Earnest-Assumption — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$5

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

80.7%

Resolved

Trades

1,955

lifetime

Volume

$5.36K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-22

last 06-30 22:19

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

84% 82% $-6

Other

13% — —

Sports

2% 100% +$1

Politics

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

18 active days in 12wk • peak 39 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
btc updown 15m 1770444000	9	$39	80	0	+80	open	—	02-07 05:59
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-25?	4	$38	20	20	+0	open	—	04-25 15:57
Angers SCO vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score	4	$36	21	21	+0	open	—	04-25 19:00
fifwc ger par 2026 06 29 team to advance	6	$32	27	16	+11	open	—	06-29 22:56
ucl psg1 liv1 2026 04 08 psg1	2	$29	19	19	+0	open	—	04-09 05:04
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25?	3	$28	16	16	+0	open	—	04-25 18:28
Athletic Club leading at halftime?	1	$26	33	0	+33	open	—	04-25 19:07
fifwc fra swe 2026 06 30 btts first half	4	$25	14	14	+0	open	—	06-30 21:34
fifwc civ nor 2026 06 30 btts first half	5	$24	13	13	+0	open	—	06-30 17:34
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: Both Teams to Score	2	$23	14	14	+0	open	—	04-25 20:13
Will Querétaro FC win on 2026-04-24?	3	$23	12	12	+0	open	—	04-25 05:04
another critical cloudflare incident by march 31 723 844 877 246 427 922	2	$22	25	25	+0	open	—	01-25 20:19
mex leo ame 2026 04 21 ame	4	$21	14	13	+0	open	—	04-22 05:07
btc updown 15m 1770440400	5	$20	30	10	+20	open	—	02-07 05:03
btc updown 15m 1770443100	2	$19	40	0	+40	open	—	02-07 05:46
fifwc civ nor 2026 06 30 team to advance	4	$19	11	11	+0	open	—	06-30 18:56
fifwc bra jpn 2026 06 29 btts first half	5	$18	11	11	+0	open	—	06-29 17:42
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$16	30	30	+0	open	—	04-09 05:06
Celtics vs. 76ers: 1H Moneyline	6	$16	16	16	+0	open	—	04-27 00:01
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-25?	2	$15	12	12	+0	open	—	04-25 20:42
nba cle tor 2026 04 23	3	$15	25	0	+25	open	—	04-24 01:53
lal bet rea 2026 04 24 bet	3	$14	8	8	+0	open	—	04-24 21:18
Chelsea FC vs. Leeds United FC: Both Teams to Score	2	$14	9	9	+0	open	—	04-26 16:06
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	4	$13	10	10	+0	open	—	02-05 18:05
Will Club Puebla win on 2026-04-24?	2	$12	8	8	+0	open	—	04-25 04:24
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	3	$12	23	23	+0	No	+$1	04-09 05:06
eth updown 15m 1770526800	2	$11	15	0	+15	open	—	02-08 05:07
Magic vs. Pistons: 1H Moneyline	3	$11	15	7	+9	open	—	04-29 23:38
Will Atlético Nacional win on 2026-04-25?	3	$11	7	7	+0	open	—	04-25 23:42
nba den min 2026 04 23	2	$11	7	7	+0	open	—	04-24 02:38

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-02 20:52:49	fifwc esp aut 2026 07 02 total 3pt5	Under	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0xa1d442…
07-02 20:42:35	fifwc esp aut 2026 07 02 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0x68d6c0…
07-02 20:24:47	fifwc esp aut 2026 07 02 btts	No	SELL	5	73¢	$4	0x635061…
07-02 19:44:43	fifwc esp aut 2026 07 02 btts	No	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xbcbb29…
06-30 22:19:38	fifwc fra swe 2026 06 30 spread home 1pt5	France	SELL	3	88¢	$3	0x923f28…
06-30 21:48:43	fifwc fra swe 2026 06 30 spread home 1pt5	France	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0xf73e24…
06-30 21:38:41	fifwc fra swe 2026 06 30 first half total 0pt5	Under	SELL	9	63¢	$5	0x0dec71…
06-30 21:35:23	fifwc fra swe 2026 06 30 first half total 0pt5	Under	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x9e542c…
06-30 21:34:04	fifwc fra swe 2026 06 30 btts first half	No	SELL	7	93¢	$7	0x4c57d4…
06-30 21:18:23	fifwc fra swe 2026 06 30 btts first half	No	BUY	7	87¢	$6	0x8ea862…
06-30 21:16:08	fifwc fra swe 2026 06 30 btts first half	No	SELL	7	87¢	$6	0x493e6b…
06-30 20:54:37	fifwc fra swe 2026 06 30 btts first half	No	BUY	7	79¢	$6	0xe29a2a…
06-30 18:56:37	fifwc civ nor 2026 06 30 team to advance	Norway	SELL	6	98¢	$6	0xa1d791…
06-30 18:47:28	fifwc civ nor 2026 06 30 team to advance	Norway	BUY	6	93¢	$5	0xf215f4…
06-30 18:29:19	fifwc civ nor 2026 06 30 team to advance	Norway	SELL	5	82¢	$4	0xdfa33f…
06-30 17:43:19	fifwc civ nor 2026 06 30 team to advance	Norway	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x6dd2af…
06-30 17:40:08	fifwc civ nor 2026 06 30 btts	No	SELL	10	40¢	$4	0x0b7902…
06-30 17:35:34	fifwc civ nor 2026 06 30 btts	No	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0x703950…
06-30 17:34:49	fifwc civ nor 2026 06 30 btts first half	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x1e54df…
06-30 17:34:05	fifwc civ nor 2026 06 30 btts first half	No	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0x05a693…
06-30 17:27:46	fifwc civ nor 2026 06 30 btts first half	No	BUY	6	94¢	$6	0x3a5852…
06-30 17:26:13	fifwc civ nor 2026 06 30 btts first half	No	SELL	7	95¢	$7	0x98844a…
06-30 17:05:40	fifwc civ nor 2026 06 30 btts first half	No	BUY	7	83¢	$6	0x5dc0a2…
06-29 22:56:52	fifwc ger par 2026 06 29 team to advance	Germany	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0xad72cf…
06-29 22:54:32	fifwc ger par 2026 06 29 team to advance	Germany	BUY	4	72¢	$3	0x2746e7…
06-29 22:45:01	fifwc ger par 2026 06 29 team to advance	Germany	SELL	7	88¢	$6	0xeba740…
06-29 22:43:41	fifwc ger par 2026 06 29 team to advance	Germany	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0x837ea6…
06-29 21:46:52	fifwc ger par 2026 06 29 team to advance	Germany	SELL	9	77¢	$7	0x65a38b…
06-29 21:22:41	fifwc ger par 2026 06 29 team to advance	Germany	BUY	9	64¢	$6	0xa92f7b…
06-29 17:42:07	fifwc bra jpn 2026 06 29 btts first half	No	SELL	5	85¢	$4	0xaefb5a…
06-29 17:37:37	fifwc bra jpn 2026 06 29 btts first half	No	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0xbea5a6…
06-29 17:20:17	fifwc bra jpn 2026 06 29 btts first half	No	SELL	1	92¢	$0	0x248f29…
06-29 17:19:38	fifwc bra jpn 2026 06 29 btts first half	No	SELL	5	92¢	$5	0x36ded9…
06-29 17:01:59	fifwc bra jpn 2026 06 29 btts first half	No	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x62def9…
06-28 17:20:55	fifwc rsa can 2026 06 28 team to advance	Canada	SELL	7	72¢	$5	0x31db09…
06-28 14:02:17	fifwc rsa can 2026 06 28 team to advance	Canada	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x267397…
06-27 03:58:59	fifwc nzl bel 2026 06 26 first half total 1pt5	Under	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x681707…
06-27 03:57:17	fifwc nzl bel 2026 06 26 btts	No	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0xd42501…
06-27 03:49:11	fifwc nzl bel 2026 06 26 first half total 1pt5	Under	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x2a9da1…
05-05 02:14:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Down	SELL	2	20¢	$0	0x63943a…
05-05 02:14:28	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0x57317a…
05-05 02:14:22	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Down	SELL	2	92¢	$2	0xcdbc42…
05-05 02:14:20	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0x787454…
05-05 02:14:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0xee6c67…
05-05 02:09:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Down	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0x67d064…
05-05 02:04:04	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Up	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0x551909…
05-05 01:59:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0xc83d9d…
05-05 01:59:18	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0xb7995a…
05-05 01:54:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0xe2fabb…
05-05 01:54:04	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x2c0879…
05-05 01:49:04	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0x9c85ff…
05-05 01:49:04	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x8f7fc3…
05-05 01:44:12	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x84cc51…
05-05 01:44:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0x837058…
05-05 01:39:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0x80d8e3…
05-05 01:29:22	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0xb93772…
05-05 01:29:12	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0x0981f1…
05-05 01:24:04	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0x533d94…
05-05 01:19:46	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Down	BUY	4	47¢	$2	0x40ae9f…
05-05 01:14:26	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0x94b458…
05-05 01:14:10	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0x610013…
05-05 01:09:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0xdf9f50…
05-05 01:04:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Down	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0xea0b0e…
05-05 00:59:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x96434b…
05-05 00:49:46	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x41417f…
05-05 00:49:38	XRP Up or Down - May 4, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0x7230c4…
05-05 00:49:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0xa2ab92…
05-05 00:44:04	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0xeeb8fe…
05-05 00:39:04	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Down	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0xa81e6e…
05-05 00:39:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Down	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x2ce89b…
05-05 00:29:06	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x0fe3a0…
05-05 00:24:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0xb6446e…
05-05 00:19:24	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0xef07d4…
05-05 00:14:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0xd867e9…
05-05 00:14:08	Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0x05e5d7…
05-05 00:09:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0x421083…
05-04 01:19:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x14c356…
05-04 01:14:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0x7a523a…
05-04 00:14:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0x753264…
05-03 23:59:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0x3dcb9d…
05-03 23:59:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Down	SELL	2	75¢	$2	0x13cd16…
05-03 23:59:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x013a96…
05-03 23:49:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0xd17d66…
05-03 23:49:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	SELL	2	63¢	$1	0xbe46b2…
05-03 23:49:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x57bdb6…
05-03 23:39:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0xbd4e50…
05-03 23:34:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Down	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0x248852…
05-03 23:14:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0xecf76d…
05-03 22:49:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0xdab72d…
05-03 22:29:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x8b7fa0…
05-03 21:49:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0x99f701…
05-03 20:34:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x580843…
05-03 20:29:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0x46d8b1…
05-03 20:24:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0xac0f50…
05-03 20:14:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0x1fab16…
04-30 03:50:44	Rockets vs. Lakers	Lakers	BUY	22	44¢	$10	0x572565…
04-30 02:35:54	Rockets vs. Lakers: 1H Moneyline	Lakers	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x09d6b2…
04-30 00:34:50	Raptors vs. Cavaliers: 1H Moneyline	Cavaliers	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0xb16915…
04-29 23:38:44	Magic vs. Pistons: 1H Moneyline	Magic	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xea2bb3…
04-29 23:15:20	Magic vs. Pistons: 1H Moneyline	Pistons	SELL	7	83¢	$5	0xeefab3…