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xa92a4f…
03-30 14:17:31	epl bre eve 2026 04 11 draw	Yes	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xee36e3…
03-30 14:16:57	lal rea gir 2026 04 10 gir	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xe2f988…
03-30 14:16:51	lal rea gir 2026 04 10 draw	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x87aacd…
03-30 14:16:37	ucl psg1 liv1 2026 04 08 psg1	Yes	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xcbe9a9…
03-30 14:16:19	ucl fcb1 atm1 2026 04 08 draw	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x456556…
03-30 14:15:59	ucl spo1 ars 2026 04 07 ars	Yes	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xd9de2e…
03-30 14:14:49	lal mad bar 2026 04 04 mad	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x06ccce…
03-30 14:13:53	lal mal rea 2026 04 04 draw	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xcddde0…
03-30 02:13:36	epl wes wol 2026 04 10 wol	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x18884f…
03-30 02:13:28	epl ars bou 2026 04 11 ars	Yes	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x2f2eb1…
03-30 02:05:08	will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xbaf876…
03-30 02:04:56	will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	Yes	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xb54a1a…
03-27 16:10:17	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x329383…
03-27 15:56:47	ufc isr joe8 2026 03 28	Israel Adesanya	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x85a4b0…
03-27 15:52:19	trump approval up or down this week 678	Down	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x692d40…
03-27 15:43:25	fif nld nor 2026 03 27 nor	Yes	BUY	9	22¢	$2	0xe0b277…
03-27 13:20:49	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country?	Yes	BUY	109	2¢	$2	0xf89b4a…
03-27 13:20:41	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	BUY	24	4¢	$1	0x27759b…
03-27 13:19:31	Pep Guardiola out as Manchester City manager by the end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x4620b7…
03-27 13:17:03	Trump out as President by April 30?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x191d21…
03-27 13:16:43	Trump out as President by April 30?	Yes	BUY	46	2¢	$1	0x358d90…
03-27 13:16:05	will starmer say oil or gas during the next prime ministers questions event	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x68edaf…
03-27 13:15:49	will starmer say urgent during the next prime ministers questions event	Yes	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x2d0875…
03-27 13:13:33	will fewer than 10 ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 23 29	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xf98b0a…
03-27 13:11:45	will elon musks net worth be less than 640b on march 31	No	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x380cea…
03-27 13:10:37	Will Arsenal win a trophy this season?	Yes	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x99d0c0…