Careful-Emergence — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$18

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

57.5%

Resolved

111

Trades

280

lifetime

Volume

$1.51K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-30

last 08-31 03:54

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 46 days

Categories

Other

94% 50% -$9

Politics

4% 67% -$11

Tech

2% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?	1	$34	34	0	+34	No	+$0	06-21 16:31
will apple announce an ai charged siri during the wwdc 2026 keynote	2	$30	15	15	+0	Yes	+$0	06-08 21:06
will a claude mythos model be released by june 10 2026 989	2	$29	15	15	+0	Yes	+$1	06-09 17:07
will iran close its airspace by june 11 20260609184136049	2	$28	15	15	+0	No	+$1	06-12 01:58
Will White House post 160-179 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	2	$28	14	14	+0	Yes	+$0	05-26 15:58
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	1	$24	24	0	+24	No	+$0	06-25 12:57
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	2	$24	12	12	+0	Yes	+$0	05-20 01:05
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	1	$23	23	0	+23	No	+$0	06-29 02:48
Will "Drop Dead - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?	2	$22	11	11	+0	Yes	+$0	05-08 13:47
Will Woo Sang-ho win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election?	2	$20	10	10	+0	Yes	+$0	06-04 04:18
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 88°F or higher on May 29?	2	$19	38	0	+38	Yes	+$0	05-29 08:09
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 28?	3	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	06-27 22:01
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 26?	2	$15	30	0	+30	No	$0	06-25 20:47
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 8?	2	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	05-08 17:17
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 13?	2	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	05-12 15:43
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on May 10?	2	$15	30	0	+30	No	$0	05-10 07:43
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 29?	2	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	06-28 18:15
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on May 12?	2	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	05-11 14:30
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 11?	2	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	05-11 11:07
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 25?	4	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	06-24 15:04
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 19?	4	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	06-19 10:06
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on May 7?	6	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	05-07 09:28
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on May 1?	8	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	04-30 18:06
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on May 11?	10	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	05-10 14:20
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on May 8?	2	$14	28	0	+28	No	$0	05-08 23:47
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 21?	2	$14	28	0	+28	No	+$0	06-21 21:12
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on May 15?	2	$14	28	0	+28	Yes	+$0	05-15 06:56
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 28?	2	$14	28	0	+28	No	$0	05-27 16:59
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14?	2	$14	28	0	+28	No	$0	06-14 02:48
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 6?	2	$14	28	0	+28	No	$0	05-06 18:13

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-31 03:54:21	Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be between 300m and 350m by August 31?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x6a418a…
07-04 00:47:01	will aniya harvey be eliminated from love island usa this week 20260626220759014	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x5a0498…
06-29 02:48:58	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xb76331…
06-28 18:15:50	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 29?	Yes	BUY	15	2¢	$0	0x5f69a8…
06-28 17:10:35	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 29?	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0x1b4edc…
06-28 16:14:34	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 29?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x71b197…
06-27 22:01:16	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 28?	Yes	BUY	13	2¢	$0	0x8731a3…
06-27 21:36:01	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 28?	Yes	BUY	2	2¢	$0	0x56aced…
06-27 21:07:22	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 28?	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0xe8aeea…
06-26 23:57:43	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 27?	Yes	BUY	9	1¢	$0	0x6d44e2…
06-26 23:57:04	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 27?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xfa3b53…
06-26 21:28:43	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 27?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0xbc8e1c…
06-25 20:47:02	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 26?	Yes	BUY	15	1¢	$0	0x46f743…
06-25 12:57:05	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x216fd5…
06-25 12:11:02	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 26?	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0xfda9e4…
06-24 15:04:58	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 25?	Yes	BUY	11	1¢	$0	0x9a3d99…
06-24 14:16:01	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 25?	Yes	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0xf85b84…
06-24 13:17:13	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 25?	Yes	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0xc0b312…
06-24 12:04:14	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 25?	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x1aac41…
06-23 12:03:02	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 23?	Yes	BUY	3	2¢	$0	0xbcccf8…
06-23 12:02:16	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 23?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x3b8fd9…
06-23 12:02:10	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 23?	Yes	BUY	4	2¢	$0	0x38d1c5…
06-23 11:30:19	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 23?	No	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0x2ec1e1…
06-22 07:00:53	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22?	No	BUY	12	2¢	$0	0xb10573…
06-22 07:00:22	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22?	Yes	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0x5ed3a4…
06-21 21:12:43	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 21?	Yes	BUY	14	1¢	$0	0xc2ff36…
06-21 16:31:38	Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0x1b0bcb…
06-20 13:47:11	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 21?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x8cc121…
06-19 10:06:53	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 19?	Yes	BUY	0	1¢	$0	0xf4df5f…
06-19 10:04:40	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 19?	Yes	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0xb00261…
06-19 09:30:10	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 19?	Yes	BUY	9	1¢	$0	0xe3288b…
06-19 09:10:13	Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 19?	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x4cf433…
06-17 05:55:04	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 17?	Yes	BUY	6	2¢	$0	0xaa1a35…
06-17 05:55:01	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 17?	Yes	BUY	6	2¢	$0	0xf342d9…
06-17 05:51:04	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 17?	No	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0x731f20…
06-17 05:39:29	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xc1aa67…
06-16 05:37:10	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x054ef4…
06-16 05:36:37	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x94d4fb…
06-16 03:11:51	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16?	No	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0xbaf4de…
06-15 06:25:10	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x61a697…
06-15 04:16:54	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xbf5712…
06-14 02:48:07	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14?	Yes	BUY	14	2¢	$0	0x9a844e…
06-14 01:58:55	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14?	No	BUY	14	98¢	$14	0xf35bbe…
06-13 06:39:43	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13?	No	BUY	12	1¢	$0	0x2309f0…
06-13 06:24:15	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13?	Yes	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0xb88e1d…
06-12 06:28:04	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12?	No	BUY	13	1¢	$0	0x3db02e…
06-12 06:15:57	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12?	Yes	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x41ec66…
06-12 01:58:30	will iran close its airspace by june 11 20260609184136049	No	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0x152ee4…
06-11 11:04:04	will iran close its airspace by june 11 20260609184136049	No	BUY	15	90¢	$14	0xcfde6c…
06-09 17:07:09	will a claude mythos model be released by june 10 2026 989	Yes	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0x629814…
06-09 09:26:40	will a claude mythos model be released by june 10 2026 989	Yes	BUY	15	92¢	$14	0x517062…
06-08 21:06:21	will apple announce an ai charged siri during the wwdc 2026 keynote	Yes	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0xc611ba…
06-08 13:59:22	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 9?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x05909a…
06-08 13:52:30	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 9?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x7b8d77…
06-08 13:25:27	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 9?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x712a9c…
06-07 18:16:03	will apple announce an ai charged siri during the wwdc 2026 keynote	Yes	BUY	15	97¢	$15	0x0f1103…
06-07 08:46:36	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 7?	Yes	BUY	11	1¢	$0	0x486a30…
06-07 07:19:10	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 7?	No	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x43f7cc…
06-06 15:20:25	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 7?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x6f4869…
06-06 15:20:25	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 7?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x3e20a6…
06-06 15:20:25	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 7?	Yes	BUY	4	1¢	$0	0x1363a9…
06-06 15:03:18	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 7?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x848c95…
06-06 08:59:19	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 6?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x1acc3d…
06-06 06:29:10	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 6?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x9476a8…
06-05 22:18:01	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on June 6?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x839926…
06-05 22:18:01	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on June 6?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x4bf1a3…
06-05 12:05:48	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on June 6?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x27997c…
06-05 00:05:54	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 5?	Yes	BUY	11	1¢	$0	0x3e9172…
06-04 23:58:43	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 5?	No	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0xab1ab1…
06-04 07:02:06	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on June 4?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xaae3da…
06-04 06:57:58	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on June 4?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x2ae6f3…
06-04 04:18:25	Will Woo Sang-ho win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x564811…
06-03 10:00:26	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 3?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xe5ec0b…
06-03 04:00:35	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 3?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xa915a7…
06-02 15:50:53	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 3?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x7d1689…
06-02 15:17:12	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 3?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x718e32…
06-02 12:04:46	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 3?	No	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x42607c…
06-02 01:37:42	Will Woo Sang-ho win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election?	Yes	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xa8c97a…
06-01 15:04:14	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on June 2?	Yes	BUY	14	1¢	$0	0x74f745…
06-01 12:08:51	Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on June 2?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0xa82cb3…
05-31 23:06:59	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 1?	Yes	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0xc53f8c…
05-31 23:06:03	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 1?	Yes	BUY	6	2¢	$0	0x04d094…
05-31 23:05:53	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 1?	Yes	BUY	6	2¢	$0	0xb17032…
05-31 22:28:52	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 1?	No	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0xa6c5b4…
05-31 16:23:40	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 1?	Yes	BUY	3	1¢	$0	0xd156b9…
05-31 16:23:40	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 1?	Yes	BUY	4	1¢	$0	0xbf19f5…
05-31 16:23:40	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 1?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x2278e2…
05-31 12:04:07	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 1?	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0xae3fd8…
05-30 19:39:06	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 31?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xf8d069…
05-30 19:39:06	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 31?	Yes	BUY	4	2¢	$0	0x310a24…
05-30 19:39:01	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 31?	Yes	BUY	4	2¢	$0	0x0cbfd3…
05-30 18:25:15	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 31?	No	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0x3c85c9…
05-30 07:26:08	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on May 30?	Yes	BUY	14	2¢	$0	0x71028e…
05-30 06:44:24	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on May 30?	No	BUY	14	98¢	$14	0x7a7fba…
05-29 08:09:35	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 88°F or higher on May 29?	No	BUY	19	1¢	$0	0x72e256…
05-29 07:57:41	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 88°F or higher on May 29?	Yes	BUY	19	99¢	$19	0x7fd88b…
05-29 05:02:22	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on May 29?	Yes	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0x8e99c6…
05-29 05:02:16	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on May 29?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x52dbc8…
05-29 01:59:52	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 29?	Yes	BUY	11	2¢	$0	0x17dc71…
05-29 01:45:13	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 29?	No	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0xc5f263…