Austere-Crewmen — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$171

Unrealized P&L

-$38

Hit rate

46.0%

Resolved

Trades

2,570

lifetime

Volume

$157.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$61

Open exposure

$214

1 position

First seen

2026-01-30

last 07-19 00:21

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Politics

51% 60% +$16

Other

36% 67% +$134

Tech

9% — —

Sports

2% 100% +$21

Crypto

1% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

48 active days in 12wk • peak 36 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes		+400	$252	54¢	$214	$-38	07-08 02:38

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	47	$7.0K	3,683	3,690	-7	open	—	03-27 00:53
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	24	$5.8K	3,070	3,070	+0	open	—	04-10 13:34
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	27	$5.5K	2,974	2,974	+0	open	—	03-10 15:18
netanyahu out by march 31 854	21	$4.1K	2,138	2,031	+107	open	—	03-20 14:53
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	28	$3.4K	3,363	2,143	+1,220	open	—	05-31 13:46
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	8	$3.1K	1,750	1,750	+0	open	—	04-23 12:25
will the 7 day moving average of strait of hormuz transits be less than 4 on april 12 2026	11	$2.8K	2,345	632	+1,713	open	—	04-14 11:52
will the government shutdown last 1 day or more	33	$2.7K	1,813	1,813	-0	open	—	02-14 04:59
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	17	$2.6K	2,747	2,030	+717	open	—	05-01 02:39
another us government shutdown by february 14	44	$2.5K	2,767	2,767	+0	open	—	02-14 04:55
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 21st	7	$2.4K	1,575	1,175	+400	open	—	04-22 03:00
will apple be the second largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	21	$2.4K	1,328	1,328	+0	open	—	03-31 12:47
will fewer than 10 ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 10 16	34	$2.4K	1,469	1,205	+264	open	—	03-17 18:29
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	8	$2.4K	1,386	1,111	+275	open	—	03-01 02:28
will iran strike israel on march 6	13	$2.3K	1,121	1,186	-65	open	—	03-11 12:41
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	8	$2.0K	1,015	1,285	-270	open	—	03-01 01:35
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	9	$1.9K	1,026	1,026	+0	open	—	07-08 02:34
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 30 894	13	$1.9K	1,139	1,139	+0	open	—	05-01 02:23
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	15	$1.9K	1,485	1,485	+0	open	—	05-01 02:34
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	8	$1.9K	1,127	1,127	+0	open	—	04-22 02:54
will 20 24 ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 23 29	12	$1.8K	1,035	993	+42	open	—	03-31 13:09
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	9	$1.8K	952	952	+0	open	—	04-10 14:05
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?	11	$1.8K	2,018	1,110	+908	open	—	05-01 21:48
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on february 28 846	24	$1.7K	1,262	869	+393	open	—	02-23 17:20
will iran strike israel on march 10	13	$1.6K	868	868	+0	open	—	03-14 02:44
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	8	$1.6K	848	848	+0	Yes	$-8	04-21 13:07
us x iran ceasefire by march 2	9	$1.4K	714	714	+0	open	—	03-02 23:41
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	19	$1.3K	3,670	2,122	+1,548	open	—	02-28 07:03
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	4	$1.3K	3,035	0	+3,035	open	—	06-14 22:35
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	15	$1.3K	1,135	459	+676	open	—	04-14 23:34

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-19 00:21:13	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	42	76¢	$32	0x7d3067…
07-16 22:29:02	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	No	BUY	125	57¢	$71	0x67c885…
07-16 22:27:17	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	No	BUY	120	58¢	$70	0x85c86d…
07-12 20:05:56	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	No	BUY	16	75¢	$12	0x5cb194…
07-12 19:57:04	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	No	BUY	80	75¢	$60	0x140594…
07-12 19:37:44	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	No	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x1b1787…
07-12 19:13:40	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	No	BUY	6	75¢	$4	0xe09b08…
07-12 18:30:37	israel closes its airspace by august 31	No	BUY	150	72¢	$107	0xcd64c7…
07-08 02:38:47	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	400	63¢	$252	0xde7ffd…
07-08 02:34:43	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	1,006	100¢	$1,001	0xc5b515…
07-07 14:50:53	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	21	99¢	$20	0x8d9094…
07-02 16:32:02	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	68	92¢	$63	0x4bdbc6…
07-02 16:26:25	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	106	91¢	$97	0x25de7c…
07-02 16:05:08	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	505	91¢	$460	0xb91534…
07-02 11:16:53	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	191	91¢	$174	0x3eac78…
07-02 11:14:34	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	73	93¢	$68	0xbe1556…
07-02 11:14:19	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	No	SELL	108	99¢	$107	0xf0b6a2…
06-30 14:23:34	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	27	85¢	$23	0x5b3aa9…
06-30 12:53:32	iran charges hormuz fees by july 15 20260625175039061	No	BUY	141	92¢	$130	0x928971…
06-28 12:09:23	israel closes its airspace by july 31	No	BUY	143	84¢	$120	0x4129a0…
06-28 12:06:50	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	114	99¢	$113	0x1ff141…
06-27 18:30:46	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	No	BUY	8	87¢	$7	0x67a0c2…
06-27 16:45:08	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	No	BUY	100	84¢	$84	0xcc40b5…
06-20 13:25:16	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	9	74¢	$7	0x2cbd43…
06-20 13:24:53	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	120	75¢	$90	0x1cf5de…
06-20 13:24:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	108	90¢	$97	0x200ad8…
06-20 13:04:34	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	No	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0x9f127f…
06-14 23:02:21	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	No	BUY	3,000	1¢	$30	0x31b693…
06-14 22:53:07	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	No	BUY	338	1¢	$3	0x204a70…
06-14 22:52:51	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 18 2026	No	BUY	450	1¢	$3	0xbd8f5d…
06-14 22:52:25	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	392	9¢	$35	0x728ca4…
06-14 22:47:54	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	No	BUY	2,445	1¢	$37	0xff9a21…
06-14 22:47:16	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	No	BUY	3,300	2¢	$79	0x0e96d2…
06-14 22:45:34	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	No	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0x6d722d…
06-14 22:45:25	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	No	BUY	961	2¢	$19	0x124b8c…
06-14 22:43:21	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	No	BUY	482	4¢	$19	0xa35c34…
06-14 22:42:42	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	No	BUY	500	5¢	$25	0x1dac73…
06-14 22:42:40	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	No	BUY	22	5¢	$1	0x581b4e…
06-14 22:40:39	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	SELL	229	99¢	$227	0x2b4ac7…
06-14 22:39:22	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 19	Yes	SELL	175	99¢	$174	0x3cee23…
06-14 22:38:25	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	SELL	482	86¢	$414	0x89bd08…
06-14 22:38:10	us iran nuclear deal by july 31	Yes	SELL	96	77¢	$74	0x495a65…
06-14 22:36:49	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	288	12¢	$34	0xbe1b25…
06-14 22:36:40	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	SELL	120	10¢	$12	0x1ae7f8…
06-14 22:35:55	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	2,200	28¢	$607	0xfe7e88…
06-14 22:32:06	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	400	91¢	$366	0x5181c9…
06-14 20:20:33	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	No	BUY	22	69¢	$15	0xa18a70…
06-14 13:11:39	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	495	88¢	$436	0x1c9487…
06-14 13:11:03	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	BUY	120	50¢	$60	0x3f48b0…
06-14 13:08:36	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	40¢	$40	0x1e36ef…
06-14 13:04:19	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	SELL	417	93¢	$389	0x230ce5…
06-14 02:21:15	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	Yes	SELL	115	83¢	$96	0x4d30f5…
06-13 02:46:22	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	Yes	BUY	115	70¢	$80	0xec46da…
06-13 02:45:48	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	BUY	270	87¢	$235	0x03e181…
06-13 02:42:43	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	No	BUY	147	87¢	$128	0x52db92…
06-13 02:42:10	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 19	Yes	BUY	200	54¢	$109	0x37a5eb…
06-12 11:30:58	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	246	84¢	$207	0x7503b0…
06-12 11:30:39	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	94	84¢	$79	0x043b3c…
06-12 11:28:37	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	288	59¢	$170	0x88a808…
06-12 11:28:01	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 16	Yes	BUY	21	53¢	$11	0xac1496…
06-12 11:24:04	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 16	Yes	BUY	11	53¢	$6	0xc474fb…
06-12 11:23:10	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 16	Yes	BUY	60	53¢	$32	0xca715d…
06-12 11:19:43	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	No	SELL	133	95¢	$127	0x3cdb53…
06-12 11:16:46	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	No	SELL	100	38¢	$38	0x230b20…
06-11 20:07:28	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	No	BUY	120	84¢	$101	0xc758d8…
06-11 20:06:28	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	No	SELL	109	94¢	$102	0x7ce05f…
06-11 20:05:28	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 12 2482	No	BUY	120	83¢	$99	0x61c765…
06-11 20:03:16	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	SELL	75	49¢	$37	0xea49a7…
06-11 20:01:54	us iran nuclear deal by july 31	Yes	SELL	45	51¢	$23	0xf5709f…
06-11 20:01:54	us iran nuclear deal by july 31	Yes	SELL	50	52¢	$26	0x821c27…
06-10 02:14:37	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	No	BUY	175	84¢	$147	0xb0d135…
06-10 02:08:57	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	200	65¢	$130	0x00ceed…
06-10 02:08:40	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	200	65¢	$130	0xaa2342…
06-10 02:08:09	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 15 2026 671	No	SELL	300	95¢	$284	0x76952d…
06-09 11:49:27	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	65	83¢	$54	0x4a9379…
06-09 11:46:40	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	No	SELL	100	34¢	$34	0x0be1f4…
06-09 11:40:18	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	Yes	SELL	75	30¢	$22	0x5b66f5…
06-07 20:09:36	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	BUY	29	66¢	$19	0x418fc8…
06-07 20:08:36	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	60	32¢	$19	0xe237aa…
06-06 22:20:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	108	86¢	$93	0x59d876…
06-06 22:20:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	175	14¢	$25	0x40d1f3…
06-06 22:19:24	us iran nuclear deal by july 31	Yes	SELL	192	36¢	$69	0x8e4de6…
06-05 23:17:45	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	160	77¢	$123	0xa9ec18…
06-05 23:14:52	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	No	BUY	100	79¢	$79	0xaadf68…
06-05 23:14:30	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	100	64¢	$64	0xd601e0…
06-05 23:14:12	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 7 2026	No	SELL	175	97¢	$169	0x03f95b…
06-05 23:13:18	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	240	40¢	$96	0x9ddcbd…
06-03 18:37:12	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?	No	SELL	25	92¢	$23	0x5c7738…
06-01 17:12:13	US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	169	44¢	$74	0xc9bb44…
06-01 17:11:47	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	600	69¢	$414	0xd2d414…
06-01 17:10:19	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	51¢	$51	0xac1638…
06-01 17:09:51	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	200	74¢	$148	0x697324…
06-01 17:04:21	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	704	100¢	$702	0xdead38…
06-01 15:22:42	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	240	71¢	$170	0x354521…
06-01 15:21:42	US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	214	43¢	$92	0xc163bd…
06-01 15:16:52	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	SELL	104	30¢	$31	0x43b959…
06-01 15:13:32	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	No	BUY	292	84¢	$245	0xb651cf…
06-01 14:24:34	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	No	BUY	83	86¢	$72	0x763c64…
06-01 14:24:20	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?	No	BUY	200	79¢	$157	0x9009f4…
06-01 14:23:52	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	No	BUY	100	68¢	$68	0xce29fc…