Waterlogged-Dysfunction — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

90.0%

Resolved

140

Trades

203

lifetime

Volume

$34.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$170

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 11-11 06:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 122 days

Categories

Crypto

91% 94% +$121

Other

9% 71% -$120

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

30 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	3	$631	439	287	+151	No	-$65	10-22 23:35
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	2	$546	274	274	+0	No	+$2	10-17 00:30
bitcoin above 72k on august 22 2026	2	$526	264	264	+0	Yes	$0	08-22 09:34
bitcoin above 68k on august 5 2026	2	$501	252	252	+0	No	+$1	08-05 03:29
will ethereum reach 2300 in july 2026	2	$496	252	252	+0	No	-$2	07-27 10:58
will bitcoin dip to 50k in june 2026	2	$473	239	239	+0	No	-$1	06-24 10:48
bitcoin above 68k on june 7 2026	2	$467	234	234	+0	No	+$1	06-07 03:39
will bitcoin reach 80k june 1 7 2026	3	$465	233	233	+0	No	+$1	06-05 15:39
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 18-24?	2	$464	233	233	+0	No	+$0	05-21 13:54
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 11?	2	$463	232	232	+0	Yes	+$1	05-11 14:31
will the price of bitcoin be less than 64000 on april 17	2	$450	225	225	+0	No	+$0	04-17 14:20
bitcoin above 74k on march 20	2	$380	193	193	+0	No	+$0	03-20 05:42
will the price of bitcoin be less than 64000 on march 11	2	$374	188	188	+0	No	+$2	03-11 07:16
bitcoin above 82k on march 12	2	$373	187	187	+0	No	+$0	03-11 04:52
will the price of bitcoin be between 58000 60000 on march 3	3	$370	186	186	+0	No	+$0	03-03 10:59
bitcoin above 76k on february 25	2	$366	184	184	+0	No	+$0	02-24 06:34
bitcoin above 76k on february 14	2	$356	179	179	+0	No	+$0	02-13 18:44
bitcoin above 74k on february 6	2	$350	178	178	+0	No	+$4	02-06 04:05
bitcoin above 94k on february 4	2	$345	173	173	+0	No	+$0	02-04 04:24
bitcoin above 90k on january 30	2	$338	169	169	+0	No	+$0	01-30 05:59
bitcoin above 100k on january 30	2	$338	169	169	+0	No	+$0	01-30 00:48
bitcoin above 96k on january 23	2	$330	166	166	+0	No	+$1	01-23 02:58
bitcoin above 98k on january 17	2	$327	164	164	+0	No	+$0	01-17 13:55
bitcoin above 94k on january 15	2	$324	164	164	+0	Yes	+$0	01-15 13:02
bitcoin above 100k on january 15	3	$320	164	164	+0	No	+$2	01-15 06:28
bitcoin above 98k on january 14	2	$319	162	162	+0	No	+$0	01-14 13:15
bitcoin above 94k on january 8	7	$319	166	166	+0	No	+$0	01-08 02:01
bitcoin above 96k on january 5	2	$316	160	160	+0	No	+$2	01-05 15:57
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	2	$306	154	154	+0	No	+$2	10-25 15:42
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	2	$304	153	153	+0	No	+$2	10-24 14:26

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-11 06:31:55	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from November 9 to November 11, 2026?	No	SELL	67	44¢	$30	0xea4d31…
11-09 12:40:24	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from November 9 to November 11, 2026?	No	BUY	67	98¢	$66	0xb1bdfe…
11-07 15:14:15	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	No	BUY	66	99¢	$65	0x4276e1…
11-07 09:24:33	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xef9fa9…
11-07 09:23:45	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	No	SELL	65	100¢	$65	0x33748e…
11-05 00:36:12	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	No	BUY	65	100¢	$65	0xc2dba6…
11-02 21:53:54	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	SELL	103	65¢	$67	0x6fe844…
11-01 21:57:39	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	103	98¢	$101	0xb570d3…
10-30 21:47:24	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0xd88889…
10-28 00:40:32	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	162	99¢	$160	0x9d27cf…
10-25 16:34:20	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	106	96¢	$102	0x2277df…
10-25 16:01:54	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	54	96¢	$52	0x0672fd…
10-25 15:42:36	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	154	100¢	$154	0x1d1867…
10-24 14:41:15	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	154	99¢	$152	0xebab18…
10-24 14:26:00	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	SELL	153	100¢	$153	0x05d58f…
10-23 05:22:20	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	153	99¢	$151	0xb2863f…
10-22 23:35:59	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	151	100¢	$151	0x35af43…
10-21 06:41:08	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	SELL	287	72¢	$207	0xb20943…
10-17 00:34:45	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	287	95¢	$273	0x3d197d…
10-17 00:30:50	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	SELL	274	100¢	$274	0x303466…
10-15 12:30:53	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	274	99¢	$272	0x73dd3a…
10-14 06:41:19	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	272	100¢	$271	0x554238…
10-13 05:46:07	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	No	BUY	271	100¢	$270	0x288d76…
10-07 01:32:38	Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 October 5-11?	No	BUY	270	99¢	$268	0x0b829d…
10-02 04:37:26	Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 September 28-October 4?	No	BUY	268	100¢	$267	0xba2f48…
09-25 00:07:53	Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in September?	No	BUY	267	100¢	$266	0xc5d568…
09-22 00:04:25	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on September 23?	Yes	BUY	266	100¢	$266	0x17b60d…
09-20 00:50:45	Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 September 14-20?	No	BUY	266	100¢	$266	0x5ea8ea…
09-17 23:55:43	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on September 19?	Yes	BUY	267	100¢	$266	0x9ab424…
09-14 11:12:48	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on September 15?	Yes	BUY	265	100¢	$265	0x1e0a06…
09-11 23:54:45	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 September 7-13?	No	BUY	266	100¢	$265	0x200b59…
09-08 00:02:09	Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $68,000 on September 9?	No	BUY	265	100¢	$265	0x0b173a…
09-06 00:58:37	Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 August 31-September 6?	No	BUY	265	100¢	$264	0x1600e9…
09-04 00:00:49	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on September 5?	Yes	BUY	264	100¢	$263	0xf2132a…
09-01 01:41:48	bitcoin above 68k on september 2 2026	Yes	BUY	263	100¢	$263	0x24bd4e…
08-22 09:34:07	bitcoin above 72k on august 22 2026	Yes	SELL	264	100¢	$263	0xe86008…
08-22 03:39:39	bitcoin above 72k on august 22 2026	Yes	BUY	264	100¢	$263	0x8827b9…
08-21 00:17:21	bitcoin above 68k on august 21 2026	Yes	BUY	263	100¢	$262	0xb960d8…
08-20 08:57:54	ethereum above 2100 on august 20 2026	Yes	BUY	263	99¢	$259	0x99e701…
08-17 23:54:57	ethereum above 1800 on august 18 2026	Yes	BUY	259	99¢	$258	0xc40782…
08-17 07:13:49	ethereum above 1700 on august 17 2026	Yes	BUY	257	100¢	$257	0xa329c5…
08-14 01:53:28	will bitcoin reach 70k august 10 16 2026	No	BUY	257	99¢	$255	0x9085e8…
08-13 04:03:27	ethereum above 2000 on august 13 2026	No	BUY	255	100¢	$254	0x88056e…
08-11 23:49:48	ethereum above 1700 on august 12 2026	Yes	BUY	254	100¢	$254	0x262b44…
08-11 10:01:01	ethereum above 1700 on august 11 2026	Yes	BUY	254	100¢	$254	0x0b9490…
08-07 00:04:15	will bitcoin reach 70k august 3 9 2026	No	BUY	255	99¢	$252	0xe8efcf…
08-06 06:34:24	ethereum above 1700 on august 6 2026	Yes	BUY	251	100¢	$251	0xbdc334…
08-05 05:56:57	ethereum above 1700 on august 5 2026	Yes	BUY	251	100¢	$251	0x9226c2…
08-05 03:29:08	bitcoin above 68k on august 5 2026	No	SELL	252	100¢	$251	0xc7d04e…
08-03 13:42:02	bitcoin above 68k on august 5 2026	No	BUY	252	99¢	$250	0x1325ef…
08-02 00:05:41	will ethereum reach 2100 july 27 august 2 2026	No	BUY	250	100¢	$249	0xf43ef7…
08-01 04:44:39	ethereum above 1700 on august 1 2026	Yes	BUY	249	99¢	$248	0xa9a18a…
07-30 00:28:56	will bitcoin reach 70k in july 2026	No	BUY	248	100¢	$247	0x949853…
07-28 03:08:45	ethereum above 2100 on july 29 2026	No	BUY	102	100¢	$102	0x03cf44…
07-28 01:54:28	ethereum above 2200 on july 29 2026	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0x582691…
07-28 01:54:12	ethereum above 2300 on july 29 2026	No	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0xfdf330…
07-27 10:58:19	will ethereum reach 2300 in july 2026	No	SELL	252	98¢	$247	0xe3adfb…
07-26 02:05:00	will ethereum reach 2300 in july 2026	No	BUY	252	99¢	$249	0xc5ba37…
07-25 01:37:28	ethereum above 1700 on july 25 2026	Yes	BUY	248	100¢	$248	0xc1d41f…
07-23 02:24:22	ethereum above 1800 on july 23 2026	Yes	BUY	248	99¢	$247	0xf0ee26…
07-22 01:52:25	bitcoin above 62k on july 22 2026	Yes	BUY	247	100¢	$246	0x7a6396…
07-21 06:08:03	bitcoin above 62k on july 21 2026	Yes	BUY	247	100¢	$246	0x4e12cf…
07-20 05:27:13	ethereum above 2000 on july 20 2026	No	BUY	245	99¢	$244	0xe8c74b…
07-18 05:22:34	will ethereum reach 2200 july 13 19 2026	No	BUY	244	100¢	$244	0x10bd69…
07-17 05:39:48	ethereum above 2000 on july 17 2026	No	BUY	243	100¢	$243	0x9ea829…
07-15 01:26:23	ethereum above 1700 on july 16 2026	Yes	BUY	169	100¢	$168	0x8e7991…
07-15 00:30:50	ethereum above 1700 on july 16 2026	Yes	BUY	75	99¢	$75	0x9b41c5…
07-14 01:54:29	will bitcoin dip to 60k on july 13	No	BUY	242	100¢	$241	0xf73f06…
07-13 00:15:40	ethereum above 1600 on july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	241	100¢	$241	0x98b352…
07-12 03:25:43	ethereum above 1700 on july 12 2026	Yes	BUY	241	99¢	$239	0xfd9aba…
07-11 04:45:40	Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on July 11?	No	BUY	238	100¢	$238	0xcbe1b4…
07-10 00:04:28	Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on July 10?	No	BUY	238	100¢	$238	0x574117…
07-08 05:45:53	ethereum above 2000 on july 9 2026	No	BUY	237	100¢	$237	0x63fdd3…
07-02 10:52:28	will bitcoin dip to 46k june 29 july 5 2026	No	BUY	237	100¢	$237	0xf31a8a…
06-24 10:50:59	will bitcoin reach 80k in june 2026	No	BUY	237	100¢	$236	0xc1a1ef…
06-24 10:48:25	will bitcoin dip to 50k in june 2026	No	SELL	239	99¢	$236	0x74db7c…
06-22 12:01:40	will bitcoin dip to 50k in june 2026	No	BUY	239	99¢	$237	0x062231…
06-17 04:46:28	will bitcoin dip to 52k june 15 21 2026	No	BUY	238	100¢	$237	0x8ddb10…
06-12 04:44:54	will bitcoin dip to 50k june 8 14 2026	No	BUY	237	100¢	$236	0xf7e4bf…
06-09 02:18:10	bitcoin above 70k on june 10 2026	No	BUY	236	100¢	$235	0xac468f…
06-07 06:57:48	bitcoin above 58k on june 7 2026 356 993	Yes	BUY	236	99¢	$234	0x2db46f…
06-07 03:39:06	bitcoin above 68k on june 7 2026	No	SELL	234	100¢	$234	0x81065d…
06-06 10:24:45	bitcoin above 68k on june 7 2026	No	BUY	234	100¢	$233	0x459c41…
06-05 15:39:49	will bitcoin reach 80k june 1 7 2026	No	SELL	80	100¢	$80	0x956dc0…
06-05 15:08:36	will bitcoin reach 80k june 1 7 2026	No	SELL	153	100¢	$153	0x4ecec5…
06-02 05:47:08	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 June 1-7?	No	BUY	233	99¢	$232	0xa22390…
05-25 13:11:47	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	No	BUY	232	99¢	$231	0xfa794a…
05-23 01:11:31	Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 18-24?	No	BUY	231	100¢	$230	0x3b90f5…
05-21 13:58:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9AM ET	Up	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0xaf9fcb…
05-21 13:58:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9AM ET	Up	BUY	11	1¢	$0	0x567e5e…
05-21 13:58:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9AM ET	Up	BUY	8	1¢	$0	0x4b17d8…
05-21 13:58:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9AM ET	Up	BUY	26	1¢	$0	0x466326…
05-21 13:57:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9AM ET	Up	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xde3756…
05-21 13:57:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9AM ET	Up	BUY	26	1¢	$0	0xc4436b…
05-21 13:57:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9AM ET	Up	BUY	26	1¢	$0	0xa531d1…
05-21 13:57:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9AM ET	Up	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x2ab45f…
05-21 13:57:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9AM ET	Up	BUY	26	1¢	$0	0x1ed4b9…
05-21 13:57:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9AM ET	Up	BUY	26	1¢	$0	0xf756a4…
05-21 13:57:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9AM ET	Up	BUY	21	1¢	$0	0xc59674…
05-21 13:57:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9AM ET	Up	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0xac70a6…