Shallow-Radish — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$490

Unrealized P&L

+$270

Hit rate

60.0%

Resolved

3,841

Trades

19,391

lifetime

Volume

$286.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$15

Open exposure

$978

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-25

last 10-26 22:24

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 79 days

Categories

Crypto

57% 49% -$545

Other

40% 62% +$321

Politics

3% 64% -$267

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

31 active days in 12wk • peak 63 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	+870	$581	96¢	$835	+$253	10-22 14:18
Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	+106	$96	99¢	$105	+$9	10-15 06:44
will the 10 year treasury yield hit 5pt4 before 2027	No	+48	$30	80¢	$38	+$8	09-23 21:10
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	+2	$1	20¢	$0	-$1	09-10 16:11

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	134	$34.6K	31,630	30,750	+880	Yes	-$4,575	01-29 20:42
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	15	$14.1K	14,628	11,415	+3,214	Yes	+$1,048	09-11 16:50
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	13	$9.6K	7,182	6,312	+870	open	—	10-22 14:18
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	9	$8.9K	11,718	8,307	+3,411	Yes	-$1,076	07-29 17:59
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 7?	16	$8.4K	10,500	6,123	+4,376	No	+$1,099	09-07 04:21
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	32	$6.6K	5,126	4,035	+1,091	No	+$731	07-04 00:12
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	6	$3.1K	3,681	3,681	+0	No	-$440	07-04 12:29
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	2	$3.1K	2,857	2,857	+0	No	+$657	08-28 14:02
bitcoin up or down february 5 7pm et	9	$2.8K	2,665	461	+2,205	Up	+$89	02-06 00:59
us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931	19	$2.7K	2,575	3,756	-1,181	No	+$574	01-31 02:17
bitcoin up or down february 13 5pm et	29	$2.5K	2,693	285	+2,408	Up	-$982	02-13 22:58
bitcoin up or down february 13 12am et	26	$2.3K	2,748	25	+2,723	Down	-$335	02-13 05:59
Will Core PCE YoY be 3.0% or less in August?	1	$2.0K	2,002	0	+2,002	Yes	+$2	09-30 12:30
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 Week of September 7 2026?	6	$1.9K	1,365	1,365	+0	Yes	-$357	09-10 00:01
bitcoin up or down february 12 6pm et	18	$1.8K	2,340	0	+2,340	Down	-$1,058	02-12 23:58
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.33% in September?	5	$1.7K	1,807	909	+899	Yes	+$319	09-10 15:51
bitcoin up or down february 1 10am et	3	$1.6K	1,640	0	+1,640	Down	+$15	02-01 15:58
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	2	$1.6K	2,229	0	+2,229	Yes	+$629	10-26 22:24
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	2	$1.6K	956	956	+0	Yes	+$343	06-17 02:50
us strikes iran by february 1 2026	15	$1.5K	7,531	7,531	+0	No	-$246	02-01 21:02
bitcoin up or down february 11 8am et	18	$1.5K	1,925	0	+1,925	Up	-$573	02-11 13:57
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.45% before 2027?	2	$1.5K	1,835	0	+1,835	Yes	+$330	09-24 08:28
will the 10 year treasury yield hit 5pt10 in september	8	$1.5K	1,637	453	+1,184	Yes	+$585	09-23 21:08
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	5	$1.5K	1,339	1,339	+0	Yes	+$3	01-31 01:05
bitcoin up or down february 11 10am et	19	$1.5K	1,929	979	+950	Down	-$521	02-11 15:59
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.05% in September?	4	$1.4K	1,141	421	+720	Yes	+$119	09-23 21:01
bitcoin up or down february 12 12am et	9	$1.4K	1,654	41	+1,613	Up	+$31	02-12 05:59
bitcoin up or down february 14 12am et	22	$1.3K	1,675	0	+1,675	Down	-$589	02-14 05:58
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?	12	$1.3K	1,406	1,406	+0	open	—	10-02 12:10
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	1	$1.3K	1,899	0	+1,899	Yes	+$608	06-16 15:57

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 22:24:00	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	1,114	72¢	$800	0xf8bcbc…
10-26 22:23:50	Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	1,115	72¢	$800	0xce51c4…
10-26 22:18:09	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	1,282	4¢	$53	0xb017f0…
10-26 21:38:36	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	1,282	8¢	$100	0x449a83…
10-22 14:18:47	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	870	92¢	$800	0x961095…
10-18 23:16:32	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.80% before 2027?	No	BUY	795	66¢	$523	0x22618b…
10-15 06:44:02	Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0x9161a7…
10-15 06:42:13	Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0xfc3749…
10-15 06:42:05	Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	85	90¢	$77	0x8dcc33…
10-14 12:33:38	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,000	63¢	$630	0x026b58…
10-14 10:07:59	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,000	80¢	$800	0xa4e3fd…
10-08 18:42:36	Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	Yes	SELL	83	62¢	$52	0x76d94b…
10-05 04:34:13	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2,245	83¢	$1,863	0x3f5af7…
10-03 14:10:36	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	115	81¢	$93	0xc89e28…
10-02 12:12:27	Will the ECB announce no change at the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	115	16¢	$18	0x12dff3…
10-02 12:10:59	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	500	10¢	$50	0xff76ba…
10-01 23:04:12	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	500	11¢	$55	0x3755df…
10-01 18:26:18	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	47	90¢	$42	0x61d519…
10-01 18:26:18	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	79	90¢	$71	0x48d00d…
10-01 18:26:18	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	374	90¢	$337	0x225e38…
10-01 16:14:27	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	100	90¢	$90	0xf452c4…
10-01 07:55:02	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.65% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	30	86¢	$26	0xea6103…
09-30 19:36:23	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	56	66¢	$37	0x07e00b…
09-30 19:35:56	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	700	66¢	$462	0xdab21f…
09-30 19:31:23	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	9	66¢	$6	0x4db9ef…
09-30 19:31:09	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	8	66¢	$5	0x81ed8e…
09-30 19:31:08	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	3,000	66¢	$1,980	0x7d4343…
09-30 19:25:08	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	21	66¢	$14	0x523c9d…
09-30 19:22:54	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	29	66¢	$19	0x892deb…
09-30 16:34:56	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.65% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	86¢	$17	0x0f861a…
09-30 13:40:56	Will the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage hit 7.25% (HIGH) by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	119	6¢	$8	0xcd6488…
09-30 12:30:57	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,533	65¢	$1,000	0xdbe1dd…
09-30 12:30:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3,023	66¢	$2,000	0xeabae8…
09-30 12:30:24	Will Core PCE YoY be 3.0% or less in August?	Yes	BUY	2,002	100¢	$2,000	0x630744…
09-30 07:54:32	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.60% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	197	92¢	$182	0xf9894c…
09-29 13:31:17	will the 10 year treasury yield hit 5pt25 in september	Yes	SELL	62	45¢	$28	0x2123f6…
09-29 13:11:18	will the 5 year treasury yield hit 5pt07 in september	Yes	SELL	43	79¢	$34	0xef5f11…
09-28 17:34:54	Will Core PCE YoY be 3.4% in August?	Yes	BUY	20	38¢	$8	0x93edc4…
09-28 15:23:30	will the 10 year treasury yield hit 5pt20 in september	Yes	SELL	161	95¢	$153	0xc7aafd…
09-28 10:33:53	will the 10 year treasury yield hit 5pt20 in september	Yes	SELL	21	95¢	$20	0xf24217…
09-25 06:40:24	will the 10 year treasury yield hit 5pt20 in september	Yes	SELL	200	82¢	$164	0x6bee69…
09-25 06:39:32	will the 10 year treasury yield hit 5pt25 in september	Yes	SELL	29	54¢	$15	0xdbbc82…
09-24 21:02:53	will the 5 year treasury yield hit 5pt07 in september	Yes	BUY	0	80¢	$0	0x9218fa…
09-24 20:34:12	will the 5 year treasury yield hit 5pt07 in september	Yes	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0x5c70ae…
09-24 20:33:57	will the 5 year treasury yield hit 5pt07 in september	Yes	BUY	4	80¢	$3	0xa8ca11…
09-24 20:18:00	will the 5 year treasury yield hit 5pt07 in september	Yes	BUY	19	82¢	$15	0x60f422…
09-24 20:16:38	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.65% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	47¢	$24	0x40ac94…
09-24 20:16:21	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.60% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	197	61¢	$121	0x3f59a3…
09-24 20:15:00	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.55% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0x0a8150…
09-24 20:14:39	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.50% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	166	90¢	$150	0x3918d6…
09-24 20:11:54	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.50% in September?	Yes	BUY	535	88¢	$471	0xbb5d9a…
09-24 20:11:54	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.50% in September?	Yes	BUY	15	89¢	$13	0x452679…
09-24 20:11:35	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.55% in September?	Yes	BUY	19	32¢	$6	0x5c9cca…
09-24 20:10:20	will the 10 year treasury yield hit 5pt25 in september	No	SELL	24	40¢	$10	0xfbcb8c…
09-24 20:09:05	will the 10 year treasury yield hit 5pt20 in september	Yes	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0x38fbee…
09-24 20:08:57	will the 10 year treasury yield hit 5pt20 in september	Yes	BUY	169	95¢	$161	0x8951ab…
09-24 20:08:14	will the 10 year treasury yield hit 5pt20 in september	No	SELL	55	9¢	$5	0xc5f546…
09-24 20:05:48	will the 10 year treasury yield hit 5pt25 in september	Yes	BUY	454	40¢	$181	0x967189…
09-24 20:00:59	will the 10 year treasury yield hit 5pt20 in september	Yes	BUY	244	74¢	$181	0xccf3d5…
09-24 19:58:11	will the 10 year treasury yield hit 5pt20 in september	Yes	BUY	143	55¢	$79	0x714a56…
09-24 08:31:59	will the 10 year treasury yield hit 5pt17 in september	No	SELL	134	49¢	$65	0xce159d…
09-24 08:31:18	will the 10 year treasury yield hit 5pt15 in september	Yes	BUY	192	78¢	$150	0xd72b77…
09-24 08:28:48	will the 30 year treasury yield hit 5pt50 before 2027	Yes	BUY	65	71¢	$46	0x0cfcd3…
09-24 08:28:15	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.45% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	584	87¢	$511	0x62dc9d…
09-23 21:10:56	will the 10 year treasury yield hit 5pt4 before 2027	No	BUY	48	63¢	$30	0xe4172d…
09-23 21:10:19	will the 10 year treasury yield hit 5pt3 before 2027	No	BUY	41	36¢	$15	0x6ce214…
09-23 21:09:28	Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.76% in September?	Yes	SELL	150	0¢	$0	0x3b6d73…
09-23 21:09:01	will the 10 year treasury yield hit 5pt25 in september	No	BUY	387	77¢	$298	0x88e18f…
09-23 21:08:40	will the 10 year treasury yield hit 5pt20 in september	No	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x51d1bd…
09-23 21:08:23	will the 10 year treasury yield hit 5pt10 in september	Yes	SELL	344	100¢	$344	0x4d96b2…
09-23 21:07:26	will the 10 year treasury yield hit 5pt20 in september	No	BUY	50	58¢	$29	0x8ebf0d…
09-23 21:06:46	will the 10 year treasury yield hit 5pt17 in september	No	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x171870…
09-23 21:06:29	will the 10 year treasury yield hit 5pt10 in september	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x669d59…
09-23 21:05:55	will the 10 year treasury yield hit 5pt10 in september	Yes	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0xa3312e…
09-23 21:05:28	will the 10 year treasury yield hit 5pt17 in september	No	BUY	129	38¢	$49	0x1d7ae4…
09-23 21:05:01	will the 10 year treasury yield hit 5pt10 in september	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xb507f0…
09-23 21:04:46	will the 10 year treasury yield hit 5pt10 in september	Yes	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0xfb009f…
09-23 21:03:28	will the 10 year treasury yield hit 5pt15 in september	Yes	BUY	61	72¢	$44	0x43ff3c…
09-23 21:03:05	will the 10 year treasury yield hit 5pt10 in september	Yes	SELL	44	100¢	$44	0x9e3872…
09-23 21:01:49	Will the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage hit 7.00% (HIGH) by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	422	94¢	$396	0x7e7c89…
09-23 21:01:23	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.05% in September?	Yes	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x0dcd52…
09-23 20:59:43	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.05% in September?	Yes	SELL	414	100¢	$414	0x0f4637…
09-23 19:20:43	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	115	66¢	$76	0x8e2895…
09-23 19:11:38	Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.05% in September?	No	SELL	27	99¢	$27	0x708e2c…
09-23 19:11:20	Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 4.95% in September?	No	SELL	19	99¢	$19	0xbbee22…
09-23 18:55:59	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.45% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,252	79¢	$995	0x107c11…
09-23 18:53:29	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.1% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	525	97¢	$508	0xe221d7…
09-23 16:56:42	will the 10 year treasury yield hit 5pt10 in september	Yes	BUY	1,087	72¢	$782	0xf1fc68…
09-23 16:08:23	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.05% in September?	Yes	BUY	444	97¢	$433	0x958741…
09-23 16:07:52	will the 10 year treasury yield hit 5pt10 in september	Yes	BUY	550	49¢	$269	0x7845d7…
09-23 16:06:50	will the 5 year treasury yield hit 4pt90 in september	Yes	BUY	90	98¢	$87	0x18089c…
09-23 14:34:29	will the 5 year treasury yield hit 4pt90 in september	Yes	BUY	155	93¢	$144	0xed536a…
09-23 14:32:38	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.05% in September?	Yes	BUY	697	84¢	$589	0x194192…
09-21 20:38:57	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	600	58¢	$348	0x606c0c…
09-18 07:07:06	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	133	15¢	$20	0x61b3ac…
09-17 21:47:43	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	25	20¢	$5	0x2161d1…
09-17 21:47:00	Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	45	20¢	$9	0x70ca89…
09-16 19:59:04	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	301	35¢	$105	0xdb2e3a…
09-16 18:49:04	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.55% in September?	Yes	SELL	414	6¢	$24	0xdd719b…
09-16 14:58:38	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 4.90% in September?	No	SELL	131	50¢	$66	0x0fc736…