Occasional-Nail — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$18

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

99.3%

Resolved

299

Trades

299

lifetime

Volume

$3.71K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-08

last 11-07 12:04

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 235 days

Categories

Other

98% 100% +$5

Politics

2% 80% -$24

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

68 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C or below on May 15?	1	$25	25	+25	No	+$0	05-15 03:58
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$25	25	+25	No	-$25	05-15 05:53
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on May 14?	1	$25	25	+25	No	+$0	05-14 06:57
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on May 13?	1	$25	25	+25	No	+$0	05-13 04:37
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on May 12?	1	$25	25	+25	Yes	+$0	05-12 09:58
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May 11?	1	$25	25	+25	Yes	+$0	05-12 03:44
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on May 11?	1	$25	25	+25	No	+$0	05-11 16:48
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or higher on May 11?	1	$25	25	+25	No	+$0	05-11 06:08
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C or higher on May 10?	1	$25	25	+25	No	+$0	05-10 04:29
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C or higher on May 9?	1	$25	25	+25	No	+$0	05-09 05:17
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on May 8?	1	$25	25	+25	No	+$0	05-08 09:15
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C or below on May 8?	1	$25	25	+25	No	+$0	05-08 05:20
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 29°C on May 8?	1	$24	25	+25	No	+$0	05-08 01:29
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on May 7?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-07 10:16
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 6?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-07 01:30
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on May 6?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-06 12:13
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 5?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-06 04:06
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on May 5?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-05 11:16
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on May 4?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-05 02:28
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on May 4?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-04 09:22
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on May 4?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-04 01:29
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 3?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-03 12:24
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on May 3?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-03 01:31
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 39°C on May 2?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$0	05-02 08:14
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on May 1?	1	$24	24	+24	Yes	+$0	05-02 02:58
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	1	$24	24	+24	No	+$1	04-12 02:16
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	1	$23	24	+24	No	+$0	04-08 10:11
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 7th 659	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	04-07 06:50
highest temperature in shenzhen on april 6 2026 30c	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	04-06 09:35
highest temperature in beijing on april 5 2026 22c	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	04-05 08:46

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-07 12:04:19	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 0°C on November 7?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x5deac7…
11-06 09:22:00	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on November 6?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x63f51a…
11-04 04:27:42	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 2°C on November 4?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x333d3a…
11-03 17:21:10	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on November 3?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x418e6b…
11-02 06:49:04	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on November 2?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xcf46cc…
10-31 15:58:46	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on October 31?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xae694d…
10-30 14:59:13	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x82ccd2…
10-29 17:55:52	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x3cbace…
10-29 09:31:50	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 18°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xdfde54…
10-28 08:01:14	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on October 28?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa680c3…
10-27 10:08:21	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc508bd…
10-26 09:45:39	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on October 26?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x7ad18e…
10-24 11:52:21	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on October 24?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xec6dd1…
10-22 10:46:26	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on October 22?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe91e86…
10-20 08:12:28	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 15°C on October 20?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc0b954…
10-19 09:31:06	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on October 19?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x70afef…
10-18 10:19:02	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on October 18?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa9622b…
10-17 15:47:38	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on October 17?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x9cb3b7…
10-16 14:08:43	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on October 16?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf8e782…
10-15 14:06:05	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on October 15?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x449588…
10-14 10:19:04	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on October 14?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa4c24d…
10-13 10:31:56	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 41°C or higher on October 13?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf70bcd…
10-12 10:52:38	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on October 12?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x751ce9…
10-11 09:17:48	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on October 11?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc0cea6…
10-08 12:33:33	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on October 8?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd3bf62…
10-07 15:45:41	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on October 7?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x8a5779…
10-06 15:10:02	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on October 6?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x766a91…
10-05 08:08:08	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on October 5?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xdbf05b…
10-03 09:19:36	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on October 3?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x77d749…
10-02 14:01:12	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on October 2?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x1e967e…
10-01 09:28:45	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on October 1?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x614992…
09-30 14:22:45	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on September 30?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xfcb312…
09-30 03:30:56	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on September 30?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd74768…
09-28 10:08:18	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on September 28?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xccc1e7…
09-27 09:09:47	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on September 27?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x19e4bf…
09-25 16:54:14	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on September 25?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x6382e5…
09-24 09:10:00	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on September 24?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x47cb41…
09-23 10:22:11	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on September 23?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x0dc3fc…
09-22 08:45:46	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on September 22?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x3d9b3e…
09-21 09:50:06	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on September 21?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x8d9ac0…
09-20 05:58:39	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on September 20?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xab946c…
09-19 09:11:54	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on September 19?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x33c53f…
09-18 07:52:37	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on September 18?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x76ae34…
09-17 04:15:39	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 20°C or below on September 17?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xedb92a…
09-16 08:59:16	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on September 16?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x56b724…
09-15 10:25:39	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on September 15?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe1f6bd…
09-14 09:21:07	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on September 14?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x3b25b3…
09-13 03:38:33	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on September 13?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x5b843c…
09-11 09:26:55	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on September 11?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x9c887f…
09-10 09:13:21	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on September 10?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x45c89a…
09-09 02:42:30	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 27°C on September 9?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x7a5a04…
09-08 06:20:36	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on September 8?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd6e936…
09-07 08:49:09	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C or below on September 7?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa5eba9…
09-06 11:44:34	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on September 6?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x1747c3…
09-05 06:14:15	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on September 5?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x16b9f5…
09-04 01:03:55	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on September 3?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x1890bb…
09-02 07:58:49	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on September 2?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc4c609…
08-30 14:12:43	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on August 30?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa7aaf8…
08-29 09:47:01	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on August 29?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x8f1ac6…
08-28 09:47:40	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 28?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x19a787…
08-27 09:13:21	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on August 27?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xb98bf5…
08-26 08:49:24	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on August 26?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x3dd6c5…
08-25 09:45:46	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on August 25?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x8fe8a9…
08-24 15:06:57	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on August 24?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x7a556d…
08-24 01:10:09	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on August 23?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x802b82…
08-22 09:08:46	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on August 22?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xb0a861…
08-21 08:33:24	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 35°C on August 21?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc1cc87…
08-20 09:16:19	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on August 20?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x6c994e…
08-18 08:34:09	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on August 18?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x64f617…
08-17 08:33:04	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on August 17?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x440c44…
08-16 14:27:10	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on August 16?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x585b74…
08-15 16:08:57	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on August 15?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x8793ea…
08-14 07:00:52	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on August 14?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x9d4054…
08-13 09:08:24	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on August 13?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x074b2b…
08-12 09:23:21	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on August 12?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc75ddf…
08-11 07:05:34	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 34°C on August 11?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x9bb174…
08-10 08:22:34	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 33°C on August 10?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x657521…
08-09 07:10:04	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on August 9?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xebdd4e…
08-08 07:51:15	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on August 8?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xd1284f…
08-07 08:25:22	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on August 7?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x34c90d…
08-06 08:10:14	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 36°C on August 6?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x37e636…
08-05 08:06:59	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on August 5?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa17eb9…
08-04 08:31:24	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on August 4?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x659b95…
08-03 07:47:39	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C or higher on August 3?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x655672…
08-02 06:37:29	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on August 2?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x5a7ed9…
08-01 07:18:33	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 40°C on August 1?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x2599c0…
07-31 14:15:47	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 42°C on July 31?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf0231b…
07-30 07:27:00	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on July 30?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x278043…
07-29 07:17:47	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 33°C on July 29?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x46ae47…
07-28 07:16:25	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on July 28?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x4f04ee…
07-27 09:42:00	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 27?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa24158…
07-26 08:12:46	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 26?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x830a09…
07-25 09:14:12	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on July 25?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xca9a7a…
07-24 13:40:33	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on July 24?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc0258e…
07-23 08:30:49	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on July 23?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x0940ca…
07-22 02:13:34	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 98-99°F on July 21?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xaece80…
07-21 09:23:52	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on July 21?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa92d77…
07-21 00:26:46	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on July 20?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x98624f…
07-20 08:36:42	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on July 20?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xda8996…
07-18 23:30:45	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 18?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x76eca6…