Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$201

Unrealized P&L

+$6

Hit rate

44.1%

Resolved

103

Trades

520

lifetime

Volume

$15.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$29

Open exposure

$27

1 position

First seen

2026-06-10

last 10-28 20:54

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 27 days

Categories

Politics

55% 37% -$1,016

Other

24% 52% +$565

Tech

20% 50% +$235

Crypto

0% 75% +$14

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

56 active days in 12wk • peak 41 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?	No		+29	$21	94¢	$27	+$6	10-05 10:34

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?	36	$1.6K	1,934	1,934	+0	No	-$562	10-04 21:20
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	14	$1.4K	2,049	1,346	+703	No	-$374	10-23 13:13
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?	25	$785	2,722	2,722	+0	No	-$51	10-03 21:49
Will Cadu de Lula win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?	16	$502	1,020	852	+168	Yes	+$150	10-16 14:46
Renan Santos participates in debate before first round?	10	$486	746	445	+301	No	+$142	10-03 00:52
Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $45 in 2026?	6	$435	477	477	+0	open	—	10-20 21:10
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	6	$418	1,110	1,110	+0	Yes	+$26	10-21 15:05
will gpt astra output price be 40 or below in 2026	10	$345	791	0	+791	open	—	10-20 14:28
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher?	10	$340	417	417	+0	open	—	10-08 18:30
Will Veneziano win the second-most votes in the 2026 Paraíba Senate election?	6	$329	546	0	+546	Yes	+$216	10-04 21:27
Will SpaceXAI officially rename itself to SpaceXSI by October 31?	3	$299	444	189	+255	Yes	+$115	10-09 12:21
Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	3	$290	342	342	+0	Yes	+$10	10-19 02:04
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amazonas?	2	$290	259	259	+0	Yes	-$10	10-09 11:54
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?	3	$278	653	273	+380	No	-$87	10-23 02:27
Will Leila do Vôlei win the second-most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election?	11	$261	573	283	+290	No	-$38	10-03 21:08
Will claude-fable-5.1-max be the best AI model on September 21, 2026?	4	$214	128	128	+0	Yes	+$22	09-17 12:30
Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election be 78-80%?	1	$200	384	0	+384	No	-$200	10-10 15:26
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at an output token price of at least $50 by June 30, 2027?	5	$193	372	0	+372	open	—	10-13 05:01
Will Deltan Dallagnol win the most votes in the 2026 Paraná Senate election?	12	$190	248	248	+0	No	+$23	09-22 18:05
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	6	$180	7,363	7,363	+0	No	-$55	10-06 10:01
Will OpenAI resume US ChatGPT Pro signups by September 30, 2026?	10	$180	4,242	142	+4,100	Yes	+$42	09-30 19:05
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	4	$177	301	301	+0	No	-$26	10-09 19:10
Will Google be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?	3	$177	111	111	+0	Yes	+$9	09-19 14:42
Flávio Bolsonaro participates in debate before first round?	3	$172	164	164	+0	No	+$144	10-01 23:12
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher?	2	$168	128	128	+0	Yes	+$88	10-14 16:01
Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	2	$166	285	285	+0	No	+$96	10-19 02:05
Lula participates in debate before first round?	8	$164	145	145	+0	No	+$3	09-28 12:32
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	11	$160	243	243	+0	Yes	+$88	09-15 23:55
will claude fable output price be 40 or below in 2026	4	$159	351	95	+256	open	—	10-14 14:12
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–6%?	2	$150	511	0	+511	No	-$150	10-24 21:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 20:54:56	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at an output token price of at least $40 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	31	35¢	$11	0x032d8a…
10-28 13:01:34	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at an output token price of at least $40 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	61	22¢	$13	0x22c692…
10-27 18:37:38	Will OpenAI's frontier output token price be at or below $40 in 2026?	Yes	BUY	128	38¢	$48	0x3f9418…
10-27 14:16:56	Will GPT Astra's output price be at or below $25 in 2026?	Yes	BUY	470	11¢	$50	0x005233…
10-27 11:08:20	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at an output token price of at least $40 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	313	18¢	$56	0xe9e058…
10-25 16:18:53	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 2–4%?	Yes	BUY	156	32¢	$50	0xe9a258…
10-24 21:06:41	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–6%?	Yes	BUY	154	32¢	$50	0xb8e904…
10-24 17:33:05	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 2–4%?	Yes	BUY	172	29¢	$50	0xac6aea…
10-23 13:13:45	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	238	42¢	$100	0xc0eaa9…
10-23 02:27:33	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?	Yes	BUY	380	27¢	$103	0xae4f2a…
10-22 22:08:50	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–6%?	Yes	BUY	357	28¢	$100	0x823d6d…
10-22 22:07:08	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	465	43¢	$200	0xa85f6d…
10-21 21:24:24	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	SELL	494	41¢	$203	0x90ff3a…
10-21 15:05:59	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	SELL	526	20¢	$105	0x994657…
10-21 13:22:06	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	526	19¢	$100	0x1c4b52…
10-21 13:21:05	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?	Yes	SELL	273	35¢	$96	0xf57763…
10-20 21:10:08	Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $45 in 2026?	Yes	SELL	79	55¢	$43	0xd6ea6d…
10-20 20:43:41	Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $45 in 2026?	Yes	SELL	160	59¢	$94	0xe04db3…
10-20 14:28:11	Will GPT Astra's output price be at or below $40 in 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	42¢	$16	0x0120e1…
10-20 12:15:02	Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $50 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	130	23¢	$30	0xf7eb30…
10-19 14:46:17	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?	Yes	BUY	273	29¢	$80	0x587389…
10-19 14:45:09	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	250	40¢	$100	0x409a33…
10-19 02:05:42	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	Yes	SELL	285	46¢	$131	0x63f1b8…
10-19 02:04:36	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	Yes	SELL	342	44¢	$150	0xc7137d…
10-18 17:12:09	Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round?	No	SELL	475	8¢	$36	0xcf2eb7…
10-18 01:08:36	Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round?	No	BUY	145	7¢	$10	0xd37116…
10-18 00:00:03	Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round?	No	BUY	205	5¢	$10	0x36920e…
10-17 22:15:53	Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round?	No	BUY	581	7¢	$40	0xaa517c…
10-17 13:55:53	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	244	41¢	$100	0xb8fb44…
10-17 02:13:14	Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	198	17¢	$33	0xca5d84…
10-17 02:00:24	Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	192	26¢	$50	0x7c6319…
10-16 23:42:00	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	SELL	584	20¢	$117	0x5fb26c…
10-16 16:05:13	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	170	21¢	$35	0x82c61c…
10-16 14:46:46	Will Cadu de Lula win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?	Yes	BUY	168	30¢	$50	0x8c2007…
10-16 12:56:30	Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $50 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	120	25¢	$30	0x544b5d…
10-16 12:41:52	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	250	20¢	$50	0xc4a705…
10-15 23:20:01	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	SELL	333	41¢	$137	0x4e8e43…
10-15 00:16:44	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	Yes	BUY	285	12¢	$35	0x2fe648…
10-14 21:15:19	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	209	14¢	$30	0xc8bf5b…
10-14 21:14:34	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	125	13¢	$16	0xe5657a…
10-14 21:11:07	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	333	36¢	$120	0x933372…
10-14 16:01:12	Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher?	Yes	SELL	128	100¢	$128	0x8ebca3…
10-14 14:12:26	will claude fable output price be 40 or below in 2026	Yes	SELL	95	42¢	$40	0x4f2662…
10-14 12:48:02	will gpt astra output price be 40 or below in 2026	Yes	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0xe6b7ff…
10-14 00:17:45	Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $45 in 2026?	Yes	SELL	238	45¢	$106	0x086dc4…
10-13 19:31:22	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	53	57¢	$30	0x2077d9…
10-13 09:55:44	Will GPT Astra's output price be at or below $40 in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0x2f9f67…
10-13 05:01:50	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at an output token price of at least $50 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	0	45¢	$0	0xe9f350…
10-13 05:00:57	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at an output token price of at least $50 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	18	45¢	$8	0xf4cca6…
10-13 02:47:48	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	38¢	$8	0x8cf76f…
10-13 01:12:36	Will Meta's Watermelon model debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher?	No	BUY	100	46¢	$46	0x212b56…
10-13 01:08:06	Will GPT Astra's output price be at or above $60 in 2026?	No	BUY	20	53¢	$11	0xb272b1…
10-12 22:23:59	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	128	39¢	$50	0x089db4…
10-12 22:22:47	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	39¢	$8	0x7bc8f9…
10-12 21:31:44	Will Meta's Watermelon model debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher?	No	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0x11bb1c…
10-12 20:29:09	Will GPT Astra's output price be at or below $30 in 2026?	Yes	BUY	149	29¢	$43	0x79f094…
10-12 18:51:30	Will GPT Astra's output price be at or below $40 in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	44¢	$9	0xfc7c1b…
10-12 18:51:03	Will Cadu de Lula win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?	Yes	SELL	511	20¢	$102	0x6e4e17…
10-11 23:54:45	Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $40 in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0x970332…
10-11 19:00:19	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at an output token price of at least $50 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	114	46¢	$53	0x9b6efe…
10-11 18:37:31	Will GPT Astra's output price be at or below $40 in 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	53¢	$32	0xd0ea7d…
10-11 15:24:03	Will GPT Astra's output price be at or below $40 in 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	52¢	$31	0xe1a225…
10-11 00:43:13	Will GPT Astra's output price be at or below $40 in 2026?	Yes	BUY	173	53¢	$92	0xb08d5c…
10-10 19:11:04	Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $45 in 2026?	Yes	BUY	123	53¢	$65	0xd23638…
10-10 15:53:24	Will GPT Astra's output price be at or below $40 in 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	42¢	$9	0x05336c…
10-10 15:41:58	Will SpaceXAI officially rename itself to SpaceXSI by October 15?	Yes	SELL	229	29¢	$66	0xd22bfe…
10-10 15:26:00	Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election be 78-80%?	Yes	BUY	384	52¢	$200	0x467d99…
10-09 19:10:04	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	301	25¢	$75	0x00220e…
10-09 18:11:32	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Bahia?	No	BUY	235	6¢	$14	0x7e7e39…
10-09 16:59:42	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Bahia?	No	BUY	95	6¢	$6	0x155960…
10-09 14:52:57	Will GPT Astra's output price be at or above $60 in 2026?	No	BUY	80	56¢	$45	0x7bfeea…
10-09 13:51:33	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Bahia?	No	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0xaf4869…
10-09 13:33:43	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Bahia?	No	BUY	316	3¢	$9	0x8bbcc8…
10-09 12:30:13	Will SpaceXAI officially rename itself to SpaceXSI by October 15?	Yes	BUY	229	31¢	$70	0xce9c91…
10-09 12:21:42	Will SpaceXAI officially rename itself to SpaceXSI by October 31?	Yes	BUY	255	59¢	$150	0x9039e9…
10-09 12:17:43	Will SpaceXAI officially rename itself to SpaceXSI by October 31?	No	SELL	189	42¢	$79	0x26a197…
10-09 11:54:36	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amazonas?	Yes	SELL	259	54¢	$140	0x39a2b2…
10-09 11:01:39	Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $40 in 2026?	Yes	BUY	138	44¢	$60	0x2ffc75…
10-09 07:10:51	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?	No	SELL	82	73¢	$60	0x0a9374…
10-09 07:07:49	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?	No	SELL	1	70¢	$1	0x20badc…
10-09 07:07:42	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?	No	SELL	1	70¢	$1	0x0d64cc…
10-09 07:07:30	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?	No	SELL	1	70¢	$1	0x455f51…
10-09 07:07:21	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?	No	SELL	1	70¢	$1	0x295a3f…
10-09 07:07:07	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?	No	SELL	1	70¢	$1	0x4822cc…
10-08 22:41:36	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amazonas?	Yes	BUY	259	58¢	$150	0xeaec69…
10-08 22:26:29	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	SELL	519	31¢	$161	0xdbe3f8…
10-08 21:41:30	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	139	36¢	$50	0x062689…
10-08 18:30:24	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher?	No	SELL	361	67¢	$242	0x0950e1…
10-08 18:11:12	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	Yes	BUY	111	36¢	$40	0x5d30bb…
10-08 14:27:35	Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $45 in 2026?	Yes	BUY	61	45¢	$27	0x524229…
10-08 00:03:05	Will SpaceXAI officially rename itself to SpaceXSI by October 31?	No	BUY	189	37¢	$70	0xe22d7f…
10-06 23:13:34	Will AI solve the Hadwiger-Nelson problem in 2026?	Yes	SELL	166	17¢	$28	0xa06687…
10-06 23:04:31	Will AI solve the Hadwiger-Nelson problem in 2026?	Yes	BUY	331	15¢	$50	0xd18c83…
10-06 13:30:10	Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $40 in 2026?	Yes	BUY	193	26¢	$50	0xf22dc6…
10-06 12:59:58	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at an output token price of at least $50 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	200	55¢	$110	0xc4820e…
10-06 12:53:48	Will GPT Astra's output price be at or below $40 in 2026?	Yes	BUY	88	42¢	$37	0x6f5fa6…
10-06 12:16:31	Will GPT Astra's output price be at or below $40 in 2026?	Yes	BUY	290	34¢	$100	0x1218aa…
10-06 11:57:10	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in October?	Yes	BUY	231	43¢	$100	0xe805bb…
10-06 11:44:16	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 23, 2026?	Yes	SELL	71	14¢	$10	0x590e0f…
10-06 10:01:28	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	6,856	1¢	$56	0x505a03…