Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$55

Unrealized P&L

-$3

Hit rate

11.4%

Resolved

Trades

127

lifetime

Volume

$1.09K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$12

4 positions

First seen

2026-09-28

last 10-16 15:14

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 22 days

Categories

Other

75% 10% -$50

Politics

13% 25% $0

Tech

7% 0% —

Crypto

5% 0% -$5

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

19 active days in 12wk • peak 19 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (22) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after December 2026 meeting?	No	+20	$9	60¢	$12	+$3	10-15 20:47
Will no next Israeli Minister of Finance be appointed by February 28, 2027?	Yes	+1	$3	29¢	$0	-$2	10-08 21:18
Will annual inflation be 3.7% in October?	No	+7	$2	3¢	$0	-$2	10-15 15:32
Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?	Yes	+1	$2	20¢	$0	-$1	10-09 22:56

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Barcelona finish top 8 in UCL league phase?	3	$61	40	40	+0	open	—	09-29 21:25
will the next gpt sol model 6pt1 debut at a score of at least 1480 by june 30 2027	3	$55	60	20	+40	No	-$1	09-30 06:03
Will Isaias peak at Category 3?	4	$45	27	27	+0	Yes	+$1	10-09 15:50
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.52% in October?	4	$45	40	36	+4	Yes	-$6	10-06 06:30
Eritrea invades Ethiopia by October 31?	2	$34	20	20	+0	open	—	10-13 11:28
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision?	2	$34	20	20	+0	Yes	+$0	10-09 10:59
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?	2	$32	20	20	+0	No	+$0	10-01 09:02
Will Hong Kong have between 120-210mm of precipitation in October?	2	$31	20	20	+0	No	+$0	10-11 04:33
Will ISM Services PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in October?	2	$30	20	20	+0	No	-$1	10-11 06:31
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $7.50 and $8.00 on November 30, 2026?	2	$30	20	20	+0	open	—	10-05 05:40
Will Christian Walker win a 2026 AL Gold Glove Award?	2	$29	20	20	+0	Yes	-$2	10-07 20:30
Will Trump meet with Javier Milei by October 31, 2026?	2	$29	20	20	+0	No	$0	10-01 12:40
Will Google be the second-best AI lab at the end of November 2026?	3	$28	20	20	+0	open	—	10-04 09:22
Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 55% or higher?	2	$28	20	20	+0	Yes	-$2	10-09 20:15
Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in August 2026 be between 0.0% and 0.1%?	2	$28	20	20	+0	Yes	-$1	10-08 12:54
Will Abyss be the fewest played map at VALORANT Champions 2026?	2	$26	20	18	+2	Yes	$0	10-06 14:01
will ewy reach 176 in october 2026	2	$24	20	20	+0	No	+$0	10-14 06:04
Will London have less than 35mm of precipitation in October?	3	$24	20	19	+1	No	-$1	10-12 20:37
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of November 2026?	2	$24	20	20	+0	open	—	10-03 15:09
Will Core PCE YoY be 3.1% in September?	2	$23	20	20	+0	Yes	$0	10-16 09:10
SpaceX becomes a US mobile carrier by December 31, 2027?	3	$21	20	20	+0	open	—	10-09 23:27
will the social reckoning score at least 80 on the rotten tomatoes tomatometer 20261012	6	$20	40	39	+1	No	-$2	09-30 12:28
Will Simon peak at Category 4?	3	$20	20	20	+0	Yes	$0	10-09 07:21
Will Trudy peak at Category 4?	2	$19	20	20	+0	No	+$0	10-15 08:54
Will Donald Trump publicly praise Dario Amodei by October 31, 2026?	2	$19	17	17	+0	No	-$7	10-12 18:15
Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the December 2026 meeting?	2	$18	20	20	+0	open	—	10-09 11:08
sullivan flips peltola for alaska senate by november 2	1	$18	20	0	+20	No	+$2	10-16 15:14
Will Ukraine re-enter Terny by December 31, 2026?	2	$17	20	20	+0	open	—	10-06 13:14
Will "Street Fighter" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	2	$17	20	20	+0	No	-$2	10-07 11:50
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?	3	$16	20	19	+1	Yes	-$1	10-01 12:46

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-16 15:14:09	sullivan flips peltola for alaska senate by november 2	No	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0x74ed22…
10-16 13:39:25	turek flips hinson for iowa senate by november 2	Yes	BUY	20	38¢	$7	0x7e602e…
10-16 12:55:36	Will NextEra Energy (NEE) Q3 operating revenue be above $7.5B?	No	SELL	6	15¢	$1	0x0f5e0a…
10-16 12:30:27	husted flips brown for ohio senate by november 2	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0x1705a5…
10-16 09:10:58	Will Core PCE YoY be 3.1% in September?	No	SELL	20	57¢	$11	0x8be53b…
10-16 06:00:43	axis robotics fdv above 50m one day after launch	No	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0xc0164b…
10-15 22:22:23	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.10 and $2.20 in October?	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0x82dd86…
10-15 21:42:26	Will Core PCE YoY be 3.1% in September?	No	BUY	20	57¢	$11	0xa13780…
10-15 20:47:18	No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0xe49696…
10-15 15:32:49	Will annual inflation be 3.7% in October?	No	SELL	13	32¢	$4	0x49d74b…
10-15 15:30:59	Will annual inflation be 3.7% in October?	No	BUY	20	31¢	$6	0xe1e114…
10-15 14:05:49	Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $172 in October?	Yes	SELL	20	18¢	$4	0x8efc5e…
10-15 11:14:27	Kimberly Guilfoyle federally charged by December 31?	Yes	SELL	20	6¢	$1	0x73faeb…
10-15 10:01:26	Will NextEra Energy (NEE) Q3 operating revenue be above $7.5B?	No	SELL	6	19¢	$1	0xb1d372…
10-15 08:54:29	Will Trudy peak at Category 4?	Yes	SELL	20	47¢	$9	0x15ff70…
10-15 08:53:05	Will Trudy peak at Category 4?	Yes	BUY	20	47¢	$9	0x119fd5…
10-15 01:47:26	will ewy reach 172 in october 2026	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0x312bbe…
10-14 12:31:00	will ewy dip to 162 in october 2026	No	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0xa70c85…
10-14 06:04:46	will ewy reach 176 in october 2026	No	SELL	20	60¢	$12	0xda8f2d…
10-14 04:00:04	kimberly guilfoyle federally charged by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0xac97eb…
10-13 16:09:48	will nextera energy nee q3 operating revenue be above 20261008120020000 7pt5b	No	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0xa124c0…
10-13 13:33:55	will ewy reach 176 in october 2026	No	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0x3a2754…
10-13 11:28:55	Eritrea invades Ethiopia by October 31?	No	SELL	20	84¢	$17	0xf011af…
10-13 07:53:26	No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	8	22¢	$2	0xd6ac92…
10-13 07:53:26	No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	12	22¢	$3	0xcb3569…
10-13 01:22:41	Will there be no next Meta Muse Spark model release by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	11	21¢	$2	0xa127c3…
10-13 01:18:23	Will there be no next Meta Muse Spark model release by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	12	15¢	$2	0xa0690b…
10-12 20:37:41	Will London have less than 35mm of precipitation in October?	No	SELL	13	55¢	$7	0x8ea52a…
10-12 18:15:33	Will Donald Trump publicly praise Dario Amodei by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	17	34¢	$6	0x647f82…
10-12 11:29:35	Will Somali pirates successfully seize a vessel by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	20	30¢	$6	0x8a400d…
10-11 22:55:36	Eritrea invades Ethiopia by October 31?	No	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x582dc3…
10-11 20:45:40	Will London have less than 35mm of precipitation in October?	No	SELL	6	64¢	$4	0xf4dcff…
10-11 20:32:49	Will London have less than 35mm of precipitation in October?	No	BUY	20	64¢	$13	0xbd6c40…
10-11 18:10:09	Will Donald Trump publicly praise Dario Amodei by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	17	76¢	$13	0xe70396…
10-11 10:58:59	Will Somali pirates successfully seize a vessel by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	47¢	$9	0x895c1d…
10-11 06:31:17	Will ISM Services PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in October?	No	SELL	20	71¢	$14	0x27f3ab…
10-11 04:33:29	Will Hong Kong have between 120-210mm of precipitation in October?	No	SELL	20	76¢	$15	0x6ae7ca…
10-10 20:08:27	Will Hong Kong have between 120-210mm of precipitation in October?	No	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0xd8e1db…
10-10 11:23:36	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 43.0 and 45.9 in October?	Yes	SELL	8	29¢	$2	0x3a517d…
10-10 11:23:36	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 43.0 and 45.9 in October?	Yes	SELL	12	29¢	$4	0x2bd32a…
10-10 10:30:57	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 43.0 and 45.9 in October?	Yes	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0xd49477…
10-10 08:11:12	Netflix (NFLX) Q3 operating margin 34% to 36%?	No	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0xb73ef2…
10-10 05:55:49	Will ISM Services PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in October?	No	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0x9fc97d…
10-09 23:27:01	SpaceX becomes a US mobile carrier by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	10	53¢	$5	0x32b76a…
10-09 23:26:47	SpaceX becomes a US mobile carrier by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	10	53¢	$5	0xe34147…
10-09 22:56:29	Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?	Yes	SELL	25	11¢	$3	0x63c988…
10-09 22:47:22	SpaceX becomes a US mobile carrier by December 31, 2027?	No	BUY	20	53¢	$11	0xa5cbd7…
10-09 20:15:04	Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 55% or higher?	Yes	SELL	20	65¢	$13	0x404ef9…
10-09 19:16:20	Will Benfica finish 9th-24th in UEL league phase?	Yes	SELL	20	26¢	$5	0x1e185f…
10-09 15:50:15	Will Isaias peak at Category 3?	Yes	SELL	20	87¢	$17	0x3f7407…
10-09 13:22:39	Will Isaias peak at Category 3?	Yes	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0xceeec9…
10-09 12:22:52	Will Isaias peak at Category 3?	Yes	SELL	7	81¢	$6	0x5833ac…
10-09 12:13:37	No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0x55fb2c…
10-09 11:19:34	Will Isaias peak at Category 3?	Yes	BUY	7	81¢	$6	0x81808e…
10-09 11:08:48	Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the December 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	20	45¢	$9	0x17dee4…
10-09 10:59:06	Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision?	Yes	SELL	20	84¢	$17	0x6a50d4…
10-09 07:44:15	Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision?	Yes	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0x605b5f…
10-09 07:21:33	Will Simon peak at Category 4?	No	SELL	20	51¢	$10	0x118cd6…
10-09 06:32:31	Gemini 4.0 released by October 16, 2026?	No	SELL	20	38¢	$8	0x4f3064…
10-09 04:19:24	Gemini 4.0 released by October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	20	38¢	$8	0x0c4d16…
10-09 02:41:18	Will Simon peak at Category 4?	No	BUY	11	51¢	$6	0x41c2ce…
10-09 02:41:18	Will Simon peak at Category 4?	No	BUY	9	51¢	$5	0x383916…
10-08 21:18:47	Will no next Israeli Minister of Finance be appointed by February 28, 2027?	Yes	SELL	10	34¢	$3	0x363492…
10-08 16:44:42	Reserve Bank of New Zealand increases interest rates by 25 bps at the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0x885240…
10-08 12:54:56	Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in August 2026 be between 0.0% and 0.1%?	No	SELL	20	67¢	$13	0x367fc1…
10-08 02:57:53	Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 55% or higher?	Yes	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0x8bf459…
10-07 20:30:33	Will Christian Walker win a 2026 AL Gold Glove Award?	No	SELL	20	68¢	$14	0x605d84…
10-07 17:42:28	Will no next Israeli Minister of Finance be appointed by February 28, 2027?	Yes	SELL	4	36¢	$2	0x2aa5bb…
10-07 12:39:56	Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in August 2026 be between 0.0% and 0.1%?	No	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0x31ad18…
10-07 11:50:53	Will "Street Fighter" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	SELL	20	37¢	$7	0xbdb432…
10-06 14:01:35	Will Abyss be the fewest played map at VALORANT Champions 2026?	Yes	SELL	18	68¢	$12	0x8f3b9f…
10-06 13:14:52	Will Ukraine re-enter Terny by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	39¢	$8	0xdc16bb…
10-06 07:16:18	Will "Street Fighter" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	Yes	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0xbf5802…
10-06 06:30:21	Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.52% in October?	Yes	SELL	2	50¢	$1	0x34e61f…
10-06 01:44:56	Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.52% in October?	Yes	SELL	34	49¢	$16	0xa4b934…
10-05 13:13:49	Will Abyss be the fewest played map at VALORANT Champions 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	71¢	$14	0xdee0ba…
10-05 05:40:01	Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $7.50 and $8.00 on November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	20	77¢	$15	0x281236…
10-05 04:48:01	Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $7.50 and $8.00 on November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0x638d60…
10-04 17:09:53	will ukraine re enter terny by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0x6f175b…
10-04 09:22:50	Will Google be the second-best AI lab at the end of November 2026?	No	SELL	6	66¢	$4	0xdce64a…
10-04 02:31:14	Will no next Israeli Minister of Finance be appointed by February 28, 2027?	Yes	BUY	15	50¢	$8	0x468d22…
10-03 23:32:59	Will the Green Party candidate win less than 20% of the vote in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?	Yes	SELL	20	10¢	$2	0xb0581a…
10-03 15:09:29	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of November 2026?	No	SELL	20	51¢	$10	0x62f171…
10-03 08:42:41	Will "Other Mommy" score at least 50 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	SELL	19	25¢	$5	0x23582e…
10-02 17:01:20	Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.52% in October?	Yes	BUY	20	69¢	$14	0xc21668…
10-02 17:01:20	Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.52% in October?	Yes	BUY	20	69¢	$14	0xb434f9…
10-02 15:33:30	Will NattyNatt Win the ADC Race 2026?	No	SELL	5	28¢	$1	0x2fb5eb…
10-01 21:54:14	Will NattyNatt Win the ADC Race 2026?	No	SELL	4	27¢	$1	0xc362be…
10-01 21:54:14	Will NattyNatt Win the ADC Race 2026?	No	SELL	11	27¢	$3	0x042ff1…
10-01 12:46:33	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?	Yes	SELL	14	35¢	$5	0xc908cd…
10-01 12:40:12	Will Trump meet with Javier Milei by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	71¢	$14	0x1588b5…
10-01 11:31:03	Will Trump meet with Javier Milei by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	73¢	$15	0xcb7ada…
10-01 09:02:17	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	20	79¢	$16	0x9213a3…
10-01 07:13:56	will trump speak to luiz inacio lula da silva by october 31	Yes	SELL	20	14¢	$3	0xb84e66…
10-01 05:43:27	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	20	79¢	$16	0xae290f…
10-01 05:23:02	will trump speak to luiz inacio lula da silva by october 31	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x036508…
10-01 05:08:06	will christian walker win a 2026 al gold glove award	No	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0xcd4060…
10-01 04:42:09	Will Google be the second-best AI lab at the end of November 2026?	No	SELL	14	70¢	$10	0x340add…
10-01 04:14:48	Will Google be the second-best AI lab at the end of November 2026?	No	BUY	20	73¢	$15	0x9ad653…
10-01 03:27:39	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of November 2026?	No	BUY	20	68¢	$14	0xeec712…