Complicated-Illusion — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$256

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

68.5%

Resolved

3,651

Trades

5,565

lifetime

Volume

$18.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-07

last 07-22 13:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 56 days

Categories

Crypto

91% 64% -$114

Other

8% 44% -$79

Politics

1% 0% -$64

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-22).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	2	$181	218	218	+0	Yes	-$19	01-31 07:36
will the december 2025 unemployment rate be 4pt5	1	$84	132	0	+132	No	+$48	01-07 12:31
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-05 23:05 UTC	17	$84	55	39	+16	Up	+$2	07-05 23:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	3	$83	49	49	+0	Down	+$13	06-25 20:54
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 22:45 UTC	5	$75	58	58	+0	Down	+$26	07-13 22:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 22:50 UTC	2	$75	50	50	+0	Down	+$24	07-13 22:54
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 16:10 UTC	4	$73	50	50	+0	Down	+$3	07-13 16:13
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-05 22:15 UTC	17	$72	40	40	+0	Up	+$0	07-05 22:28
highest temperature in nyc on april 16 2026 86 87f	38	$70	95	90	+5	Yes	+$2	04-16 12:21
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 55°F or below on April 28?	2	$70	35	35	+0	No	$0	04-27 15:43
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-05 23:00 UTC	12	$70	38	38	-0	Up	$0	07-05 23:08
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on April 28?	2	$70	35	35	+0	No	$0	04-27 15:43
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 15:20 UTC	4	$67	215	215	+0	Down	+$27	07-13 15:24
fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	3	$62	920	920	+0	No	+$19	01-14 16:51
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-05 22:20 UTC	14	$61	35	30	+5	Up	+$1	07-05 22:23
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 22:30 UTC	3	$57	44	44	+0	Down	+$3	07-13 22:32
XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 21:45 UTC	3	$56	32	29	+3	Up	+$3	07-13 21:48
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-25 20:20 UTC	4	$55	31	31	+0	Up	+$5	06-25 20:25
SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-05 22:15 UTC	12	$54	30	30	+0	Up	$0	07-05 22:28
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 21:40 UTC	2	$54	41	41	+0	Up	-$2	07-13 21:40
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 22:25 UTC	3	$52	33	33	+0	Up	+$2	07-13 22:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 21:45 UTC	5	$52	46	41	+5	Up	+$2	07-13 21:45
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 21:40 UTC	4	$50	32	29	+3	Up	+$3	07-13 21:43
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-14 01:10 UTC	8	$50	40	38	+2	Down	+$8	07-14 01:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 21:40 UTC	2	$50	33	30	+3	Up	$0	07-13 21:43
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 16:10 UTC	4	$50	36	36	+0	Down	+$5	07-13 16:14
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 21:50 UTC	8	$49	30	27	+3	Up	+$3	07-13 21:53
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-13 23:05 UTC	7	$49	30	30	+0	Up	+$2	07-13 23:09
SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-14 00:20 UTC	6	$46	32	31	+0	Up	+$0	07-14 00:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-14 00:45 UTC	4	$45	29	29	+0	Up	+$2	07-14 00:49

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-22 13:17:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 13:15 UTC	Down	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x163e2a…
07-22 13:07:40	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-22 13:05 UTC	Down	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0xd2dda3…
07-21 18:20:00	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-21 18:15 UTC	Down	BUY	5	15¢	$1	0xb5a006…
07-21 18:20:00	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-21 18:15 UTC	Down	BUY	3	15¢	$1	0x42c096…
07-21 18:13:36	XRP Up or Down - July 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Up	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0xd0132d…
07-16 02:37:22	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 02:35 UTC	Up	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0x7d736c…
07-16 02:32:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 02:30 UTC	Down	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0xb54feb…
07-16 02:22:17	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 02:20 UTC	Down	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0xcec80a…
07-16 02:17:32	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 02:15 UTC	Down	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0xfa07e5…
07-16 01:42:37	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 01:40 UTC	Down	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0x317da7…
07-16 01:32:17	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 01:30 UTC	Up	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0x367b22…
07-16 01:27:19	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-16 01:15 UTC	Up	BUY	2	83¢	$2	0x7b13c2…
07-16 01:12:29	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 01:10 UTC	Down	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0xaae165…
07-16 01:07:40	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 01:05 UTC	Up	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0xa673a1…
07-16 00:52:38	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 00:50 UTC	Up	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0x6b07c6…
07-16 00:47:29	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 00:45 UTC	Up	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0x64d16b…
07-16 00:37:22	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 00:35 UTC	Down	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0xe4a5df…
07-16 00:27:19	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-16 00:25 UTC	Down	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x9f1d31…
07-15 23:47:20	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 23:45 UTC	Down	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0xa835df…
07-15 23:32:20	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 23:30 UTC	Up	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0x15d34e…
07-15 23:12:58	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 23:10 UTC	Up	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0xa867a2…
07-15 22:27:32	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 22:25 UTC	Up	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x0a7469…
07-15 20:22:25	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 20:20 UTC	Up	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x407294…
07-15 20:17:26	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 20:15 UTC	Up	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0xbd5489…
07-15 20:17:19	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 20:15 UTC	Up	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0xfcd532…
07-15 20:13:16	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 20:10 UTC	Up	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0x947f48…
07-15 20:12:19	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 20:10 UTC	Up	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0xcc7f54…
07-15 20:08:19	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 20:05 UTC	Up	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0xa6e131…
07-15 20:07:29	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 20:05 UTC	Up	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0x95e997…
07-15 20:02:20	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 20:00 UTC	Up	BUY	2	83¢	$2	0x82d47e…
07-15 19:47:22	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 19:45 UTC	Down	BUY	2	83¢	$2	0x32933f…
07-15 19:32:19	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 19:30 UTC	Up	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x96eb0f…
07-15 19:27:20	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 19:25 UTC	Up	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0x52c87f…
07-15 19:17:20	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 19:15 UTC	Down	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0xe36f3c…
07-15 19:12:19	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 19:10 UTC	Down	BUY	2	77¢	$2	0x0c45b4…
07-15 19:07:23	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 19:05 UTC	Down	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0xb73b7e…
07-15 19:05:34	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 team to advance	England	BUY	46	54¢	$25	0x968b7b…
07-15 19:02:25	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 19:00 UTC	Up	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x070672…
07-15 18:52:26	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 18:50 UTC	Down	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0xaa2d1f…
07-15 18:47:53	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 18:45 UTC	Up	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0x43887b…
07-15 18:32:25	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 18:30 UTC	Up	BUY	3	90¢	$2	0xd126a6…
07-15 18:27:26	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 18:25 UTC	Down	BUY	3	89¢	$2	0x97f4cd…
07-15 18:22:35	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 18:20 UTC	Up	BUY	3	88¢	$2	0x3fcc67…
07-15 18:17:59	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 18:15 UTC	Up	BUY	3	89¢	$2	0xc12fcb…
07-15 18:12:20	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 18:10 UTC	Up	BUY	3	86¢	$2	0x93cb78…
07-15 18:08:11	Solana Up or Down - July 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	3	81¢	$2	0xc44aff…
07-15 18:02:19	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 18:00 UTC	Up	BUY	3	80¢	$2	0x1c30e4…
07-15 17:57:25	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 17:55 UTC	Up	BUY	3	85¢	$2	0x246cd4…
07-15 17:52:25	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 17:50 UTC	Up	BUY	3	83¢	$2	0xdb270a…
07-15 17:49:08	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 17:45 UTC	Down	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0x91ce3d…
07-15 17:42:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 17:40 UTC	Down	BUY	3	87¢	$2	0x19c144…
07-15 17:27:19	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 17:25 UTC	Down	BUY	3	89¢	$2	0xaa9b5a…
07-15 17:22:49	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 17:20 UTC	Up	BUY	3	89¢	$2	0x29bddf…
07-15 17:17:19	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 17:15 UTC	Up	BUY	3	86¢	$2	0x0defdc…
07-15 17:12:19	SOL Up/Down 15m · 2026-07-15 17:00 UTC	Up	BUY	3	90¢	$2	0xb1d1b3…
07-15 17:07:19	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 17:05 UTC	Down	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0x849e4a…
07-15 17:02:59	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 17:00 UTC	Up	BUY	3	89¢	$2	0x0bb5cd…
07-15 17:02:23	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 17:00 UTC	Up	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0xf2301a…
07-15 16:59:07	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 16:55 UTC	Down	SELL	3	23¢	$1	0xf2353a…
07-15 16:58:38	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 16:55 UTC	Up	BUY	3	86¢	$2	0x8b5627…
07-15 16:57:38	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 16:55 UTC	Down	BUY	3	83¢	$2	0x1a86dd…
07-15 16:54:01	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 16:50 UTC	Up	BUY	3	88¢	$2	0x3a0f93…
07-15 16:52:29	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 16:50 UTC	Up	BUY	2	74¢	$2	0x1bd4c6…
07-15 16:47:59	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 16:45 UTC	Up	BUY	2	81¢	$2	0xfb54f7…
07-15 16:47:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 16:45 UTC	Up	BUY	3	81¢	$2	0x33d627…
07-15 16:42:23	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 16:40 UTC	Up	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0x169f2a…
07-15 16:42:22	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 16:40 UTC	Up	BUY	3	84¢	$2	0x001f2d…
07-15 16:32:20	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 16:30 UTC	Down	BUY	3	90¢	$2	0x2be37a…
07-15 16:32:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 16:30 UTC	Down	BUY	3	88¢	$2	0xdd973d…
07-15 16:27:43	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 16:25 UTC	Up	BUY	3	87¢	$2	0x31a00e…
07-15 16:27:19	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 16:25 UTC	Up	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0x369e84…
07-15 16:17:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 16:15 UTC	Up	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0x058ad0…
07-15 16:12:26	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 16:10 UTC	Down	BUY	3	83¢	$2	0x623e0c…
07-15 15:59:26	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 15:55 UTC	Down	SELL	3	84¢	$2	0xde5cc2…
07-15 15:57:19	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 15:55 UTC	Down	BUY	3	86¢	$2	0x1fe63f…
07-15 15:57:17	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 15:55 UTC	Down	BUY	3	89¢	$2	0xbc3250…
07-15 15:53:25	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 15:50 UTC	Up	SELL	3	24¢	$1	0x400f60…
07-15 15:53:14	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 15:50 UTC	Up	SELL	3	14¢	$0	0x22a62a…
07-15 15:52:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 15:50 UTC	Up	BUY	3	89¢	$2	0x3fa5ea…
07-15 15:52:19	XRP Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 15:50 UTC	Up	BUY	3	86¢	$2	0x106342…
07-15 15:49:20	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 15:45 UTC	Up	SELL	3	89¢	$3	0xf046a0…
07-15 15:48:49	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 15:45 UTC	Up	BUY	3	85¢	$2	0x316759…
07-15 15:44:19	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 15:40 UTC	Down	SELL	3	79¢	$2	0x395734…
07-15 15:42:35	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 15:40 UTC	Down	BUY	3	83¢	$2	0xa04eb9…
07-15 15:42:19	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 15:40 UTC	Down	BUY	3	81¢	$2	0x60d6d8…
07-15 15:37:55	DOGE Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 15:35 UTC	Up	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0x57a40f…
07-15 15:37:19	SOL Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 15:35 UTC	Up	BUY	3	87¢	$2	0x691901…
07-15 15:33:23	Ethereum Up or Down - July 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Down	SELL	3	19¢	$1	0x8c6ab3…
07-15 15:33:22	Solana Up or Down - July 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Down	SELL	3	35¢	$1	0xa2c087…
07-15 15:33:01	XRP Up or Down - July 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	3	85¢	$2	0xeb55b7…
07-15 15:32:20	Solana Up or Down - July 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Down	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0x6874fb…
07-15 15:32:17	Ethereum Up or Down - July 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Down	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0x54d6e1…
07-15 15:29:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 15:25 UTC	Up	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x721e35…
07-15 15:29:47	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 15:25 UTC	Up	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0xb4d7fc…
07-15 15:27:25	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 15:25 UTC	Up	BUY	3	87¢	$2	0xc30c40…
07-15 15:27:20	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 15:25 UTC	Up	BUY	3	89¢	$2	0x74cae6…
07-15 15:22:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 15:20 UTC	Down	BUY	3	89¢	$2	0x92b0fe…
07-15 15:22:20	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 15:20 UTC	Down	BUY	3	87¢	$2	0x31225d…
07-15 15:18:34	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 15:15 UTC	Down	SELL	3	38¢	$1	0x18f330…
07-15 15:17:40	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 15:15 UTC	Down	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0x51123c…