Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$32

Unrealized P&L

-$26

Hit rate

62.5%

Resolved

281

Trades

500

lifetime

Volume

$4.35K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$181

12 positions

First seen

2026-07-25

last 11-01 06:24

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 81 days

Categories

Other

69% 36% +$32

Politics

15% 42% -$118

Tech

14% 52% +$78

Crypto

2% 30% -$15

Pop-Culture

0% 0% -$9

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

64 active days in 12wk • peak 24 trades/day

Open positions (12) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	+74	$41	99¢	$73	+$33	10-02 16:55
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30?	No	+52	$22	64¢	$34	+$12	10-25 16:37
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by December 31, 2026?	No	+41	$16	70¢	$29	+$13	10-22 22:43
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	No	+55	$23	20¢	$11	-$12	10-04 22:14
Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027?	Yes	+23	$3	38¢	$9	+$6	09-11 02:27
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	+38	$7	21¢	$8	+$0	10-17 19:25
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31?	No	+12	$7	68¢	$8	+$1	10-31 06:59
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt?	No	+20	$12	26¢	$5	-$7	08-22 11:49
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?	No	+19	$9	20¢	$4	-$5	09-10 16:03
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH?	Yes	+58	$28	2¢	$1	-$27	10-23 00:14
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	No	+40	$7	1¢	$0	-$7	10-04 19:08
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 150m and 160m by October 31?	No	+60	$33	0¢	$0	-$33	10-03 21:44

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in September 2026?	4	$133	80	80	+0	Yes	+$27	10-02 21:00
Will the Danube River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?	2	$127	80	80	+0	No	+$30	10-25 15:06
Will "Digger" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	8	$125	75	75	+0	No	+$24	10-03 18:09
Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?	4	$119	92	92	+0	No	-$1	09-23 16:00
Will Russia enter Stavky by September 30?	4	$108	64	64	+0	No	+$19	09-26 05:20
Will GitHub's longest critical incident in September 2026 be between 6 and 12 hours?	4	$83	50	50	+0	No	+$17	10-01 07:38
Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 22m?	2	$77	56	56	+0	No	+$35	09-27 14:33
Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?	2	$70	102	0	+102	No	-$70	09-22 16:36
Trump renames AI by September 30?	4	$69	100	0	+100	Yes	-$69	09-22 23:00
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	2	$69	44	44	+0	No	+$20	09-30 23:56
us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454 592 696	2	$67	100	0	+100	No	+$33	09-24 07:42
russia ukraine peace talks by october 15 2026	4	$65	94	0	+94	No	+$29	09-28 07:59
Will The Weeknd be featured on GTA VI: The Album?	1	$60	91	0	+91	open	—	10-31 06:54
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	3	$59	39	39	+0	Yes	+$19	09-16 21:29
Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026?	1	$56	86	0	+86	Yes	-$56	10-02 00:16
Will Rick Devens win Big Brother season 28?	1	$54	84	0	+84	Yes	-$54	09-22 13:53
Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	5	$52	39	39	+0	No	+$25	10-25 21:44
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?	1	$51	80	0	+80	Yes	-$51	10-04 08:24
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 40 and 45 million views in week 1?	3	$51	36	36	+0	No	+$21	09-19 04:07
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	1	$50	83	0	+83	Yes	+$33	10-17 11:00
Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by October 31?	1	$48	83	0	+83	No	+$35	10-04 22:45
will the uss george washington depart centcom by november 15 2026	1	$47	80	0	+80	open	—	10-05 00:42
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September?	1	$43	73	0	+73	Yes	-$43	09-24 08:38
Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by September 30, 2026?	1	$42	62	0	+62	No	+$20	09-17 13:29
Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 30, 2026?	1	$42	76	0	+76	Yes	-$42	10-22 21:43
Will Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?	3	$41	31	31	+0	No	+$20	09-27 13:57
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on August 17?	3	$41	24	24	+0	No	+$7	08-17 21:51
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	1	$41	74	0	+74	open	—	10-02 16:55
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21?	1	$41	61	0	+61	No	+$20	09-12 04:59
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on August 21?	2	$40	23	23	+0	No	+$6	08-21 19:49

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-01 06:24:33	Will Hyperliquid reach $110 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	42	27¢	$11	0x86cc74…
11-01 05:12:46	Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.9% and 1.0% over the 12 month period ending in October 2026?	Yes	BUY	54	37¢	$20	0x66f727…
10-31 06:59:21	Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31?	No	BUY	12	57¢	$7	0x86ed4f…
10-31 06:54:19	Will The Weeknd be featured on GTA VI: The Album?	No	BUY	91	66¢	$60	0xe46930…
10-29 17:34:35	Will Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?	Yes	BUY	54	37¢	$20	0x7f1769…
10-29 12:15:49	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	45	31¢	$14	0x46d4b6…
10-25 21:44:18	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	No	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0xa6ec50…
10-25 21:44:18	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	No	SELL	27	99¢	$27	0x30bbee…
10-25 16:37:30	Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30?	No	BUY	41	42¢	$17	0x4e3edf…
10-25 16:33:36	Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30?	No	BUY	11	42¢	$5	0xabb8f8…
10-25 15:06:53	Will the Danube River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	80	98¢	$78	0x1a624d…
10-25 09:14:03	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	No	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x9635f1…
10-25 08:38:30	Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $20M?	No	BUY	52	31¢	$16	0x7d30bf…
10-24 12:55:39	Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $2.00T and $2.25T?	Yes	BUY	30	6¢	$2	0x38da75…
10-23 20:40:39	Will there be exactly 3 North Korea tests in October 2026?	No	BUY	45	31¢	$14	0xb050b9…
10-23 00:14:24	Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH?	Yes	BUY	58	48¢	$28	0x2617cd…
10-22 22:43:18	Total Internet Blackout in Iran by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	41	39¢	$16	0x04b2c8…
10-22 21:43:53	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	76	55¢	$42	0x58c2a7…
10-22 15:10:35	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	41	18¢	$7	0xd4f8ba…
10-22 15:10:35	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	9	45¢	$4	0xcd6b09…
10-21 13:13:12	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	No	BUY	15	35¢	$5	0x6e5f50…
10-21 10:15:56	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	No	BUY	24	35¢	$8	0x5b4946…
10-21 10:06:56	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	49	30¢	$15	0x34469a…
10-17 19:25:53	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	38	20¢	$7	0x570044…
10-17 13:11:38	Will "Street Fighter" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 25m and 30m?	Yes	BUY	49	32¢	$16	0x9b984e…
10-17 11:00:18	Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	83	60¢	$50	0x7d2507…
10-06 12:45:51	Will at least 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x0e8f35…
10-06 08:00:19	Will there be exactly 1 North Korea test in October 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	12¢	$0	0xbe4fe4…
10-06 08:00:19	Will there be exactly 1 North Korea test in October 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	12¢	$1	0x7e337e…
10-06 07:45:52	Will there be exactly 1 North Korea test in October 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	12¢	$2	0x77e23b…
10-05 21:12:19	Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x837883…
10-05 20:00:43	Will Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.8% and 1.1%?	Yes	BUY	40	39¢	$16	0x5f1de3…
10-05 14:12:53	Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be at least 1.3%?	No	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0x1d300e…
10-05 14:12:49	Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be at least 1.3%?	No	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0x6ffb32…
10-05 14:12:49	Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be at least 1.3%?	No	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0x61217a…
10-05 14:12:47	Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be at least 1.3%?	No	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0x6eddbe…
10-05 10:24:16	Will there be exactly 1 North Korea test in October 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	12¢	$1	0x0c1e5a…
10-05 00:42:19	will the uss george washington depart centcom by november 15 2026	No	BUY	80	59¢	$47	0x4d59a9…
10-04 22:45:46	Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by October 31?	No	BUY	83	58¢	$48	0x52a812…
10-04 22:42:40	Will Iran target an Arab country by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	35	28¢	$10	0x25e236…
10-04 22:42:02	Will Iran target an Arab country by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xf608c0…
10-04 22:15:34	spain snap election called by october 31	No	BUY	16	23¢	$4	0xc4c677…
10-04 22:15:34	spain snap election called by october 31	No	BUY	17	23¢	$4	0x70392e…
10-04 22:14:17	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	55	41¢	$23	0x88fb49…
10-04 19:08:26	Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	30	18¢	$5	0xa17f86…
10-04 19:07:53	Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	10	18¢	$2	0x7a139f…
10-04 18:54:10	Will the Houthis successfully target shipping by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x5955a4…
10-04 08:24:43	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?	No	BUY	80	64¢	$51	0x1c7bc0…
10-04 01:55:05	Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $5.50 on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	22¢	$9	0xd14e9c…
10-04 00:49:10	will donald trump publicly insult abdul el sayed by october 31 2026	No	BUY	33	6¢	$2	0xaf1515…
10-04 00:03:05	Will OpenAI not announce that it has resumed training by October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	48	31¢	$15	0xb5796f…
10-03 21:44:53	Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 150m and 160m by October 31?	No	BUY	60	55¢	$33	0x57520b…
10-03 20:00:49	Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher?	No	BUY	40	28¢	$11	0x1f26dd…
10-03 18:09:05	Will "Digger" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	SELL	41	99¢	$41	0x0cfdc7…
10-03 18:00:33	Will "Digger" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xb5cdd1…
10-03 14:58:36	Will "Digger" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	SELL	21	99¢	$21	0xcbbf6e…
10-02 21:00:03	Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in September 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x311dbd…
10-02 21:00:00	Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in September 2026?	Yes	SELL	66	100¢	$66	0xcda67b…
10-02 19:13:20	Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1?	Yes	BUY	40	18¢	$7	0xe16657…
10-02 16:55:11	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	74	55¢	$41	0xfd2889…
10-02 15:12:09	Will ISM Services PMI be between 56.0 and 56.9 in September?	Yes	BUY	1	12¢	$0	0xb96988…
10-02 11:33:29	Will USD be at least 2.8M Iranian rials on October 31?	No	BUY	48	28¢	$13	0x0e1f19…
10-02 06:09:11	Meta's Watermelon released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	44	21¢	$9	0xbd8ce9…
10-02 00:16:57	Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026?	No	BUY	86	65¢	$56	0xe6e142…
10-01 23:05:18	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	35	7¢	$2	0x5f4851…
10-01 20:02:47	Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in September?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x6e72f7…
10-01 19:56:47	Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in September?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x6b5fe6…
10-01 19:50:35	Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in September?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x9c3175…
10-01 19:45:47	Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in September?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x526e43…
10-01 18:56:09	Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	52	46¢	$24	0xba55dd…
10-01 17:40:00	Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.50 and $2.75 on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	25¢	$11	0x6472f3…
10-01 15:57:51	Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?	No	BUY	45	29¢	$13	0x849144…
10-01 14:19:12	Trump meets with Putin by November 30?	No	BUY	45	27¢	$12	0x124299…
10-01 13:56:20	Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in September?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x007a08…
10-01 13:47:20	Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in September?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x96a0a5…
10-01 12:39:56	Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 30 and 35 million views in week 1?	Yes	BUY	10	47¢	$5	0x8ac786…
10-01 07:38:38	Will GitHub's longest critical incident in September 2026 be between 6 and 12 hours?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0xec67e6…
10-01 07:35:27	Will GitHub's longest critical incident in September 2026 be between 6 and 12 hours?	No	SELL	35	100¢	$35	0x6d571d…
10-01 03:11:56	Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.9% and 1.0% over the 12 month period ending in September 2026?	Yes	BUY	52	41¢	$21	0x96d6d4…
09-30 23:56:30	Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	44	100¢	$44	0xc79346…
09-30 22:55:18	Will PPI YoY be 5.5% in September?	Yes	BUY	66	2¢	$1	0x38b7ca…
09-30 20:37:50	Will "Digger" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x5802cb…
09-28 21:02:29	Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	38	20¢	$8	0x8cd340…
09-28 18:25:08	Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xbc48b0…
09-28 07:59:44	russia ukraine peace talks by october 15 2026	No	BUY	30	69¢	$21	0x119763…
09-27 22:44:33	Will Xiaomi be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	2	31¢	$1	0x43cc3c…
09-27 22:44:33	Will Xiaomi be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	45	31¢	$14	0x0e75c2…
09-27 20:01:56	Will the Danube River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	80	61¢	$49	0xcf5a70…
09-27 18:26:53	Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in September?	Yes	BUY	38	21¢	$8	0x6bf27c…
09-27 14:33:36	Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 22m?	No	SELL	56	100¢	$56	0x9a12cd…
09-27 13:57:29	Will Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?	No	SELL	31	100¢	$31	0x4823de…
09-27 10:25:36	Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in September 2026?	Yes	BUY	68	66¢	$45	0x4f4a6f…
09-27 09:55:00	Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in September 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	66¢	$8	0xa1d359…
09-27 05:40:03	Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.0% and 4.3%?	Yes	BUY	41	27¢	$11	0x7e5df4…
09-26 05:20:47	Will Russia enter Stavky by September 30?	No	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x82048c…
09-25 23:47:18	Will Russia enter Stavky by September 30?	No	SELL	14	98¢	$14	0x0eba0d…
09-25 08:04:51	Will Russia enter Stavky by September 30?	No	SELL	50	98¢	$49	0x0f8cd9…
09-24 18:04:32	Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be between $1,153,000 and $1,169,000 on September 30?	Yes	BUY	52	41¢	$21	0x57c896…
09-24 08:38:09	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September?	No	BUY	73	59¢	$43	0x371957…
09-24 07:42:24	us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 895 372 622 413 171 454 592 696	No	BUY	91	67¢	$61	0x643968…