Valid-Cafe — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$59

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

80.6%

Resolved

259

Trades

491

lifetime

Volume

$6.44K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

$54

1 position

First seen

2026-01-04

last 11-01 20:43

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 124 days

Categories

Crypto

47% 80% -$101

Other

33% 65% +$25

Tech

14% 73% -$13

Politics

3% 100% +$30

Sports

3% 62% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

26 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	No		+60	$54	90¢	$54	+$0	11-01 20:43

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will bitcoin reach 70k in july 2026	6	$147	90	90	+0	No	+$1	07-26 20:59
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in September?	5	$136	74	74	+0	No	-$1	09-23 22:35
bitcoin above 72k on march 4	6	$131	82	82	+0	Yes	-$28	03-04 16:29
will chatgpt be 1 free app in the us apple app store on march 13	3	$119	100	32	+68	Yes	+$9	03-11 20:53
will bitcoin reach 70k in august 2026	3	$98	60	60	+0	Yes	+$7	08-14 06:33
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in August?	2	$97	50	50	+0	No	+$2	08-29 20:03
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	2	$93	50	50	+0	No	+$4	10-01 20:41
will bitcoin dip to 75k in january 2026	4	$86	87	0	+87	No	+$1	01-31 16:26
will bitcoin reach 72pt5k in august 2026	3	$83	90	0	+90	Yes	-$83	08-15 13:05
will bitcoin dip to 80k in january 2026	6	$81	52	52	+0	Yes	-$14	01-31 16:22
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	2	$81	41	41	+0	Yes	+$1	07-25 07:22
bitcoin above 80k on april 17	2	$79	40	40	+0	No	+$0	04-17 03:55
Will Ülle Madise be the next President of Estonia?	2	$78	40	40	+0	Yes	+$1	09-08 20:02
will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	4	$75	100	0	+100	Yes	+$25	04-12 16:30
will bitcoin reach 75k in july 2026	2	$70	73	0	+73	No	+$3	07-16 04:37
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31 985	10	$70	36	36	+0	Yes	+$2	01-31 10:10
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on July 31?	3	$70	38	38	+0	Yes	+$2	07-27 06:33
will chatgpt be 1 free app in the us apple app store on january 16	2	$65	67	0	+67	Yes	+$2	01-15 11:43
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in October?	1	$64	70	0	+70	No	+$6	10-01 19:25
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?	7	$63	40	40	+0	No	-$11	06-26 22:54
will alphabet be the second largest company in the world by market cap on january 31	4	$58	29	29	+0	Yes	+$1	01-31 10:10
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May?	2	$58	30	30	+0	No	+$2	05-29 21:57
will bitcoin dip to 52pt5k in july 2026 976	2	$57	63	0	+63	No	+$6	07-08 06:41
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 8?	6	$56	40	20	+20	Yes	+$3	05-07 00:26
bun dor pau 2026 01 17 dor	2	$55	41	41	+0	Yes	-$25	01-17 16:03
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	1	$54	60	0	+60	open	—	11-01 20:43
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?	2	$53	30	30	+0	No	-$1	04-17 13:46
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on April 28?	2	$53	30	30	+0	Yes	+$3	04-27 17:18
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	6	$52	160	160	+0	No	+$13	07-17 06:02
Will Péter Bárándy be the next President of Hungary?	1	$51	60	0	+60	No	+$9	08-02 06:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-01 20:43:12	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	60	90¢	$54	0x5eaa8b…
11-01 18:57:09	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	40	42¢	$17	0x3cb147…
11-01 18:56:34	Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	40	46¢	$18	0xcb937d…
11-01 11:09:25	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	30	95¢	$28	0x7fac11…
10-25 08:02:51	Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?	No	BUY	15	92¢	$14	0x0f1ae3…
10-22 09:36:53	Will the Danube River fail to return to normal levels by November 1, 2026?	No	SELL	33	13¢	$4	0xea68f2…
10-18 06:56:44	Will Muse from Meta be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?	Yes	BUY	28	70¢	$20	0xbf99b6…
10-11 06:38:41	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	36	84¢	$30	0xebed9a…
10-11 06:30:08	Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	Yes	SELL	22	99¢	$22	0x288b7d…
10-11 06:27:53	Will Bitcoin reach $97,500 in October?	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0xcef89d…
10-07 11:33:11	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	96¢	$38	0xa33d14…
10-06 18:36:26	Will Roman Zarzycký be the next Mayor of Plzeň?	Yes	BUY	30	87¢	$26	0xeca93a…
10-04 22:50:38	Will Muse from Meta be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 9?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x68e23d…
10-03 18:14:44	Will Muse from Meta be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 9?	Yes	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0x855617…
10-02 17:23:00	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	44	6¢	$3	0x5e4a4f…
10-02 04:39:42	Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in October?	Yes	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0x0e16ca…
10-01 23:08:09	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	3¢	$0	0x24fd37…
10-01 23:05:53	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	3¢	$1	0xe95447…
10-01 23:05:53	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	3¢	$0	0x50ed67…
10-01 23:05:53	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	3¢	$1	0x0829fe…
10-01 23:05:20	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	3¢	$0	0x16b4d9…
10-01 21:29:15	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	3¢	$0	0x2b8d80…
10-01 20:41:51	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	50	98¢	$49	0xe250dd…
10-01 19:35:42	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	89¢	$44	0xa48f7c…
10-01 19:25:36	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in October?	No	BUY	70	91¢	$64	0xa88a67…
10-01 04:50:06	Will Muse from Meta be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 2?	Yes	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0xc027cc…
09-27 06:03:59	Will Apvienotais Saraksts (AS) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	21	96¢	$20	0xdc4df3…
09-25 04:14:23	Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in September?	No	BUY	41	98¢	$40	0xa6002e…
09-25 04:12:47	Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in September?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x92c070…
09-23 22:35:46	Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in September?	No	SELL	16	91¢	$14	0x4b7ebf…
09-23 22:18:53	Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in September?	No	SELL	58	91¢	$53	0x9c6139…
09-19 06:19:00	Will the Danube River fail to return to normal levels by November 1, 2026?	No	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x437935…
09-11 16:22:04	Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in September?	No	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0xafce06…
09-11 16:21:46	Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in September?	No	BUY	32	94¢	$30	0xba05fd…
09-11 16:20:28	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Yes	BUY	43	92¢	$40	0xc4bd4c…
09-08 20:02:01	Will Ülle Madise be the next President of Estonia?	Yes	SELL	40	100¢	$40	0xe5d5fd…
09-04 04:44:43	Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?	No	BUY	54	93¢	$50	0xaf04d8…
09-03 04:17:16	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Yes	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0x013ffe…
09-01 19:26:55	Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in September?	No	BUY	40	92¢	$37	0x718e00…
08-29 20:03:10	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in August?	No	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0xed399c…
08-29 09:18:31	Will Braeden Caley win the 2026 North Vancouver—Capilano by-election?	Yes	BUY	30	98¢	$29	0x7c4f47…
08-29 06:34:12	Will Ülle Madise be the next President of Estonia?	Yes	BUY	40	96¢	$38	0x24add7…
08-29 06:23:36	Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on September 4?	Yes	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0xd35853…
08-27 06:49:52	Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on August 28?	Yes	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0x204513…
08-27 04:33:18	Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on August 28?	Yes	BUY	30	92¢	$28	0xd0aaf6…
08-23 10:19:54	Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on August 28?	Yes	SELL	10	80¢	$8	0x0dc6f6…
08-23 10:18:13	Will the Danube River fail to return to normal levels by November 1, 2026?	No	BUY	30	82¢	$25	0xd3b466…
08-23 08:02:34	Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on August 28?	Yes	SELL	10	76¢	$8	0x75cf62…
08-22 07:05:16	Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on August 28?	Yes	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0x47a2ac…
08-22 07:01:22	Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on August 28?	Yes	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0xc784bc…
08-22 06:55:28	will bitcoin reach 90k in august 2026	No	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0xa86961…
08-15 13:05:51	will bitcoin reach 72pt5k in august 2026	No	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0xb84548…
08-14 06:33:30	will bitcoin reach 70k in august 2026	No	SELL	60	88¢	$53	0xe01945…
08-05 06:38:29	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	BUY	50	9¢	$4	0x4bfee4…
08-02 18:00:18	will bitcoin reach 72pt5k in august 2026	No	BUY	16	87¢	$14	0x912e15…
08-02 14:34:32	Will Ágnes Forsthoffer be the next President of Hungary?	No	BUY	40	96¢	$38	0xf0bf41…
08-02 11:10:44	Will Ágnes Forsthoffer be the next President of Hungary?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x6a48b6…
08-02 06:00:53	Will Péter Bárándy be the next President of Hungary?	No	BUY	60	85¢	$51	0xfb3772…
08-02 03:31:59	will bitcoin reach 70k in august 2026	No	BUY	30	74¢	$22	0x2d19a6…
08-01 19:40:53	will bitcoin reach 70k in august 2026	No	BUY	30	78¢	$23	0xcf1e8f…
08-01 11:50:39	will bitcoin reach 72pt5k in august 2026	No	BUY	24	87¢	$21	0x87c381…
07-27 06:33:28	Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on July 31?	Yes	SELL	38	94¢	$36	0x36a7e5…
07-26 20:59:25	will bitcoin reach 70k in july 2026	No	SELL	19	96¢	$18	0x7db958…
07-25 15:42:45	Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on July 31?	Yes	BUY	23	87¢	$20	0x9064e5…
07-25 07:22:06	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	SELL	41	100¢	$41	0x0f2d3c…
07-25 06:16:30	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	BUY	30	89¢	$27	0x45be93…
07-25 05:52:07	Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on July 31?	Yes	BUY	15	94¢	$14	0x69d42c…
07-22 20:45:00	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	41	97¢	$40	0x2d17b0…
07-22 20:34:36	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	SELL	10	85¢	$8	0x98a13f…
07-18 10:40:04	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xef5c11…
07-17 06:02:37	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	SELL	12	36¢	$4	0x852176…
07-16 19:55:26	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	SELL	12	28¢	$3	0xbd790e…
07-16 05:02:16	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 18 20260715194822043	No	BUY	21	96¢	$20	0x0735d8…
07-16 04:37:20	will bitcoin reach 75k in july 2026	No	BUY	31	96¢	$30	0x9ce981…
07-16 04:35:46	will bitcoin reach 70k in july 2026	No	SELL	56	77¢	$43	0xaf9af0…
07-16 04:32:55	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	SELL	70	14¢	$10	0x168894…
07-15 04:51:41	will bitcoin reach 75k in july 2026	No	BUY	42	95¢	$40	0xfb33ff…
07-12 12:33:19	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x0eb240…
07-10 06:33:14	Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	31	98¢	$30	0xc49540…
07-08 06:41:11	will bitcoin dip to 52pt5k in july 2026 976	No	BUY	23	88¢	$20	0x1d4d47…
07-08 00:45:34	Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on July 10?	Yes	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0xdf6e46…
07-07 13:30:56	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	SELL	28	23¢	$6	0x59f6f2…
07-07 12:49:02	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	SELL	38	23¢	$9	0x045573…
07-06 22:08:20	will bitcoin dip to 52pt5k in july 2026 976	No	BUY	40	92¢	$37	0xf7e8e7…
07-06 06:45:37	Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on July 10?	Yes	BUY	14	95¢	$13	0xaa6c6e…
07-05 06:33:08	Will Argentina vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	30	21¢	$6	0xf27703…
07-05 06:32:41	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?	Yes	BUY	30	72¢	$22	0x5af184…
07-04 11:41:29	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	160	12¢	$20	0x5bb9ed…
07-04 11:21:01	will bitcoin reach 70k in july 2026	No	BUY	30	76¢	$23	0x475190…
07-04 08:04:29	Will France win on 2026-07-04?	Yes	BUY	30	84¢	$25	0x2de82c…
07-04 08:03:49	Will Paraguay vs. France end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	30	13¢	$4	0x6003d3…
07-01 20:01:38	will bitcoin reach 70k in july 2026	No	SELL	15	85¢	$13	0x562806…
07-01 20:01:14	will bitcoin reach 62pt5k in july 2026	Yes	BUY	10	75¢	$8	0x174459…
07-01 19:50:23	will bitcoin reach 62pt5k in july 2026	Yes	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0xed68de…
07-01 19:43:32	will bitcoin reach 70k in july 2026	No	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0xa561ad…
07-01 19:42:58	will bitcoin reach 70k in july 2026	No	BUY	40	83¢	$33	0xe11d03…
07-01 19:36:25	will bitcoin reach 62pt5k in july 2026	Yes	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x4c3250…
06-26 22:54:47	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in june 2026	No	SELL	12	65¢	$8	0x7c4fb8…
06-26 17:11:16	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in june 2026	No	SELL	2	65¢	$1	0x93d8ee…
06-26 15:59:14	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in june 2026	No	SELL	9	65¢	$6	0x0ca03b…