Probable-Hostess — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$58

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

78.1%

Resolved

342

Trades

494

lifetime

Volume

$1.85K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-03

last 08-19 17:07

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 39 days

Categories

Crypto

56% 78% -$44

Other

25% 55% -$21

Politics

19% 74% +$7

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

8 active days in 12wk • peak 45 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
jd vance diplomatic meeting with iran by april 10	5	$58	65	65	+0	No	+$18	04-10 06:37
will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	5	$57	58	21	+36	Yes	+$9	04-10 06:42
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	3	$52	28	28	+0	No	+$2	05-29 14:44
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	3	$40	23	23	+0	No	+$0	05-24 21:09
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on August 17?	2	$38	27	27	+0	Yes	+$8	08-17 12:44
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on August 19?	3	$33	33	33	+0	No	-$7	08-19 11:16
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	2	$32	17	17	+0	Yes	+$2	05-24 06:21
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on August 18?	2	$30	24	24	+0	Yes	+$10	08-18 13:15
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on August 19?	2	$29	35	35	+0	No	-$11	08-19 12:22
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C or below on August 15?	2	$27	17	17	+0	Yes	+$7	08-15 22:30
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C or higher on August 19?	2	$26	14	14	+0	Yes	+$2	08-19 13:20
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 19?	2	$23	14	14	+0	Yes	+$3	08-19 14:39
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on August 16?	2	$23	13	13	+0	Yes	+$3	08-16 17:38
cze1 fhk bop 2026 04 05 fhk	2	$20	10	10	+0	Yes	+$0	04-05 13:06
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	2	$20	26	26	+0	No	-$20	06-01 04:22
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on August 17?	2	$18	20	20	+0	No	-$2	08-17 09:45
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	3	$16	15	6	+9	Down	-$5	05-10 11:50
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 19?	1	$15	21	0	+21	No	-$15	08-19 14:40
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	2	$14	10	10	+0	Yes	$0	04-10 06:40
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	3	$14	8	8	+0	Yes	+$2	05-24 06:21
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-07 14:15 UTC	2	$14	10	10	+0	Down	+$4	04-07 14:18
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on August 14?	2	$12	8	8	+0	Yes	+$2	08-14 14:24
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-05 13:40 UTC	2	$11	6	6	+0	Down	+$1	04-05 13:45
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-06 15:00 UTC	2	$11	6	6	+0	Down	+$1	04-06 15:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-06 15:10 UTC	2	$11	6	6	+0	Up	+$1	04-06 15:14
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-08-14?	2	$11	6	6	+0	Yes	+$1	08-14 21:16
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?	2	$10	5	5	+0	No	+$0	06-01 04:20
atp smith gill 2026 08 10	2	$10	6	6	+0	Felix Gill	+$0	08-13 00:27
Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31?	2	$10	32	32	+0	Yes	-$10	05-23 08:31
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-03 10:30 UTC	2	$10	5	5	+0	Down	+$0	04-03 10:35

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-19 17:07:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-19 17:05 UTC	Up	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x86eefb…
08-19 17:07:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-19 17:05 UTC	Up	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x9f73a6…
08-19 14:40:25	Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on August 19?	Yes	BUY	21	73¢	$15	0xc0a03d…
08-19 14:39:45	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 19?	Yes	SELL	14	92¢	$13	0x0a9c81…
08-19 13:21:01	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 19?	Yes	BUY	14	71¢	$10	0x942c00…
08-19 13:20:04	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C or higher on August 19?	Yes	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0xe136b2…
08-19 12:23:28	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C or higher on August 19?	Yes	BUY	14	83¢	$12	0xc9cf2f…
08-19 12:22:39	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on August 19?	Yes	SELL	35	25¢	$9	0x48c81d…
08-19 11:17:18	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on August 19?	Yes	BUY	35	57¢	$20	0xd9d38c…
08-19 11:16:33	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on August 19?	Yes	SELL	33	38¢	$13	0x19a446…
08-19 08:51:52	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on August 19?	Yes	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0x780e91…
08-19 08:37:04	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on August 19?	Yes	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0x10ee4c…
08-19 08:04:39	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on August 19?	Yes	SELL	15	33¢	$5	0x4f7ef3…
08-19 07:11:46	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on August 19?	Yes	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0xa1ed76…
08-19 06:49:22	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on August 19?	Yes	SELL	19	23¢	$4	0x288b6d…
08-19 06:37:37	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on August 19?	Yes	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0xac0f89…
08-18 20:14:46	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on August 18?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xc6388b…
08-18 16:18:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-18 16:15 UTC	Down	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xa693a8…
08-18 16:17:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-18 16:15 UTC	Down	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x698127…
08-18 13:15:10	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on August 18?	Yes	SELL	24	86¢	$20	0x1adee5…
08-18 13:14:18	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on August 18?	Yes	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x9ec761…
08-18 05:11:52	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on August 18?	Yes	BUY	24	42¢	$10	0x5ff75d…
08-17 12:44:37	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on August 17?	Yes	SELL	27	85¢	$23	0x52826b…
08-17 09:46:40	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on August 17?	Yes	BUY	27	55¢	$15	0xd912fc…
08-17 09:45:42	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on August 17?	Yes	SELL	20	41¢	$8	0x7a3ef1…
08-17 08:44:58	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on August 17?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x4189ab…
08-17 08:41:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 08:40 UTC	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xe803d1…
08-17 08:29:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 08:25 UTC	Down	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x02dc2d…
08-17 08:28:30	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 08:25 UTC	Down	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x5e7719…
08-17 08:01:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 08:00 UTC	Up	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x25658d…
08-17 07:56:07	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 07:55 UTC	Down	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x366487…
08-17 07:54:18	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 07:50 UTC	Down	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x4002a5…
08-17 07:52:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 07:50 UTC	Up	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x782687…
08-17 07:52:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 07:50 UTC	Up	SELL	2	73¢	$2	0x831e5d…
08-17 07:50:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 07:50 UTC	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x8df78d…
08-17 07:48:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 07:45 UTC	Up	SELL	1	23¢	$0	0xd08a3b…
08-17 07:47:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 07:45 UTC	Up	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x630cfe…
08-17 07:46:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 07:45 UTC	Up	SELL	1	74¢	$1	0x98197f…
08-17 07:46:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 07:45 UTC	Up	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xc02425…
08-17 07:43:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 07:40 UTC	Down	SELL	3	89¢	$2	0x951cba…
08-17 07:43:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 07:40 UTC	Down	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0xb491e5…
08-17 07:43:24	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 07:40 UTC	Down	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x087d4e…
08-17 07:43:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 07:40 UTC	Down	SELL	1	84¢	$1	0xac3757…
08-17 07:42:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 07:40 UTC	Down	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0xabf18b…
08-17 07:30:24	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 07:30 UTC	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x42c8e2…
08-17 07:29:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 07:25 UTC	Up	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0x28e4a1…
08-17 07:25:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 07:25 UTC	Up	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0xba4d22…
08-17 07:24:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 07:20 UTC	Up	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x341d9f…
08-17 07:22:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 07:20 UTC	Up	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x1fce57…
08-17 07:22:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 07:20 UTC	Up	SELL	2	73¢	$1	0x8dd67c…
08-17 07:20:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 07:20 UTC	Up	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xbba544…
08-17 07:06:58	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 07:05 UTC	Down	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x3e8295…
08-17 06:58:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 06:55 UTC	Up	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0xaeaac7…
08-17 06:58:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 06:55 UTC	Up	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xc4b88b…
08-17 06:48:24	BNB Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 06:45 UTC	Up	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xdb2a1b…
08-17 06:47:28	BNB Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 06:45 UTC	Up	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x14c136…
08-17 06:44:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 06:40 UTC	Up	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x73507c…
08-17 06:44:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 06:40 UTC	Up	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0xafb38a…
08-17 06:43:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 06:40 UTC	Up	SELL	2	65¢	$1	0xff6161…
08-17 06:42:09	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 06:40 UTC	Up	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x8ef5d0…
08-17 06:41:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 06:40 UTC	Up	SELL	2	58¢	$1	0xb9d69d…
08-17 06:41:09	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 06:40 UTC	Up	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x360ffd…
08-17 06:37:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 06:35 UTC	Up	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xade284…
08-17 06:37:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 06:35 UTC	Up	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x55ed24…
08-17 04:38:12	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 04:35 UTC	Down	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xb317ab…
08-17 04:31:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 04:30 UTC	Down	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0xb0dc8d…
08-17 04:28:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-17 04:25 UTC	Down	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0xfd3b0e…
08-16 20:17:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 20:15 UTC	Down	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x5767d7…
08-16 17:38:43	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on August 16?	Yes	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0xd8ce72…
08-16 14:01:42	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	13	79¢	$10	0x45ba68…
08-16 06:07:58	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on August 17?	Yes	SELL	11	38¢	$4	0xeb5aac…
08-16 00:42:43	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on August 17?	Yes	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0x84c337…
08-16 00:14:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 00:10 UTC	Up	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0xa05842…
08-16 00:14:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-16 00:10 UTC	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x1c0204…
08-15 22:30:45	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C or below on August 15?	Yes	SELL	17	100¢	$17	0x3d4f06…
08-15 15:29:13	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on August 15?	Yes	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x34ac9e…
08-15 12:49:40	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C or below on August 15?	Yes	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0xd32abf…
08-15 12:43:55	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on August 15?	Yes	SELL	14	12¢	$2	0x9ce335…
08-15 10:05:49	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on August 15?	Yes	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0x8ad8c5…
08-15 10:01:12	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-15 10:00 UTC	Up	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x118869…
08-15 07:51:06	atp matsuok sultano 2026 08 15	Khumoun Sultanov	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x673017…
08-15 07:42:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-15 07:40 UTC	Down	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x506e1d…
08-15 07:35:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-15 07:30 UTC	Down	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x774751…
08-15 07:33:10	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-15 07:30 UTC	Down	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xe63773…
08-15 07:22:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-15 07:20 UTC	Down	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x852e15…
08-15 07:03:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-15 07:00 UTC	Up	SELL	1	48¢	$1	0x75e172…
08-15 07:02:15	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-15 07:00 UTC	Up	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xcc01b4…
08-15 06:50:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-15 06:45 UTC	Up	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x64f3e2…
08-15 06:48:24	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-15 06:45 UTC	Up	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xceb7e4…
08-14 21:16:39	Will Sporting CP win on 2026-08-14?	Yes	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x34809d…
08-14 21:05:21	Will Sporting CP win on 2026-08-14?	Yes	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0x12c808…
08-14 20:28:36	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 20:25 UTC	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xb16f9a…
08-14 14:24:52	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on August 14?	Yes	SELL	8	92¢	$7	0x9e8ac3…
08-14 14:17:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 14:15 UTC	Up	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x0d2533…
08-14 12:47:58	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 12:45 UTC	Down	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0xa19701…
08-14 12:33:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 12:30 UTC	Up	SELL	1	70¢	$1	0x38c73b…
08-14 12:33:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 12:30 UTC	Up	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0x10279c…
08-14 12:13:58	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 12:10 UTC	Down	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xeec2de…
08-14 12:06:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-14 12:05 UTC	Down	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xd9dce8…
08-14 08:54:52	itf simion wobker 2026 08 14	Ida Wobker	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0x5ca627…