Far-Off-Presume — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$7

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

68.6%

Resolved

115

Trades

251

lifetime

Volume

$1.56K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-20

last 08-31 06:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 55 days

Categories

Other

96% 62% +$6

Politics

2% 100% +$0

Tech

2% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	1	$35	35	0	+35	Yes	+$0	06-20 18:17
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?	2	$30	15	15	+0	No	+$0	06-01 04:04
will spacex have exactly 13 launches in june 2026	2	$29	15	15	+0	No	+$1	06-29 06:53
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?	2	$26	13	13	+0	Yes	+$0	06-28 17:59
Will Hughie Campbell die in "The Boys: Season 5"?	2	$25	13	13	+0	No	+$1	05-20 10:08
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 12.5m and 13.5m?	2	$23	12	12	+0	No	+$1	05-04 19:15
Will Colin Allred be the Democratic nominee for TX-33?	2	$23	12	12	+0	Yes	+$1	05-27 05:19
Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond?	1	$23	23	0	+23	No	+$0	06-25 12:51
Will DeepSeek have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?	1	$20	20	0	+20	No	+$0	06-29 02:42
Will Rom Reddy win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	06-10 02:06
Will MrBeast's next video get between 49 and 50 million views on day 4?	2	$19	10	10	+0	Yes	+$1	06-17 09:27
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 12?	2	$15	30	0	+30	No	$0	06-11 14:21
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 9?	3	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	06-09 05:14
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on April 28?	3	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	04-27 13:01
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on May 6?	2	$15	30	0	+30	No	$0	05-05 15:02
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 36°C on May 5?	2	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	05-04 19:26
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 28?	2	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	05-27 16:59
highest temperature in beijing on april 21 2026 27c	2	$15	30	0	+30	Yes	+$0	04-21 07:06
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 16?	4	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	05-16 03:23
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 30?	2	$15	30	0	+30	No	$0	04-29 14:44
highest temperature in ankara on april 23 2026 6c	2	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	04-22 13:06
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or below on June 2?	2	$15	30	0	+30	Yes	+$0	06-01 23:45
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 29?	2	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	05-29 06:25
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 79°F or below on June 25?	3	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	06-24 16:34
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 70°F or higher on May 27?	2	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	05-27 22:21
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 3?	2	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	06-02 17:00
highest temperature in chongqing on april 23 2026 24c	2	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	04-23 05:54
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 3?	3	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	06-03 13:08
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 35°F or below on April 26?	4	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	04-25 22:45
highest temperature in warsaw on april 22 2026 15c	5	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	04-22 04:33

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-31 06:00:48	Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 11?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xf6e1d0…
08-31 03:54:27	Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be between 300m and 350m by August 31?	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x815ddc…
07-28 05:35:28	will tsla reach 450 in july 2026	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x30e207…
06-29 06:53:04	will spacex have exactly 13 launches in june 2026	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0xa02a2c…
06-29 02:42:08	Will DeepSeek have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x5cc39f…
06-29 00:35:17	will spacex have exactly 13 launches in june 2026	No	BUY	15	93¢	$14	0xa5c52f…
06-28 17:59:16	Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?	Yes	SELL	13	99¢	$13	0x5cef16…
06-28 07:32:28	Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?	Yes	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0x64faa9…
06-27 12:45:19	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 28?	Yes	BUY	13	1¢	$0	0x7ede60…
06-27 12:11:55	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 28?	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0xdad977…
06-26 10:18:01	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 26?	No	BUY	14	1¢	$0	0x6a7f9e…
06-26 10:16:46	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 26?	Yes	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0xefaf50…
06-25 15:15:52	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 26?	Yes	BUY	7	2¢	$0	0x673b9b…
06-25 14:16:26	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 26?	Yes	BUY	3	2¢	$0	0x6f8f6c…
06-25 12:51:25	Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x8eda43…
06-25 12:07:47	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 26?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x63b836…
06-24 16:34:02	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 79°F or below on June 25?	Yes	BUY	0	1¢	$0	0x638aa0…
06-24 16:09:43	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 79°F or below on June 25?	Yes	BUY	15	1¢	$0	0xa5cca1…
06-24 12:03:46	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 79°F or below on June 25?	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x4af761…
06-23 06:59:28	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 23?	Yes	BUY	13	1¢	$0	0xbd1450…
06-23 06:46:02	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 23?	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0xbc18b3…
06-22 06:25:31	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 22?	Yes	BUY	11	2¢	$0	0xa158e0…
06-22 06:23:50	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 22?	No	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0x90c1f8…
06-20 19:03:34	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 65°F or below on June 21?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x6cad4f…
06-20 18:17:05	Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0x24f6a9…
06-20 18:12:58	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 65°F or below on June 21?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xb4588b…
06-19 23:00:50	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 20?	Yes	BUY	3	1¢	$0	0x8fd8bb…
06-19 23:00:25	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 20?	Yes	BUY	9	1¢	$0	0xa807f5…
06-19 20:31:38	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 20?	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0xd2f1a2…
06-18 08:08:20	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18?	No	BUY	11	1¢	$0	0x086ad8…
06-18 08:08:07	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18?	Yes	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0xa267c7…
06-17 09:27:25	Will MrBeast's next video get between 49 and 50 million views on day 4?	Yes	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x0e73c8…
06-16 23:44:50	Will MrBeast's next video get between 49 and 50 million views on day 4?	Yes	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x91e6c4…
06-16 05:35:49	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 16?	Yes	BUY	12	2¢	$0	0x9632d3…
06-15 18:14:40	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 16?	No	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0xbc913e…
06-15 02:24:33	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 15?	Yes	BUY	4	2¢	$0	0x3a360c…
06-15 02:24:31	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 15?	Yes	BUY	6	2¢	$0	0xc4b4fa…
06-15 00:20:28	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 15?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x294f5d…
06-14 04:01:04	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 14?	Yes	BUY	11	2¢	$0	0x6e7665…
06-14 03:44:13	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 14?	No	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0xbbf09e…
06-14 03:25:48	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 14?	Yes	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0x4f8935…
06-14 03:19:31	Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 14?	No	BUY	14	98¢	$14	0xc486e2…
06-14 03:10:34	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 14?	No	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0x568b6f…
06-13 07:10:24	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 13?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x9588d7…
06-13 07:10:24	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 13?	Yes	BUY	8	1¢	$0	0x804ced…
06-13 07:10:09	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 13?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xd7b23c…
06-13 04:33:12	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 13?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x2b1386…
06-12 09:53:28	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on June 12?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x9874b7…
06-12 08:28:27	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on June 12?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xf21549…
06-11 14:21:37	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 12?	Yes	BUY	15	1¢	$0	0xd58128…
06-11 12:03:16	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 12?	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0xfb2f27…
06-10 14:01:45	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 11?	Yes	BUY	11	1¢	$0	0x95436a…
06-10 12:20:36	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 11?	No	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x278ba3…
06-10 02:06:22	Will Rom Reddy win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x2f3046…
06-09 05:14:18	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 9?	Yes	BUY	4	2¢	$0	0x517f51…
06-09 05:14:10	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 9?	Yes	BUY	11	2¢	$0	0x88d511…
06-08 12:04:48	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 9?	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0x7c8f61…
06-08 06:56:55	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 8?	Yes	BUY	7	1¢	$0	0x4bc705…
06-08 06:49:52	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 8?	Yes	BUY	4	1¢	$0	0xa9f201…
06-08 00:03:12	Will Rom Reddy win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xbe4007…
06-07 12:03:25	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 8?	No	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x2c6c8f…
06-06 21:05:15	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 7?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x31a473…
06-06 21:00:13	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 7?	Yes	BUY	2	2¢	$0	0x5ae72d…
06-06 16:37:45	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 7?	Yes	BUY	6	2¢	$0	0xf9dc4b…
06-06 15:14:27	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 7?	No	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0xb4286b…
06-06 11:54:25	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 6?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xfcfc2b…
06-06 07:05:03	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 6?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xf7d6e0…
06-05 12:56:19	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on June 6?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xded92f…
06-05 12:05:58	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on June 6?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xbb730f…
06-04 19:31:27	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on June 5?	Yes	BUY	13	1¢	$0	0xb9524a…
06-04 18:05:21	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on June 5?	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0xdceb06…
06-03 13:08:16	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 3?	Yes	BUY	3	2¢	$0	0x1f8717…
06-03 13:07:26	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 3?	Yes	BUY	12	2¢	$0	0x7133f5…
06-03 11:05:46	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 3?	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0x4ac64a…
06-02 17:00:39	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 3?	Yes	BUY	15	1¢	$0	0x282410…
06-02 12:01:03	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 3?	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x9c7234…
06-01 23:45:21	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or below on June 2?	Yes	BUY	15	2¢	$0	0xc14c6c…
06-01 19:59:43	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or below on June 2?	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0xaa1e94…
06-01 08:31:01	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 1?	No	BUY	13	2¢	$0	0x417493…
06-01 08:30:12	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 1?	Yes	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0x459665…
06-01 04:04:20	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x8ae0b5…
05-31 19:37:39	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on May 31?	Yes	BUY	11	1¢	$0	0xce17e6…
05-31 16:15:11	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 1?	Yes	BUY	12	2¢	$0	0xbf36d9…
05-31 16:06:28	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 1?	No	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0x23f9c0…
05-31 08:30:16	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on May 31?	No	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x96ee3f…
05-30 12:12:25	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0xc4cd94…
05-30 06:25:41	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on May 30?	Yes	BUY	12	1¢	$0	0x783333…
05-30 05:48:40	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on May 30?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x7ad28d…
05-30 05:45:48	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on May 30?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x1d6d6d…
05-29 18:39:23	Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on May 30?	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0xd8da73…
05-29 06:25:41	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 29?	Yes	BUY	15	2¢	$0	0xfee994…
05-29 06:22:01	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 29?	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0x238099…
05-28 13:31:20	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on May 29?	Yes	BUY	9	2¢	$0	0x813e03…
05-28 13:28:11	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on May 29?	Yes	BUY	3	2¢	$0	0x4b0959…
05-28 13:17:36	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on May 29?	No	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0x1bba3f…
05-28 06:34:45	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 28?	No	BUY	12	2¢	$0	0x483e11…
05-28 06:11:28	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 28?	Yes	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0x94142c…
05-27 22:21:30	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 70°F or higher on May 27?	Yes	BUY	15	2¢	$0	0xcbef2b…
05-27 16:59:09	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 28?	Yes	BUY	15	2¢	$0	0x35083d…
05-27 12:15:20	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 28?	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0x755346…