Different-Hazel — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$12.0K

Unrealized P&L

+$846

Hit rate

92.6%

Resolved

32,241

Trades

228,902

lifetime

Volume

$7.44M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$32

Open exposure

$22.0K

30 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-29 17:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 275 days

Categories

Other

72% 85% +$14,377

Sports

13% 94% +$2,235

Politics

11% 88% +$3,594

Crypto

1% 87% +$230

Tech

1% 70% -$8,599

Pop-Culture

1% 85% +$117

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

35 active days in 12wk • peak 315 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	+3,000	$2,530	92¢	$2.8K	+$245	08-09 17:51
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	No	+2,801	$1,675	64¢	$1.8K	+$132	07-14 10:46
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	No	+4,145	$1,645	35¢	$1.5K	-$194	07-14 16:44
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	+1,331	$1,314	100¢	$1.3K	+$15	08-07 06:57
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	+1,331	$1,326	100¢	$1.3K	+$4	08-07 06:57
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	No	+1,133	$974	99¢	$1.1K	+$148	08-07 06:57
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	+1,113	$1,080	100¢	$1.1K	+$31	08-07 06:57
Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?	No	+1,232	$946	86¢	$1.1K	+$114	09-02 20:12
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No	+826	$815	100¢	$824	+$9	07-09 11:21
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	+1,010	$620	74¢	$753	+$133	10-29 17:35
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	No	+992	$804	72¢	$719	-$84	07-12 10:52
Will the Republicans win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?	No	+599	$562	98¢	$585	+$23	10-29 17:25
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	+570	$569	100¢	$569	$0	10-29 08:38
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	+570	$568	100¢	$567	$0	10-29 08:38
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	+570	$557	98¢	$559	+$2	10-29 08:38
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	-1,404	-$585	36¢	$-499	+$87	07-15 15:03
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	+730	$318	68¢	$493	+$175	07-18 03:02
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	No	+570	$452	78¢	$447	-$5	10-29 08:38
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No	+826	$715	51¢	$425	-$291	07-09 11:21
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No	+826	$113	50¢	$409	+$296	07-09 11:21
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	No	+569	$336	71¢	$404	+$68	08-07 03:44
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	+611	$381	60¢	$364	-$17	08-13 04:21
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	No	+440	$235	80¢	$354	+$119	07-02 04:24
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	+500	$245	70¢	$352	+$108	08-06 16:45
Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?	No	+490	$433	70¢	$341	-$93	08-17 15:15
Will the Republican Party win the AL-02 House seat?	No	+625	$554	45¢	$281	-$272	04-30 22:07
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	No	+1,000	$180	28¢	$275	+$95	07-12 10:52
Will Real Sociedad win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?	No	+268	$267	100¢	$268	+$0	07-27 22:06
Will Betis win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?	No	+268	$267	100¢	$268	+$0	07-27 22:06
Will Racing Santander win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?	No	+268	$268	100¢	$268	$0	07-27 22:06

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	561	$115.5K	115,848	3,194	+112,654	No	+$319	01-26 16:36
fed increases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	434	$88.7K	88,769	23,578	+65,191	No	+$135	01-26 16:46
fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	462	$82.3K	86,327	2,648	+83,679	No	+$4,250	01-26 16:35
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai?	486	$50.2K	50,658	2,991	+47,667	No	+$493	04-06 15:56
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány?	472	$49.9K	50,180	6,532	+43,648	No	+$305	04-12 08:13
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár?	459	$47.9K	47,971	8,503	+39,468	No	+$68	04-10 12:04
will trn cm t be the next president of vietnam	570	$42.4K	42,709	2,202	+40,507	No	+$357	04-05 08:02
will trn thanh mn be the next president of vietnam	555	$39.3K	40,046	1,974	+38,072	No	+$796	04-05 08:02
will phan vn giang be the next president of vietnam	559	$35.9K	40,601	1,659	+38,943	No	+$5,053	04-05 08:02
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Klára Dobrev?	366	$35.3K	35,316	7,003	+28,313	No	+$45	03-21 08:59
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	511	$32.9K	52,062	338	+51,724	No	+$19,359	04-12 08:13
will lng cng be the next president of vietnam	405	$27.5K	27,567	15,489	+12,078	No	+$107	03-25 16:09
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	112	$23.2K	23,564	398	+23,166	No	+$352	04-07 01:44
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	112	$23.2K	23,564	397	+23,168	No	+$359	04-07 01:44
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	538	$20.8K	51,588	1,931	+49,658	Yes	-$20,403	04-12 08:13
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	113	$20.0K	22,322	426	+21,896	No	+$2,390	04-07 01:44
will pheu thai party pt win the most seats in the 2026 thai legislative election	243	$19.1K	19,605	455	+19,150	No	+$542	02-08 12:53
will the total domestic gross for avatar fire and ash be between 440m and 480m by january 31	131	$14.3K	14,484	2,920	+11,564	No	+$152	01-24 10:48
will the momentum movement momentum win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	200	$14.2K	14,211	168	+14,043	No	+$19	03-31 23:42
will the total domestic gross for avatar fire and ash be between 400m and 440m by january 31	146	$12.9K	15,624	249	+15,375	No	+$2,733	01-25 08:36
will bhumjaithai party bjt win the most seats in the 2026 thai legislative election	247	$12.8K	18,242	1,201	+17,041	Yes	-$13,159	02-08 14:22
will the total domestic gross for avatar fire and ash be greater than 520m by january 31	125	$12.4K	12,395	5,102	+7,293	No	+$35	01-24 06:33
will the new england patriots win super bowl 2026	135	$11.9K	16,114	307	+15,807	No	+$4,383	02-08 20:54
will fideszkdnp win the most national list votes in the 2026 hungarian parliamentary election	70	$11.4K	14,066	7	+14,059	No	+$2,703	04-12 14:31
will fideszkdnp win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	224	$11.1K	16,613	58	+16,555	No	+$5,545	04-12 18:06
will apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31 756	156	$10.9K	11,013	182	+10,831	No	+$129	01-23 04:35
will alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31	157	$10.8K	11,111	206	+10,906	No	+$292	01-23 04:35
will the denver broncos win super bowl 2026	117	$10.6K	11,490	302	+11,188	No	+$935	01-25 22:56
will nguyn duy ngc be the next president of vietnam	222	$10.2K	10,180	35,894	-25,714	No	+$63	04-05 13:02
will microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31 115	141	$9.8K	9,832	1,484	+8,348	No	+$17	01-23 20:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 19:41:46	Will the Republican Party win the CA-43 House seat?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xe6c4c5…
10-29 19:41:43	Will the Democratic Party win the CA-43 House seat?	No	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0xd2f7d4…
10-29 19:25:48	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.7% in October?	Yes	SELL	49	3¢	$2	0xce707f…
10-29 17:55:44	Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	41	3¢	$1	0xe79df5…
10-29 17:55:43	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	41	97¢	$40	0x0cabeb…
10-29 17:35:26	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	200	73¢	$146	0x1f3cac…
10-29 17:35:25	Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	200	26¢	$52	0x0f735c…
10-29 17:25:14	Will the Republicans win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x131679…
10-29 17:25:13	Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0xe5f7ea…
10-29 17:14:01	Will Seyi Makinde win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	185	0¢	$1	0xe91ed6…
10-29 11:46:04	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.9% in October?	Yes	SELL	3	3¢	$0	0xe4b6fb…
10-29 11:46:04	Will Core CPI YoY be 3.0% in October?	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0xcf7291…
10-29 11:46:04	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.2% or less in October?	Yes	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0xb5381d…
10-29 11:00:37	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in October?	Yes	SELL	14	73¢	$10	0x680366…
10-29 08:38:25	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	190	98¢	$186	0x9e18be…
10-29 08:38:25	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	190	100¢	$189	0x76d089…
10-29 08:38:25	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	190	24¢	$46	0x357e04…
10-29 08:38:25	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	190	100¢	$190	0x2b1128…
10-29 08:38:23	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	190	78¢	$148	0xc0055a…
10-29 08:05:34	will candidate c win the 2027 nigerian presidential election 20260602163030953	Yes	SELL	185	0¢	$0	0x26c1ec…
10-29 08:05:32	will candidate a win the 2027 nigerian presidential election 20260602163030951	Yes	SELL	185	0¢	$1	0x18b901…
10-29 07:41:31	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.7% in October?	Yes	SELL	17	4¢	$1	0xce591c…
10-29 07:41:31	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.2% or less in October?	Yes	SELL	3	3¢	$0	0x5063a4…
10-29 07:41:31	Will Core CPI YoY be 3.0% in October?	Yes	SELL	17	4¢	$1	0x255296…
10-29 07:13:47	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	190	24¢	$46	0xfd66e8…
10-29 07:13:47	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	190	100¢	$189	0x658d4d…
10-29 07:13:47	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	190	100¢	$190	0x3d4785…
10-29 07:13:47	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	190	98¢	$186	0x3c6e14…
10-29 07:13:46	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	190	79¢	$150	0x628b0e…
10-29 06:05:58	Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?	No	BUY	42	35¢	$15	0xed3adf…
10-29 06:05:55	Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?	No	BUY	42	64¢	$27	0x70d09a…
10-29 05:08:49	Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?	No	BUY	106	4¢	$4	0x0d54c3…
10-29 05:08:47	Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	106	95¢	$100	0x45c062…
10-29 01:23:41	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in October?	No	BUY	66	100¢	$66	0xe590ee…
10-29 01:23:41	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.8% in October?	No	BUY	66	100¢	$66	0xcc6f17…
10-29 01:23:41	Will Core CPI YoY be 3.1% or more in October?	No	BUY	66	100¢	$66	0xc98034…
10-29 01:23:41	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.3% in October?	No	BUY	66	99¢	$66	0x580649…
10-29 01:23:38	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.5% in October?	No	BUY	66	94¢	$62	0x304271…
10-28 18:36:49	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	190	100¢	$189	0xf406bb…
10-28 18:36:49	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	190	98¢	$186	0x4fcc0e…
10-28 18:36:47	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	190	21¢	$40	0xc8d72b…
10-28 18:36:47	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	190	100¢	$189	0x170614…
10-28 18:36:46	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	190	81¢	$154	0x2c8ba3…
10-28 17:49:40	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on October 29?	Yes	SELL	15	0¢	$0	0xeb6000…
10-28 16:40:22	Exact Score: FC Bayern München 4 - 1 1. FC Magdeburg?	No	BUY	25	94¢	$23	0xef994b…
10-28 16:40:22	Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 2 1. FC Magdeburg?	No	BUY	25	98¢	$24	0xbaa17e…
10-28 16:40:22	Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 1 1. FC Magdeburg?	No	BUY	25	94¢	$24	0xb8c5ae…
10-28 16:40:22	Exact Score: FC Bayern München 4 - 0 1. FC Magdeburg?	No	BUY	25	92¢	$23	0xb78fa8…
10-28 16:40:22	Exact Score: FC Bayern München 1 - 1 1. FC Magdeburg?	No	BUY	25	98¢	$24	0x9acb70…
10-28 16:40:22	Exact Score: FC Bayern München 5 - 1 1. FC Magdeburg?	No	BUY	25	95¢	$24	0x94659c…
10-28 16:40:22	Exact Score: FC Bayern München 5 - 0 1. FC Magdeburg?	No	BUY	25	93¢	$23	0x70bedf…
10-28 16:40:22	Exact Score: FC Bayern München 4 - 2 1. FC Magdeburg?	No	BUY	25	98¢	$24	0x6bc192…
10-28 16:40:22	Exact Score: FC Bayern München 1 - 0 1. FC Magdeburg?	No	BUY	25	97¢	$24	0x3e2a52…
10-28 16:40:22	Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 0 1. FC Magdeburg?	No	BUY	25	92¢	$23	0x2159f9…
10-28 16:40:22	Exact Score: FC Bayern München 2 - 0 1. FC Magdeburg?	No	BUY	25	95¢	$24	0x13356c…
10-28 16:40:22	Exact Score: FC Bayern München 2 - 2 1. FC Magdeburg?	No	BUY	25	98¢	$25	0x10aa2c…
10-28 16:40:22	Exact Score: FC Bayern München 2 - 1 1. FC Magdeburg?	No	BUY	25	96¢	$24	0x0742f5…
10-28 16:40:17	Exact Score: Any Other Score?	No	BUY	25	54¢	$14	0xd26196…
10-28 16:25:11	Will the Republican Party win the SC-06 House seat?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x611a14…
10-28 16:25:08	Will the Democratic Party win the SC-06 House seat?	No	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x765849…
10-28 14:04:01	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on October 29?	Yes	SELL	15	3¢	$0	0xfda044…
10-28 14:01:49	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	560	0¢	$2	0x109b65…
10-28 14:01:47	Will Todd Achilles win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	3¢	$1	0x6e8154…
10-28 14:01:47	Will Todd Achilles win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	32	3¢	$1	0x3a23c8…
10-27 12:54:09	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on October 29?	Yes	SELL	15	50¢	$7	0x25983e…
10-27 10:38:36	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on October 29?	No	BUY	4	75¢	$3	0xf5b0dc…
10-27 08:26:00	lowest temperature in hong kong on october 29 2026 25c	No	BUY	12	61¢	$7	0x9b03a1…
10-27 08:25:59	lowest temperature in hong kong on october 29 2026 25c	No	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0x377a9b…
10-27 06:28:35	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Arkansas gubernatorial election by 20%-25%?	No	BUY	1	52¢	$1	0xd0bcd6…
10-27 05:53:14	Will Zach LaVine play for the Phoenix Suns in 2026-27?	Yes	SELL	11	0¢	$0	0x85b832…
10-27 05:51:12	Will Z.ai be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	33	0¢	$0	0x331ab8…
10-27 04:27:17	Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	95	70¢	$66	0xae1a2c…
10-27 04:27:15	Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	95	29¢	$28	0xf78a66…
10-27 01:01:02	Will Stephen Cuthbertson win the 2026 Kingston mayoral election?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x7f2576…
10-27 01:01:02	Will Grant William Bedard win the 2026 Kingston mayoral election?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x3adbe9…
10-27 01:01:02	Will Bryan Paterson win the 2026 Kingston mayoral election?	No	BUY	19	20¢	$4	0x28c892…
10-27 01:00:59	Will Conny Glenn win the 2026 Kingston mayoral election?	No	BUY	19	77¢	$15	0x7767c2…
10-26 23:34:15	Will Galatasaray win the 2026-27 Süper Lig?	Yes	SELL	8	45¢	$4	0x05df0d…
10-26 20:27:20	Will Michael Olise finish 5th in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	8	10¢	$1	0x038204…
10-26 20:13:38	Will Lionel Messi finish 5th in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	8	73¢	$6	0x539de2…
10-26 19:53:06	Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia finish 5th in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	8	88¢	$7	0xb5d45e…
10-26 19:53:06	Will Ousmane Dembélé finish 5th in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0x900405…
10-26 19:53:05	Will Rodri finish 5th in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	8	88¢	$7	0x63668f…
10-26 17:12:54	Will Mistral be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x836a28…
10-26 16:56:26	Will Carlos Coronel win 2026 MLS Goalkeeper of the Year?	Yes	SELL	18	1¢	$0	0x3e969c…
10-26 16:52:42	Will DeepSeek be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0xa18989…
10-26 16:52:42	Will DeepSeek have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	33	0¢	$0	0x8bbf97…
10-21 21:51:50	Will MrBeast's next video get between 123 and 125 million views on day 5?	No	BUY	36	31¢	$11	0xda6a70…
10-21 19:57:32	Will the Republicans win the Colorado Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	250	99¢	$248	0x510a53…
10-21 19:57:30	Will the Democrats win the Colorado Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	250	0¢	$1	0x6fb171…
10-21 19:35:45	Will Galatasaray win the 2026-27 Süper Lig?	Yes	SELL	11	47¢	$5	0xe9af77…
10-21 17:59:53	Will the Democratic Party win the FL-15 House seat?	Yes	SELL	62	4¢	$2	0xbd0ee2…
10-21 17:22:15	Will the Democratic Party win the TX-38 House seat?	Yes	SELL	24	4¢	$1	0x399bd4…
10-21 12:55:18	Will James Pantemis win 2026 MLS Goalkeeper of the Year?	Yes	SELL	9	1¢	$0	0x798159…
10-21 10:53:32	Will Russell Westbrook play for the LA Clippers in 2026-27?	Yes	SELL	7	0¢	$0	0xd55d36…
10-21 10:53:29	Will Russell Westbrook play for the Charlotte Hornets in 2026-27?	Yes	SELL	7	0¢	$0	0x000064…
10-21 10:53:24	Will Russell Westbrook play for the Dallas Mavericks in 2026-27?	Yes	SELL	7	0¢	$0	0x2a2bbc…
10-21 10:53:23	Will Russell Westbrook play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27?	Yes	SELL	7	0¢	$0	0x40ac7d…
10-21 10:53:15	Will Russell Westbrook play for the Brooklyn Nets in 2026-27?	Yes	SELL	7	0¢	$0	0x2135de…
10-21 10:53:11	Will Russell Westbrook play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?	Yes	SELL	7	0¢	$0	0xb201b9…