Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$10.4K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

74.3%

Resolved

448

Trades

2,031

lifetime

Volume

$204.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$101

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 09-22 14:27

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 98 days

Categories

Other

83% 67% -$7,004

Tech

8% 67% +$914

Sports

6% 33% -$4,215

Politics

3% 78% +$555

Crypto

0% 0% -$645

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

49 active days in 12wk • peak 60 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
epl ast not 2026 01 03 not	6	$11.6K	6,837	6,837	-0	No	+$745	01-03 16:59
epl bou ars 2026 01 03 bou	3	$7.7K	4,158	4,158	+0	No	+$579	01-03 23:17
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?	172	$3.3K	5,223	5,223	+0	Yes	+$252	08-06 17:47
lal sev lev 2026 01 04 lev	5	$3.2K	2,651	1,320	+1,331	Yes	-$1,097	01-04 12:51
will gpt 6 be released by august 31 2026 778	27	$2.9K	1,958	1,958	+0	No	+$47	08-16 13:48
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.00–$2.25 in July?	8	$2.8K	1,522	1,522	+0	Yes	+$255	08-12 13:26
lal mad mal 2026 01 25 mad	2	$2.8K	1,591	1,591	+0	Yes	+$396	01-25 15:08
sea cag mil 2026 01 02 cag	2	$2.7K	1,448	1,448	+0	No	+$200	01-03 00:16
Will fewer than 150 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?	43	$2.6K	2,561	1,329	+1,232	Yes	+$1,278	07-18 19:40
will spacex starship flight test 14 launch by august 31	17	$2.4K	1,331	1,330	+1	No	+$208	08-21 19:24
Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?	19	$2.2K	1,194	1,194	+0	Yes	+$187	08-01 08:57
bun hsv bay 2026 01 31 total 2pt5	5	$2.2K	1,162	1,162	+0	Over	+$142	01-31 18:54
elc por ips 2026 01 04 por	4	$2.1K	1,210	1,210	+0	Yes	-$15	01-04 11:21
nba hou dal 2026 01 03	1	$2.0K	2,700	0	+2,700	Mavericks	-$1,998	01-03 23:18
lal rea bet 2026 01 04 bet	2	$1.9K	1,028	1,028	+0	No	+$153	01-04 17:13
lal rso mad 2026 01 04 rso	2	$1.9K	1,053	1,053	+0	No	+$231	01-05 00:23
nba sas ind 2026 01 02	2	$1.8K	1,343	1,343	+0	Spurs	-$13	01-02 01:55
will gpt 6 be released by august 21 2026	19	$1.8K	969	969	-0	No	+$96	08-15 14:18
sea fio cre 2026 01 04 fio	2	$1.7K	2,200	1,600	+600	Yes	-$292	01-04 09:26
us iran hormuz agreement by august 15 20260804222025506 211	24	$1.6K	1,787	300	+1,487	No	+$458	08-17 14:05
ere az nec 2026 01 31 total 1pt5	3	$1.5K	809	809	+0	Over	+$108	01-31 16:00
lal bar ovi 2026 01 25 bar	3	$1.5K	800	800	+0	Yes	+$102	01-25 17:00
will russia capture toretske by september 30 2026	5	$1.5K	1,754	418	+1,336	Yes	-$868	08-21 22:35
nba den cle 2026 01 02	1	$1.4K	1,682	0	+1,682	Cavaliers	+$235	01-03 00:17
will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 7 2026	16	$1.4K	780	780	+0	No	+$180	08-07 16:50
spl ahl nsr 2026 01 02 ahl	1	$1.3K	1,726	0	+1,726	Yes	-$1,343	01-02 14:23
ere fey her 2026 01 25 total 1pt5	2	$1.3K	674	674	+0	Over	+$68	01-25 17:17
bun dor hei 2026 02 01 dor	2	$1.2K	700	700	+0	Yes	+$153	02-01 18:37
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?	13	$1.2K	664	664	-0	No	+$85	08-04 15:49
Will 200-224 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?	10	$1.2K	649	649	+0	No	+$71	07-12 14:51

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-22 14:27:52	Will there be exactly 4 ChatGPT outages in September 2026?	No	SELL	16	83¢	$13	0x39524d…
09-22 14:27:39	Will there be exactly 4 ChatGPT outages in September 2026?	No	SELL	14	83¢	$12	0xe8c0a6…
09-22 14:27:22	Will there be exactly 4 ChatGPT outages in September 2026?	No	SELL	20	84¢	$17	0xb2ca9f…
09-22 14:26:15	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.10 and $2.20 in September?	No	SELL	118	75¢	$89	0x5df22a…
09-22 00:46:28	Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	Yes	SELL	130	19¢	$24	0x41895d…
09-21 20:20:55	Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	Yes	SELL	1	37¢	$0	0x3154eb…
09-21 20:20:54	Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	Yes	SELL	10	37¢	$4	0x89c88d…
09-21 19:59:30	Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	Yes	SELL	23	37¢	$8	0xecb672…
09-21 18:20:22	Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	Yes	SELL	95	37¢	$35	0x8d302d…
09-21 17:50:13	Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	Yes	SELL	30	37¢	$11	0x6cab15…
09-21 16:53:17	Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	Yes	SELL	3	37¢	$1	0x1ae88f…
09-21 16:52:56	Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	Yes	SELL	7	37¢	$3	0x06a004…
09-21 16:28:47	Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	Yes	SELL	3	37¢	$1	0x217d7b…
09-21 16:27:42	Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	Yes	SELL	3	37¢	$1	0x0eb8f7…
09-21 16:02:38	Will there be exactly 4 ChatGPT outages in September 2026?	No	SELL	85	86¢	$73	0xadfdf9…
09-21 16:01:35	Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	Yes	SELL	40	37¢	$15	0x4ca731…
09-21 15:58:38	Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30?	No	SELL	210	90¢	$189	0x5b52f6…
09-21 15:58:10	Will 40 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	No	SELL	23	99¢	$23	0xfa3948…
09-21 15:57:43	Will Claude go down 11-13 times in September?	No	SELL	6	91¢	$6	0xe5046b…
09-21 15:57:41	Will Claude go down 11-13 times in September?	No	SELL	27	91¢	$25	0xfa112d…
09-21 15:56:25	Will Russia capture Kucheriv Yar by October 31?	Yes	SELL	91	10¢	$9	0x81b407…
09-21 15:55:23	Will there be exactly 4 ChatGPT outages in September 2026?	No	SELL	178	87¢	$156	0x7f5214…
09-21 15:53:55	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.30 and $2.40 in September?	Yes	SELL	103	18¢	$19	0x574aab…
09-21 15:53:19	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.10 and $2.20 in September?	No	SELL	89	77¢	$69	0xc3668a…
09-21 15:52:10	Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	Yes	SELL	227	30¢	$68	0x4fafbd…
09-21 15:51:34	Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	20	62¢	$12	0x041cf9…
09-21 14:19:17	Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	Yes	SELL	5	54¢	$3	0xa10d4a…
09-21 14:12:59	Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	No	SELL	25	92¢	$23	0x473a32…
09-21 14:06:17	Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	Yes	SELL	227	20¢	$45	0xf12f88…
09-21 08:52:48	Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	No	SELL	13	92¢	$12	0x420ebe…
09-21 08:43:18	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	50	90¢	$45	0xb4fcac…
09-21 08:43:18	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	10	89¢	$9	0x3c1814…
09-21 08:43:18	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	60	90¢	$54	0x3b256a…
09-21 08:32:03	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	49	87¢	$43	0x8b37ff…
09-21 06:09:10	Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	75	73¢	$55	0x76ed1f…
09-21 05:33:58	Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	20	64¢	$13	0xe147c2…
09-21 03:03:20	Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	No	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x77f651…
09-21 02:49:17	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	SELL	40	97¢	$39	0xdcde4f…
09-21 02:47:41	Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	SELL	33	93¢	$31	0xf62078…
09-21 00:02:08	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in September?	Yes	SELL	70	72¢	$50	0xf60f83…
09-21 00:00:55	Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	50	73¢	$36	0x999c50…
09-21 00:00:47	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.10 and $2.20 in September?	No	SELL	0	78¢	$0	0x95b740…
09-21 00:00:22	Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	406	18¢	$73	0x709ca1…
09-20 23:58:13	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.10 and $2.20 in September?	No	SELL	56	78¢	$44	0x09cc95…
09-20 23:56:43	Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	No	SELL	6	92¢	$6	0xacd11c…
09-20 18:52:44	Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	40	65¢	$26	0xc5cf41…
09-20 18:49:40	Will Russia capture Kucheriv Yar by October 31?	Yes	BUY	145	12¢	$17	0xcb39c3…
09-20 14:41:30	Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	Yes	SELL	5	33¢	$2	0xc6eb4c…
09-20 14:41:28	Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	Yes	SELL	8	33¢	$3	0x7fe14e…
09-20 13:38:07	Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	Yes	SELL	8	35¢	$3	0xa2f11d…
09-20 09:19:55	Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	Yes	SELL	244	3¢	$7	0xfacaeb…
09-20 08:47:25	Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	Yes	SELL	4	3¢	$0	0x2d6717…
09-20 07:56:07	Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	Yes	SELL	250	3¢	$8	0xf99f02…
09-20 06:12:39	Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	Yes	SELL	10	3¢	$0	0xcde3de…
09-20 05:10:46	Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	Yes	SELL	52	3¢	$2	0x2ee02c…
09-20 04:21:22	Will Russia capture Kucheriv Yar by October 31?	Yes	BUY	95	11¢	$10	0xa86698…
09-19 16:44:45	Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	Yes	SELL	85	34¢	$29	0xaddbb5…
09-19 13:39:42	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	120	86¢	$103	0x532921…
09-19 03:52:57	Will Russia capture Kucheriv Yar by October 31?	Yes	BUY	26	12¢	$3	0x85726d…
09-19 03:04:48	Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	Yes	SELL	50	20¢	$10	0x1a23e1…
09-19 03:00:54	Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	Yes	SELL	12	21¢	$3	0xf2cc17…
09-18 20:00:03	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	49	87¢	$43	0x842e6d…
09-18 15:53:25	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.10 and $2.20 in September?	No	BUY	20	69¢	$14	0xf0440f…
09-18 14:51:45	Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	Yes	BUY	1	27¢	$0	0xc86c47…
09-18 14:50:34	Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	Yes	BUY	3	27¢	$1	0x1b9729…
09-18 14:47:45	Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	Yes	BUY	3	27¢	$1	0xf77e63…
09-18 14:47:39	Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	Yes	BUY	3	27¢	$1	0x590bc9…
09-18 14:46:37	Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	Yes	BUY	3	27¢	$1	0xca1f74…
09-18 09:40:04	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in September?	Yes	SELL	90	2¢	$2	0xec6107…
09-18 02:49:46	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in September?	Yes	BUY	70	53¢	$37	0x89ac75…
09-18 02:49:10	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in September?	Yes	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0xc7f0c7…
09-18 02:48:39	Will Claude go down 5-7 times in September?	No	SELL	202	48¢	$97	0xa9db9e…
09-18 00:33:18	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.10 and $2.20 in September?	No	BUY	183	68¢	$124	0x9957ca…
09-18 00:02:07	Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	Yes	BUY	81	27¢	$22	0xc8e110…
09-18 00:02:07	Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	Yes	BUY	15	16¢	$2	0xbfa41d…
09-18 00:02:07	Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	Yes	BUY	35	16¢	$6	0x55da09…
09-18 00:02:07	Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	Yes	BUY	35	27¢	$9	0x185f9c…
09-18 00:02:06	Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	Yes	BUY	10	16¢	$2	0xdf1f09…
09-18 00:01:18	Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	Yes	BUY	120	27¢	$32	0x368b8f…
09-18 00:00:16	Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	Yes	BUY	11	26¢	$3	0x99587e…
09-18 00:00:16	Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	Yes	BUY	83	16¢	$13	0x425e6e…
09-18 00:00:15	Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	Yes	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0xc2c8a3…
09-17 23:48:21	Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	Yes	BUY	9	26¢	$2	0xb3f0d9…
09-17 23:48:21	Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	Yes	BUY	9	26¢	$2	0x10f5f2…
09-17 23:47:33	Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	Yes	BUY	100	27¢	$27	0xa77ede…
09-17 23:46:36	Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	Yes	BUY	40	26¢	$10	0x954d63…
09-17 23:46:19	Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	Yes	BUY	144	16¢	$23	0xd04943…
09-17 23:45:12	Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	Yes	BUY	272	16¢	$44	0x307d68…
09-17 23:44:52	Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	No	SELL	240	84¢	$202	0xac1b72…
09-17 23:10:21	Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	No	BUY	41	91¢	$37	0xd3f64f…
09-17 23:04:00	Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	Yes	BUY	246	24¢	$59	0xee1460…
09-17 23:03:27	Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	Yes	BUY	300	26¢	$78	0x29a311…
09-17 22:37:15	Will there be exactly 1 ChatGPT outage in September 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	8¢	$1	0x8833bd…
09-17 22:19:51	Will there be exactly 1 ChatGPT outage in September 2026?	Yes	SELL	18	8¢	$1	0x4b0654…
09-17 20:42:57	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.30 and $2.40 in September?	Yes	BUY	3	15¢	$0	0x013341…
09-17 20:41:13	Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	320	12¢	$38	0xef2187…
09-17 20:39:04	Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 18, 2026?	No	SELL	420	80¢	$336	0xa219bd…
09-17 01:49:43	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.10 and $2.20 in September?	No	BUY	20	73¢	$15	0x105208…
09-17 01:49:34	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.10 and $2.20 in September?	No	BUY	56	72¢	$41	0x6cd378…
09-17 01:48:39	Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	No	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0xf417c3…