Distorted-Bonding — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$14.6K

Unrealized P&L

+$8

Hit rate

57.2%

Resolved

13,569

Trades

44,104

lifetime

Volume

$517.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

$73

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-29 01:54

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 215 days

Categories

Crypto

73% 48% -$19,232

Other

20% 40% +$2,168

Sports

7% 48% +$2,465

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

37 active days in 12wk • peak 560 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Spread: Thunder (-6.5)	Mavericks	—	+85	$50	76¢	$65	+$15	10-29 01:46
Thunder vs. Mavericks: O/U 228.5	Under		+29	$15	29¢	$8	-$7	10-29 01:46

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
lol gen g2 2026 03 21 game3	3	$9.2K	7,632	7,632	+0	G2 Esports	+$6,098	03-21 15:29
nba den phx 2026 03 24	19	$7.3K	5,069	5,069	+0	Nuggets	+$985	03-25 07:35
lol g2 blg 2026 03 22	29	$6.5K	19,000	14,000	+5,000	Bilibili Gaming	-$460	03-22 16:07
nba den phx 2026 03 24 spread away 5pt5	28	$6.5K	4,499	4,499	+0	Suns	+$2,485	03-25 07:34
lol gen g2 2026 03 21	2	$5.8K	10,000	10,000	+0	G2 Esports	+$4,904	03-21 14:54
cs2 nrg furia 2026 03 22	29	$5.4K	11,000	5,000	+6,000	FURIA	-$1,197	03-22 16:35
nba hou min 2026 03 25 spread away 2pt5	4	$4.7K	3,000	3,000	+0	Timberwolves	+$1,257	03-26 06:10
bitcoin up or down march 25 2026 3am et	66	$3.3K	5,727	5,725	+2	Down	+$32	03-25 07:46
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-22 09:10 UTC	85	$2.7K	2,000	2,000	+0	Up	+$1,149	03-22 09:14
lol ly lll 2026 03 17	13	$2.6K	6,875	3,125	+3,750	LYON	+$590	03-17 18:11
cs2 b8 nrg 2026 03 20 game2	3	$2.3K	1,500	1,500	+0	NRG	+$172	03-20 12:38
nba phi uta 2026 03 21	8	$2.1K	3,000	0	+3,000	76ers	+$900	03-22 03:33
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 12:45 UTC	23	$1.9K	1,200	1,000	+200	Down	+$72	03-27 12:49
bitcoin up or down march 24 2026 10pm et	43	$1.8K	2,000	2,000	+0	Down	+$1,000	03-25 02:42
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-25 09:15 UTC	146	$1.8K	3,000	0	+3,000	Up	-$800	03-25 09:19
cs2 vit aur1 2026 03 28	5	$1.7K	12,000	0	+12,000	Vitality	-$1,700	03-28 14:13
cs2 vit fal2 2026 01 24	15	$1.7K	1,500	1,500	+0	Team Falcons	+$662	01-24 18:01
bitcoin above 70k on february 9	25	$1.7K	4,987	4,987	+0	Yes	-$285	02-09 16:15
nba hou min 2026 03 25	2	$1.7K	3,090	0	+3,090	Timberwolves	-$1,659	03-26 02:52
nba okc bos 2026 03 25	11	$1.6K	3,000	0	+3,000	Celtics	-$1,640	03-26 01:04
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 11:40 UTC	24	$1.6K	1,000	1,000	+0	Up	+$371	03-27 11:44
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-27 15:15 UTC	28	$1.6K	1,000	988	+12	Down	+$403	03-27 15:19
cs2 nrg furia 2026 03 22 game2	10	$1.5K	10,000	0	+10,000	FURIA	-$1,500	03-22 15:38
lol g2 fox1 2026 03 20 game3	2	$1.3K	1,000	1,000	+0	G2 Esports	+$660	03-20 15:27
nfl ne den 2026 01 25 spread away 4pt5	4	$1.2K	800	800	+0	Broncos	+$359	01-26 00:44
cs2 mouz fut 2026 03 13	5	$1.2K	1,066	1,066	+0	FUT Esports	+$701	03-13 19:28
cs2 mouz mglz 2026 03 19 game2	2	$1.2K	1,000	1,000	+0	TheMongolz	+$250	03-19 18:26
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-24 16:00 UTC	14	$1.2K	644	644	+0	Down	+$46	04-24 16:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	2	$1.1K	2,390	0	+2,390	Down	-$1,139	05-25 19:04
elon musk of tweets february 2 february 4 65 89	21	$1.1K	773	773	+0	No	+$97	02-04 11:16

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 01:54:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xad3ea6…
10-29 01:52:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Up	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0xe7d3f9…
10-29 01:52:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Up	BUY	0	80¢	$0	0x9951ff…
10-29 01:52:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Up	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x70ab19…
10-29 01:52:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Up	BUY	23	80¢	$18	0x63263d…
10-29 01:52:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Up	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0x1e8e60…
10-29 01:46:52	Spread: Thunder (-6.5)	Mavericks	BUY	85	59¢	$50	0xc70a6a…
10-29 01:46:37	Thunder vs. Mavericks: O/U 228.5	Under	BUY	29	52¢	$15	0xaf08d6…
10-28 16:30:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Down	BUY	26	27¢	$7	0xcfef56…
10-28 16:30:25	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Up	BUY	14	78¢	$11	0x4f18b6…
10-28 16:15:26	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Up	BUY	24	36¢	$9	0x0d57e3…
10-28 16:15:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Down	BUY	14	64¢	$9	0x366dd8…
10-28 16:12:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	SELL	25	19¢	$5	0xd3255b…
10-28 16:12:11	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Down	SELL	14	70¢	$10	0x1d9f2f…
10-28 16:11:35	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Down	BUY	14	76¢	$11	0x5273ff…
10-28 16:11:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Up	BUY	25	27¢	$7	0xee8aeb…
10-28 16:07:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Down	SELL	13	27¢	$4	0x010333…
10-28 16:07:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Down	BUY	13	40¢	$5	0x27b288…
10-28 16:00:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Up	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0xd63851…
10-28 16:00:22	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Down	BUY	17	61¢	$11	0x2b3fd3…
10-28 15:53:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Down	SELL	14	75¢	$11	0x0d34ca…
10-28 15:51:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Down	BUY	14	72¢	$10	0x8fa585…
10-28 15:51:58	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Up	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0x4a315c…
10-28 15:19:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x202fb2…
10-28 15:16:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	BUY	28	71¢	$20	0x26377d…
10-28 15:13:26	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	31	64¢	$20	0x983c96…
10-28 14:52:52	Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FURIA (BO3) - PGL Masters Bucharest Group Stage	Liquid	BUY	100	16¢	$16	0x3d93d4…
10-28 14:46:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	104	48¢	$50	0x368800…
10-28 14:46:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Up	BUY	85	59¢	$50	0x48b08a…
10-28 14:37:14	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0x6849bf…
10-28 14:35:49	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Down	BUY	79	63¢	$50	0x44761a…
10-28 14:30:40	Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner	Liquid	BUY	30	42¢	$13	0xff6cae…
10-28 14:08:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	63	79¢	$50	0x4d11bc…
10-28 14:06:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Up	BUY	81	62¢	$50	0x1f26f4…
10-28 14:03:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	63	79¢	$50	0xa5a183…
10-28 14:02:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	17	60¢	$10	0x1c6c88…
10-28 14:01:53	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	14	72¢	$10	0x799b8b…
10-28 13:38:25	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Up	BUY	56	90¢	$50	0xc446cd…
10-28 13:31:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	83	60¢	$50	0x29cab1…
10-28 13:27:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	60	83¢	$50	0xde3433…
10-28 13:27:04	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	58	34¢	$20	0x14f341…
10-28 13:21:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Up	BUY	78	64¢	$50	0x859c5e…
10-28 13:21:41	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Down	BUY	50	40¢	$20	0x84e9b7…
10-28 13:16:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Down	BUY	119	42¢	$50	0x586373…
10-28 13:12:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	93	54¢	$50	0xf85e4a…
10-28 13:07:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	BUY	23	86¢	$20	0x52f085…
10-28 13:07:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	BUY	29	70¢	$20	0x80097f…
10-28 13:06:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	BUY	34	59¢	$20	0xfcff63…
10-28 13:06:44	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	BUY	32	62¢	$20	0x599fdb…
10-28 13:06:25	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0xac9c37…
10-28 13:06:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0xde8022…
10-28 13:02:28	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	BUY	31	64¢	$20	0x9afab8…
10-28 13:02:13	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Up	BUY	23	43¢	$10	0xa874ec…
10-28 12:59:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	55	91¢	$50	0xa7f3ca…
10-28 12:58:13	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0xb6e103…
10-28 12:58:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	14	72¢	$10	0xe9a8ac…
10-28 12:56:43	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x002b7d…
10-28 12:54:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xa0ac8b…
10-28 12:31:40	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Down	BUY	30	60¢	$18	0x1c71d6…
10-28 12:28:37	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	28	34¢	$10	0xd76496…
10-28 12:28:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	28	35¢	$10	0xa5c7e9…
10-28 12:28:13	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	12	59¢	$7	0xcd2de8…
10-28 12:28:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	12	12¢	$1	0x66560e…
10-28 12:27:47	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x65487e…
10-28 12:27:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x14dc00…
10-28 12:25:46	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0xf683da…
10-28 12:25:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xa04ab2…
10-28 12:23:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	BUY	12	16¢	$2	0x31b16c…
10-28 12:23:49	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Down	BUY	12	49¢	$6	0xa1fd0e…
10-28 12:23:43	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xfc7216…
10-28 12:23:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	12¢	$1	0x58499f…
10-28 12:21:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0xa88162…
10-28 12:21:56	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0xfd2daf…
10-28 12:19:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0xd0468f…
10-28 12:19:04	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x98472b…
10-28 12:15:14	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x9ff4a5…
10-28 12:15:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x84b4ac…
10-28 12:10:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xac348e…
10-28 12:10:41	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x9a55d2…
10-28 12:08:16	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	BUY	83	72¢	$60	0x22721d…
10-28 12:07:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	BUY	28	20¢	$6	0xd47403…
10-28 12:07:23	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Up	BUY	28	40¢	$11	0x4303a1…
10-28 12:06:59	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	BUY	12	47¢	$6	0xf8f7ae…
10-28 12:06:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Up	BUY	12	84¢	$10	0xdf02b9…
10-28 12:06:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	12¢	$1	0x74e8f7…
10-28 12:06:53	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x6ec657…
10-28 12:06:26	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x33ef41…
10-28 12:06:20	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Up	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x302f8f…
10-28 12:06:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0xd5cb5e…
10-28 12:00:19	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0xea1025…
10-28 12:00:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x689b6e…
10-28 11:51:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x83c0d9…
10-28 11:51:17	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x4df55d…
10-28 11:45:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0xb71088…
10-28 11:45:41	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x9114ec…
10-28 11:38:50	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Down	BUY	65	5¢	$3	0x5dc6fa…
10-28 11:38:40	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Down	BUY	29	16¢	$5	0x3c9977…
10-28 11:38:13	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Down	BUY	12	19¢	$2	0x9a27ba…
10-28 11:37:34	Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x5c5791…
10-28 11:35:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 28, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0xe9db93…