Earnest-Assumption — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$5

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

80.7%

Resolved

Trades

1,920

lifetime

Volume

$5.19K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-22

last 05-05 02:14

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

87% 82% $-6

Other

10% — —

Sports

2% 100% +$1

Politics

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

15 active days in 12wk • peak 39 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
btc updown 15m 1770444000	9	$39	80	0	+80	open	—	02-07 05:59
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-25?	4	$38	20	20	+0	open	—	04-25 15:57
Angers SCO vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score	4	$36	21	21	+0	open	—	04-25 19:00
ucl psg1 liv1 2026 04 08 psg1	2	$29	19	19	+0	open	—	04-09 05:04
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25?	3	$28	16	16	+0	open	—	04-25 18:28
Athletic Club leading at halftime?	1	$26	33	0	+33	open	—	04-25 19:07
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: Both Teams to Score	2	$23	14	14	+0	open	—	04-25 20:13
Will Querétaro FC win on 2026-04-24?	3	$23	12	12	+0	open	—	04-25 05:04
another critical cloudflare incident by march 31 723 844 877 246 427 922	2	$22	25	25	+0	open	—	01-25 20:19
mex leo ame 2026 04 21 ame	4	$21	14	13	+0	open	—	04-22 05:07
btc updown 15m 1770440400	5	$20	30	10	+20	open	—	02-07 05:03
btc updown 15m 1770443100	2	$19	40	0	+40	open	—	02-07 05:46
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$16	30	30	+0	open	—	04-09 05:06
Celtics vs. 76ers: 1H Moneyline	6	$16	16	16	+0	open	—	04-27 00:01
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-25?	2	$15	12	12	+0	open	—	04-25 20:42
nba cle tor 2026 04 23	3	$15	25	0	+25	open	—	04-24 01:53
lal bet rea 2026 04 24 bet	3	$14	8	8	+0	open	—	04-24 21:18
Chelsea FC vs. Leeds United FC: Both Teams to Score	2	$14	9	9	+0	open	—	04-26 16:06
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	4	$13	10	10	+0	open	—	02-05 18:05
Will Club Puebla win on 2026-04-24?	2	$12	8	8	+0	open	—	04-25 04:24
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	3	$12	23	23	+0	No	+$1	04-09 05:06
eth updown 15m 1770526800	2	$11	15	0	+15	open	—	02-08 05:07
Magic vs. Pistons: 1H Moneyline	3	$11	15	7	+9	open	—	04-29 23:38
Will Atlético Nacional win on 2026-04-25?	3	$11	7	7	+0	open	—	04-25 23:42
nba den min 2026 04 23	2	$11	7	7	+0	open	—	04-24 02:38
Madrid Open: Camila Osorio vs Naomi Osaka	2	$11	7	7	+0	open	—	04-23 16:05
dfb lev bay 2026 04 22 bay	2	$11	6	6	+0	open	—	04-22 21:19
mex tij pac 2026 04 22 pac	2	$11	7	7	+0	open	—	04-23 03:41
another critical cloudflare incident by may 31 2026	2	$11	9	9	+0	open	—	04-25 18:59
lal bar cel 2026 04 22 bar	2	$11	6	6	+0	open	—	04-22 21:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-05 02:14:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Down	SELL	2	20¢	$0	0x63943a…
05-05 02:14:28	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0x57317a…
05-05 02:14:22	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Down	SELL	2	92¢	$2	0xcdbc42…
05-05 02:14:20	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0x787454…
05-05 02:14:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0xee6c67…
05-05 02:09:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Down	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0x67d064…
05-05 02:04:04	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Up	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0x551909…
05-05 01:59:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0xc83d9d…
05-05 01:59:18	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0xb7995a…
05-05 01:54:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0xe2fabb…
05-05 01:54:04	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x2c0879…
05-05 01:49:04	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0x9c85ff…
05-05 01:49:04	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x8f7fc3…
05-05 01:44:12	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x84cc51…
05-05 01:44:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0x837058…
05-05 01:39:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0x80d8e3…
05-05 01:29:22	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0xb93772…
05-05 01:29:12	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0x0981f1…
05-05 01:24:04	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0x533d94…
05-05 01:19:46	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Down	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0x40ae9f…
05-05 01:14:26	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0x94b458…
05-05 01:14:10	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0x610013…
05-05 01:09:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0xdf9f50…
05-05 01:04:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Down	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0xea0b0e…
05-05 00:59:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x96434b…
05-05 00:49:46	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x41417f…
05-05 00:49:38	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0x7230c4…
05-05 00:49:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0xa2ab92…
05-05 00:44:04	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0xeeb8fe…
05-05 00:39:04	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Down	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0xa81e6e…
05-05 00:39:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Down	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x2ce89b…
05-05 00:29:06	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x0fe3a0…
05-05 00:24:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0xb6446e…
05-05 00:19:24	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0xef07d4…
05-05 00:14:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0xd867e9…
05-05 00:14:08	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0x05e5d7…
05-05 00:09:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0x421083…
05-04 01:19:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x14c356…
05-04 01:14:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0x7a523a…
05-04 00:14:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0x753264…
05-03 23:59:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0x3dcb9d…
05-03 23:59:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Down	SELL	2	75¢	$2	0x13cd16…
05-03 23:59:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x013a96…
05-03 23:49:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0xd17d66…
05-03 23:49:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	SELL	2	63¢	$1	0xbe46b2…
05-03 23:49:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x57bdb6…
05-03 23:39:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0xbd4e50…
05-03 23:34:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Down	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0x248852…
05-03 23:14:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0xecf76d…
05-03 22:49:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0xdab72d…
05-03 22:29:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x8b7fa0…
05-03 21:49:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0x99f701…
05-03 20:34:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x580843…
05-03 20:29:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0x46d8b1…
05-03 20:24:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0xac0f50…
05-03 20:14:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0x1fab16…
04-30 03:50:44	Rockets vs. Lakers	Lakers	BUY	22	44¢	$10	0x572565…
04-30 02:35:54	Rockets vs. Lakers: 1H Moneyline	Lakers	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x09d6b2…
04-30 00:34:50	Raptors vs. Cavaliers: 1H Moneyline	Cavaliers	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0xb16915…
04-29 23:38:44	Magic vs. Pistons: 1H Moneyline	Magic	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xea2bb3…
04-29 23:15:20	Magic vs. Pistons: 1H Moneyline	Pistons	SELL	7	83¢	$5	0xeefab3…
04-29 23:07:22	Magic vs. Pistons: 1H Moneyline	Pistons	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x6e55b1…
04-27 02:36:00	Lakers vs. Rockets: 1H Moneyline	Rockets	SELL	5	69¢	$3	0x91cfe6…
04-27 01:23:48	Lakers vs. Rockets: 1H Moneyline	Rockets	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0xfc7ce3…
04-27 01:21:30	CA Mineiro vs. CR Flamengo: Both Teams to Score	Yes	SELL	6	6¢	$0	0x77ab6a…
04-27 00:01:38	Celtics vs. 76ers: 1H Moneyline	Celtics	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x00f124…
04-26 23:47:46	CA Mineiro vs. CR Flamengo: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	6	62¢	$4	0x64e8be…
04-26 23:39:16	Celtics vs. 76ers: 1H Moneyline	Celtics	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x958e36…
04-26 23:39:08	Celtics vs. 76ers: 1H Moneyline	Celtics	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x9da005…
04-26 23:32:46	Celtics vs. 76ers: 1H Moneyline	Celtics	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x1df01c…
04-26 23:29:06	Celtics vs. 76ers: 1H Moneyline	76ers	SELL	11	20¢	$2	0xf0e461…
04-26 23:09:20	Celtics vs. 76ers: 1H Moneyline	76ers	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x03aeb9…
04-26 21:48:46	Will Once Caldas win on 2026-04-26?	Yes	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x20cb1f…
04-26 18:16:18	Will CA Osasuna vs. Sevilla FC end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x475fe8…
04-26 18:04:20	CA Osasuna vs. Sevilla FC: Both Teams to Score	No	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0xa2aa70…
04-26 18:01:26	Will Torino FC vs. FC Internazionale Milano end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x96ff60…
04-26 17:42:06	Will Torino FC vs. FC Internazionale Milano end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	6	61¢	$4	0xff1158…
04-26 17:37:48	Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-26?	Yes	SELL	6	33¢	$2	0xecb4fa…
04-26 17:28:32	Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-26?	Yes	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0x7cbc4e…
04-26 16:06:18	Chelsea FC vs. Leeds United FC: Both Teams to Score	No	SELL	9	100¢	$9	0x06c3bb…
04-26 16:05:30	Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-25?	Yes	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0xa042fa…
04-26 15:52:40	Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-25?	Yes	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0xa75bb9…
04-26 15:18:34	Chelsea FC vs. Leeds United FC: Both Teams to Score	No	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xb52069…
04-25 23:42:20	Will Atlético Nacional win on 2026-04-25?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x06b1be…
04-25 22:56:14	Deportivo Pereira vs. Atlético Nacional: Both Teams to Score	No	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x9ce3e4…
04-25 22:38:36	Deportivo Pereira vs. Atlético Nacional: Both Teams to Score	No	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0xe35d5c…
04-25 21:45:40	Will Atlético Nacional win on 2026-04-25?	No	SELL	2	87¢	$1	0x216fe6…
04-25 21:19:40	Will Atlético Nacional win on 2026-04-25?	No	BUY	7	64¢	$4	0xdf9ae2…
04-25 20:42:04	Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-25?	Yes	SELL	12	84¢	$10	0x7b0898…
04-25 20:13:42	Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: Both Teams to Score	Yes	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0xf5ebfa…
04-25 20:09:48	Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-25?	Yes	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0xfc79dc…
04-25 19:54:00	Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: Both Teams to Score	Yes	BUY	14	65¢	$9	0xd8d429…
04-25 19:07:02	Athletic Club leading at halftime?	No	BUY	33	80¢	$26	0x72474e…
04-25 19:00:28	Angers SCO vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score	No	SELL	21	100¢	$21	0x3a14e1…
04-25 18:59:38	another critical cloudflare incident by may 31 2026	No	SELL	9	68¢	$6	0x11efa5…
04-25 18:40:04	Angers SCO vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score	No	BUY	9	79¢	$7	0x25f195…
04-25 18:35:06	Angers SCO vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score	No	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x74e5cf…
04-25 18:33:14	Angers SCO vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score	No	BUY	7	81¢	$6	0x398390…
04-25 18:28:48	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25?	Yes	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0x799240…
04-25 17:35:30	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25?	Yes	BUY	7	82¢	$6	0xb39597…