Runny-Dinner — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$20

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

69.8%

Resolved

484

Trades

878

lifetime

Volume

$1.54K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-03-03

last 10-18 04:34

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 57 days

Categories

Crypto

89% 48% -$2

Other

8% 48% -$9

Politics

2% 100% +$5

Sports

1% 0% -$15

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes		+4	$3	95¢	$4	+$1	10-18 04:34

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-16 05:55 UTC	6	$53	31	31	+0	Up	+$7	03-16 06:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-12 03:05 UTC	8	$42	26	26	+0	Up	+$4	03-12 03:10
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	5	$38	22	22	+0	No	+$6	04-01 05:53
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-12 03:00 UTC	4	$32	18	18	+0	Up	+$3	03-12 03:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-01 08:00 UTC	2	$30	38	0	+38	Down	-$30	04-01 08:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-10 09:35 UTC	5	$30	17	17	+0	Down	+$3	03-10 09:40
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 10:15 UTC	4	$29	16	16	+0	Up	$0	03-11 10:20
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-10 09:10 UTC	4	$27	14	14	+0	Up	+$1	03-10 09:15
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-10 09:00 UTC	3	$26	13	13	+0	Up	+$0	03-10 09:05
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-08 12:50 UTC	6	$25	15	15	+0	Up	+$3	03-08 12:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-19 08:20 UTC	3	$23	13	13	+0	Up	+$3	03-19 08:25
will trump visit china by march 31	3	$22	13	13	+0	No	+$4	03-18 14:00
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET	3	$17	20	18	+1	Up	+$14	04-25 09:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-03 07:00 UTC	2	$15	17	0	+17	Up	-$15	03-03 07:03
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	1	$15	23	0	+23	No	-$15	06-02 14:30
lol wb al 2026 03 05	3	$14	9	9	+0	Weibo Gaming	+$4	03-05 12:40
lol blg fox1 2026 03 16	5	$14	28	3	+25	Bilibili Gaming	-$12	03-16 16:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-16 05:50 UTC	9	$13	11	11	+0	Down	+$1	03-16 05:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-31 05:50 UTC	5	$11	14	11	+3	Up	$0	03-31 05:54
lol jdg blg 2026 03 04	4	$9	5	5	+0	Bilibili Gaming	+$2	03-04 13:48
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-09 10:50 UTC	6	$9	8	8	+0	Down	+$3	03-09 10:55
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-21 06:35 UTC	2	$8	7	7	+0	Down	+$5	04-21 06:40
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-20 12:35 UTC	2	$8	7	6	+0	Down	+$5	04-20 12:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-21 15:05 UTC	2	$8	7	6	+0	Up	+$5	04-21 15:10
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-17 07:45 UTC	2	$8	6	6	+0	Down	+$4	04-17 07:50
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-20 10:45 UTC	2	$8	6	6	+0	Down	+$4	04-20 10:50
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-31 09:05 UTC	2	$8	4	4	+0	Down	+$0	03-31 09:10
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-20 08:30 UTC	2	$7	6	5	+0	Up	+$4	04-20 08:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	2	$7	5	5	+0	Down	+$3	05-05 14:35
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-20 06:45 UTC	2	$7	6	5	+0	Down	+$4	04-20 06:50

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-18 04:34:26	Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	63¢	$3	0x34b0ed…
10-18 04:33:57	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	89¢	$2	0x0cf15c…
07-19 22:04:49	Will Arman Tsarukyan fight Charles Oliveira next?	Yes	SELL	1	68¢	$1	0x0de597…
06-02 14:30:53	Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	23	64¢	$15	0xa49b22…
06-02 14:25:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x5cecfe…
06-02 14:17:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0xf30068…
06-02 11:06:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x4e170a…
06-02 11:03:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Down	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x3b5759…
06-02 10:59:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Down	SELL	2	23¢	$0	0x47dd03…
06-02 10:55:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xe64a3f…
06-02 10:47:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Up	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xce7400…
06-02 10:44:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Up	SELL	2	27¢	$1	0x3657a5…
06-02 10:41:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x8dc8d8…
06-02 10:37:58	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2?	No	SELL	25	6¢	$2	0x22829a…
06-02 09:49:24	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2?	No	BUY	21	5¢	$1	0xdbf5fc…
06-02 09:46:55	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2?	No	BUY	4	6¢	$0	0xcbf7f3…
06-02 09:33:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Up	SELL	2	96¢	$2	0xc27fba…
06-02 09:31:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Up	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x0ca925…
06-02 09:17:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Up	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x409a64…
06-02 09:15:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Up	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xd9dbea…
05-31 12:55:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x6845de…
05-31 12:45:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Down	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x5e5c3f…
05-31 12:42:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Up	SELL	2	94¢	$2	0x5e48f6…
05-31 12:40:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xebead4…
05-31 12:31:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xbc8df3…
05-28 09:56:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xb86b5d…
05-28 09:52:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Down	SELL	4	74¢	$3	0xd94f57…
05-28 09:50:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Down	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0xf49904…
05-28 09:46:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xb793ec…
05-28 09:43:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x5abe77…
05-28 09:42:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	SELL	8	22¢	$2	0x9e9010…
05-28 09:41:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xa9678f…
05-28 09:40:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x31eeaa…
05-28 09:39:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Down	SELL	4	19¢	$1	0xfbed2e…
05-28 09:35:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Down	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xb8aece…
05-28 09:29:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Down	SELL	2	59¢	$1	0x3016bb…
05-28 09:25:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x09ea43…
05-28 02:31:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Up	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x3f5ccf…
05-28 02:29:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Down	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x62804b…
05-28 02:28:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	SELL	4	28¢	$1	0x62f466…
05-28 02:27:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x6423b3…
05-28 02:26:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x53b7c9…
05-28 02:21:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Up	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x3661b2…
05-28 02:13:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x509684…
05-27 14:36:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x90045d…
05-27 09:49:49	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x44d632…
05-27 02:00:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x820c85…
05-27 01:56:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x45600b…
05-25 02:56:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xa51b16…
05-22 13:53:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Up	SELL	1	69¢	$1	0x6aaf5f…
05-22 13:52:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Up	SELL	1	26¢	$0	0xda61ea…
05-22 13:50:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x71dece…
05-22 13:49:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0xe18d45…
05-22 13:48:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xb4a20c…
05-18 11:36:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Down	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x27c270…
05-18 11:33:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Down	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x41b68d…
05-18 11:32:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Down	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x9205ec…
05-18 11:26:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x80c628…
05-18 11:23:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Down	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x404761…
05-18 10:51:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Down	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x9e0b06…
05-17 10:29:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Up	SELL	3	98¢	$3	0x3bf1ab…
05-17 10:25:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0x4d9367…
05-17 10:21:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Down	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xed3d24…
05-17 10:15:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x6d66c6…
05-17 10:13:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Up	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x579e7d…
05-17 10:11:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Up	BUY	3	73¢	$2	0x67d5b9…
05-17 10:06:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x2c5419…
05-17 10:00:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xba3d41…
05-17 09:55:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x1344c4…
05-17 09:51:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xde6063…
05-17 09:49:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x9531d2…
05-16 11:38:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Down	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x933cc5…
05-16 11:35:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Down	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x9bd0c2…
05-16 11:16:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Down	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x2e4b54…
05-16 11:12:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xefa05c…
05-13 11:00:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xb24499…
05-13 10:57:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xeccab2…
05-13 10:51:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x2c284d…
05-13 10:51:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x0a122e…
05-13 10:45:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Up	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xd14ce2…
05-13 10:41:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xaa0133…
05-13 10:36:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xd0d46b…
05-13 09:52:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Down	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xbaf684…
05-13 09:47:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x6e2fa5…
05-13 09:31:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Down	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x5c7458…
05-13 09:25:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x05dc87…
05-13 09:15:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Down	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x87cd5d…
05-13 09:00:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Down	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xf0966d…
05-13 08:46:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Down	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xb8f30e…
05-13 08:36:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Down	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x14e64e…
05-13 08:30:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x29c853…
05-13 08:29:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xc8ddc3…
05-13 08:28:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Down	SELL	3	15¢	$0	0xadeeb9…
05-13 08:25:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x137102…
05-12 11:15:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x3afcd2…
05-12 09:23:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Down	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x982b91…
05-12 09:20:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Down	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xcd02d2…
05-12 09:16:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Up	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xb02c43…
05-12 04:45:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Down	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x82e2ab…
05-12 04:40:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xdd7fa8…