Outrageous-Butter — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$548

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

68.3%

Resolved

Trades

1,435

lifetime

Volume

$125.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$87

Open exposure

$11

1 position

First seen

2026-02-19

last 07-20 10:43

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Other

71% — —

Crypto

28% 58% $-548

Politics

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

23 active days in 12wk • peak 36 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+59	$10	18¢	$11	+$1	07-15 21:59

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	8	$6.3K	3,308	3,308	-0	open	—	04-27 19:46
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?	7	$5.7K	2,983	2,983	+0	open	—	04-25 14:07
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	6	$3.9K	2,067	2,067	+0	open	—	04-28 09:02
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	2	$3.3K	1,663	1,663	+0	open	—	04-27 22:51
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?	11	$3.2K	1,732	1,730	+2	open	—	04-25 00:44
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?	3	$2.9K	1,527	1,526	+1	open	—	04-27 15:36
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?	7	$2.7K	1,413	1,452	-39	open	—	04-27 02:29
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?	3	$2.7K	1,376	1,376	+0	open	—	04-25 15:43
elon musk of tweets april 11 april 13 140 164	8	$2.6K	1,515	1,515	+0	open	—	04-12 22:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	2	$2.6K	1,323	1,321	+2	open	—	04-25 14:20
elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 220 239	3	$2.6K	1,303	1,302	+1	open	—	04-24 15:12
elon musk of tweets april 20 april 22 90 114	4	$2.4K	1,218	1,218	+0	open	—	04-22 15:46
elon musk of tweets april 6 april 8 115 139	10	$2.4K	1,231	1,229	+1	open	—	04-08 08:47
btc updown 5m 1776849000	3	$2.4K	1,225	1,220	+6	open	—	04-22 09:15
elon musk of tweets april 20 april 22 0 39	10	$2.3K	1,433	1,429	+4	open	—	04-22 05:09
btc updown 5m 1776835500	2	$2.2K	1,169	1,159	+10	open	—	04-22 05:30
elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 260 279	6	$2.1K	1,108	1,108	+0	open	—	04-24 00:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	20	$2.1K	1,100	1,100	+0	open	—	05-01 12:05
elon musk of tweets april 3 april 10 280 299	5	$2.0K	1,020	1,020	+0	open	—	04-10 09:11
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	3	$1.7K	1,709	0	+1,709	open	—	04-28 10:41
elon musk of tweets april 13 april 15 65 89	6	$1.6K	917	912	+4	open	—	04-15 07:01
elon musk of tweets april 11 april 13 115 139	27	$1.6K	1,891	1,871	+20	open	—	04-13 10:35
elon musk of tweets april 4 april 6 0 39	7	$1.5K	793	793	+0	open	—	04-05 18:54
elon musk of tweets april 4 april 6 90 114	4	$1.5K	799	796	+3	open	—	04-06 16:25
elon musk of tweets march 28 march 30 0 39	17	$1.5K	821	821	+0	open	—	03-30 01:00
btc updown 5m 1776504300	4	$1.4K	780	774	+6	open	—	04-18 09:30
elon musk of tweets april 9 april 11 90 114	6	$1.4K	704	704	+0	open	—	04-11 15:51
elon musk of tweets april 9 april 11 115 139	3	$1.4K	694	694	+0	open	—	04-11 08:41
elon musk of tweets april 11 april 13 90 114	4	$1.4K	856	773	+83	open	—	04-13 00:28
elon musk of tweets april 2 april 4 140 164	7	$1.4K	704	702	+2	open	—	04-04 13:21

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-20 10:43:54	btc updown 5m 1784544000	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xfc84b2…
07-19 21:43:31	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Spain	SELL	9	92¢	$9	0x0308c9…
07-19 21:02:39	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 penalty shootout	No	SELL	30	63¢	$19	0x6596b6…
07-19 10:26:57	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 team to advance	Spain	BUY	9	59¢	$5	0xa603aa…
07-19 10:22:34	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 penalty shootout	No	BUY	30	80¢	$24	0x348374…
07-18 23:02:16	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 penalty shootout	No	SELL	67	100¢	$67	0xf12d5a…
07-18 21:21:39	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 penalty shootout	No	BUY	12	88¢	$11	0x88698f…
07-18 21:09:42	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 penalty shootout	No	BUY	55	92¢	$51	0xad3740…
07-18 14:16:54	will bitcoin reach 85000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	Yes	BUY	15	21¢	$3	0x0724af…
07-18 13:18:51	will bitcoin reach 80000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	Yes	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0x59ee12…
07-18 12:15:21	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 penalty shootout	No	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0x53f043…
07-18 12:02:48	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 penalty shootout	No	SELL	136	89¢	$121	0x68a8b6…
07-18 05:51:33	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 penalty shootout	No	BUY	137	87¢	$119	0x8efe91…
07-17 20:17:54	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 penalty shootout	No	SELL	59	87¢	$52	0xd7f6fd…
07-17 16:33:57	will bitcoin reach 80000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	Yes	BUY	9	30¢	$3	0xee8c1f…
07-16 23:29:11	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 penalty shootout	No	SELL	59	86¢	$51	0x9b3fd4…
07-16 21:40:14	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 penalty shootout	No	BUY	62	88¢	$54	0xcc0cac…
07-16 13:38:31	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 penalty shootout	No	BUY	57	88¢	$50	0x1a8f4c…
07-15 21:59:08	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	59	17¢	$10	0x19a7f3…
07-15 21:59:05	will bitcoin reach 85000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	Yes	BUY	38	26¢	$10	0x58c376…
07-15 21:58:52	will bitcoin reach 80000 by december 31 2026 from june 8	Yes	BUY	29	34¢	$10	0x0e1732…
07-15 20:41:17	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 penalty shootout	No	SELL	54	84¢	$45	0xd71d4b…
07-15 20:34:43	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 team to advance	Argentina	SELL	47	23¢	$11	0x6bd5ed…
07-14 21:19:26	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	43	46¢	$20	0xc807b5…
07-13 23:34:31	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 penalty shootout	No	BUY	54	81¢	$44	0x94b4bf…
07-13 20:47:22	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0xbe3451…
07-13 20:27:53	btc updown 5m 1783974300	Down	BUY	22	23¢	$5	0xd3d9f3…
07-12 03:02:16	fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	32	74¢	$24	0x70fe28…
07-12 02:53:55	fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 penalty shootout	No	SELL	28	70¢	$20	0x2c6bd3…
07-11 23:51:14	fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 penalty shootout	No	BUY	28	84¢	$24	0x654cb5…
07-11 23:26:23	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 team to advance	Norway	SELL	8	10¢	$1	0x13ad7f…
07-11 23:19:25	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 team to advance	Norway	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x6a25b8…
07-11 23:17:10	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 extra time	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x6e30b4…
07-11 22:36:25	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 extra time	Yes	BUY	10	53¢	$5	0xe93b1c…
06-11 18:31:15	btc updown 5m 1781202600	Down	SELL	54	25¢	$14	0x109af9…
06-11 18:30:27	btc updown 5m 1781202600	Down	BUY	54	46¢	$25	0x18426e…
06-11 18:25:24	btc updown 5m 1781202000	Down	SELL	36	99¢	$36	0xc4b99c…
06-11 18:23:58	btc updown 5m 1781202000	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x55bfbd…
06-11 18:23:54	btc updown 5m 1781202000	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x46ab1a…
06-11 18:23:33	btc updown 5m 1781202000	Down	BUY	26	97¢	$25	0x1c3a41…
06-10 13:03:39	btc updown 5m 1781096400	Down	SELL	30	92¢	$28	0x344ef6…
06-10 13:03:07	btc updown 5m 1781096400	Down	BUY	30	82¢	$25	0x57bcea…
06-10 12:58:01	btc updown 5m 1781096100	Down	SELL	62	60¢	$38	0x7146e5…
06-10 12:57:13	btc updown 5m 1781096100	Down	BUY	62	40¢	$25	0xb20375…
06-05 19:39:42	btc updown 5m 1780688100	Up	SELL	98	98¢	$96	0x7a7347…
06-05 19:39:06	btc updown 5m 1780688100	Up	BUY	34	74¢	$25	0x7ea269…
06-05 19:39:06	btc updown 5m 1780688100	Up	BUY	32	78¢	$25	0x572618…
06-05 19:39:06	btc updown 5m 1780688100	Up	BUY	32	78¢	$25	0x275535…
06-05 19:38:10	btc updown 5m 1780688100	Up	SELL	85	73¢	$62	0xcaeeff…
06-05 19:37:31	btc updown 5m 1780688100	Up	BUY	43	58¢	$25	0x78ea96…
06-05 19:37:31	btc updown 5m 1780688100	Up	BUY	42	59¢	$25	0x37a132…
06-05 19:35:10	btc updown 5m 1780687800	Down	SELL	50	99¢	$50	0x5ba745…
06-05 19:33:54	btc updown 5m 1780687800	Down	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0xf3c691…
06-05 19:33:54	btc updown 5m 1780687800	Down	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0xa9c7ea…
06-05 19:33:21	btc updown 5m 1780687800	Up	SELL	1,051	4¢	$37	0xe53ec1…
06-05 19:33:00	btc updown 5m 1780687800	Up	BUY	500	5¢	$25	0x08746a…
06-05 19:32:58	btc updown 5m 1780687800	Up	BUY	551	5¢	$25	0x450693…
05-11 01:50:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET	Up	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x262a7f…
05-11 00:37:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Up	BUY	106	79¢	$84	0xc3e604…
05-11 00:29:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Up	BUY	15	2¢	$0	0xd3739c…
05-11 00:29:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Up	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x99b1db…
05-11 00:23:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Up	SELL	92	94¢	$86	0xe532b0…
05-11 00:23:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Up	BUY	92	74¢	$68	0x96d5d2…
05-11 00:17:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Down	SELL	78	89¢	$70	0xabb72b…
05-11 00:17:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Down	BUY	78	80¢	$63	0xc6dc90…
05-11 00:12:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	SELL	99	66¢	$65	0x0532a4…
05-11 00:10:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	99	38¢	$38	0xdca4dc…
05-11 00:09:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	SELL	40	98¢	$39	0x91586b…
05-11 00:08:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	BUY	40	92¢	$37	0x4dd836…
05-11 00:08:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	SELL	37	97¢	$36	0x9a9cff…
05-11 00:07:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	BUY	37	91¢	$34	0x332182…
05-11 00:04:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Down	SELL	36	99¢	$35	0xf197a2…
05-11 00:04:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Down	BUY	36	95¢	$34	0x5fdc77…
05-11 00:03:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Up	SELL	157	23¢	$36	0x76f811…
05-11 00:02:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Up	BUY	157	64¢	$100	0x58acf5…
05-10 23:58:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Down	SELL	10	80¢	$8	0xbf5410…
05-10 23:58:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Down	SELL	5	80¢	$4	0x825a96…
05-10 23:58:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Down	SELL	20	80¢	$16	0x041804…
05-10 23:58:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Down	SELL	35	80¢	$28	0x65336d…
05-10 23:58:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Down	SELL	40	80¢	$32	0x352b58…
05-10 23:57:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	110	74¢	$81	0x79da33…
05-10 23:52:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	SELL	25	90¢	$23	0x6ce201…
05-10 23:52:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	SELL	30	90¢	$27	0x8ec820…
05-10 23:52:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	SELL	8	90¢	$7	0x2c9fb3…
05-10 23:52:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	SELL	2	90¢	$2	0xc55579…
05-10 23:52:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	SELL	8	90¢	$7	0x80fe88…
05-10 23:52:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	SELL	22	90¢	$20	0x956153…
05-10 23:52:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	SELL	11	90¢	$10	0x53b431…
05-10 23:52:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Down	BUY	107	80¢	$86	0x1e87a6…
05-10 23:49:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	SELL	84	99¢	$83	0xf98f84…
05-10 23:49:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	BUY	84	95¢	$80	0xf6430b…
05-10 23:47:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	SELL	101	84¢	$85	0x8be38b…
05-10 23:45:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Down	BUY	101	68¢	$69	0x23067c…
05-10 22:40:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Down	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0xf00eac…
05-10 22:39:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Down	BUY	76	97¢	$74	0xf420e9…
05-10 22:39:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET	Down	BUY	24	97¢	$23	0xa90bbd…
05-10 22:32:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET	Down	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x6f2036…
05-10 22:27:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	SELL	13	98¢	$13	0x15596c…
05-10 22:27:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x2f5777…
05-10 22:27:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0x17c9f4…