Responsible-Newsletter — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$4

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

78.5%

Resolved

442

Trades

875

lifetime

Volume

$11.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-15

last 10-19 18:34

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 130 days

Categories

Other

75% 81% +$2

Crypto

19% 89% +$2

Politics

3% 75% +$0

Sports

2% 40% $0

Tech

1% 50% $0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

41 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on July 22?	5	$82	41	41	+0	No	+$0	07-22 12:02
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?	4	$74	37	37	+0	No	$0	07-21 17:25
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C on July 19?	2	$70	35	35	+0	No	+$0	07-19 07:01
bitcoin above 62k on july 25 2026	2	$69	35	35	+0	Yes	+$0	07-25 08:43
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on July 27?	5	$69	35	35	+0	No	+$0	07-26 09:56
will lee cronins the mummy score at least 35 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer	3	$69	34	34	+0	Yes	$0	04-19 18:31
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on July 21?	2	$67	34	34	+0	No	$0	07-20 23:27
will russia enter khatnie by july 31 2026	2	$67	33	33	+0	No	+$0	07-30 09:11
xrp above 1pt3 on july 23 2026	2	$65	32	32	+0	No	+$0	07-23 04:04
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on July 20?	3	$65	32	32	+0	No	+$0	07-20 08:33
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C or below on May 27?	7	$65	32	32	+0	No	$0	05-26 17:37
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C or below on July 23?	2	$63	32	32	+0	No	$0	07-22 21:52
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 91°F or below on July 28?	3	$63	32	32	+0	No	$0	07-28 01:04
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 95°F or below on July 28?	5	$63	32	32	+0	No	+$0	07-28 11:35
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on July 21?	3	$63	32	32	+0	No	+$0	07-21 11:15
Will Imperium Europa win the third-most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2026 Maltese general election?	7	$62	31	31	+0	No	+$0	05-31 16:41
Will Jude Bellingham win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$62	31	31	+0	No	$0	07-19 07:02
bitcoin above 70k on july 24 2026	2	$61	31	31	+0	No	+$0	07-23 18:12
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 28?	2	$61	31	31	+0	No	+$0	07-27 02:31
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 13?	2	$61	30	30	+0	No	+$0	10-12 10:30
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 75°F or below on July 24?	7	$60	30	30	+0	No	+$0	07-24 16:27
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$60	30	30	+0	No	$0	06-26 16:04
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 87°F or below on July 25?	5	$60	30	30	+0	No	+$0	07-24 22:21
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?	2	$60	30	30	+0	No	$0	07-26 21:22
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on July 23?	2	$59	29	29	+0	No	+$0	07-23 09:52
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 90-91°F on July 26?	2	$59	29	29	+0	No	$0	07-25 18:05
ethereum above 2100 on july 23 2026	2	$58	29	29	+0	No	+$0	07-23 04:19
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 37°C on July 11?	5	$57	29	29	+0	No	+$0	07-10 13:48
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 54-55°F on May 15?	7	$57	29	29	+0	No	+$0	05-15 11:12
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 27°C on July 30?	2	$57	28	28	+0	No	+$0	07-29 12:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-19 18:34:20	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on October 20?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0xe74845…
10-18 21:07:00	Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 October 12-18?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xf85666…
10-16 07:53:49	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on October 16?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xcc3bbe…
10-13 14:28:05	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 25°C or higher on October 14?	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0xbf65b0…
10-13 09:20:08	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 25°C or higher on October 14?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xd57d57…
10-12 10:30:12	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 13?	No	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0x6bc25e…
10-12 07:55:58	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 13?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x53bd30…
10-12 01:43:36	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026?	No	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0xac9c00…
10-12 01:42:00	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on October 12?	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0xdfe0c6…
10-12 00:14:20	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0xebd02e…
10-11 20:31:55	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on October 12?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x5fbe33…
10-10 05:12:57	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on October 10?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x94f239…
10-07 18:41:55	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on October 8?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0xdad967…
10-05 09:39:02	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 25°C on October 5?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x956a66…
10-02 02:40:14	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on October 2?	Yes	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0xb0a5a5…
10-01 21:38:45	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on October 2?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x973898…
10-01 06:32:21	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on October 1?	No	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0x3f457c…
09-28 02:51:42	Will there be 7 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xab647e…
09-27 20:55:11	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 50+ bps at the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x42a783…
09-23 11:39:52	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 22°C on September 24?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x55f02c…
09-23 00:10:50	Will the South African Reserve Bank decrease the repo rate after the September meeting?	No	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0xf4dedf…
09-22 22:06:59	Will Nneka Ogwumike have the highest rebounds per game in the WNBA 2026 regular season?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x136717…
09-22 13:23:09	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on September 23?	Yes	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xb18539…
09-22 11:58:33	Will Natasha Mack have the highest rebounds per game in the WNBA 2026 regular season?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$17	0x9b03dc…
09-22 00:39:58	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$28	0x4e6309…
09-18 22:04:15	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C on September 19?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf309a9…
09-18 00:51:03	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on September 18?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x675b16…
09-17 15:53:09	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on September 18?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xa1d817…
09-13 03:29:42	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on September 13?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xa107d5…
09-11 16:22:28	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on September 11?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x73b6e1…
09-11 16:21:03	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C or below on September 11?	No	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0xf07af7…
09-11 00:59:33	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on September 11?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x8b2040…
09-10 19:26:04	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C or below on September 11?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x1fe11a…
09-07 15:45:57	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C or below on September 8?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x9ead2d…
09-06 21:28:58	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on September 7?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x751cd4…
09-06 07:03:57	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 6?	Yes	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x93c400…
09-06 00:01:43	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on September 6?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x10bac5…
09-05 09:30:54	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on September 5?	Yes	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0x4219d8…
09-05 01:35:15	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on September 5?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x9dbcdc…
09-04 20:56:58	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on September 5?	No	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0x111d66…
09-04 13:41:31	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C or higher on September 5?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x6afb05…
09-04 08:35:10	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on September 4?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x9a8a33…
09-03 22:54:06	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on September 4?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xda2ba6…
09-03 13:36:09	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on September 4?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xb1ce79…
09-03 10:27:10	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on September 3?	Yes	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0xa41a8d…
09-03 01:44:24	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on September 3?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$15	0xbae4c6…
09-02 18:34:55	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C on September 3?	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x63565a…
09-02 10:06:31	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 31 to September 2, 2026?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$16	0x6bf6ce…
09-02 08:01:43	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 84°F or higher on September 2?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x339e18…
09-02 00:00:16	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 84°F or higher on September 2?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x038b2f…
09-01 07:02:22	bitcoin above 74k on september 1 2026	Yes	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x05b161…
09-01 01:17:33	Will Epic Games have the highest private market valuation on August 31?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x305a06…
08-31 03:26:33	Will Meta have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0x045f1f…
08-31 01:40:07	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 31?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0xf122aa…
08-31 00:01:21	Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in August?	No	BUY	34	100¢	$33	0x98049e…
08-30 09:49:40	bitcoin above 74k on august 30 2026	Yes	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0xb0301a…
08-30 01:59:42	ethereum above 2600 on august 30 2026	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xad4cc0…
08-29 19:25:58	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 37°C on August 30?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xb36987…
08-29 07:26:21	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 37°C on August 29?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x859d73…
08-29 06:56:45	Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 37°C on August 29?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0xa1b767…
08-28 21:36:19	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on August 29?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xd2c8cb…
08-27 10:05:16	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C or below on August 28?	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x18b8d7…
08-27 05:59:49	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 28?	Yes	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x363022…
08-26 22:26:18	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on August 27?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x69be59…
08-26 19:05:30	bitcoin above 84k on august 27 2026	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x2d39f4…
08-26 12:45:19	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on August 27?	No	BUY	33	100¢	$33	0x5dcb91…
08-26 03:10:46	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on August 26?	Yes	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x8c2fc8…
08-25 12:50:24	Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $74,000 on August 25?	Yes	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xafd60d…
08-25 05:24:06	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on August 25?	Yes	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xc9a770…
08-24 22:37:09	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on August 25?	Yes	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x6246a6…
08-24 14:05:58	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 25?	Yes	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x65418d…
08-24 12:02:19	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on August 25?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$12	0x7732e7…
08-23 23:55:45	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C or higher on August 25?	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x889bf6…
08-23 17:42:33	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on August 24?	Yes	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0xe6e09d…
08-14 09:39:33	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on August 14?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0xad369c…
08-13 17:54:31	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on August 14?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xfcdffb…
08-13 17:17:22	bitcoin above 58k on august 14 2026	Yes	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0x0b0b7c…
08-13 10:16:07	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on August 14?	No	BUY	26	100¢	$26	0x2ec986…
08-13 07:00:58	Will the price of XRP be between $0.80 and $0.90 on August 13?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xfe2f7a…
08-12 21:26:19	bitcoin above 66k on august 13 2026	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x6d274c…
08-12 08:20:15	bitcoin above 60k on august 12 2026	Yes	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x4116b2…
08-12 05:18:37	bitcoin above 58k on august 13 2026	Yes	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xb5ac46…
08-11 23:25:37	Will Mark Lynch place second in first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0x0e9f0d…
08-11 14:50:18	Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on August 11?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x9b2aa2…
08-11 13:05:07	Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on August 11?	No	BUY	34	100¢	$33	0xa854fe…
08-10 23:43:39	Will the highest temperature in Austin be 108°F or higher on August 11?	No	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0x4fe38a…
08-10 19:13:10	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on August 11?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x646955…
08-10 14:11:09	ethereum above 1800 on august 10 2026	Yes	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x01c695…
08-10 12:27:15	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on August 11?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0xa52942…
08-09 11:55:16	Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x618e76…
08-09 10:23:24	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on August 9?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xa8c1e8…
08-09 05:10:06	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on August 9?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x5a972a…
08-09 02:17:34	will ethereum dip to 1600 august 3 9 2026	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x1db955…
08-08 17:46:55	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C or below on August 9?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x3627b3…
08-08 06:15:42	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on August 8?	No	BUY	28	100¢	$28	0x537709…
08-08 04:11:58	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on August 8?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xb3c640…
08-08 01:16:00	will ethereum dip to 1850 on august 7	No	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x5b96ea…
08-07 20:21:37	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on August 8?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x02fa91…
08-07 17:09:52	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 7 2026	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xb91921…
08-07 12:19:42	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 41°C or higher on August 8?	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x19c015…