Attached-Fallacy — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$101

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

86.2%

Resolved

13,458

Trades

17,123

lifetime

Volume

$50.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-28 05:24

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 219 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 88% +$105

Other

0% 81% -$4

Politics

0% 100% +$0

Sports

0% 100% +$1

Tech

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

52 active days in 12wk • peak 81 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-28 17:45 UTC	6	$35	18	18	+0	Up	+$0	02-28 17:49
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-10 00:00 UTC	4	$33	20	20	+0	Up	-$6	02-10 00:14
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-09 14:00 UTC	4	$26	15	15	+0	Up	-$3	02-09 14:15
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-09 23:00 UTC	3	$26	20	10	+10	Up	-$2	02-09 23:13
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-12 05:00 UTC	3	$25	20	10	+10	Down	-$4	02-12 05:12
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-27 01:15 UTC	4	$24	13	12	+0	Up	+$1	02-27 01:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-27 13:35 UTC	4	$24	13	12	+0	Down	+$1	02-27 13:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-02 06:20 UTC	4	$24	12	12	+0	Down	+$0	03-02 06:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-04 01:05 UTC	4	$24	12	12	+0	Down	+$0	03-04 01:10
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-27 02:10 UTC	4	$24	12	12	+0	Down	+$0	02-27 02:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-27 17:35 UTC	4	$24	12	12	+0	Up	+$0	02-27 17:38
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-02 08:15 UTC	4	$24	12	12	+0	Down	+$0	03-02 08:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-01 01:50 UTC	4	$24	12	12	+0	Up	+$0	03-01 01:54
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-27 09:10 UTC	4	$24	12	12	+0	Down	+$0	02-27 09:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-03 00:35 UTC	4	$24	12	12	+0	Up	+$0	03-03 00:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-01 01:35 UTC	4	$24	12	12	+0	Up	+$0	03-01 01:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-03 15:45 UTC	4	$24	12	12	+0	Up	+$0	03-03 15:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-01 01:15 UTC	4	$24	12	12	+0	Down	+$0	03-01 01:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-03 13:15 UTC	4	$24	12	12	+0	Up	+$0	03-03 13:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-02 16:30 UTC	4	$24	12	12	+0	Down	+$0	03-02 16:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-02 00:40 UTC	4	$24	24	0	+24	Up	+$1	03-02 00:43
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-20 15:00 UTC	4	$23	14	14	+0	Down	-$4	02-20 15:11
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-10 15:30 UTC	3	$22	15	10	+5	Up	-$2	02-10 15:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-28 09:25 UTC	4	$22	12	12	+0	Down	-$1	02-28 09:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-28 06:20 UTC	4	$22	12	12	+0	Up	-$1	02-28 06:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-27 17:20 UTC	4	$22	12	12	+0	Down	-$1	02-27 17:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-03 13:30 UTC	4	$22	12	12	+0	Down	-$1	03-03 13:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-03 13:45 UTC	4	$22	12	12	+0	Down	-$2	03-03 13:49
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-13 20:45 UTC	2	$21	11	11	+0	Down	+$0	02-13 21:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-02 15:20 UTC	4	$21	12	12	+0	Up	-$2	03-02 15:24

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 05:24:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0x30450d…
10-26 19:23:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Down	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x1aaaa1…
10-25 17:24:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	97¢	$1	0x5e04b7…
10-24 17:23:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0xdea1c5…
10-23 23:23:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Up	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x80456c…
10-22 19:24:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0x3067f4…
10-18 01:18:14	Udinese Calcio vs. US Lecce: O/U 6.5	Under	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xf2b243…
10-16 19:36:11	wta andrees stefani 2026 10 16	Bianca Andreescu	BUY	2	90¢	$1	0x35a195…
10-12 16:34:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Down	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x7fda69…
10-12 16:28:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x325723…
10-12 07:38:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Up	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0xe6a99f…
10-12 07:23:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Down	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x886ce1…
10-12 07:04:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0xd6623b…
10-12 06:38:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0x1dd6c7…
10-12 05:53:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xf702fa…
10-12 05:38:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Up	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xc53a22…
10-12 05:18:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0x988516…
10-12 05:08:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Down	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x1c8b8b…
10-12 04:58:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xcb30eb…
10-12 04:53:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0xc5101a…
10-12 04:48:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Up	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xdc90ae…
10-12 04:19:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xad7d84…
10-12 03:38:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Down	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x8bf2b4…
10-12 03:23:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0xb1c7ef…
10-12 03:18:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0xe85b45…
10-12 03:08:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Down	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0x1698d1…
10-12 02:59:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0xbb183e…
10-12 02:49:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0xb15153…
10-12 02:38:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0xff61b8…
10-12 02:28:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0x359919…
10-12 02:13:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x36985f…
10-12 01:53:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Down	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0xc50113…
10-12 01:43:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x030be9…
10-12 01:08:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Down	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xb1f8de…
10-12 01:03:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Up	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0xb0dc26…
10-12 00:43:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xdb9469…
10-12 00:18:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0xb9b7d3…
10-12 00:13:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x17d802…
10-11 23:53:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xee091b…
10-11 23:49:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x637528…
10-11 23:43:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x43e5f2…
10-11 23:14:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Down	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0xfa5f6f…
10-11 22:34:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x86e5a9…
10-11 22:18:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0x96fbf7…
10-11 22:03:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET	Up	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0xebf064…
10-11 21:43:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x96d0b4…
10-11 21:33:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xcc91d5…
10-11 21:28:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x2841cd…
10-11 20:34:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x05eb81…
10-11 20:18:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xf4a484…
10-11 19:48:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x612f4c…
10-11 19:13:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x0e219b…
10-11 19:03:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Up	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x1434d1…
10-11 18:58:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xbd49cb…
10-11 18:54:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x5f0df4…
10-11 18:39:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Down	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x9cc491…
10-11 18:33:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0x0f9b9a…
10-11 18:18:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xfbc795…
10-11 17:58:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x3cdda2…
10-11 16:48:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0xa26533…
10-11 16:38:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Up	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x21d536…
10-11 16:18:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x57fff1…
10-11 16:13:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x4a08d3…
10-11 16:09:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Down	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x381aef…
10-11 15:38:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Up	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x25ad85…
10-11 15:24:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xe23a38…
10-11 15:13:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x105709…
10-11 14:19:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0x5916c4…
10-11 13:48:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-11 13:45 UTC	Down	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x2fef41…
10-11 13:38:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Up	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xc5a272…
10-11 13:29:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xe769f8…
10-11 13:13:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-11 13:10 UTC	Up	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x1b869f…
10-11 13:03:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-11 13:00 UTC	Down	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0xead876…
10-11 12:48:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Down	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0x1a3da7…
10-11 12:38:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Up	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x42af00…
10-11 12:28:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0xd5f10e…
10-11 12:13:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x075cb7…
10-11 11:53:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x7fd5ee…
10-11 11:29:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0x554a77…
10-11 11:03:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x9c87d4…
10-11 10:48:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Up	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0x932e4e…
10-11 10:29:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xa8b802…
10-11 10:18:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0xb58550…
10-11 09:29:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xd20555…
10-11 08:58:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xdc7371…
10-11 08:43:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0x2d1d04…
10-11 07:59:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0xeda8ae…
10-11 07:34:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Down	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x837afb…
10-11 07:18:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x0547b2…
10-11 05:54:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0xde828f…
10-11 05:08:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Down	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0x13fabb…
10-11 04:04:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x878728…
10-11 03:58:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x4888b1…
10-11 03:23:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Down	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xf413de…
10-11 02:23:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xcd39ae…
10-11 02:19:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET	Down	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xbdbda9…
10-11 01:48:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x98a3a0…
10-11 00:58:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0xea070d…
10-10 23:53:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x22c316…
10-10 23:44:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xe2975e…