Well-Informed-Macro — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$38

Unrealized P&L

-$2

Hit rate

89.2%

Resolved

Trades

2,565

lifetime

Volume

$23.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$20

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-05

last 06-25 14:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 7 days

Categories

Crypto

94% 71% +$42

Other

6% 0% $-4

Politics

0% — —

Tech

0% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

45 active days in 12wk • peak 112 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+18	$10	68¢	$12	+$2	06-25 14:31
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+30	$11	25¢	$8	$-4	06-14 07:28

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
btc updown 5m 1772704800	5	$870	452	444	+8	open	—	03-05 10:05
btc updown 5m 1772700900	3	$775	400	391	+9	open	—	03-05 09:00
btc updown 5m 1772699700	3	$501	333	261	+72	open	—	03-05 08:40
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Punjab Kings	3	$470	562	250	+312	open	—	05-03 17:44
btc updown 5m 1772700300	2	$438	291	287	+5	open	—	03-05 08:49
btc updown 5m 1772698500	2	$417	225	224	+1	open	—	03-05 08:18
btc updown 5m 1773252300	3	$274	139	139	+0	open	—	03-11 18:09
btc updown 5m 1772691000	3	$253	130	130	+0	open	—	03-05 06:15
btc updown 5m 1776186300	1	$253	255	0	+255	open	—	04-14 17:09
btc updown 5m 1772703300	10	$246	172	170	+2	open	—	03-05 09:39
btc updown 5m 1772704200	5	$242	142	134	+8	open	—	03-05 09:55
btc updown 5m 1773257100	3	$239	130	120	+9	open	—	03-11 19:30
btc updown 5m 1772379600	4	$237	134	120	+14	open	—	03-01 15:45
btc updown 5m 1775793900	5	$234	244	3	+241	open	—	04-10 04:09
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Punjab Kings	4	$230	200	200	+0	open	—	04-25 12:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	19	$230	500	0	+500	open	—	04-26 10:47
btc updown 5m 1771925700	6	$228	125	123	+2	open	—	02-24 09:40
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	2	$223	125	125	+0	open	—	05-02 04:44
btc updown 5m 1771584600	3	$222	115	113	+2	open	—	02-20 10:55
btc updown 15m 1770363000	5	$220	126	125	+1	open	—	02-06 07:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	20	$215	168	168	+0	Down	+$15	05-12 17:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	12	$212	130	128	+2	open	—	04-25 07:54
btc updown 15m 1771325100	3	$211	109	109	+0	open	—	02-17 11:00
btc updown 5m 1776185400	7	$205	111	108	+3	open	—	04-14 16:52
btc updown 5m 1775639400	2	$200	205	0	+205	open	—	04-08 09:15
btc updown 5m 1775639100	2	$199	202	0	+202	open	—	04-08 09:09
btc updown 5m 1771147200	3	$197	99	99	+0	open	—	02-15 09:25
btc updown 5m 1771146300	2	$194	98	98	+0	open	—	02-15 09:10
btc updown 5m 1771218600	3	$187	102	95	+7	open	—	02-16 05:15
btc updown 5m 1771220400	2	$186	104	104	+0	open	—	02-16 05:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-25 14:31:16	Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0x8bb5a3…
06-25 04:06:13	bitcoin above 64k on june 28 2026	Yes	BUY	75	8¢	$6	0x1dc148…
06-20 16:07:53	crint pak3 bgd3 2026 06 20	Pakistan	BUY	103	80¢	$82	0x095e5d…
06-20 15:59:01	crint pak3 bgd3 2026 06 20	Pakistan	BUY	22	80¢	$18	0x416a86…
06-19 09:58:01	crint bgd2 aus3 2026 06 19	Australia	BUY	64	78¢	$50	0xe478a7…
06-18 17:19:35	crint wst4 sco5 2026 06 18	West Indies	BUY	29	69¢	$20	0x374dd9…
06-18 16:36:08	btc updown 5m 1781800500	Up	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xbafb36…
06-16 16:43:47	crint nzl6 lka3 2026 06 16	Sri Lanka	SELL	34	99¢	$34	0xa88d29…
06-16 15:32:52	crint nzl6 lka3 2026 06 16	Sri Lanka	BUY	34	29¢	$10	0x7860b0…
06-16 13:50:49	btc updown 5m 1781617800	Up	BUY	26	19¢	$5	0x6dd655…
06-16 13:50:17	btc updown 5m 1781617800	Up	BUY	54	37¢	$20	0xb3785f…
06-16 13:46:43	btc updown 5m 1781617500	Down	BUY	36	56¢	$20	0x38e692…
06-16 13:40:56	btc updown 5m 1781617200	Down	BUY	15	36¢	$5	0x2fa102…
06-16 13:40:04	btc updown 5m 1781616900	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xb37d59…
06-16 13:36:22	btc updown 5m 1781616900	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x00afdc…
06-16 13:35:59	btc updown 5m 1781616900	Up	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x19d44d…
06-16 13:34:34	btc updown 5m 1781616600	Down	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x8e67a3…
06-15 03:27:30	btc updown 5m 1781493900	Up	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xb413cd…
06-15 03:06:57	btc updown 5m 1781492700	Up	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x84b8e2…
06-14 07:28:13	Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	37¢	$11	0xa8683f…
06-13 17:02:45	btc updown 5m 1781370000	Down	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0xfcf838…
06-13 16:56:15	btc updown 5m 1781369700	Up	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xa38c67…
06-10 18:33:52	btc updown 5m 1781116200	Down	SELL	13	94¢	$12	0xa19409…
06-10 18:32:39	btc updown 5m 1781116200	Up	SELL	3	11¢	$0	0xc46381…
06-10 18:32:25	btc updown 5m 1781116200	Down	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0x8229b2…
06-10 18:30:42	btc updown 5m 1781116200	Up	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xc0aa38…
06-10 18:29:58	btc updown 5m 1781115900	Up	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xeba66b…
06-10 18:29:06	btc updown 5m 1781115900	Down	SELL	24	98¢	$24	0xad917b…
06-10 18:26:45	btc updown 5m 1781115900	Down	BUY	24	83¢	$20	0xb62dd8…
06-10 18:24:49	btc updown 5m 1781115600	Down	SELL	12	5¢	$1	0x9ce2ff…
06-10 18:24:31	btc updown 5m 1781115600	Up	BUY	39	82¢	$32	0xf150f6…
06-10 18:22:49	btc updown 5m 1781115600	Up	SELL	1	25¢	$0	0x6e23f0…
06-10 18:22:24	btc updown 5m 1781115600	Down	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0xa5af65…
06-10 18:21:28	btc updown 5m 1781115600	Up	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x87887d…
06-08 18:55:39	btc updown 5m 1780944900	Down	BUY	17	51¢	$9	0xd7e23a…
06-08 18:50:52	btc updown 5m 1780944600	Down	BUY	14	72¢	$10	0x83347d…
06-08 18:47:36	btc updown 5m 1780944300	Down	SELL	2	94¢	$2	0x9fe40b…
06-08 18:45:19	btc updown 5m 1780944300	Down	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x5aec81…
06-08 18:33:25	btc updown 5m 1780943400	Down	BUY	17	88¢	$15	0xe5bdc1…
06-08 18:32:25	btc updown 5m 1780943400	Up	SELL	30	5¢	$1	0xa5599d…
06-08 18:31:07	btc updown 5m 1780943400	Up	BUY	24	63¢	$15	0x711534…
06-08 18:31:07	btc updown 5m 1780943400	Up	BUY	6	63¢	$4	0x3fa5f5…
06-08 18:24:46	btc updown 5m 1780942800	Up	BUY	22	46¢	$10	0x3cfa30…
06-08 18:21:42	btc updown 5m 1780942800	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x65a56f…
06-08 18:19:34	btc updown 5m 1780942500	Down	BUY	22	92¢	$20	0x258c95…
06-08 18:16:27	btc updown 5m 1780942500	Down	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x5ebe14…
06-07 03:59:00	btc updown 5m 1780804500	Up	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0xa6f2fb…
06-07 03:56:37	btc updown 5m 1780804500	Up	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0x16ee0b…
06-07 03:33:54	btc updown 5m 1780803000	Down	BUY	8	78¢	$6	0xc1f51d…
06-07 03:23:52	btc updown 5m 1780802400	Down	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x84a720…
06-07 03:22:06	btc updown 5m 1780802400	Down	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x8844ff…
06-07 03:21:25	btc updown 5m 1780802400	Down	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0xe08130…
06-07 03:18:55	btc updown 5m 1780802100	Up	SELL	40	98¢	$39	0xf791ed…
06-07 03:17:51	btc updown 5m 1780802100	Up	BUY	40	63¢	$25	0x4aabf5…
06-07 03:15:06	btc updown 5m 1780801800	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x22cb90…
06-07 03:12:43	btc updown 5m 1780801800	Down	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0x1ac008…
06-07 03:10:49	btc updown 5m 1780801800	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x4f5101…
06-04 17:42:30	btc updown 5m 1780594800	Up	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x689e6a…
06-04 17:34:24	btc updown 5m 1780594200	Down	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xea3549…
06-04 17:32:09	btc updown 5m 1780594200	Down	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x1c109e…
06-03 13:21:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Down	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0xc645de…
06-03 00:06:29	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	1¢	$2	0x41e769…
06-02 09:54:58	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	180	1¢	$1	0x10b680…
06-01 11:24:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Down	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0x840603…
06-01 11:23:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Down	BUY	7	89¢	$6	0x340926…
06-01 11:21:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Down	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x74a6a9…
06-01 11:15:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Up	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xde6ac7…
05-28 08:48:00	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	25	43¢	$11	0x736cea…
05-28 08:43:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0xee0d89…
05-28 08:28:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Down	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xa34d94…
05-28 08:26:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x128146…
05-27 04:43:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	42	95¢	$40	0xc26a64…
05-27 04:39:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Down	SELL	3	19¢	$0	0xf43d37…
05-27 04:37:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Up	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0xcfd17a…
05-27 04:36:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Down	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xcd1be3…
05-27 04:23:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Down	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x5e7e08…
05-26 04:17:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Down	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xee7ddc…
05-26 04:13:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0xb5f843…
05-26 04:06:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Up	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x0c708c…
05-26 04:04:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Down	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x53a15b…
05-24 11:29:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	18	90¢	$16	0xf6dec7…
05-24 11:26:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xbde6ab…
05-24 09:49:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xedaf5b…
05-23 03:49:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0xac9dbe…
05-23 03:43:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x74aadd…
05-23 03:43:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0x5903cb…
05-23 03:36:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Down	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xc092dd…
05-23 03:34:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Down	BUY	6	31¢	$2	0xc197d7…
05-23 03:31:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Down	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0xcb9a62…
05-23 03:29:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x821597…
05-23 03:23:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Down	SELL	2	55¢	$1	0x0e0a0e…
05-23 03:22:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Up	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0xcefcde…
05-23 03:20:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x8e96c5…
05-23 03:19:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Up	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xa75dc1…
05-21 03:53:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Up	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0xed97bf…
05-20 08:09:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Down	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x1f7326…
05-19 16:42:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Up	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x02fe94…
05-19 06:14:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0x32714d…
05-19 06:09:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	Down	BUY	13	83¢	$11	0x58f896…
05-19 04:12:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Up	BUY	27	91¢	$25	0xe8f2db…