Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2.80K

Unrealized P&L

-$8

Hit rate

82.0%

Resolved

105

Trades

452

lifetime

Volume

$102.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$226

Open exposure

$790

3 positions

First seen

2026-07-17

last 11-10 16:07

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 42 days

Categories

Other

87% 70% -$4,461

Tech

9% 87% +$1,348

Crypto

4% 100% +$314

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

54 active days in 12wk • peak 33 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	+342	$298	85¢	$293	-$5	11-10 16:07
Will gemini-4-carbon-high be the best AI model on November 16, 2026?	Yes	+352	$300	82¢	$290	-$10	11-09 02:48
Next GPT Sol (6.2+) released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	+239	$200	86¢	$207	+$7	11-09 13:04

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	12	$9.7K	5,250	5,250	+0	Yes	+$810	10-06 16:00
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026?	11	$8.3K	4,303	4,303	+0	Yes	+$321	10-05 16:33
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?	7	$5.2K	6,323	6,323	+0	No	-$5,194	10-07 10:59
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	8	$4.1K	2,106	2,106	+0	No	+$91	10-06 05:09
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	19	$4.0K	2,157	2,157	+0	Yes	+$7	09-29 08:40
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	3	$2.8K	2,064	2,064	+0	Yes	-$151	10-05 09:40
Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?	5	$2.5K	1,340	1,340	+0	No	+$43	10-03 04:27
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 1 to October 3, 2026?	1	$2.5K	2,660	0	+2,660	Yes	+$180	10-03 04:28
Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	6	$1.9K	971	971	+0	Yes	+$39	10-19 16:09
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	5	$1.8K	984	984	+0	No	+$129	10-10 07:39
Will Z.ai be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?	3	$1.8K	2,007	0	+2,007	Yes	+$207	09-29 00:43
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	5	$1.6K	834	834	+0	No	+$78	10-16 22:27
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	11	$1.6K	892	892	+0	No	+$121	10-13 11:40
Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?	9	$1.5K	782	782	+0	No	+$60	10-03 04:26
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1515 by December 31, 2026?	4	$1.5K	2,459	0	+2,459	Yes	+$1,000	09-26 01:47
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	2	$1.4K	732	732	+0	Yes	+$21	10-16 15:42
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	11	$1.4K	1,041	1,041	+0	Yes	-$292	10-20 14:03
Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027?	1	$1.4K	1,422	0	+1,422	No	+$22	09-26 01:34
Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027?	3	$1.4K	726	726	+0	No	+$53	10-03 04:26
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	4	$1.4K	690	690	+0	No	+$13	10-22 16:08
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	2	$1.3K	678	678	+0	No	+$8	10-22 03:34
Will Xiaomi be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?	8	$1.3K	1,623	0	+1,623	Yes	+$281	09-29 10:18
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026?	10	$1.3K	1,582	8	+1,574	Yes	+$249	09-20 23:54
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?	3	$1.3K	670	670	+0	Yes	+$1	10-21 15:58
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	3	$1.3K	667	667	+0	No	+$32	10-13 02:15
Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of September 2026?	5	$1.3K	728	728	+0	Yes	-$9	09-20 16:01
Gemini Argon released by October 16, 2026?	9	$1.3K	743	743	+0	Yes	+$158	10-13 16:49
Will Elon tweet 840-879 times in September 2026?	2	$1.3K	671	671	+0	Yes	+$78	10-01 03:35
Will Google be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?	7	$1.2K	1,052	206	+845	Yes	+$43	09-29 08:33
Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 15, 2026?	2	$1.1K	652	652	+0	Yes	+$119	10-07 17:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-10 16:07:55	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	225	89¢	$200	0x599ad8…
11-10 16:05:55	Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	208	100¢	$208	0x27563c…
11-10 14:11:55	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	117	83¢	$98	0x2bd113…
11-10 14:10:46	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	105	93¢	$98	0xfd9468…
11-10 05:39:51	Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	208	96¢	$200	0x422bd2…
11-09 19:32:07	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	196	100¢	$196	0x9414b5…
11-09 13:04:04	Next GPT Sol (6.2+) released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	121	82¢	$100	0x174423…
11-09 13:03:16	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	69	95¢	$65	0xd2273a…
11-09 13:02:52	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	37	95¢	$35	0x7ff1e2…
11-09 02:48:04	Will gemini-4-carbon-high be the best AI model on November 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	233	86¢	$200	0x537751…
11-08 17:27:22	Will gemini-4-carbon-high be the best AI model on November 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	119	84¢	$100	0x212183…
11-08 17:26:55	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	88	88¢	$78	0x41771d…
11-07 01:40:00	LoL: Karmine Corp vs T1 (BO5) - Worlds Playoffs	T1	SELL	206	98¢	$203	0xb0c71c…
11-06 23:49:03	LoL: Karmine Corp vs T1 (BO5) - Worlds Playoffs	T1	BUY	206	97¢	$200	0x326281…
11-06 19:06:19	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	166	61¢	$101	0xb14a2d…
11-06 15:31:16	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	166	61¢	$101	0x9511e6…
11-05 01:37:04	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	333	90¢	$300	0x469719…
11-05 01:00:30	Next GPT Sol (6.2+) released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	118	85¢	$100	0xfb869d…
11-04 02:43:13	LoL: Top Esports vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - Worlds Playoffs	Top Esports	SELL	43	3¢	$1	0x6bcf69…
11-04 02:42:27	LoL: Top Esports vs Invictus Gaming - Game 4 Winner	Invictus Gaming	BUY	111	90¢	$100	0x0ef20a…
11-04 00:45:27	LoL: Top Esports vs Invictus Gaming - Game 3 Winner	Invictus Gaming	SELL	234	99¢	$232	0x9c14d1…
11-04 00:43:57	LoL: Top Esports vs Invictus Gaming - Game 3 Winner	Invictus Gaming	BUY	108	93¢	$100	0xcca356…
11-04 00:29:13	LoL: Top Esports vs Invictus Gaming - Game 3 Winner	Invictus Gaming	BUY	127	79¢	$100	0x4d1c56…
11-03 23:49:28	LoL: Top Esports vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner	Invictus Gaming	SELL	267	58¢	$155	0x3940a4…
11-03 23:48:54	LoL: Top Esports vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner	Invictus Gaming	BUY	267	75¢	$200	0x95c952…
11-03 15:31:16	LoL: Top Esports vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - Worlds Playoffs	Top Esports	BUY	43	46¢	$20	0x2ec9b4…
11-02 18:00:42	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	109	92¢	$100	0x295848…
11-02 18:00:36	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	115	87¢	$100	0xe4e3ee…
11-02 17:59:49	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	SELL	314	83¢	$260	0x0f550e…
11-02 07:31:27	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	314	96¢	$300	0x24e9bf…
11-02 02:41:48	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	238	84¢	$200	0xc8d4ea…
11-01 13:44:06	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	80¢	$26	0x336b7c…
11-01 02:38:40	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	No	BUY	905	99¢	$900	0xb4eba0…
10-28 18:28:13	Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	333	90¢	$300	0xf5b092…
10-28 17:58:28	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	112	94¢	$105	0xc490f0…
10-28 08:16:59	Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	197	84¢	$165	0x0bd29e…
10-26 17:37:12	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	250	91¢	$229	0xd62801…
10-26 17:22:38	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	115	87¢	$100	0xdf7d1b…
10-26 17:15:15	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	330	100¢	$329	0x4e5ffa…
10-26 15:49:26	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0x607809…
10-26 15:08:03	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	126	98¢	$124	0x537eae…
10-26 14:16:39	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x21409d…
10-26 02:29:29	Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	76¢	$21	0x324c3b…
10-25 15:42:09	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	No	BUY	344	100¢	$343	0x0f9a66…
10-24 17:32:38	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	112	90¢	$100	0x2955e8…
10-24 12:41:54	Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	94	69¢	$65	0x62a9af…
10-24 05:44:12	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?	No	SELL	509	100¢	$508	0x29d7eb…
10-23 18:23:44	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?	No	BUY	509	98¢	$500	0xb81f03…
10-23 15:56:41	Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	269	74¢	$200	0xd8f192…
10-22 16:09:12	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	700	99¢	$690	0xac7204…
10-22 16:08:41	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	SELL	690	100¢	$690	0x35fb8d…
10-22 03:38:59	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	562	98¢	$552	0xdbe1ee…
10-22 03:38:14	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	26	98¢	$25	0x68eb83…
10-22 03:37:47	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0x82354e…
10-22 03:34:24	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	SELL	678	100¢	$677	0x76aacf…
10-21 16:00:14	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	678	99¢	$669	0xd5f75c…
10-21 15:58:51	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?	Yes	SELL	670	100¢	$669	0x6bb16d…
10-21 15:52:02	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	68	99¢	$68	0x82131a…
10-21 15:51:18	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 19 to October 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	601	100¢	$600	0xc4d5b2…
10-20 14:03:51	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	SELL	92	51¢	$47	0xeb7a8a…
10-20 14:03:39	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	SELL	92	51¢	$47	0x15ea6b…
10-20 14:03:23	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	SELL	61	52¢	$32	0x5adaba…
10-20 14:03:09	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	SELL	82	53¢	$43	0x3b0e63…
10-20 14:03:00	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	46¢	$3	0xbe6fdf…
10-20 14:02:53	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	SELL	93	45¢	$42	0xc31496…
10-20 14:02:35	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	SELL	36	46¢	$17	0xd67aec…
10-20 12:59:08	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	443	98¢	$435	0xd23be5…
10-20 12:58:14	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	136	37¢	$50	0xf208c3…
10-20 05:21:21	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	328	91¢	$300	0x640c07…
10-19 23:59:20	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	SELL	578	56¢	$326	0x6951fb…
10-19 16:12:53	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	578	87¢	$500	0x525826…
10-19 16:09:33	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	971	100¢	$971	0x7ce2f9…
10-17 16:31:45	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	97¢	$4	0x1eb050…
10-17 16:29:27	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	518	97¢	$500	0x889af8…
10-17 16:21:05	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	99	95¢	$94	0x2aef4a…
10-17 16:17:48	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	316	95¢	$300	0x464469…
10-17 16:02:11	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	95¢	$33	0x1f0b6b…
10-17 11:51:02	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	11¢	$0	0x6173a3…
10-17 11:49:08	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	Yes	SELL	364	9¢	$34	0x7bc000…
10-17 03:18:15	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	368	46¢	$170	0x429a5e…
10-17 01:12:18	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	No	BUY	190	79¢	$150	0xb3c207…
10-17 00:59:14	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	No	BUY	101	80¢	$81	0xb90b0f…
10-17 00:48:27	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	No	BUY	51	82¢	$42	0x1aa109…
10-17 00:48:24	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	No	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0xc508c2…
10-17 00:47:17	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	No	BUY	200	82¢	$164	0xc9c3aa…
10-17 00:47:15	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	No	BUY	100	82¢	$82	0xe4d825…
10-17 00:46:54	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	No	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0xb07715…
10-17 00:45:39	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	No	BUY	7	82¢	$6	0xde10d1…
10-17 00:43:54	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	No	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x91034a…
10-17 00:42:24	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	No	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x4842f0…
10-17 00:41:09	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	No	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x758029…
10-17 00:39:56	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	No	BUY	26	82¢	$21	0xea4309…
10-17 00:39:39	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	No	BUY	7	82¢	$6	0xb9485d…
10-17 00:38:09	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	No	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0xaa54e8…
10-17 00:36:39	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	No	BUY	7	82¢	$6	0x3bcd32…
10-17 00:35:09	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	No	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0xfe9d2e…
10-17 00:33:54	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	No	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x2c70a0…
10-17 00:32:39	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	No	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0xfc5fce…
10-17 00:31:23	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	No	BUY	7	82¢	$6	0x9cc600…
10-17 00:30:24	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?	No	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x6cb1d9…