Improbable-Thunder — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$9

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

75.1%

Resolved

116

Trades

506

lifetime

Volume

$632

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-15

last 05-11 13:47

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Crypto

98% 66% +$10

Politics

1% 0% $-1

Other

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 176 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (20) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	5	$15	14	14	+0	Down	+$9	05-08 16:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	4	$14	8	8	+0	Down	+$0	05-08 18:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	4	$12	9	6	+3	Up	$-2	05-08 19:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	3	$9	15	15	+0	Down	+$5	05-09 09:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	6	$8	9	8	+1	Down	+$1	05-08 16:09
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	7	$8	5	5	+0	open	—	04-15 22:10
btc updown 5m 1776292200	7	$8	9	7	+2	open	—	04-15 22:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	4	$8	11	10	+1	Up	+$2	05-08 19:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	5	$8	6	4	+2	Down	+$0	05-08 14:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	6	$7	6	3	+3	Down	+$0	05-08 14:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	5	$7	4	4	+0	Down	+$0	05-08 19:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	4	$7	12	12	+0	Up	+$3	05-08 18:54
btc updown 5m 1776298500	4	$6	5	4	+1	open	—	04-16 00:19
btc updown 5m 1776291600	4	$6	3	3	+0	open	—	04-15 22:25
btc updown 5m 1776306600	4	$6	3	3	+0	open	—	04-16 02:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	4	$6	8	8	+0	Down	+$2	05-08 19:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	3	$6	5	5	+0	Down	+$2	05-08 16:14
btc updown 5m 1776294300	6	$6	4	4	+0	open	—	04-15 23:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	3	$6	8	8	+0	Down	+$2	05-09 10:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	4	$6	5	4	+1	Down	+$1	05-08 14:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	4	$6	14	13	+1	Down	+$1	05-08 14:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	5	$6	6	2	+4	Down	+$2	05-08 13:24
btc updown 5m 1776270300	5	$5	5	3	+2	open	—	04-15 16:30
btc updown 5m 1776280200	4	$5	4	2	+1	open	—	04-15 19:15
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	5	$5	4	3	+1	Down	+$0	05-11 13:19
btc updown 5m 1776293100	5	$5	5	3	+2	open	—	04-15 22:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	4	$5	8	8	+0	Down	+$1	05-08 16:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	4	$5	10	10	+0	Down	+$1	05-11 12:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	3	$5	4	2	+1	Up	$-1	05-09 14:38
btc updown 5m 1776289200	5	$5	4	2	+2	open	—	04-15 21:45

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-11 13:47:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x6d1db1…
05-11 13:46:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	SELL	2	58¢	$1	0x2195ea…
05-11 13:45:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xadbf6f…
05-11 13:38:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x6ecf64…
05-11 13:37:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x07923b…
05-11 13:37:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Up	SELL	2	14¢	$0	0x5cbcf9…
05-11 13:35:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xceef6f…
05-11 13:31:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Down	SELL	1	87¢	$1	0x84824d…
05-11 13:31:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Down	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x5ebca9…
05-11 13:27:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Down	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x583af3…
05-11 13:26:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xa57658…
05-11 13:20:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Down	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x02beae…
05-11 13:19:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Down	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x3bfadb…
05-11 13:19:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Up	SELL	1	87¢	$1	0x827be3…
05-11 13:18:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Up	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x43eff1…
05-11 13:16:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Up	SELL	2	79¢	$1	0xd8b96b…
05-11 13:16:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Up	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0xd54ba3…
05-11 13:05:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x7b3699…
05-11 13:01:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xeb2588…
05-11 12:58:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	SELL	2	68¢	$2	0xdffe39…
05-11 12:57:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0x0a476a…
05-11 12:55:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	SELL	2	54¢	$1	0x0b9665…
05-11 12:55:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xe6c65a…
05-11 12:48:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Down	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0x3d7972…
05-11 12:48:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Down	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xd280f2…
05-11 12:42:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Down	SELL	2	56¢	$1	0xcef0e9…
05-11 12:40:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x0f64ee…
05-11 12:38:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	SELL	5	41¢	$2	0x15da05…
05-11 12:37:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xcefab1…
05-11 12:36:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	SELL	4	24¢	$1	0x2ce7f9…
05-11 12:36:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xa36186…
05-11 12:33:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Down	SELL	7	34¢	$2	0x2b86c4…
05-11 12:32:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xc87079…
05-11 12:30:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Down	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x111ea9…
05-11 12:29:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x182d8a…
05-11 12:29:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x46fd3d…
05-11 12:25:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	SELL	2	70¢	$1	0x70bc63…
05-11 12:25:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xa00019…
05-11 12:23:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Down	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xd35de7…
05-11 12:22:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xadb69a…
05-11 12:17:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	SELL	3	51¢	$2	0x5c2090…
05-11 12:16:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xa0a65b…
05-11 12:16:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	SELL	3	34¢	$1	0x6bdc84…
05-11 12:15:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xa88db0…
05-11 12:14:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x88c9d1…
05-10 20:51:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xc1b2ef…
05-10 20:50:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xa001e9…
05-10 20:46:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Down	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x0e38e8…
05-10 20:42:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Down	SELL	3	57¢	$2	0x7731a7…
05-10 20:41:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x465ffa…
05-10 13:53:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	SELL	1	83¢	$1	0x0e7113…
05-10 13:52:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x8c06e6…
05-10 09:44:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x5c5eb8…
05-09 19:52:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	SELL	4	46¢	$2	0xa56c73…
05-09 19:51:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x5f7214…
05-09 17:44:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Down	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x70719d…
05-09 17:44:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xf6ebc4…
05-09 17:44:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Down	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0xb00c09…
05-09 16:36:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Down	SELL	2	67¢	$1	0x811553…
05-09 16:36:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xa97927…
05-09 15:26:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	SELL	4	25¢	$1	0xd5ea0b…
05-09 15:25:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x161601…
05-09 14:51:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	SELL	2	73¢	$1	0x1f51fb…
05-09 14:50:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Down	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x3d8f78…
05-09 14:38:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0xe7bf98…
05-09 14:37:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	SELL	2	84¢	$2	0x5584fc…
05-09 14:37:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0xd1204d…
05-09 13:49:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	SELL	8	24¢	$2	0xc8a291…
05-09 13:47:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x92a1ff…
05-09 13:44:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Down	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x04bc51…
05-09 13:44:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xacec4e…
05-09 13:39:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x36472b…
05-09 13:36:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xac68ea…
05-09 13:33:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Down	SELL	6	49¢	$3	0x94e588…
05-09 13:33:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Down	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x9a02c1…
05-09 13:29:38	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xc2ac8b…
05-09 11:26:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x00383b…
05-09 11:24:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Down	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0x1d4b09…
05-09 11:23:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Down	SELL	2	54¢	$1	0x1e87ce…
05-09 11:23:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Down	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xf4492b…
05-09 11:13:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x0a907a…
05-09 11:12:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x72b35a…
05-09 11:03:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Down	BUY	15	6¢	$1	0xf934b7…
05-09 11:02:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x2d2466…
05-09 10:53:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Down	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xd293dc…
05-09 10:40:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	SELL	3	46¢	$1	0xd124bf…
05-09 10:40:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xb81cfa…
05-09 10:30:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Down	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x894c5c…
05-09 10:29:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Down	SELL	8	48¢	$4	0xcfc66a…
05-09 10:28:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Down	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x15cbe0…
05-09 10:27:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Down	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x89049c…
05-09 10:21:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Down	SELL	3	38¢	$1	0x810021…
05-09 10:20:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Down	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x9f0057…
05-09 10:18:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Down	SELL	3	42¢	$1	0xc9702c…
05-09 10:18:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Down	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xab0b7c…
05-09 10:16:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Down	SELL	5	26¢	$1	0x83de1d…
05-09 10:16:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x652338…
05-09 10:11:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x123d5e…
05-09 10:06:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x162caf…
05-09 10:05:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x9abb81…