Ill-Metaphor — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2.49K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

73.7%

Resolved

5,989

Trades

18,509

lifetime

Volume

$111.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-09

last 10-27 14:01

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 151 days

Categories

Crypto

98% 67% -$2,412

Other

2% 46% -$76

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

43 active days in 12wk • peak 521 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-20 17:30 UTC	10	$432	250	250	+0	Up	+$36	02-20 17:41
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-24 16:30 UTC	10	$423	420	141	+279	Up	-$73	02-24 16:45
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-19 19:05 UTC	2	$396	200	200	+0	Up	+$0	02-19 19:10
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-19 19:00 UTC	2	$396	200	200	+0	Up	+$0	02-19 19:05
Ethereum Up or Down - October 5, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	16	$361	291	291	+0	Down	+$53	10-05 12:48
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-24 16:00 UTC	20	$301	408	57	+350	Up	+$8	02-24 18:34
Ethereum Up or Down - October 1, 8AM ET	22	$294	200	200	+0	Down	+$44	10-01 12:48
Ethereum Up or Down - October 1, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	16	$286	200	200	+0	Up	+$86	10-01 13:09
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-24 16:45 UTC	14	$276	360	0	+360	Up	-$216	02-24 16:55
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-19 09:00 UTC	31	$272	200	200	+0	Up	+$24	02-19 09:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 1, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	7	$269	188	188	+0	Down	+$66	10-02 01:39
bitcoin up or down october 4 2026 8am et	12	$254	170	170	+0	Down	+$32	10-04 12:40
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-05 11:40 UTC	15	$242	150	150	+0	Down	+$26	10-05 11:43
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-23 10:15 UTC	10	$230	160	159	+1	Down	+$86	02-23 10:30
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-21 20:15 UTC	19	$229	475	0	+475	Up	+$46	02-21 20:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	2	$228	150	150	+0	Down	+$66	10-05 11:33
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-19 08:45 UTC	11	$220	210	209	+1	Up	+$35	02-19 08:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	8	$211	130	130	+0	Up	+$14	10-02 06:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-18 13:20 UTC	5	$209	200	200	+0	Down	-$41	07-18 13:23
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-22 14:45 UTC	5	$207	120	100	+20	Up	+$3	02-22 15:00
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-20 17:00 UTC	19	$199	460	0	+460	Down	+$31	02-20 17:08
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-19 16:15 UTC	5	$199	150	148	+2	Up	+$11	02-19 16:22
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-19 18:15 UTC	4	$198	100	100	+0	Down	+$0	02-19 18:20
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-19 18:30 UTC	2	$198	100	100	+0	Up	+$0	02-19 18:45
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-19 18:05 UTC	4	$197	100	100	+0	Up	+$1	02-19 18:10
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-18 16:30 UTC	17	$196	420	0	+420	Down	+$4	02-18 16:34
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-19 18:50 UTC	2	$196	100	100	+0	Down	+$2	02-19 18:55
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-19 18:30 UTC	2	$196	100	100	+0	Down	+$2	02-19 18:35
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-19 17:35 UTC	2	$196	100	100	+0	Down	+$2	02-19 17:40
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-18 17:30 UTC	12	$194	400	0	+400	Up	+$6	02-18 17:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 14:01:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	10	8¢	$1	0xffb3ff…
10-27 14:00:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0x55703a…
10-27 14:00:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0x6645aa…
10-27 13:57:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	SELL	10	35¢	$4	0xbb8b6f…
10-27 13:52:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x5cbf5d…
10-27 13:50:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Up	SELL	5	34¢	$2	0x46289e…
10-27 13:48:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xa32c42…
10-27 13:41:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Down	SELL	5	82¢	$4	0x7cc87a…
10-27 13:38:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x68d7c2…
10-27 13:36:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0xc229d7…
10-27 13:36:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0x84a482…
10-27 13:35:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	BUY	10	18¢	$2	0x0d4ef2…
10-27 13:32:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Up	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x4fe4f9…
10-27 13:31:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	SELL	10	36¢	$4	0xcd7520…
10-27 13:26:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x8fb9aa…
10-27 13:25:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Up	SELL	5	22¢	$1	0x8b12a5…
10-27 13:22:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x321e4e…
10-27 13:11:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Up	SELL	60	84¢	$51	0x30a7c8…
10-27 13:06:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	60	51¢	$31	0x603f02…
10-27 13:03:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Up	BUY	3	2¢	$0	0xa68d8f…
10-27 13:03:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Up	BUY	7	2¢	$0	0x187d5c…
10-27 13:03:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x956aaf…
10-27 13:00:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	BUY	4	39¢	$2	0xd7941d…
10-27 13:00:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Down	BUY	16	39¢	$6	0x0f76d1…
10-27 12:58:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Up	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0xb73ed1…
10-27 12:55:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	SELL	100	70¢	$70	0xc49909…
10-27 12:54:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	100	48¢	$48	0xca52a1…
10-27 12:53:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	SELL	80	9¢	$7	0xba62a0…
10-27 12:49:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	80	54¢	$43	0x334679…
10-27 12:48:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Down	SELL	50	32¢	$16	0x94f315…
10-27 12:44:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Down	BUY	50	57¢	$28	0x8391df…
10-27 12:43:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Down	SELL	20	34¢	$7	0xe40def…
10-27 12:39:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	20	53¢	$11	0x1fcfe8…
10-27 12:35:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	SELL	30	70¢	$21	0xc24259…
10-27 12:35:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	BUY	25	50¢	$12	0x517393…
10-27 12:35:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x288cd4…
10-27 12:32:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Down	SELL	20	11¢	$2	0x3db02f…
10-27 12:28:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Down	BUY	20	52¢	$10	0xe4dde5…
10-27 12:27:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	SELL	10	18¢	$2	0xf8e1f4…
10-27 12:23:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x0fdc70…
10-27 12:22:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Down	SELL	5	25¢	$1	0x1eb909…
10-27 12:19:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xe11cb9…
10-27 12:00:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x771298…
10-27 11:57:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x8aed22…
10-27 11:55:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x9c75e9…
10-27 11:53:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xaf2e48…
10-27 11:50:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0x5159d5…
10-27 11:49:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xfe09d3…
10-27 11:48:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Up	SELL	5	92¢	$5	0x6008a0…
10-27 11:44:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x7045cb…
10-27 11:31:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Down	SELL	5	20¢	$1	0x9b9fd3…
10-27 11:29:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x5c764c…
10-27 11:23:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0x97cb3f…
10-27 11:20:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	17¢	$1	0xb939b2…
10-27 11:16:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x55d52e…
10-27 11:15:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Up	SELL	5	20¢	$1	0xf94d2c…
10-27 11:12:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x1b5117…
10-27 11:00:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	SELL	5	77¢	$4	0xcff87d…
10-27 10:59:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x3148fa…
10-27 10:58:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	SELL	5	86¢	$4	0x14623d…
10-27 10:54:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xed37d7…
10-27 10:52:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Up	BUY	10	26¢	$3	0x01f1c7…
10-27 10:47:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET	Down	BUY	15	53¢	$8	0xef714a…
10-27 10:43:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Down	BUY	7	53¢	$4	0x8beed7…
10-27 10:42:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	SELL	5	20¢	$1	0x971401…
10-27 10:37:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x8bea31…
10-27 10:37:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0xda1910…
10-27 10:37:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	11¢	$1	0x3cf0cd…
10-27 10:34:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0xcd2aa8…
10-27 10:33:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x72d6a8…
10-27 10:32:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x0de9d6…
10-27 10:31:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xb46b3a…
10-27 05:56:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	12	79¢	$10	0x7d8a3e…
10-27 05:55:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x147298…
10-27 05:53:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x3dea52…
10-27 05:46:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Down	SELL	5	10¢	$0	0x02fda9…
10-27 05:44:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Down	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x860074…
10-27 04:53:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xb32247…
10-27 04:48:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x1a5c29…
10-27 04:47:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Down	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x228876…
10-27 04:42:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Up	SELL	5	26¢	$1	0xbddb60…
10-27 04:41:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x4acbac…
10-27 04:38:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	53¢	$3	0x0fe91c…
10-27 02:53:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Up	BUY	15	4¢	$1	0x3b79d8…
10-27 02:48:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Down	BUY	15	50¢	$8	0x4c3153…
10-27 02:46:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Down	BUY	4	30¢	$1	0x19fe5d…
10-27 02:46:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Down	BUY	1	30¢	$0	0x42faa9…
10-27 02:42:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x253207…
10-27 02:40:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Down	BUY	5	32¢	$2	0xeb03b8…
10-27 02:39:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xc6c527…
10-27 02:22:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x7a32e7…
10-27 02:21:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Up	BUY	3	40¢	$1	0xa01add…
10-27 02:20:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0xfe6ac5…
10-27 02:01:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Up	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x066da2…
10-27 01:59:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0xee5af6…
10-27 01:50:20	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 9PM ET	Down	SELL	5	66¢	$3	0x3e967b…
10-27 01:47:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Up	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0x8ed179…
10-27 01:45:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Down	BUY	10	67¢	$7	0xaeec7a…
10-27 01:42:50	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 9PM ET	Down	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x7d5011…
10-27 00:53:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Up	SELL	5	36¢	$2	0x6c57a0…