Average-Jellyfish — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$15

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

77.4%

Resolved

160

Trades

260

lifetime

Volume

$2.04K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-06-01

last 08-21 18:37

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 49 days

Categories

Other

67% 80% -$23

Politics

16% 84% +$12

Tech

10% 38% -$25

Sports

6% 75% +$20

Pop-Culture

1% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

11 active days in 12wk • peak 35 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	2	$102	52	52	+0	No	+$2	07-30 01:15
ufc max1 con 2026 07 11	1	$58	84	0	+84	Max Holloway	+$25	07-11 09:48
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)?	1	$56	59	0	+59	Yes	+$3	06-01 20:10
atp sinner zverev 2026 07 12	1	$50	62	0	+62	Jannik Sinner	+$12	07-12 06:32
will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 30 2026	2	$41	21	21	+0	No	+$1	07-30 22:05
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?	2	$41	22	22	+0	Yes	+$1	07-19 21:51
tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	4	$40	40	40	+0	No	$0	08-10 04:49
Will the median home value in Miami be between $1,089,000 and $1,125,000 on September 30?	4	$40	40	40	+0	No	+$0	08-15 00:57
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	4	$40	40	40	+0	open	—	08-21 18:37
Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026?	4	$40	40	40	+0	Yes	+$0	08-10 04:50
Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be less than $1,176,000 on September 30?	4	$39	40	40	+0	Yes	-$1	08-12 21:06
will france send warships through the strait of hormuz by july 31 2026 20260701001952740	3	$36	18	18	+0	No	+$0	07-31 07:00
Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,176,000 and $1,198,000 on September 30?	2	$26	20	20	+0	No	-$2	08-13 08:35
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	2	$23	13	13	+0	Yes	+$3	07-29 19:08
iran military action against a gulf state on july 26 20260708212322951	2	$23	12	12	+0	No	+$1	07-29 22:46
Will Kevin Steele be the FL-14 Republican nominee?	2	$22	20	20	+0	No	$0	08-14 20:44
Will Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between 0.3% and 0.5%?	2	$21	20	20	+0	Yes	-$2	08-13 08:33
Will claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on August 24, 2026?	2	$21	21	21	+0	No	-$20	08-21 18:37
wnba las tor 2026 07 20	2	$20	10	10	+0	Las Vegas Aces	+$0	07-21 02:28
Will Mohammed bin Salman attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	08-13 20:10
Will claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on August 17, 2026?	2	$20	11	11	+0	Yes	-$1	08-13 20:10
Will Chris Hipkins be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?	2	$20	20	20	+0	open	—	08-13 08:35
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	2	$20	10	10	+0	Yes	+$0	07-20 19:33
mlb lad phi 2026 07 22	1	$20	20	0	+20	Los Angeles Dodgers	+$0	07-23 01:26
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting?	1	$20	20	0	+20	No	+$0	07-20 06:35
Will Drake attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	+$0	08-13 20:10
todd blanche confirmed as attorney general by august 30 20260608213258431	3	$20	40	0	+40	Yes	+$0	08-08 06:48
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?	2	$20	10	10	+0	Yes	$0	07-20 19:33
nato x russia military clash by august 31 2026	2	$19	10	10	+0	No	+$0	08-13 20:10
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?	3	$18	20	20	+0	Yes	$0	07-22 18:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-21 18:37:18	will iran target a arab country on august 18 2026 20260801004719135	No	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0x6562c1…
08-21 18:37:13	Will claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on August 24, 2026?	Yes	SELL	21	2¢	$0	0x99e08a…
08-21 18:37:10	will a hurricane make landfall in hawaii before 2027 20260721182828397	Yes	SELL	20	9¢	$2	0x095a20…
08-21 18:37:03	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Yes	SELL	20	18¢	$4	0x0d3b54…
08-21 18:37:00	will eisenkot join the bennett lapid alliance by august 31 2026 20260628215113848	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0xce8ba1…
08-21 18:36:57	Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma?	Yes	SELL	6	92¢	$6	0x32dc77…
08-21 18:36:49	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	No	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x2a24b1…
08-21 18:36:45	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 21 2026	No	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x022ad4…
08-21 18:36:34	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	SELL	20	81¢	$16	0xc27a8d…
08-17 18:26:07	will enes kanter freedom be drafted 2027 wnba draft	Yes	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0x28f7fd…
08-17 14:36:57	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0x86df05…
08-17 14:00:33	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0xb48676…
08-17 09:09:33	will enes kanter freedom be drafted 2027 wnba draft	Yes	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0x96ff4d…
08-17 00:06:34	will eisenkot join the bennett lapid alliance by august 31 2026 20260628215113848	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x27f0b8…
08-16 23:12:55	Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 72m?	Yes	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xa30618…
08-16 20:27:40	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	No	BUY	6	95¢	$6	0xbc4966…
08-16 02:06:37	Will "The End of Oak Street" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 20m?	No	BUY	7	95¢	$6	0x6c0c43…
08-16 02:02:58	Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?	No	SELL	20	17¢	$3	0xaa2828…
08-16 01:24:37	Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	20	33¢	$7	0xdb740f…
08-15 20:11:18	Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of August 22?	Yes	BUY	8	95¢	$7	0x71022f…
08-15 05:33:54	Will "The End of Oak Street" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 23m and 26m?	No	BUY	7	95¢	$7	0xc2522a…
08-15 01:11:22	Will "Tires: Season 3" be the top US Netflix show this week?	No	BUY	8	95¢	$7	0xdae684…
08-15 00:57:55	Will the median home value in Miami be between $1,089,000 and $1,125,000 on September 30?	No	SELL	20	44¢	$9	0xa8f42a…
08-15 00:57:52	Will the median home value in Miami be between $1,089,000 and $1,125,000 on September 30?	Yes	SELL	20	55¢	$11	0x0e78aa…
08-14 23:01:48	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 21 2026	No	BUY	6	97¢	$6	0xb95b0b…
08-14 21:37:36	will a hurricane make landfall in hawaii before 2027 20260721182828397	Yes	BUY	20	65¢	$13	0x16a6a3…
08-14 20:44:57	Will Kevin Steele be the FL-14 Republican nominee?	Yes	SELL	20	53¢	$11	0x31636f…
08-14 20:44:36	will the end of oak street score at least 86 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer	No	BUY	7	96¢	$7	0x7391e0…
08-14 20:39:13	will iran target a arab country on august 18 2026 20260801004719135	No	BUY	8	95¢	$8	0x82b8fb…
08-14 09:23:46	Will Kevin Steele be the FL-14 Republican nominee?	Yes	BUY	20	55¢	$11	0xcc8d9e…
08-14 04:19:54	Will "My Life With the Walter Boys: Season 3" be the top US Netflix show this week?	Yes	BUY	12	95¢	$12	0x098779…
08-14 04:18:18	ukraine strikes another vessel in the black sea by august 15 2026 20260804183343485	Yes	BUY	14	95¢	$13	0x910276…
08-14 02:57:25	us iran hormuz agreement by august 15 20260804222025506 211	No	BUY	15	95¢	$15	0xc58a96…
08-14 02:51:06	Will Javokhir Sindarov Win the Sinquefield Cup?	No	BUY	17	95¢	$16	0x30b2db…
08-13 22:36:51	Will Randy Fine be the Republican nominee for FL-06?	Yes	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0xd18bdf…
08-13 22:08:10	Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma?	Yes	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0xd94609…
08-13 22:07:06	Will claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on August 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0x7bad7f…
08-13 20:10:57	Will Russell Fry be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x0c7ebe…
08-13 20:10:54	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 15?	No	SELL	7	95¢	$7	0x788a40…
08-13 20:10:49	NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0xe34eeb…
08-13 20:10:45	Iran full airspace closure by August 15?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xe50587…
08-13 20:10:42	Will "PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 15m?	No	SELL	7	95¢	$7	0xcdb9b7…
08-13 20:10:37	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x224f86…
08-13 20:10:34	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?	No	SELL	7	97¢	$7	0x8f474c…
08-13 20:10:33	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?	No	SELL	7	96¢	$6	0xbaa64b…
08-13 20:10:30	Will Mohammed bin Salman attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x4df092…
08-13 20:10:27	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 14, 2026?	No	SELL	7	97¢	$7	0x648dc5…
08-13 20:10:24	Will there be no next High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2026?	No	SELL	20	23¢	$5	0x9ed5d1…
08-13 20:10:21	Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?	No	SELL	6	6¢	$0	0x14b0ff…
08-13 20:10:19	Will Željka Cvijanović be the Serb Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election?	No	SELL	20	12¢	$2	0x0f4542…
08-13 20:10:15	Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?	No	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0xa46956…
08-13 20:10:13	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 13, 2026?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x4286c4…
08-13 20:10:09	Will Drake attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xbeeb77…
08-13 20:10:06	Will claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on August 17, 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	83¢	$9	0x0888ed…
08-13 16:37:30	Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?	No	BUY	1	6¢	$0	0xfe7c36…
08-13 16:05:18	Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?	No	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0x55d9b1…
08-13 10:06:48	Will there be no next High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2026?	No	BUY	20	33¢	$7	0x211d49…
08-13 08:44:58	Will claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on August 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	96¢	$11	0x95aa0e…
08-13 08:37:21	Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election?	No	SELL	20	16¢	$3	0x5b1554…
08-13 08:36:54	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	No	SELL	20	35¢	$7	0x266f7d…
08-13 08:35:49	Will Chris Hipkins be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?	No	SELL	20	48¢	$10	0xd88d10…
08-13 08:35:45	Will Charlie Crist win the St. Petersburg mayoral election?	No	SELL	20	12¢	$2	0x75f850…
08-13 08:35:21	Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,176,000 and $1,198,000 on September 30?	No	SELL	20	61¢	$12	0x6245f2…
08-13 08:35:06	Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of August 2026?	No	SELL	20	7¢	$1	0xb9d9aa…
08-13 08:34:33	Will “The Traitors” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding reality/competition series?	No	SELL	20	18¢	$4	0xe59a50…
08-13 08:33:09	Will Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between 0.3% and 0.5%?	No	SELL	20	48¢	$10	0x5ac5f5…
08-13 07:01:24	Will Charlie Crist win the St. Petersburg mayoral election?	No	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0x4452e8…
08-13 04:15:18	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	7	96¢	$7	0x29b0a0…
08-13 04:05:15	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 12 2026	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x6c77a5…
08-12 21:06:10	Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be less than $1,176,000 on September 30?	Yes	SELL	20	40¢	$8	0x478304…
08-12 21:06:06	Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be less than $1,176,000 on September 30?	No	SELL	20	55¢	$11	0x254585…
08-12 19:10:51	untitled market 1 20260803235754057	No	BUY	7	96¢	$6	0xdaac99…
08-12 19:05:33	will russia capture kostyantynivka by august 15	No	BUY	7	95¢	$7	0x867331…
08-12 15:18:49	Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	No	BUY	20	39¢	$8	0xec6d93…
08-12 08:19:01	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 13 20260807213124702	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0xf2272c…
08-12 08:18:30	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 14 2026	No	BUY	7	95¢	$6	0x546c97…
08-12 07:46:49	Will "PAW Patrol: The Dino Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 15m?	No	BUY	7	96¢	$7	0x2c6bed…
08-12 02:59:24	Will Chris Hipkins be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?	No	BUY	20	53¢	$11	0xbdfedd…
08-10 23:08:06	iran full airspace closure by august 15	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x8924c8…
08-10 23:07:27	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 13 2026	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x963ca9…
08-10 09:53:03	Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	20	14¢	$3	0x8daf8b…
08-10 04:50:37	Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026?	No	SELL	20	20¢	$4	0xdf6732…
08-10 04:50:31	Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	79¢	$16	0xd8fd6f…
08-10 04:49:39	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	Yes	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0x91f5ff…
08-10 04:49:34	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	No	SELL	20	95¢	$19	0xb3598b…
08-10 04:43:27	will russia and ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xd3c123…
08-10 04:42:55	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.0% or less in July?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xb53c8a…
08-10 04:39:25	Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 3 - August 9?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xd35795…
08-10 04:39:18	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 9 2026	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x38884c…
08-10 01:36:43	Will PPI YoY be 5.2% in July?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x857f47…
08-10 00:35:49	Will Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth rate (QoQ) be between 0.3% and 0.5%?	No	BUY	20	58¢	$12	0xa42509…
08-10 00:34:57	Will monthly inflation decrease by 0.1% in July?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xd3438c…
08-09 23:42:48	Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 3 - August 9?	Yes	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x3e0d1b…
08-09 23:18:57	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 12 2026	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xe6ec3c…
08-09 09:44:36	Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 3-August 9?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xfe8a45…
08-09 01:00:57	Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0xa31814…
08-08 23:52:15	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 9 2026	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xf2a32e…
08-08 23:51:45	Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 130m and 140m?	No	BUY	6	95¢	$6	0x443bd7…
08-08 12:36:19	Will "72 Hours" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?	Yes	BUY	6	95¢	$6	0xc4ee8b…
08-08 12:35:51	Will "The Last House" be the top global Netflix movie this week?	Yes	BUY	7	95¢	$7	0xf96e37…