Tense-Contingency — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$37

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

909

lifetime

Volume

$25.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$28

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-04

last 07-05 13:58

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

72% — —

Politics

21% 0% $-28

Crypto

3% 0% $-9

Tech

2% — —

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Sports

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

17 active days in 12wk • peak 31 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
cbb akron txtech 2026 03 20	2	$1.5K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	03-20 11:43
cbb ucf ucla 2026 03 20	2	$1.3K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	03-20 11:43
cbb iowa clmsn 2026 03 20	2	$1.1K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	03-20 11:43
elon musk of tweets january 2 january 9 480 499	7	$853	560	980	-420	open	—	01-08 15:43
elon musk of tweets january 10 january 12 115 139	9	$780	440	460	-20	open	—	01-11 12:47
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	6	$737	390	400	-10	open	—	02-07 15:13
elon musk of tweets january 23 january 30 320 339	5	$556	227	379	-152	open	—	01-27 06:37
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	23	$508	650	650	+0	open	—	06-24 15:28
elon musk of tweets january 16 january 23 400 419	12	$474	319	351	-32	open	—	01-22 16:17
will scream 7 opening weekend box office be between 55m and 60m	14	$398	260	260	+0	open	—	02-27 12:03
israel strikes iran by january 9 2026	5	$386	200	200	+0	open	—	01-08 16:46
elon musk of tweets january 6 january 13 540 559	5	$362	182	200	-18	open	—	01-11 11:43
Over $7M committed to the Infinex public sale?	4	$336	200	400	-200	open	—	01-08 16:02
atch will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by january 31	2	$336	200	200	+0	open	—	01-11 13:52
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	6	$327	400	500	-100	open	—	02-16 05:04
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	9	$319	276	376	-100	open	—	05-27 14:33
will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	4	$316	200	200	+0	open	—	07-05 13:58
elon musk of tweets april 11 april 13 65 89	17	$315	300	300	+0	open	—	04-12 10:32
will there be at least 1100 measles cases in the us by february 28 2026 285 136	5	$314	200	250	-50	open	—	02-24 19:02
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?	3	$313	200	200	+0	open	—	04-28 14:02
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	4	$293	163	200	-37	open	—	05-29 16:27
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	3	$286	100	200	-100	open	—	05-11 10:24
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	5	$248	150	150	+0	open	—	04-06 12:38
elon musk of tweets february 27 march 6 180 199	5	$245	170	170	+0	open	—	03-05 03:25
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?	2	$243	120	140	-20	open	—	02-20 13:35
Over $10M committed to the Infinex public sale?	6	$237	300	500	-200	open	—	01-09 13:49
will russia join the board of peace	3	$232	160	160	+0	open	—	01-27 07:22
Katana FDV above $100M one day after launch?	4	$229	200	200	+0	No	$-9	03-07 09:17
will one battle after another win best screenplay motion picture at the 83rd golden globes	6	$218	200	200	+0	open	—	01-11 17:42
Based FDV above $100M one day after launch?	6	$214	270	70	+200	open	—	03-31 08:29

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-05 13:58:14	will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	No	SELL	200	78¢	$156	0x5b84d3…
07-05 11:53:08	will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	No	BUY	100	79¢	$79	0x698f04…
07-05 11:50:53	will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	No	BUY	50	81¢	$40	0xd3241e…
06-25 08:28:49	will the us announce a blockade on iran by june 30 20260622191116911	No	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0xacb0a6…
06-25 03:04:58	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by june 26 20260622192122519	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0xed0b96…
06-25 02:37:58	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by june 26 20260622192122519	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x970b65…
06-25 02:37:40	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by june 26 20260622192122519	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0xff2601…
06-25 02:05:52	will the us announce a blockade on iran by june 30 20260622191116911	No	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0x668cb7…
06-24 16:57:22	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by august 31	Yes	SELL	6	91¢	$6	0x8492f8…
06-24 15:28:10	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	SELL	223	97¢	$216	0x558b77…
06-24 15:05:07	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xd463de…
06-24 14:41:43	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	39	3¢	$1	0x478b27…
06-24 14:41:43	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	40	3¢	$1	0x3b1340…
06-24 14:41:41	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	37	3¢	$1	0xdcaa46…
06-24 14:41:41	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	38	3¢	$1	0x5ddd92…
06-24 14:40:35	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	28	3¢	$1	0xd80691…
06-24 14:40:35	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	44	3¢	$1	0xd76fa9…
06-24 14:40:35	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	16	3¢	$1	0x856703…
06-24 14:40:35	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	5	3¢	$0	0x29cfc1…
06-24 14:40:35	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	38	3¢	$1	0x11894c…
06-24 14:40:35	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	38	3¢	$1	0x0e00d1…
06-24 14:37:23	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	63	3¢	$2	0xb9359f…
06-24 14:37:23	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	14	3¢	$0	0x3390cd…
06-24 13:29:25	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0x995a03…
06-24 13:19:29	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by december 31	Yes	SELL	17	92¢	$16	0xbd26cd…
06-24 13:18:05	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	SELL	21	97¢	$20	0x41f36a…
06-24 13:08:31	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by december 31	Yes	SELL	33	92¢	$30	0x0860c1…
06-24 13:07:50	will ng reach 3 40 in june 2026	No	SELL	50	67¢	$34	0x7944ad…
06-24 12:19:22	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by august 31	Yes	BUY	6	91¢	$6	0xf4d2ea…
06-24 12:19:22	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by december 31	Yes	BUY	50	94¢	$47	0x70b6f4…
06-24 12:07:37	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x32c4db…
06-24 12:06:34	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0x1ce93a…
06-24 12:05:52	will ng reach 3 40 in june 2026	No	BUY	50	65¢	$32	0xac0844…
06-24 12:04:34	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0x1309af…
06-11 09:45:10	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1550	Yes	BUY	50	1¢	$1	0x9da4ef…
06-10 23:04:36	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540	Yes	SELL	50	47¢	$24	0x8f5b15…
06-10 15:52:37	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	26	32¢	$8	0x15e8c7…
06-10 15:47:18	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	24	32¢	$8	0x6b13df…
06-10 14:27:13	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	100	71¢	$71	0xed4772…
06-10 14:07:27	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1540	Yes	BUY	50	46¢	$23	0x0d8f8e…
06-10 13:48:36	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	50	70¢	$35	0x384003…
06-10 13:48:31	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	32¢	$16	0x047f6d…
06-10 13:48:22	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	50	71¢	$36	0xde9ed3…
06-09 12:46:31	worst cup fakers fc vspt infamous fc 20260603233701031	Infamous	SELL	100	34¢	$34	0x576d9d…
06-09 10:00:00	worst cup fakers fc vspt infamous fc 20260603233701031	Infamous	BUY	50	38¢	$19	0x888f5f…
06-01 20:48:40	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?	No	SELL	100	44¢	$44	0x92ceff…
06-01 16:04:45	Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	85¢	$85	0x572fff…
06-01 12:52:00	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?	No	BUY	55	42¢	$23	0xcb7fcc…
06-01 12:45:33	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?	No	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0x30972f…
06-01 12:40:18	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?	No	BUY	20	42¢	$8	0x263fd0…
06-01 12:40:07	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?	No	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0xe1a4f8…
06-01 12:08:22	Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	82¢	$82	0xfd7c86…
05-31 15:04:52	US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	21	42¢	$9	0xda9256…
05-31 15:02:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	24	42¢	$10	0x2d48f7…
05-31 15:02:00	US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	42¢	$2	0xd3748a…
05-31 14:58:23	US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	24	42¢	$10	0x2968f5…
05-31 14:58:20	US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	42¢	$2	0x80cfaf…
05-31 14:54:29	US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	42¢	$7	0xacb684…
05-31 14:54:29	US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	42¢	$2	0x66c2f0…
05-31 13:17:46	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	19	67¢	$12	0xc2d23e…
05-31 13:09:16	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	30	67¢	$20	0x07720b…
05-31 10:17:04	US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	41¢	$41	0xacbf2c…
05-31 09:29:42	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	50	66¢	$33	0x800c35…
05-31 09:27:12	The Polymarket Open: Big John vs. Cheddy	John	BUY	53	74¢	$39	0x6ff975…
05-31 08:28:54	US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	57¢	$57	0x013fd8…
05-29 19:38:07	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30?	Yes	SELL	60	79¢	$47	0x19e2c9…
05-29 17:29:54	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30?	Yes	SELL	20	79¢	$16	0x41e0f7…
05-29 16:27:43	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	Yes	SELL	200	85¢	$170	0x89a6ec…
05-29 15:29:06	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	124	4¢	$5	0xc47e45…
05-29 14:29:25	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	26	4¢	$1	0xca9a88…
05-29 14:06:35	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	8	96¢	$8	0xcc9672…
05-29 13:47:11	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	Yes	BUY	50	76¢	$38	0xd570ae…
05-29 13:47:11	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	Yes	BUY	100	75¢	$75	0x29f49e…
05-29 11:46:17	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30?	Yes	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0xc85398…
05-29 11:45:49	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	Yes	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0x7657e0…
05-29 11:32:42	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	8	96¢	$8	0xe08ee1…
05-29 11:32:05	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	2	4¢	$0	0xffff9d…
05-29 11:32:03	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	48	3¢	$2	0x5d4fa7…
05-27 14:33:42	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	No	SELL	137	61¢	$83	0x0b1051…
05-27 14:33:21	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	No	SELL	63	61¢	$39	0xf09f48…
05-27 14:28:52	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	Yes	SELL	147	42¢	$62	0x3333f7…
05-27 14:28:39	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	Yes	SELL	29	42¢	$12	0x6f74c2…
05-27 14:24:27	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	Yes	BUY	76	40¢	$30	0x230a4e…
05-27 14:24:22	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	Yes	BUY	82	41¢	$34	0xe37d93…
05-27 14:24:17	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	Yes	BUY	18	41¢	$7	0x700d7d…
05-27 14:20:59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	Yes	BUY	0	41¢	$0	0x80a702…
05-27 13:45:54	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	No	BUY	100	52¢	$52	0xb02ae7…
05-22 09:54:06	Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	80	58¢	$46	0x78a7a1…
05-22 08:15:54	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	Yes	SELL	50	73¢	$36	0xae9694…
05-22 06:40:47	Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	BUY	20	61¢	$12	0xdcc6b8…
05-22 06:40:14	Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	BUY	20	62¢	$12	0xe0920d…
05-21 13:30:04	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in May?	Yes	SELL	49	56¢	$27	0x9f5069…
05-21 02:55:08	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in May?	Yes	BUY	31	53¢	$16	0x085682…
05-21 02:51:14	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in May?	Yes	BUY	49	59¢	$29	0x1c57bb…
05-16 14:13:11	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $580 in May?	Yes	SELL	50	33¢	$16	0x676254…
05-15 17:26:48	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $465 in May?	Yes	SELL	50	28¢	$14	0xd29200…
05-15 15:00:21	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $465 in May?	Yes	BUY	38	29¢	$11	0x593688…
05-15 14:52:27	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $465 in May?	Yes	BUY	12	29¢	$4	0xa86b7d…
05-15 14:43:49	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $580 in May?	Yes	BUY	50	35¢	$18	0x8123f9…
05-15 14:39:40	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.70 in May?	Yes	BUY	50	29¢	$14	0x9651cb…