Arid-Mood — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

7.5%

Resolved

Trades

178

lifetime

Volume

$863

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-31

last 06-08 08:42

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Other

63% 33% $-2

Politics

36% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

32 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
trump out as president by march 31	4	$72	36	36	+0	open	—	03-21 21:04
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	2	$64	32	32	+0	open	—	04-19 08:53
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?	2	$60	30	30	+0	open	—	04-19 10:25
Trump out as President by April 30?	2	$58	29	29	+0	open	—	04-19 14:35
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?	2	$44	22	22	+0	open	—	02-07 08:48
zelenskyy out as ukraine president by march 31 2026	2	$36	18	18	+0	open	—	03-28 13:36
pete hegseth out as secretary of defense by march 31	2	$36	18	18	+0	open	—	03-28 14:22
will any country expel a us ambassador by march 31	2	$36	18	18	+0	open	—	03-28 13:20
jang dong hyeok out as people power party leader by march 31 2026	2	$36	18	18	+0	open	—	03-29 16:09
GTA VI released before June 2026?	4	$30	15	15	+0	open	—	04-30 14:59
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	4	$30	15	15	+0	open	—	05-21 11:55
will the bank of russia decrease the key rate after the april meeting	2	$30	15	15	+0	open	—	04-19 14:05
Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026?	2	$22	11	11	+0	Yes	$-0	04-17 13:38
will bhumjaithai party bjt win the most seats in the 2026 thai legislative election	2	$21	11	11	+0	open	—	02-08 18:41
Will the flotilla reach Gaza by May 31?	2	$20	10	10	+0	open	—	05-21 14:45
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	2	$16	8	8	-0	open	—	06-03 16:46
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$16	8	8	+0	open	—	04-22 06:49
Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by June 30?	2	$16	8	8	+0	open	—	06-03 21:00
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?	2	$11	6	6	+0	open	—	05-19 15:47
elc sto sot 2026 01 31 sto	2	$11	6	6	+0	open	—	01-31 14:19
Will Trump insult MBS by May 15?	2	$10	5	5	+0	open	—	05-13 05:48
Sharjah ruler Sultan bin Muhammad Al-Qasimi arrested by May 31?	2	$10	5	5	+0	open	—	05-03 19:19
Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?	2	$10	5	5	+0	No	$-0	05-03 18:28
spx up or down on february 13 2026	2	$6	4	4	+0	open	—	02-13 17:55
will peoples party pple win the most seats in the 2026 thai legislative election	2	$6	5	5	+0	open	—	02-03 14:18
Cerebras IPO before 2027?	2	$6	3	3	+0	open	—	02-24 16:55
kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	2	$6	3	3	+0	open	—	03-16 19:08
bank of japan decreases interest rates after march 2026 meeting	2	$6	3	3	+0	open	—	03-03 05:29
will ph win the most seats in the 2026 colombian chamber of representatives election	2	$6	4	4	+0	open	—	02-24 16:55
will cdu win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	02-25 13:07

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-08 08:42:01	dbi quarterly earnings nongaap eps 06 09 2026 0pt03	Yes	SELL	1	72¢	$1	0x68fa83…
06-05 12:59:21	chwy quarterly earnings nongaap eps 06 10 2026 0pt43	Yes	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x934280…
06-05 12:58:46	dbi quarterly earnings nongaap eps 06 09 2026 0pt03	Yes	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x31d888…
06-03 21:00:43	Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by June 30?	No	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0x99fc26…
06-03 20:11:22	Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by June 30?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x774f79…
06-03 16:46:15	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x8eb9eb…
06-03 15:37:15	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x5b7863…
05-21 14:45:35	Will the flotilla reach Gaza by May 31?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xbb69fa…
05-21 14:25:34	Will the flotilla reach Gaza by May 31?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x7554bf…
05-21 11:55:55	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xf047d0…
05-21 11:41:18	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xda9e3c…
05-19 15:47:16	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?	No	SELL	6	99¢	$5	0x013a8d…
05-18 17:12:04	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?	No	BUY	6	99¢	$5	0x1d4668…
05-13 05:48:17	Will Trump insult MBS by May 15?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x7062c9…
05-13 04:55:19	Will Trump insult MBS by May 15?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xf9c056…
05-04 08:46:38	Will US Foods (USFD) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x547456…
05-03 19:19:26	Sharjah ruler Sultan bin Muhammad Al-Qasimi arrested by May 31?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x0ed66d…
05-03 19:03:52	Sharjah ruler Sultan bin Muhammad Al-Qasimi arrested by May 31?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xec9de5…
05-03 18:28:38	Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xa67198…
05-03 18:02:42	Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x432832…
05-03 17:57:24	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0x6e7ac7…
05-03 17:46:50	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xe89b77…
04-30 15:32:50	Will News Corp (NWSA) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0xa48f7b…
04-30 15:31:18	Will BGC Group (BGC) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x5c599e…
04-30 15:01:14	Will Consolidated Edison (ED) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xc1aabb…
04-30 14:59:20	GTA VI released before June 2026?	No	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x8caedb…
04-29 16:42:50	GTA VI released before June 2026?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x904783…
04-27 08:14:40	GTA VI released before June 2026?	No	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0x5b67a9…
04-25 05:10:06	GTA VI released before June 2026?	No	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0x4e6c95…
04-24 17:21:16	Will Cloudflare (NET) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x5d20bd…
04-24 17:20:50	Will Dropbox (DBX) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0xa4d0c8…
04-24 17:18:36	Will KKR (KKR) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xb11f33…
04-23 20:19:22	Will BP (BP) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	1	83¢	$1	0x23dc32…
04-23 19:10:04	Will Hasbro (HAS) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	1	84¢	$1	0x0b246b…
04-22 06:49:40	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0xb2e3c3…
04-21 15:05:50	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x0ca424…
04-21 15:03:42	mbwm quarterly earnings gaap eps 04 21 2026 1pt26	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xf5a687…
04-19 14:48:22	dow quarterly earnings nongaap eps 04 23 2026 neg0pt30	Yes	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x5dad0e…
04-19 14:35:12	Trump out as President by April 30?	No	SELL	29	99¢	$29	0x391478…
04-19 14:20:36	Trump out as President by April 30?	No	BUY	29	99¢	$29	0x8e397f…
04-19 14:05:06	will the bank of russia decrease the key rate after the april meeting	Yes	SELL	15	96¢	$15	0x628773…
04-19 12:04:46	will the bank of russia decrease the key rate after the april meeting	Yes	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0x5843ef…
04-19 11:46:32	Will Hasbro (HAS) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xd48bea…
04-19 11:46:18	lmt quarterly earnings gaap eps 04 23 2026 6pt68	Yes	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x836bf0…
04-19 11:11:18	aal quarterly earnings nongaap eps 04 23 2026 neg0pt46	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x08ea4c…
04-19 10:25:00	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?	Yes	SELL	30	99¢	$30	0x2344c2…
04-19 10:12:48	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jan–Mar–Apr)?	Yes	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0x8f8794…
04-19 08:53:54	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	SELL	32	99¢	$32	0x02c6a5…
04-19 07:59:28	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	BUY	32	99¢	$32	0x56ab81…
04-17 13:38:26	Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0x1bf502…
04-17 13:06:32	Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0xc05d54…
04-17 13:00:28	ally quarterly earnings nongaap eps 04 17 2026 0pt95	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xca2296…
04-14 14:41:27	usb quarterly earnings gaap eps 04 16 2026 1pt14	Yes	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x842b8d…
04-14 14:41:13	mbwm quarterly earnings gaap eps 04 21 2026 1pt26	Yes	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0xc2e24e…
04-14 14:40:45	cof quarterly earnings nongaap eps 04 21 2026 4pt69	Yes	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x4a81d7…
04-14 14:39:43	ally quarterly earnings nongaap eps 04 17 2026 0pt95	Yes	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0xfae8e7…
04-14 14:39:25	hon quarterly earnings nongaap eps 04 23 2026 2pt32	Yes	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x0ce6a3…
04-14 14:38:13	bk quarterly earnings nongaap eps 04 16 2026 1pt93	Yes	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xe92641…
04-14 14:33:53	c quarterly earnings gaap eps 04 14 2026 2pt6	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x2589c8…
04-06 16:53:23	usb quarterly earnings gaap eps 04 16 2026 1pt14	Yes	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0xed5f87…
04-06 16:52:57	nflx quarterly earnings gaap eps 04 16 2026 0pt76	Yes	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x580c49…
04-06 16:52:21	stt quarterly earnings gaap eps 04 17 2026 2pt57	Yes	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0xc55ca8…
04-04 19:33:31	will tatiana auguste win the by election for the seat of terrebone in the house of commons of canada	Yes	SELL	2	58¢	$1	0x9ff11e…
04-04 19:33:21	bac quarterly earnings gaap eps 04 15 2026 1	Yes	SELL	1	83¢	$1	0xb18398…
04-02 14:27:29	wfc quarterly earnings gaap eps 04 14 2026 1pt58	Yes	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x53134c…
04-02 14:27:01	bac quarterly earnings gaap eps 04 15 2026 1	Yes	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x821801…
04-02 14:26:41	ms quarterly earnings gaap eps 04 15 2026 3	Yes	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x19bbc4…
04-01 17:32:13	Will Trump name "Elon" or "Musk" in April?	Yes	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x7a9d2d…
04-01 06:38:11	c quarterly earnings gaap eps 04 14 2026 2pt6	Yes	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0xe5e9b0…
04-01 06:35:45	will trump say bunny during the easter lunch on wednesday	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xd9d774…
04-01 06:35:15	will trump say maga or make america great again during address to the nation	Yes	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xff6aeb…
04-01 06:30:57	wdfc quarterly earnings gaap eps 04 09 2026 1pt43	Yes	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x0b173b…
03-29 16:38:50	Will Trump say "Palestine" in April?	Yes	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xa5acb3…
03-29 16:38:44	Will Trump say "United States Armed Forces" in April?	Yes	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xde5a5d…
03-29 16:09:24	jang dong hyeok out as people power party leader by march 31 2026	No	SELL	18	99¢	$18	0x3c74b2…
03-28 14:24:53	jang dong hyeok out as people power party leader by march 31 2026	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xdaf65d…
03-28 14:22:49	pete hegseth out as secretary of defense by march 31	No	SELL	18	99¢	$18	0x653aa8…
03-28 13:46:49	pete hegseth out as secretary of defense by march 31	No	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0x43bd4c…
03-28 13:36:17	zelenskyy out as ukraine president by march 31 2026	No	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0x0a966e…
03-28 13:21:47	zelenskyy out as ukraine president by march 31 2026	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xe70ad6…
03-28 13:20:41	will any country expel a us ambassador by march 31	No	SELL	18	99¢	$18	0x897627…
03-27 05:21:29	will any country expel a us ambassador by march 31	No	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0x9ad32b…
03-25 13:48:05	will avi lewis win the canadian ndp leadership election	Yes	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0xadf42f…
03-25 13:47:55	will beinir johannesen be the next lgmaur of the faroe islands following the 2026 faroese general election	Yes	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0xf66868…
03-24 13:21:03	will avi lewis win the canadian ndp leadership election	Yes	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0x6fde17…
03-24 13:18:19	will tatiana auguste win the by election for the seat of terrebone in the house of commons of canada	Yes	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x130226…
03-22 18:15:53	will beinir johannesen be the next lgmaur of the faroe islands following the 2026 faroese general election	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x813962…
03-22 18:15:31	will peoples party win the most seats in the lgting in the 2026 faroese general election	Yes	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0xb81e0a…
03-21 21:04:13	trump out as president by march 31	No	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0xdb64be…
03-21 20:46:17	trump out as president by march 31	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x227995…
03-21 20:26:17	will the democratic coalition dk win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x359e69…
03-21 20:24:31	Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	SELL	500	0¢	$1	0x20c3f4…
03-20 05:57:17	trump out as president by march 31	No	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0x62af48…
03-20 05:40:07	trump out as president by march 31	No	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0x3d0bdf…
03-16 19:08:05	kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31	No	SELL	3	88¢	$3	0x2fe42b…
03-14 09:54:59	baba quarterly earnings nongaap eps 03 19 2026 1pt59	Yes	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xed2021…
03-14 09:54:43	wsm quarterly earnings gaap eps 03 18 2026 2pt91	Yes	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x9ce927…
03-14 09:53:55	aso quarterly earnings nongaap eps 03 17 2026 2pt05	Yes	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x318f67…
03-14 09:51:31	will aurora gaming win esl pro league season 23	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x6272c3…
03-14 09:51:19	will natus vincere win esl pro league season 23	Yes	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x3d0747…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Faraway-Seaside 0xf0b0…8cab	72	$62.7K	5,128	05-03 22:20
Fragrant-Dandelion 0x1408…b4f8	65	$8.22K	1,808	05-08 11:52
Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71	64	$3.53K	1,010	06-06 23:45
Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418	59	$4.19M	5,970	06-09 10:45
Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71	48	$201.7K	3,432	06-04 09:48
Mountainous-Elongation 0x5fe5…8b99	46	$2.84K	739	04-13 02:53
(anonymous) 0xd6ee…37a2	44	$34.7K	3,377	03-28 06:05
(anonymous) 0xa3e2…fdf8	44	$2.72K	164	06-08 10:43