Unacceptable-Hypothesis — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$65

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

70.3%

Resolved

206

Trades

409

lifetime

Volume

$22.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$54

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 10-29 09:02

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 59 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 30% -$26

Other

0% 9% -$26

Politics

0% 0% -$13

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

23 active days in 12wk • peak 22 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-08 10:15 UTC	3	$2.0K	1,637	1,614	+22	Down	+$780	02-08 10:22
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-08 09:45 UTC	3	$1.9K	2,375	2,341	+34	Down	+$7	02-08 09:59
ethereum above 2100 on february 8	2	$1.6K	1,417	1,417	+0	No	+$653	02-08 16:45
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-10 14:45 UTC	2	$1.2K	1,562	1,544	+18	Up	+$182	02-10 14:51
bitcoin above 82k on january 31	9	$1.0K	1,543	1,543	+0	No	+$759	01-31 16:33
bitcoin above 72k on february 11	2	$970	6,678	6,678	+0	No	-$916	02-11 07:16
bitcoin above 78k on february 1	17	$824	1,332	1,384	-52	No	+$322	02-01 16:58
bitcoin above 78k on february 2	6	$687	1,123	1,123	+0	Yes	+$97	02-02 16:37
bitcoin above 68k on february 10	5	$645	1,740	1,281	+459	Yes	-$228	02-10 15:18
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-07 11:00 UTC	2	$612	637	628	+9	Down	+$139	02-07 11:03
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-08 18:15 UTC	8	$554	787	779	+8	Up	+$132	02-08 18:29
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-08 15:15 UTC	2	$540	1,366	1,347	+18	Down	-$460	02-08 15:25
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-07 08:15 UTC	2	$503	376	370	+6	Up	+$88	02-07 08:20
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-07 10:45 UTC	3	$458	532	408	+124	Up	+$89	02-07 10:53
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-10 14:00 UTC	4	$455	1,262	1,258	+4	Up	+$116	02-10 14:13
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-16 12:35 UTC	3	$448	644	466	+177	Up	-$123	02-16 12:39
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-08 17:15 UTC	6	$397	390	386	+4	Down	+$180	02-08 17:30
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-07 09:45 UTC	2	$330	247	244	+3	Up	+$156	02-07 10:00
ethereum above 2500 on january 31	2	$317	338	338	+0	No	+$256	01-31 16:54
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-07 08:00 UTC	3	$312	325	321	+4	Up	+$117	02-07 08:06
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-08 10:00 UTC	2	$304	1,234	0	+1,234	Up	-$304	02-08 10:02
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-10 14:15 UTC	2	$294	656	648	+9	Up	-$152	02-10 14:24
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-08 14:30 UTC	3	$270	404	228	+176	Down	+$73	02-08 14:42
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-07 11:15 UTC	2	$235	232	230	+2	Down	+$107	02-07 11:25
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-07 14:30 UTC	1	$223	675	0	+675	Down	-$223	02-07 14:35
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-07 16:30 UTC	4	$217	342	209	+133	Up	+$10	02-07 16:44
bitcoin above 70k on february 16	4	$192	489	489	+0	No	+$68	02-16 12:31
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-10 06:30 UTC	2	$175	140	138	+2	Down	+$73	02-10 06:41
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-07 07:00 UTC	2	$162	151	149	+2	Down	+$80	02-07 07:07
ethereum above 2900 on january 29	3	$159	146	146	+0	No	+$119	01-29 15:51

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 09:02:58	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on October 29?	No	BUY	7	24¢	$2	0xd18e83…
10-29 09:02:16	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 29?	No	SELL	51	3¢	$2	0x7f3a6c…
10-29 02:32:46	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 29?	Yes	SELL	21	1¢	$0	0x88fea7…
10-28 11:41:49	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 29?	Yes	BUY	21	7¢	$1	0x176a43…
10-28 11:41:34	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 29?	No	BUY	51	4¢	$2	0xfd7fc2…
10-24 21:03:14	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 25?	No	BUY	9	28¢	$3	0xe7500f…
10-24 20:55:24	Eastern Michigan vs. Ohio	Eastern Michigan	BUY	11	19¢	$2	0x869f65…
10-24 12:33:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Down	BUY	40	5¢	$2	0x6eb182…
10-24 12:21:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Down	SELL	13	17¢	$2	0x6e99c6…
10-24 12:20:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Down	BUY	13	15¢	$2	0x332ee4…
10-24 12:13:00	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 24?	No	SELL	47	5¢	$2	0xe71533…
10-23 03:45:03	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 24?	No	BUY	47	10¢	$5	0xffd869…
10-20 12:50:24	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 21?	No	BUY	23	14¢	$3	0x63d857…
10-20 12:47:53	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 21?	No	SELL	158	2¢	$4	0x4a6c7c…
10-20 09:32:33	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 21?	No	BUY	158	3¢	$5	0xcd7aea…
10-09 13:58:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-09 13:55 UTC	Up	BUY	24	17¢	$4	0x18e9f8…
10-09 13:56:12	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-09 13:45 UTC	Up	SELL	5	82¢	$4	0xf6c6f6…
10-09 13:55:01	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-09 13:45 UTC	Up	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0x185f31…
10-09 13:52:42	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 9?	No	SELL	21	17¢	$4	0x2513be…
10-09 08:44:10	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 9?	No	BUY	21	23¢	$5	0x96d0cf…
10-07 13:27:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x935be7…
10-07 13:26:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Up	SELL	15	12¢	$2	0xbe9db7…
10-07 13:19:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0x87b024…
10-07 13:00:07	Shanghai Rolex Masters: Mattia Bellucci vs Yi Zhou	Yi Zhou	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xb37308…
10-07 12:23:16	Shanghai Rolex Masters: Mattia Bellucci vs Yi Zhou	Yi Zhou	BUY	10	30¢	$3	0xef1488…
10-07 08:39:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	15	47¢	$7	0x711f5e…
10-07 08:37:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Down	SELL	18	41¢	$7	0xf74b03…
10-07 08:35:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	18	21¢	$4	0x64efcf…
10-07 08:34:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x3b6e38…
10-07 08:33:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	BUY	4	78¢	$3	0x43bd45…
10-07 08:33:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	SELL	6	58¢	$3	0x93f8b7…
10-07 08:32:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0xbf8025…
10-07 08:31:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	SELL	5	52¢	$3	0x78e847…
10-07 08:30:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x33832d…
10-07 08:29:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Up	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x86793c…
10-07 08:28:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x4ca2d6…
10-07 08:27:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Down	SELL	6	13¢	$1	0xb9826f…
10-07 08:26:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0xce8115…
10-07 08:23:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Down	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0xbfe59a…
10-07 08:20:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Down	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0xb36966…
10-07 08:18:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Down	SELL	7	96¢	$7	0x51b9bb…
10-07 08:17:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Down	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0x8c493a…
10-06 15:49:33	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 6?	Yes	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0x4e02c8…
10-06 15:36:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Up	SELL	8	18¢	$1	0x37d7ce…
10-06 15:35:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Up	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xcef890…
10-06 15:25:03	Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-10-06?	Yes	SELL	32	4¢	$1	0x132d15…
10-06 14:32:47	Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-10-06?	Yes	BUY	32	17¢	$5	0xef4bc5…
10-06 14:26:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	SELL	6	100¢	$6	0x39ff91…
10-06 14:23:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Down	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x67cd43…
10-06 14:21:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Up	SELL	17	7¢	$1	0x7b9b65…
10-06 14:17:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	17	16¢	$3	0x00cd98…
10-04 16:11:01	Will Malta vs. Andorra end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	8	28¢	$2	0x92741f…
10-04 16:10:41	Will Andorra win on 2026-10-04?	Yes	BUY	50	12¢	$6	0x287983…
10-04 15:11:58	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-04 15:00 UTC	Up	SELL	10	83¢	$9	0xaff022…
10-04 15:08:40	ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-04 15:00 UTC	Up	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x246061…
10-03 16:54:39	Will Iceland vs. Bulgaria end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	13	15¢	$2	0xb49d5f…
10-03 16:54:14	Will Bulgaria win on 2026-10-03?	Yes	BUY	65	3¢	$2	0xc6016b…
10-02 13:08:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	91	27¢	$25	0x79864d…
10-02 13:06:27	Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 on October 2?	No	SELL	41	65¢	$27	0x29b548…
10-02 13:05:53	Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 on October 2?	No	BUY	41	67¢	$27	0x9c1eae…
10-02 12:54:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	SELL	28	99¢	$28	0x4ac744…
10-02 12:53:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Up	BUY	28	82¢	$23	0xbf5b20…
10-02 12:50:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	SELL	113	22¢	$25	0x1df5a9…
10-02 12:48:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 2, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	113	16¢	$18	0xb73b18…
10-02 12:38:18	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on October 2?	Yes	SELL	174	12¢	$20	0x39fd26…
10-02 10:33:51	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on October 2?	Yes	BUY	174	9¢	$16	0xfac313…
10-02 10:33:29	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 2?	No	SELL	525	3¢	$18	0x678b06…
10-02 06:12:08	bitcoin above 84k on october 2 2026	No	BUY	525	9¢	$47	0xa4a89e…
10-01 15:48:21	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 1?	Yes	SELL	154	65¢	$100	0x41ccd3…
10-01 15:48:11	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 1?	Yes	SELL	6	74¢	$4	0x0c94d7…
10-01 15:43:56	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 1?	Yes	BUY	160	32¢	$51	0xa65d94…
09-29 15:18:30	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-29 15:15 UTC	Up	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0xe17fc1…
09-29 15:15:56	bitcoin above 90k on october 3 2026	Yes	SELL	102	2¢	$2	0xf422f1…
09-28 16:12:29	bitcoin above 90k on october 3 2026	Yes	BUY	102	4¢	$4	0xf65a25…
09-26 16:06:09	Will Estonia win on 2026-09-26?	Yes	BUY	28	8¢	$2	0x81dbcf…
09-26 15:51:18	bitcoin above 84k on september 26 2026	No	SELL	42	6¢	$3	0xe96139…
09-26 15:35:36	bitcoin above 84k on september 26 2026	No	BUY	42	7¢	$3	0x349e9b…
09-24 15:44:38	Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on September 24?	Yes	BUY	65	5¢	$3	0xfffe65…
09-22 14:24:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	379	1¢	$4	0x340afb…
09-18 10:58:33	Ethereum Up or Down - September 18, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	90	3¢	$3	0x8379fc…
09-17 14:20:22	Afghanistan Tour of India T20s: India vs Afghanistan	Afghanistan	BUY	181	3¢	$5	0x8e22a3…
09-17 13:53:00	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on September 17?	No	SELL	395	0¢	$0	0x5eb336…
09-15 07:20:34	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on September 17?	No	BUY	395	5¢	$19	0x99c6da…
09-13 23:39:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xfe3003…
09-13 23:31:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Down	SELL	27	4¢	$1	0x48ff9b…
09-13 23:30:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET	Down	BUY	27	11¢	$3	0x04a00b…
09-13 22:58:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Up	SELL	33	10¢	$3	0x0fe422…
09-13 22:56:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Up	BUY	33	6¢	$2	0xe39d32…
09-13 22:53:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET	Down	BUY	18	6¢	$1	0x1d1e49…
09-13 15:06:10	Ethereum Up or Down - September 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	95	4¢	$4	0x126f6f…
09-13 14:05:39	Will Coventry City FC win on 2026-09-13?	Yes	BUY	50	9¢	$5	0x494454…
09-13 13:20:00	Ethereum Up or Down - September 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	97	9¢	$9	0x6be1e4…
09-13 12:40:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	388	2¢	$9	0xe525e7…
09-13 12:33:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	BUY	345	4¢	$14	0x2def0f…
09-13 11:48:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Up	SELL	132	12¢	$16	0xb4e27d…
09-13 11:48:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Up	BUY	132	7¢	$9	0x418753…
09-13 09:35:54	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-13 09:35 UTC	Down	BUY	129	7¢	$9	0x36e92f…
09-13 09:07:24	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-13 09:05 UTC	Down	SELL	38	19¢	$7	0xd2ce36…
09-13 09:07:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-13 09:05 UTC	Down	BUY	38	6¢	$2	0x493dfe…
09-13 08:48:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 13, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Down	BUY	321	3¢	$10	0x9862c3…