Tense-Contingency — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$691

Unrealized P&L

-$4

Hit rate

38.9%

Resolved

264

Trades

1,157

lifetime

Volume

$29.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$26

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-04

last 07-12 00:48

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 126 days

Categories

Other

72% 38% -$546

Politics

21% 43% +$37

Crypto

3% 20% -$28

Tech

3% 43% -$9

Pop-Culture

1% 0% -$2

Sports

1% 0% -$142

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-12).

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Ebola pandemic in 2026?	Yes		+40	$4	3¢	$1	-$3	05-17 15:26
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes		+100	$2	1¢	$1	-$1	04-28 13:09

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
cbb akron txtech 2026 03 20	2	$1.5K	1,000	1,000	+0	Texas Tech Red Raiders	-$10	03-20 11:43
cbb ucf ucla 2026 03 20	2	$1.3K	1,000	1,000	+0	UCLA Bruins	-$10	03-20 11:43
cbb iowa clmsn 2026 03 20	2	$1.1K	1,000	1,000	+0	Iowa Hawkeyes	-$10	03-20 11:43
elon musk of tweets january 2 january 9 480 499	7	$853	560	980	-420	No	-$53	01-08 15:43
elon musk of tweets january 10 january 12 115 139	9	$780	440	460	-20	Yes	+$9	01-11 12:47
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	6	$737	390	400	-10	No	-$2	02-07 15:13
elon musk of tweets january 23 january 30 320 339	5	$556	227	379	-152	No	-$13	01-27 06:37
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	23	$508	650	650	+0	No	+$3	06-24 15:28
elon musk of tweets january 16 january 23 400 419	12	$474	319	351	-32	No	-$8	01-22 16:17
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	19	$403	394	394	+0	open	—	06-01 13:45
will scream 7 opening weekend box office be between 55m and 60m	14	$398	260	260	+0	No	+$2	02-27 12:03
Will Mallory Dittmer be the Democratic nominee for SC-05?	6	$397	260	220	+40	Yes	+$4	06-09 13:55
israel strikes iran by january 9 2026	5	$386	200	200	+0	No	$0	01-08 16:46
elon musk of tweets january 6 january 13 540 559	5	$362	182	200	-18	Yes	+$14	01-11 11:43
Over $7M committed to the Infinex public sale?	4	$336	200	400	-200	Yes	+$56	01-08 16:02
atch will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by january 31	2	$336	200	200	+0	No	-$8	01-11 13:52
will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	6	$330	250	250	+0	Yes	-$4	07-06 17:04
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	6	$327	400	500	-100	No	+$24	02-16 05:04
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	5	$322	200	200	+0	Yes	+$18	05-29 16:27
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	9	$319	276	376	-100	No	-$27	05-27 14:33
elon musk of tweets april 11 april 13 65 89	17	$315	300	300	+0	No	+$10	04-12 10:32
will there be at least 1100 measles cases in the us by february 28 2026 285 136	5	$314	200	250	-50	Yes	+$36	02-24 19:02
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	3	$313	200	200	+0	$80k	-$1	04-28 14:02
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	11	$310	300	300	+0	Yes	+$2	05-31 15:04
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	3	$286	100	200	-100	No	-$4	05-11 10:24
Will the US economy be overheating at the end of 2026?	7	$260	320	320	+0	open	—	07-12 00:48
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	5	$248	150	150	+0	Yes	$0	04-06 12:38
elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 180 199	5	$245	170	170	+0	No	-$17	03-05 03:25
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?	2	$243	120	140	-20	No	-$1	02-20 13:35
Over $10M committed to the Infinex public sale?	6	$237	300	500	-200	No	+$20	01-09 13:49

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-12 00:48:19	Will the US economy be overheating at the end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	320	38¢	$122	0x29467b…
07-12 00:10:59	Will the median home value in the US be between $419,000 and $426,000 on September 30?	Yes	SELL	160	41¢	$66	0xb770f4…
07-11 09:12:59	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the September decision?	Yes	BUY	88	40¢	$35	0x8085d7…
07-11 06:31:47	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the September decision?	Yes	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0xed0543…
07-11 06:11:29	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the September decision?	Yes	BUY	30	41¢	$12	0xc696a9…
07-11 05:55:52	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the September decision?	Yes	BUY	64	41¢	$26	0x568cb6…
07-11 05:53:22	Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $335,000 and $340,000 on September 30?	Yes	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x06a3dd…
07-11 05:50:58	Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the September decision?	Yes	BUY	6	41¢	$2	0xb6dcd4…
07-11 05:41:35	Will the median home value in the US be between $419,000 and $426,000 on September 30?	Yes	BUY	100	41¢	$41	0xc2d89c…
07-08 16:09:52	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 9?	No	SELL	250	45¢	$112	0x5e179e…
07-08 07:09:14	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on July 9?	No	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x05368a…
07-08 07:08:46	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on July 9?	No	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xc915bb…
07-08 06:55:23	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on July 9?	Yes	BUY	13	61¢	$8	0x108b46…
07-08 06:01:14	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on July 9?	No	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0xccab52…
07-08 05:59:41	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on July 9?	No	BUY	12	38¢	$5	0x8f927f…
07-08 05:25:05	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on July 9?	No	BUY	8	38¢	$3	0x115da1…
07-08 04:37:05	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 9?	No	BUY	13	47¢	$6	0xe3dcbe…
07-08 04:37:04	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 9?	No	BUY	87	47¢	$41	0x5153b2…
07-08 04:36:59	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on July 9?	No	BUY	100	48¢	$48	0x28204b…
07-06 17:04:08	will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	Yes	SELL	50	14¢	$7	0x5c1b9d…
07-06 13:39:44	will the next gpt model released by openai debut at a score of at least 1490 by december 31 2026	No	SELL	82	70¢	$57	0x15f3af…
07-06 12:07:47	will the next gpt model released by openai debut at a score of at least 1490 by december 31 2026	No	SELL	58	70¢	$41	0x36fe1e…
07-06 10:07:13	will the next gpt model released by openai debut at a score of at least 1490 by december 31 2026	No	BUY	100	74¢	$74	0xb231a3…
07-06 09:35:38	will the next gpt model released by openai debut at a score of at least 1490 by december 31 2026	No	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0x2fc336…
07-06 09:35:28	will the next gpt model released by openai debut at a score of at least 1490 by december 31 2026	No	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0x9ab63e…
07-06 09:29:41	will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	Yes	BUY	50	14¢	$7	0xd03a9d…
07-05 14:30:07	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 6?	No	SELL	14	62¢	$9	0xff641c…
07-05 14:16:56	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 6?	No	SELL	4	62¢	$3	0x9014f3…
07-05 14:00:56	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 6?	No	SELL	2	62¢	$1	0x703163…
07-05 13:58:14	will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	No	SELL	200	78¢	$156	0x5b84d3…
07-05 12:15:31	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 6?	No	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0xd40fe2…
07-05 11:53:08	will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	No	BUY	100	79¢	$79	0x698f04…
07-05 11:50:53	will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	No	BUY	50	81¢	$40	0xd3241e…
06-30 17:30:17	Will South Korea GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.4%?	No	SELL	20	39¢	$8	0xbd5d99…
06-30 16:12:02	Will the US economy be overheating at the end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	42¢	$42	0x39fad0…
06-30 16:10:38	Will Misa Esports Win Emea Challengers Stage	Yes	BUY	2	8¢	$0	0x8a580c…
06-30 16:10:25	Will the US economy be overheating at the end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	43¢	$13	0x64ca05…
06-30 16:10:14	Will the US economy be overheating at the end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	43¢	$22	0x2f6ae9…
06-30 16:09:22	Will the US economy be overheating at the end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0x62f9e7…
06-30 16:09:11	Will the US economy be overheating at the end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	44¢	$44	0x48a27f…
06-30 16:07:10	Will Misa Esports Win Emea Challengers Stage	Yes	BUY	18	8¢	$1	0x938f2c…
06-30 15:59:35	Will Misa Esports Win Emea Challengers Stage	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0x69e0f4…
06-30 15:30:20	Will South Korea GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.4%?	No	BUY	18	38¢	$7	0xf6a299…
06-30 15:06:04	Will South Korea GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.4%?	No	BUY	2	38¢	$1	0x01c7f0…
06-30 06:53:28	Will Dwayne Romero be the Democratic nominee for CO-03?	No	SELL	100	55¢	$55	0xf872c0…
06-27 16:12:46	Will Shannon Bird be the Democratic nominee for CO-08?	Yes	BUY	100	6¢	$6	0xad181c…
06-27 15:46:16	Will Dwayne Romero be the Democratic nominee for CO-03?	No	BUY	50	54¢	$27	0x927ac7…
06-27 15:44:46	Will Dwayne Romero be the Democratic nominee for CO-03?	No	BUY	50	55¢	$28	0x237054…
06-26 08:13:23	Will Dwayne Romero be the Democratic nominee for CO-03?	No	SELL	1	52¢	$0	0x8e33b7…
06-26 02:31:11	Will Dwayne Romero be the Democratic nominee for CO-03?	No	SELL	16	52¢	$8	0x24d417…
06-26 02:23:29	Will Dwayne Romero be the Democratic nominee for CO-03?	No	SELL	5	52¢	$3	0x58572e…
06-26 01:58:26	Will Dwayne Romero be the Democratic nominee for CO-03?	No	SELL	5	52¢	$3	0xee3e81…
06-25 22:02:35	Will Dwayne Romero be the Democratic nominee for CO-03?	No	SELL	9	52¢	$4	0x599948…
06-25 16:13:59	Will Dwayne Romero be the Democratic nominee for CO-03?	No	SELL	5	52¢	$3	0xa79ff9…
06-25 08:28:49	will the us announce a blockade on iran by june 30 20260622191116911	No	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0xacb0a6…
06-25 04:20:40	Will Joe Reagan be the Democratic nominee for CO-05?	Yes	BUY	100	7¢	$7	0x491bd1…
06-25 04:20:05	Will Joe Reagan be the Democratic nominee for CO-05?	Yes	BUY	0	8¢	$0	0x81bb2d…
06-25 04:19:08	Will Joe Reagan be the Democratic nominee for CO-05?	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0x1be428…
06-25 04:18:29	Will Joe Reagan be the Democratic nominee for CO-05?	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0xf75028…
06-25 04:14:46	Will Joe Reagan be the Democratic nominee for CO-05?	Yes	BUY	60	8¢	$5	0xb25879…
06-25 04:14:46	Will Joe Reagan be the Democratic nominee for CO-05?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x0355a6…
06-25 04:14:46	Will Joe Reagan be the Democratic nominee for CO-05?	Yes	BUY	9	9¢	$1	0x032968…
06-25 04:14:17	Will Joe Reagan be the Democratic nominee for CO-05?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0xbedefd…
06-25 03:04:58	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by june 26 20260622192122519	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0xed0b96…
06-25 02:47:47	Will Dwayne Romero be the Democratic nominee for CO-03?	No	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xca54a1…
06-25 02:37:58	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by june 26 20260622192122519	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x970b65…
06-25 02:37:40	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by june 26 20260622192122519	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0xff2601…
06-25 02:28:34	Will Dwayne Romero be the Democratic nominee for CO-03?	No	BUY	20	52¢	$10	0x51d030…
06-25 02:05:52	will the us announce a blockade on iran by june 30 20260622191116911	No	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0x668cb7…
06-24 16:57:22	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by august 31	Yes	SELL	6	91¢	$6	0x8492f8…
06-24 15:28:10	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	SELL	223	97¢	$216	0x558b77…
06-24 15:05:07	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xd463de…
06-24 14:41:43	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	39	3¢	$1	0x478b27…
06-24 14:41:43	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	40	3¢	$1	0x3b1340…
06-24 14:41:41	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	37	3¢	$1	0xdcaa46…
06-24 14:41:41	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	38	3¢	$1	0x5ddd92…
06-24 14:40:35	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	28	3¢	$1	0xd80691…
06-24 14:40:35	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	44	3¢	$1	0xd76fa9…
06-24 14:40:35	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	16	3¢	$1	0x856703…
06-24 14:40:35	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	5	3¢	$0	0x29cfc1…
06-24 14:40:35	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	38	3¢	$1	0x11894c…
06-24 14:40:35	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	38	3¢	$1	0x0e00d1…
06-24 14:37:23	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	63	3¢	$2	0xb9359f…
06-24 14:37:23	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	14	3¢	$0	0x3390cd…
06-24 13:29:25	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0x995a03…
06-24 13:19:29	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by december 31	Yes	SELL	17	92¢	$16	0xbd26cd…
06-24 13:18:05	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	SELL	21	97¢	$20	0x41f36a…
06-24 13:08:31	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by december 31	Yes	SELL	33	92¢	$30	0x0860c1…
06-24 13:07:50	will ng reach 3 40 in june 2026	No	SELL	50	67¢	$34	0x7944ad…
06-24 12:19:22	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by august 31	Yes	BUY	6	91¢	$6	0xf4d2ea…
06-24 12:19:22	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by december 31	Yes	BUY	50	94¢	$47	0x70b6f4…
06-24 12:07:37	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x32c4db…
06-24 12:06:34	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0x1ce93a…
06-24 12:05:52	will ng reach 3 40 in june 2026	No	BUY	50	65¢	$32	0xac0844…
06-24 12:04:34	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0x1309af…
06-13 08:18:27	Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?	No	SELL	20	47¢	$9	0xb286fb…
06-13 08:10:30	Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?	No	SELL	10	47¢	$5	0x8696a1…
06-13 08:09:36	Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?	No	SELL	30	47¢	$14	0xd18049…
06-12 00:40:24	Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June?	No	SELL	55	64¢	$35	0xca29c1…
06-11 11:05:01	Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June?	No	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0xb426a1…