Earnest-Assumption — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$13

Unrealized P&L

+$13

Hit rate

87.2%

Resolved

1,195

Trades

2,241

lifetime

Volume

$6.34K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$92

1 position

First seen

2026-01-22

last 07-22 05:34

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 72 days

Categories

Crypto

75% 87% -$32

Other

16% 62% -$30

Sports

8% 53% +$78

Politics

1% 57% -$4

Tech

0% 100% +$1

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-22).

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes		+527	$79	18¢	$92	+$13	07-22 05:34

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	5	$294	556	898	-342	No	+$109	07-10 19:35
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	1	$79	527	0	+527	open	—	07-22 05:34
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-07 06:00 UTC	9	$39	80	0	+80	Down	+$1	02-07 05:59
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-25?	4	$38	20	20	+0	Yes	+$1	04-25 15:57
Angers SCO vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score	4	$36	21	21	+0	No	+$5	04-25 19:00
fifwc ger par 2026 06 29 team to advance	6	$32	27	16	+11	Paraguay	-$6	06-29 22:56
ucl psg1 liv1 2026 04 08 psg1	2	$29	19	19	+0	Yes	+$9	04-09 05:04
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25?	3	$28	16	16	+0	Yes	+$4	04-25 18:28
Athletic Club leading at halftime?	1	$26	33	0	+33	Yes	-$26	04-25 19:07
fifwc fra swe 2026 06 30 btts first half	4	$25	14	14	+0	No	+$1	06-30 21:34
fifwc civ nor 2026 06 30 btts first half	5	$24	13	13	+0	No	+$1	06-30 17:34
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: Both Teams to Score	2	$23	14	14	+0	Yes	+$5	04-25 20:13
Will Querétaro FC win on 2026-04-24?	3	$23	12	12	+0	Yes	+$1	04-25 05:04
another critical cloudflare incident by march 31 723 844 877 246 427 922	2	$22	25	25	+0	Yes	+$2	01-25 20:19
Will Argentina vs. Switzerland end in a draw?	6	$22	15	15	+0	Yes	+$0	07-12 02:59
mex leo ame 2026 04 21 ame	4	$21	14	13	+0	Yes	+$2	04-22 05:07
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-07 05:00 UTC	5	$20	30	10	+20	Up	+$2	02-07 05:03
Will Lamine Yamal win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$20	15	15	+0	No	-$5	07-19 22:30
fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 team to advance	4	$20	12	12	+0	Argentina	+$2	07-12 03:39
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-07 05:45 UTC	2	$19	40	0	+40	Down	+$1	02-07 05:46
fifwc civ nor 2026 06 30 team to advance	4	$19	11	11	+0	Norway	+$1	06-30 18:56
fifwc bra jpn 2026 06 29 btts first half	5	$18	11	11	+0	No	+$1	06-29 17:42
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$16	30	30	+0	No	+$1	04-09 05:06
Celtics vs. 76ers: 1H Moneyline	6	$16	16	16	+0	Celtics	-$2	04-27 00:01
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-25?	2	$15	12	12	+0	Yes	+$5	04-25 20:42
nba cle tor 2026 04 23	3	$15	25	0	+25	Raptors	-$15	04-24 01:53
fifwc aus egy 2026 07 03 penalty shootout	4	$14	10	10	+0	Yes	+$1	07-03 20:28
mex pum pac 2026 07 18 total 2pt5	4	$14	12	10	+2	Over	-$3	07-19 00:42
lal bet rea 2026 04 24 bet	3	$14	8	8	+0	No	+$2	04-24 21:18
Chelsea FC vs. Leeds United FC: Both Teams to Score	2	$14	9	9	+0	No	+$4	04-26 16:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-22 05:34:43	Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	BUY	527	15¢	$79	0xc64b1b…
07-19 22:30:49	Will Lamine Yamal win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	15	51¢	$8	0x1cbfe6…
07-19 16:17:24	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	85¢	$4	0xba708f…
07-19 01:02:33	mex pum pac 2026 07 18 btts first half	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x3ab798…
07-19 01:02:19	mex mon1 san 2026 07 18 btts first half	No	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0xc6b9c1…
07-19 01:01:43	mex mon1 san 2026 07 18 btts first half	No	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0xefa46b…
07-19 00:42:51	mex pum pac 2026 07 18 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x9f8e43…
07-19 00:38:18	mex pum pac 2026 07 18 total 2pt5	Over	SELL	10	53¢	$5	0x03ab9d…
07-19 00:11:27	mex pum pac 2026 07 18 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0xf40acd…
07-19 00:11:27	mex pum pac 2026 07 18 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	0	78¢	$0	0x21e1b1…
07-18 23:31:33	mex pum pac 2026 07 18 btts first half	No	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x115010…
07-18 21:03:10	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 btts first half	No	SELL	5	38¢	$2	0x81a327…
07-18 19:31:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-18 19:30 UTC	Up	SELL	1	79¢	$1	0xa6c203…
07-18 19:31:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-18 19:30 UTC	Up	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x8b3757…
07-18 11:21:21	will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	Yes	SELL	5	50¢	$2	0xf7c701…
07-18 04:16:40	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-18 04:15 UTC	Down	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x1098e3…
07-18 00:04:40	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-18 00:00 UTC	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x121a26…
07-17 22:51:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 22:50 UTC	Up	SELL	1	82¢	$1	0x488414…
07-17 22:50:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 22:50 UTC	Up	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xdf5fae…
07-17 21:22:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 21:20 UTC	Down	SELL	1	55¢	$1	0x0b05cd…
07-17 21:22:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 21:20 UTC	Down	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xab8da7…
07-17 20:42:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 20:40 UTC	Down	SELL	2	27¢	$0	0x6525a7…
07-17 20:42:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 20:40 UTC	Down	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xfd912f…
07-17 20:41:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 20:40 UTC	Down	SELL	2	50¢	$1	0x892599…
07-17 20:41:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 20:40 UTC	Down	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x2de53b…
07-17 20:29:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 20:25 UTC	Down	SELL	2	39¢	$1	0x1c8af0…
07-17 20:28:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 20:25 UTC	Down	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0xfcf534…
07-17 20:26:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 20:25 UTC	Up	SELL	1	49¢	$1	0xeee8fc…
07-17 20:26:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 20:25 UTC	Up	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x798e83…
07-17 20:20:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 20:20 UTC	Up	SELL	2	75¢	$1	0x4b40e8…
07-17 20:20:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 20:20 UTC	Up	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xaba0ba…
07-17 20:19:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 20:15 UTC	Down	SELL	1	55¢	$1	0x4c940e…
07-17 20:19:24	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 20:15 UTC	Down	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x9102d4…
07-17 19:57:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 19:55 UTC	Down	SELL	2	76¢	$1	0xb29a80…
07-17 19:56:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 19:55 UTC	Down	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x097790…
07-17 19:52:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 19:50 UTC	Up	SELL	2	80¢	$1	0x199f5c…
07-17 19:50:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 19:50 UTC	Up	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xf11fee…
07-17 19:47:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 19:45 UTC	Down	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0x952a5f…
07-17 19:46:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 19:45 UTC	Down	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xc2eb97…
07-17 19:46:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 19:45 UTC	Up	SELL	2	40¢	$1	0xbef527…
07-17 19:45:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 19:45 UTC	Up	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0xde5e1c…
07-17 19:43:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 19:40 UTC	Up	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x0d798f…
07-17 19:41:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 19:40 UTC	Up	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0xdb8a80…
07-17 18:12:30	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 18:10 UTC	Up	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xea69da…
07-17 17:56:30	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 17:55 UTC	Down	SELL	2	49¢	$1	0x7452f1…
07-17 17:55:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 17:55 UTC	Up	SELL	3	46¢	$1	0xd399f9…
07-17 17:55:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 17:55 UTC	Down	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x42de7d…
07-17 17:55:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 17:55 UTC	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xfd2004…
07-17 17:52:10	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 17:50 UTC	Down	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xedc992…
07-17 17:51:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 17:50 UTC	Down	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0xa8a3b3…
07-17 17:26:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 17:25 UTC	Up	SELL	2	82¢	$1	0xe15852…
07-17 17:25:24	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 17:25 UTC	Up	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x0f52d9…
07-17 16:53:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 16:50 UTC	Up	SELL	1	63¢	$1	0xd19479…
07-17 16:52:18	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 16:50 UTC	Up	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0xe2c844…
07-17 16:52:09	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 16:50 UTC	Down	SELL	2	22¢	$0	0xc39318…
07-17 16:50:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 16:50 UTC	Down	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0xde62bd…
07-17 16:48:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 16:45 UTC	Up	SELL	2	93¢	$1	0xd5d111…
07-17 16:47:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 16:45 UTC	Up	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x953e71…
07-17 15:46:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 15:45 UTC	Down	SELL	1	83¢	$1	0x17faca…
07-17 15:45:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 15:45 UTC	Down	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x5ef45c…
07-16 21:12:32	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 btts first half	No	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x6f8392…
07-16 00:29:37	Will Lamine Yamal win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	15	82¢	$12	0x9edae3…
07-15 20:54:07	Will England vs. Argentina end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	5	8¢	$0	0x5abe74…
07-15 20:18:50	Will England vs. Argentina end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0xc6a6a0…
07-15 20:15:46	England vs. Argentina: Second half draw?	Yes	SELL	5	27¢	$1	0xfb8c24…
07-15 19:58:34	England vs. Argentina: Second half draw?	Yes	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x6d3890…
07-15 12:51:28	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0x557931…
07-15 10:54:37	nothing ever happens july 20260626174334834	Nothing	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0x6b2317…
07-15 00:59:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x1f5cff…
07-15 00:54:46	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-15 00:45 UTC	Up	SELL	5	89¢	$4	0x8c9471…
07-15 00:52:58	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-15 00:45 UTC	Up	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0xe485a2…
07-15 00:28:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Down	SELL	5	51¢	$3	0x5a9c2d…
07-15 00:26:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 00:25 UTC	Down	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x1a1183…
07-15 00:25:07	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-15 00:15 UTC	Down	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0x61c362…
07-15 00:24:02	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-15 00:15 UTC	Down	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0xfcba1f…
07-14 23:55:01	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 23:45 UTC	Up	SELL	5	70¢	$4	0xcc0615…
07-14 23:49:56	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 23:45 UTC	Up	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x21a3f5…
07-14 23:49:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-14 23:45 UTC	Down	SELL	3	22¢	$1	0x2e4f26…
07-14 23:48:32	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-14 23:45 UTC	Down	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0x3b9b30…
07-14 23:44:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-14 23:40 UTC	Up	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0x7f45d0…
07-14 23:43:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-14 23:40 UTC	Up	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0xdfe490…
07-14 23:41:31	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 23:30 UTC	Up	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0x6f7271…
07-14 23:41:07	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 23:30 UTC	Up	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0xf02b71…
07-14 20:57:44	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 btts second half	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0x10275f…
07-14 20:56:10	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 btts second half	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x1d08ab…
07-14 20:22:35	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 team to advance	Spain	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0xf43d21…
07-14 20:21:07	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 team to advance	Spain	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0x6fbd96…
07-14 19:35:35	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 19:30 UTC	Down	SELL	5	81¢	$4	0x11377e…
07-14 19:31:53	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 19:30 UTC	Down	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x7d28a6…
07-14 19:08:52	will anthropic extend claude fable 5 paid plan access again by july 19 20260712201937544	No	SELL	5	75¢	$4	0xeea853…
07-14 17:10:56	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 17:00 UTC	Down	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0xde1f5b…
07-14 17:09:59	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 17:00 UTC	Down	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0x37f68d…
07-14 17:05:59	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 17:00 UTC	Down	SELL	6	79¢	$5	0xaf64cb…
07-14 17:01:19	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 17:00 UTC	Down	BUY	6	62¢	$4	0xda5455…
07-14 16:57:52	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 16:45 UTC	Down	SELL	5	61¢	$3	0xe79990…
07-14 16:57:40	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-14 16:45 UTC	Down	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0xda447d…
07-14 16:24:23	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x212175…
07-14 15:02:25	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0xbc90c4…
07-14 13:25:17	will anthropic extend claude fable 5 paid plan access again by july 19 20260712201937544	No	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x5e8071…
07-14 12:41:05	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	87¢	$4	0xc1d23c…